Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the number of potential additional deaths during any reasonable worst case scenario of a peak in COVID-19 infections during the winter period resulting from continued disruption of routine treatment for non-COVID-19 patients.

The Government has undertaken no specific assessment. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies reviewed a paper on direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity in July, which provides a scenario-based estimate for additional deaths that may result from the changes necessary to routine care during the first six months of the pandemic. A copy of the paper is attached.