Question to the Department for Business and Trade:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the Department for Business and Trade annual report and accounts 2023 to 2024, published on 24 April (HC 391), what evidence supports the decision to reduce the estimated 9.7 per cent fraud and error incidence rate in the Bounce Back Loan Scheme to 6.8 per cent; and whether the assumption that 29.8 per cent of fraudulently obtained loans will be repaid is consistent with observed repayment behaviour for loans confirmed as fraudulent.

On 30 January, the Department for Business and Trade published its annual report and accounts for 2023/2024.

The report states that the “fraud and error incidence rate” in the Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) has increased from 8.0% at 31 March 2023 to 9.7% at 31 March 2024.

There is no published figure for the expected repayment of loans where fraud is suspected. However, the 6.8% figure quoted in the question represents an estimate of “expected lifetime fraud and error loss”. This is based on the observable behaviour of a statistically representative sample.