Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government to what extent the rise in employers' National Insurance contributions contributed to the loss of 69,000 hospitality jobs since last October, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics, and how this compares with their initial estimates of sector specific job losses before implementing the rise.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer National Insurance contributions (NICs). The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.

The Office for Budget Responsibility also published the Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances.

With all policies considered, the OBR's March 2025 EFO forecasts the employment level to increase from 33.6 million in 2024 to 34.8 million in 2029.

The Government protected the smallest businesses from the changes to employer NICs by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that this year, 865,000 employers will pay no NICs at all, and more than half of all employers will either gain or will see no change.