Budget Resolutions

Chris Leslie Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

I always think that it is worth trying to find a few small mercies at the beginning of a Budget analysis, as the Chancellor has gone to the trouble of making an hour-long speech, so there must be a few things in it. I am glad to see some changes—or mitigating factors—with the announcement on universal credit, but it will still have a big impact on many of our constituents, as my hon. Friend the Member for Chesterfield (Toby Perkins) pointed out in his question about the impact on the severely disabled during Prime Minister’s questions.

I am glad that the Budget contains some changes that might help with housing, although Nottingham City Council is concerned that many of the funds announced will involve competitive bidding processes. It is also concerned that the relaxation of the housing revenue account cap may be for only areas of high demand, so it is not clear that it will necessarily cover cities outside London. Of course, the 70% discount on council house sales remains, so even if more stock is built, it may be quickly depleted. I am particularly disappointed that the Chancellor did not mention social care at all. It beggars belief that although there was some discussion of the NHS, the big issue of social care, which is a strategic block for many problems in the NHS, was just disregarded. We need to return to that point in the later days of this debate.

We can step back, think strategically and ask, “What is the story of this Budget?” The answer is in the stark and depressing statistics and figures in the Treasury Red Book, which show an enormous downgrade in economic growth, with dreadful figures for all the years from hereon in. We are waving goodbye to 2% growth, because growth is henceforth below those levels. There is a big downgrade in productivity—the biggest, in fact, since the OBR was created. There is also the big broken promise over the deficit, which now stretches until 2022 and beyond. We were promised on many occasions that we would have a budget surplus, but the chance for that seems long gone. Why is this the case? It is fundamentally because the dark clouds and cold winds of Brexit loom large and are already being felt.

Any analysis of our economic outlook or fiscal prospects cannot possible ignore the Brexit question. The impact on business investment is being felt because uncertainty over trade and tariffs is holding firms back from putting money into things that would otherwise help to create productivity. The lack of productivity has fed into the growth downgrade, which in turn has created a big hole in the forecasts for Treasury revenues, which we need to pay for schools, hospitals, transport schemes and all our other vital public services.

The Bank of England’s decision-maker panel’s expectations for business investment are getting worse, quarter after quarter, looking into the future. We can see the negative effect of the clouds of Brexit on business investment and productivity. Look at the impact of sterling’s devaluation compared with the exchange rate index—it is 17.5% lower than at it was at its peak in November 2015. That has hit all our constituents in their pockets to a significant degree, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimating that it has cost each household around £600. It is already hitting households with reductions in the real available incomes at their disposal.

We still have no idea about a transition status and what might happen after the fabled cliff edge in March 2019. The impact of uncertainty is likely to cast a shadow for many years to come. I hope that we will get some resolution at the European Council meeting before Christmas, but that seems to be quite a tall order.

When we look at what is perhaps the biggest issue—the fiscal impact—we see that £3 billion has been committed for Brexit preparations. What a waste of resources! That money should have been invested in our health service, in our schools and in other public services. In fact, more money has been committed for Brexit preparations in 2019 than has been committed for extra resources for the NHS. If anything sums up the dysfunction of this whole scenario, it is that statistic. And of course this is all before we have even seen the massive divorce bill. The £350 million a week for the NHS that we saw on the side of the big red bus has long gone. The OBR’s forecast document says that the divorce bill could be £67 billion. That is the equivalent of two years’-worth of budget deficit rolled together, and presumably it will be added on to the national debt.

Table 1.2 on page 17 of the Treasury’s Red Book shows a triple whammy—the real kick of Brexit’s impact on our public services. It shows an enormous downgrade in revenues. It forecasts £8 billion less in receipts for 2019, £13 billion less for 2020, and £20 billion less for 2021. Those enormous figures really ought to be a wake-up call not only for the Government, but for all Members of Parliament. This fate does not need to be set in stone. The situation can still be avoided. We know that people who were involved in Vote Leave are saying, “Well, it’s all done and dusted. This is the fate of the British economy, and Brexit is going to take us over the cliff,” but there are choices that we in Britain can make. I say to my hon. Friends as much as to the Government that it is our responsibility to avoid the Brexit austerity that is likely to cast a shadow over the decade ahead. That austerity will be the responsibility of us all unless we opt to remain in the single market and the customs union in order to retain the tariff-free trade that we have with our nearest neighbours and to avoid these problems.

[Alex Chalk (Cheltenham) (Con)]

I have just looked at table 1.2 on page 17 of the Red Book, to which the hon. Gentleman referred. It shows the deficit going down from £58.3 billion to £16.8 billion, but the figures he referred to—£8.4 billion going up to £20.6 billion—relate to the receipts forecast. They do not indicate a reduction in receipts as a result of Brexit.

[Mr Leslie]

I am afraid they do show a reduction in receipts. The hon. Gentleman will see in the end column that the budget deficit for 2021 was forecast in the spring to be £16 billion, but today’s Budget now predicts that it will be £30 billion. The level of borrowing is predicted to go up significantly, largely driven by the £20 billion fall in receipts. The figures are quite clear.

The Government could choose not to take resources out of public services now. They could add to the borrowing, but that would have an impact due to extra debt interest. My suspicion, certainly with this Government, is that there will be more fiscal tightening and more austerity in the tail end of the years ahead. When we add up the money being wasted on Brexit preparations and the divorce bill, and take into account the fall in receipts because of low productivity and lower growth forecasts, which in turn are being driven by the dark cloud of Brexit, we realise that this is the real story behind the Budget. However, this need not be the fate of this country if we take certain decisions. I say to hon. Members on both sides of the House: let us not be responsible for this level of austerity in the future. We can choose a different fate, and we need to ensure that we intervene and retain our membership of the single market and customs union.

Duties of Customs

Chris Leslie Excerpts

Ways and Means resolution: House of Commons
Monday 20th November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

The Bill deals with our leaving the European Union, which means, as a simple matter of law, that we will be leaving the customs union. However, it does indeed allow for a transition period in which there could be a very close customs association with the European Union.

[Mr Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

How?

[Mel Stride]

The Bill will be presented this evening. When the hon. Gentleman reads it tomorrow, he will be more enlightened as to how it can facilitate a period of transition.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mel Stride]

We will be guided by HMRC on the number of staff required, and we are working closely with it on this issue. As the hon. Gentleman will know, Jon Thompson, the head of HMRC, has suggested that between 3,000 and 5,000 staff will be needed in a day one contingency scenario, if that is where we end up, and he and HMRC are in discussions with us about both the timing of the pressing of the buttons on these issues and the costs involved. The hon. Gentleman can rest assured that HMRC will be provided with whatever resources it requires to ensure that we are ready on day one.

[Mr Leslie]

Will the Minister assure us that the Bill, which, of course we do not have but which he is saying we will be able to see—although not until we have debated this paving resolution—will contain arrangements for sanitary and phytosanitary regulatory checks at Dover and the channel tunnel entrance and exit? They are not there at present and if we were going to institute customs checks, we would similarly have to institute those regulatory checks. Has Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs allowed for that in the budget as well?

[Mel Stride]

The hon. Gentleman makes it sound as though the fact that we do not have the Bill available right now is in some way inappropriate or not right, but he will know that this Bill is a finance Bill—a taxation Bill—and it is coming in under Ways and Means. I will introduce the Bill at the end of this debate, having the opportunity to walk the Floor accordingly and to be admired by many Members on both sides of the House when I do so. He will also be aware that HMRC is involved in our ongoing negotiations on the issues he has raised, and these things will come out of those discussions in the normal manner.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

I think that the Minister said at the outset that it is the Government’s policy to leave the customs union. It was not on the ballot paper in the referendum; it is a policy choice that the Government are taking. It is therefore the Government’s policy to exit the most efficient, tariff-free, frictionless, free trade area anywhere in the world, and what we will end up with afterwards is therefore bound to be inferior—possibly very much inferior—to the basic free trade arrangements enjoyed by most countries around the world. We could find ourselves at the mercy of basic WTO tariff arrangements, so the Bill that we are paving the way for with this Ways and Means motion comes at a crucial juncture.

I thought it was unfair that many Government Members referred to the speech of my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) as Eeyore-ish. He is actually quite a positive character, who wants to do the best for trade, for business and for this country. In fact, if anything is negative, it is the legislation that the Government are proposing. The Minister was the harbinger of doom, because the Bill plans for a no-deal scenario. This set of legislative changes paves the way for circumstances in which the UK may be imposing tariffs on our nearest trading neighbours and vice versa. I cannot think of something more depressing, defeatist or premature, especially given that we have not even had the negotiations yet. In fact, I cannot think of anything much more aggressive towards the negotiation settlement that we are trying to get than the suggestion that we are going to put into legislation the ability for us to raise significant tariffs with our nearest trading partners, with whom 50% of our trade takes place.

[Richard Graham]

The hon. Gentleman is talking rationally, as always. The reason why I felt that the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) was being rather Eeyore-ish is that he underestimates the impact on Scottish whisky, about which he talked quite a lot, of the far east. He needs to go and see the Johnnie Walker shops in Shanghai and Beijing. He needs to look closely at Whyte & Mackay—a failing Glaswegian whisky manufacturer now saved and re-energised by a buyer from the Philippines—to understand that the future of Scottish whisky lies as much in Asia and other far-flung places as it does in Europe.

[Mr Leslie]

That may be so, but this is not an either/or situation. This is not about selling a fantastic Scottish whisky product to China or to Europe; we should be doing both. German car manufacturers and French food producers are trading exceptionally well with the far east, while remaining a member of the customs union and of the single market. My quibble with Ministers and some Government Members is that they give an impression that this is a binary, either/or arrangement. They say, “Oh well, we can ditch our trading relationships and partnerships with our nearest neighbours, because we might eventually be able to do something with China, India, Australia or Brazil,” but we should be able to do all those things. We can do all those things simultaneously, while remaining part of the greatest free trade area of any set of nations anywhere in the world, but we are about to throw that overboard for no reason resulting from the referendum, but due to Government policy.

We all obviously hope that we can salvage that relationship within the single market and the customs unions in a short transitional period, but that will take quite a lot of negotiation and depends on several different things. It is a shame that the German Government are in an unstable situation, because I suspect that that will make things far harder. I did not vote in favour of triggering article 50 because I thought that doing so was premature. I thought we should have secured a better timetable than the one we ended up with, because of course the clock ticks down. We could end up with unforeseen diplomatic wrinkles in the process and be backed into a corner, possibly finding ourselves with an inferior transition arrangement and a snap general election that nobody anticipates, least of all Conservative Members.

Let us bear in mind what this Ways and Means motion might presage for tariffs on our different imports and exports. [Interruption.] I know the Whip, the hon. Member for Beverley and Holderness (Graham Stuart), and the Minister are listening very carefully. A 7% tariff would be introduced on ceramic products. On cars, the tariff would be 10%.

[Gareth Snell]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Mr Leslie]

Of course I give way to my hon. Friend, who is a great campaigner for the ceramics sector.

[Gareth Snell]

I thank my hon. Friend for raising ceramics. He will know that the best ceramics in the world are made in this country, but the Ways and Means motion, which talks so much about how we will trade around the world, talks very little about the protections that can be afforded to the ceramics industry, so that it remains one of the best producers in the world. Is he, like me, worried that with this motion the ministerial team appears to be completely devoid of any intention to help this country’s manufacturing bases?

[Mr Leslie]

That, of course, is exactly why the amendments tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South should be accepted and embraced by Ministers and by Labour party Front Benchers. I am sure my hon. Friend the Member for Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds) will reflect on that. We should fear such tariffs, because they might not just be one-offs. Products can sometimes cross a border multiple times and accumulate tariffs.

There would be an 11% tariff on footwear, 20% on beverages, potentially 45% on cereals and 50% on meat products. Those are serious impediments to some major industries in the United Kingdom. We can prepare for a tariff regime, but as stated in the amendments tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South, we do not wish to impose tariffs on goods traded with our nearest neighbours in the European Union. In essence, we want to replicate the customs union arrangement we currently have.

I am delighted with the amendments, and I want to ensure the House has the opportunity to voice support for them this evening. It is a shame that, in Committee on the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, the amendments on the customs union have not been selected, so we will not get a chance to vote on customs union issues in Committee. In many ways, we now have an opportunity to do so.

[Tom Brake]

I also want the House to have the opportunity to vote on the amendments today, and I look forward to it. Has the hon. Gentleman been following the question of local content in cars? The UK could, of course, be in a very difficult position whereby the local content of the cars we manufacture would not be high enough to allow us to sell any of them abroad.

[Mr Leslie]

The question of rules of origin, of course, is the other factor in the debate about the customs union, because it is not just a question of tariffs; it is about what proportion of these products originates from within the United Kingdom and what proportion relates to components or other parts that may have come from the inventory or warehouse of the whole European Union. Currently, under just-in-time arrangements for warehousing, a car manufacturer located in the UK can avoid the need to stack up expensive inventory. It can assume that goods and parts are able to be transmitted within a matter of hours or days, which is what we risk losing if we end up with such tariffs and impediments at our borders.

[Tom Brake]

Is the hon. Gentleman aware that, apparently, the solution the UK Government are proposing to rules of origin might be to ask the European Union to allow its content to be included as part of our local content?

[Mr Leslie]

Some solutions have to be forthcoming. I have high hopes for the Minister’s winding-up speech. I do not know whether he is able to say anything about that suggestion, or about any other part of the negotiation.

Let us remember that the customs union currently allows a vehicle manufacturer to sell a car in Berlin as easily as in Birmingham or Bradford. That is the nature of the market we currently have, but it could end if we impose tariffs at the levels to which the motion paves the way.

Earlier, the right hon. Member for Carshalton and Wallington (Tom Brake) raised the border with Northern Ireland, and my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South talked about how the Belfast agreement is one area where that question is crystallised most of all. I cannot think of any hon. Member who would say that there should be a hard border between Britain and Northern Ireland. If we are not to have such a border, there should not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Of course there cannot be a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and the European Union, but, somehow, we are talking about instituting a hard border between the European Union and the United Kingdom. The logic of that, as the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe (Mr Clarke) said earlier, completely falls to pieces. We are still waiting for that blue-sky solution, the kite flown in the recent trade White Paper. The Irish Government are now asking for written proposals from UK Ministers on those points.

These are serious questions, and a lot of it roots back to whether we will find ourselves voluntarily opting for circumstances in which we want tariffs, hard borders and rules of origin checks to be put in place. By supporting the amendments tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South, the House has a way to signify that, actually, we choose a different course by choosing to retain as much as possible of the frictionless free trade and tariff-free area that we currently enjoy in the customs union.

[Lady Hermon (North Down) (Ind)]

The Prime Minister has emphasised that there will be no “physical infrastructure” on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, in evidence to the Select Committee on Northern Ireland Affairs, ruled out having cameras on the border. If we are not to have cameras or physical infrastructure on a frictionless, seamless border, how exactly does the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Mr Leslie) foresee the Government being able to collect customs duties on imports between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?

[Mr Leslie]

There is absolutely no logic to the Government’s position right now. Again, none of this was on the ballot paper in the referendum. That is important to remember because people are assuming that, somehow, this is a natural consequence of the referendum result. It is not. We could choose to negotiate to remain in the customs union. By doing so, of course, not only would we have that fantastic free trade access for 50% of our imports and exports, as at present, but we would retain our access to the 57 free trade agreements with non-EU countries that we have by virtue of our membership of the European Union and customs union—that is another 12% of our trade. Added together, knocking on two thirds of our trade is, in many ways, dependent on our current relationship with the customs union.

I look forward to the speech of my hon. Friend the Member for Oxford East from the Labour Front Bench. I say to her and to our Front-Bench colleagues that we cannot just sweep away the question of the customs union. It is positive that the Labour party is saying we want to stay in the customs union for the transition period, and it is positive we are saying that, after Brexit, we want to get as close as we can to a customs union, but I urge Labour Front Benchers to go that little bit further.

It is nonsense to suggest that there is such a thing as a jobs-first Brexit, which is as nonsensical as saying that we could have a books-first library closure. It just does not work. If we end up going down this route, exiting the customs union and the single market, jobs will be lost. We have already seen 900 jobs go in the European Medicines Agency today from the UK to Amsterdam; we are talking about highly skilled, highly valuable activity. I am appalled that we are in that circumstance, and it is just the tip of the iceberg. I therefore urge my colleagues to support the excellent amendments from my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South.

--- Later in debate ---

[Anneliese Dodds]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for her helpful intervention. As she will know, the Labour position is that we want to leave all possibilities open. We think that is an appropriate approach to take. [Interruption.] I see Government Members laughing at that. We are in a negotiation where it is surely absolutely essential that we put Britain’s interest first and that means not taking options off the table. Sadly, the Government did that very early on and caused an enormous amount of bad will from our other EU partners, which we regret enormously. They should not have done that.

If the worst does happen and the Government lead us—through their lack of application and, frankly, the internecine squabbles on the Government Benches—to leave the EU without a trade deal, the rules of the WTO leave us no option but to trade with our European partners on the same basis as we trade with all countries with which we have no free trade agreement. This is the most favoured nation principle at the heart of the WTO: that there must be no arbitrary discrimination between trading partners of a similar developmental status, unless those countries have negotiated a free trade agreement that meets the WTO’s definitional requirements.

If we were to adopt amendments that allow the UK Government to set customs duties on imports and exports from every other country in the world but not our European neighbours, in the case of a chaotic no-deal situation we would be faced with two unpalatable options. First, we could disregard the most favoured nation rule, in which case we would be exposed to virtually limitless potential dispute challenges from all other WTO members. The second option is abiding by the most favoured nation rule, but that would mean having to trade with all other countries on the same basis as we traded with the EU—namely, as the amendments would have it, without tariffs or quotas. Some Conservative Members and groups, such as the so-called Economists for Free Trade, would wish for such an outcome—a unilateral abolition of tariffs and all other trade barriers—freely admitting that such a scenario would see the end of manufacturing in the UK, as well as the end of agricultural production and the concomitant loss of millions of jobs.

[Mr Leslie]

I hear very much my hon. Friend’s argument, but would she acknowledge that this is a paving Ways and Means motion seeking, at this snapshot in time, to circumscribe the scope of the Bill to ensure that we can replicate the current customs union? Should we have, at some hypothetical point in the future, that crashing-out scenario, Parliament could address that at that point, and so at present the amendments from my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) are absolutely pertinent to the message we need to send to the Government.

[Anneliese Dodds]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his question, but the problem is that the Government’s stated intention with these motions—they have said it time and again—[Interruption.] May I finish my point? They have said time and again that these motions are about our future relationship with the EU. I am afraid that they do not see them as part of a negotiation that might change. I would hope that generally the Government would be far more open about their negotiating position—

Oral Answers to Questions

Chris Leslie Excerpts

Tuesday 24th October 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hammond]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right to say that we have the lowest unemployment rate for four decades, and that is a remarkable achievement. The British economy has performed with remarkable resilience since June 2016. Last year, we had the second highest growth rate in the G7. The British economy is fundamentally strong and resilient. Yes, we have some short-term uncertainty, but underneath that is a strong and resilient economy ready to go forward and reap the benefits that are available in the future.

[Mr Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

A fortnight ago, at the International Monetary Fund, the Chancellor was talking about the fiscal and unemployment consequences if a transition deal on Brexit is not achieved by the first quarter of next year. He was right then, so what is he doing to help secure a specific transition agreement in that first quarter of next year?

[Mr Hammond]

We are preparing for all outcomes in our negotiations with the European Union, but the Government’s objective is to reach a deal. As the Prime Minister made clear in her Florence speech, as part of that deal we want to agree an implementation period, during which businesses and Governments can prepare for the new relationship, and we want to agree the principles of that period as soon as possible. Last week, at the European Council, the 27 agreed to start internal preparatory discussions on guidelines in relation to an implementation period. Together with the broad support for the idea in Parliament, this should give British businesses confidence that we are going to provide them with the certainty they require.

Oral Answers to Questions

Chris Leslie Excerpts

Tuesday 18th July 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hammond]

My hon. Friend is right to express concern about the vulnerability created by the high level of debt. As the OBR made clear last week, that debt means that if the economy were to face an external shock, we would not be in a position to respond in the way that we would ideally like. That is why we have to get debt down, and the only way to get debt down is to get the deficit down. That means responsible fiscal policy, not the kind of rubbish we hear from Labour Front Benchers.

[Mr Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

Was it not clear from the OBR report last week that it is a hard Brexit that presents the biggest threat to our national finances? Just a 0.1% decrease in productivity could lead, over 50 years, to a 50% increase in the ratio of debt to GDP. If the reports are true that the Chancellor is prepared to champion a longer transition from the single market for the UK, such welcome news might secure a lot of support on both sides of the House.

[Mr Hammond]

I welcome the hon. Gentleman’s contribution. On an issue as important to our nation’s future as our exit from the European Union, I welcome any opportunity to build consensus across the House and the nation. He is right to draw attention to what the OBR said. Even a very small decline in our productivity performance would add huge amounts to the debt and would reduce, by significant amounts, our projected growth in GDP. That is why it is so important that we now act responsibly in maintaining fiscal discipline and ensuring that we reduce our debt over time.