Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact of (1) current social distancing measures on GDP, and (2) the impending recession referred to by the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the Economic Affairs Committee on 19 May, on GDP. [T]

HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the economy or public finances.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts of the economy and public finances. On 14 April the OBR published a reference scenario assessing the potential impact of coronavirus. In this scenario GDP is assumed to fall by 35 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 before recovering in subsequent quarters. The OBR note that the Government’s policy response should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances.