Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Markham on 14 February (HL5363), what data they are utilising (1) to monitor emerging COVID-19 variants, and (2) to assess their potential impact; and what specific surveillance arrangements are in place to assist this assessment.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) undertakes regular monitoring of United Kingdom and international SARS-CoV-2 genomic data to detect and characterise new variants. In the UK, this includes data from routine testing and surveillance studies, with variant evaluation currently based on data from multiple sources. UK genomics surveillance is primarily conducted through healthcare associated sites such as hospitals and Office for National Statistics community sampling, with international data being obtained from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data which includes genetic sequence and related clinical and epidemiological data.

The potential impact is considered first based on the relative fitness advantage (the lineage growth rate), national and international geographic dispersion, and/or mutation profile in relation to immune response or therapeutic efficacy, using genomic sequence data. Analysis is discussed at multidisciplinary expert meetings where further laboratory virology investigations can be triggered to add confidence to the risk assessment.

UKHSA is utilising strong surveillance capabilities, rooted in the highest-quality data systems, data architecture and analytics to anticipate, prepare for and respond to health risks, including emerging COVID-19 variants. UKHSA is currently working with the Department to consider next steps for the future of surveillance programmes.