Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government whether they plan to review the tax information and impact note, Private School Fees – VAT Measure, published on 15 November 2024, given that pupil losses in the independent school sector have already exceeded the level forecast for the 2029/30 school year.

Introducing VAT on private schools will raise £1.7 billion per year by 2029/30. Since the VAT measure on private school fees has come into effect, the Office for Budget Responsibility has continued to re-cost the revenue raised each year. At Autumn Budget 2025 the re-costing of the measure showed it will raise around £40 million per year more than originally forecast, reaffirming the detailed analysis conducted when this policy was introduced.

The overall fall in private school pupil numbers since the policy came into effect is in line with expectations and reflects demographic change across the whole school system, not the VAT policy alone. We have seen pupil numbers fall across primary, secondary, and independent schools alike. This is primarily driven by falling birth rates, following a peak in 2012, as cohorts move through secondary school age and smaller year groups enter primary.