Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the ratio of dependents, young and old, to the working age population (dependency ratio); and the risk to the long-term economic sustainability of the public finances posed by an ageing population and a declining birth rate.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the Government's official forecaster responsible for assessing the UK economic and fiscal outlook. Its annual publication the Fiscal Risks and Sustainability (FRS) report incorporates biennial long-term projections and analysis of major potential fiscal risks.

In their July 2025 FRS report, the OBR identified that the ageing of the UK population and the associated decline in average health as risks to the UK’s fiscal outlook. Both are expected to increase health spending pressures over the longer-term, with the projected rise in spending on the state pension being the second-largest increase in non-interest spending after health in the OBR’s long-term projections. These are underpinned by OBR judgements on old-age and young-age dependency ratios.

In the last Autumn Budget, the government set out a clear fiscal strategy to stabilise the public finances and underpin growth. This involved introducing new fiscal rules which provide stability, put the public finances on a sustainable path and ensure our public services are sustainably funded.