Ukraine

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Friday 31st October 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I was president of the CBI when the Ukraine war started, when Russia illegally invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. On the Monday after the war started, I went to see ambassador Vadym Prystaiko at the Ukrainian embassy to offer the help of British industry. It was then that I heard from the horse’s mouth that Ukraine was going to fight. Putin thought that, in the same way as the Taliban walked into Afghanistan after our withdrawal and the Afghan army capitulated, he would be able to walk into Kyiv and take over the whole of Ukraine. We must remember that the war started over a decade ago—in Crimea in 2014.

As the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, said in his excellent speech, Moscow’s aim was to undermine NATO, but here is blunder number two by Putin. The week after the invasion, I was scheduled to speak to the EU ambassadors at their regular meeting at the EU embassy in Smith Square. During my speech I looked at the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden and said, “Are you ready now to join NATO?” They said, “We are ready within five minutes”. Sure enough, Finland and Sweden have now joined NATO: two formidable defence powers, with Finland able to muster hundreds of thousands of trained troops within weeks. They have a far longer border with Russia—more than 1,400 kilometres—than Ukraine does. Both countries are also formidable defence manufacturing powers: rifles, artillery, aircraft, you name it.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, in his excellent opening speech, said that there is a lack of equipment. We cannot support Ukraine in a half-hearted way. Every Peer who has spoken in this debate, whether independent or from any party, is united in defending and supporting Ukraine, but we must do it all the way. Why do we not give them the Tomahawks? President Zelensky said, “Give me wings”, when he came here and addressed us. As an honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force, I am so proud that it is the RAF that is now training Ukrainian pilots to fly F16s. I am like a stuck record. In the 2019 debate on the 70th anniversary of NATO, I said that when we were spending 2% of GDP on defence, we should be spending 3%. Does the Minister agree that that is what we should be doing?

Russia’s illegal invasion continues to devastate Ukraine as a country, displace millions and undermine European and global security. The fighting is intense, yet Russia’s progress is limited. Ukraine still holds the fortified fortress belt. Russia has now intensified its missile and drone campaign. In one week earlier this month, it launched more than 3,000 drones, 92 missiles and 1,400 glide bombs. Financial support for Ukraine has been amazing and, on top of that, I am proud of the way the UK leads the coalition of the willing with France. I am proud at the way the UK leads in the United Nations and with other resolutions that are required.

Why are we worried about escalation? Already, the Russians have incursions in Estonian airspace and in Poland. We have got to deal with this and face up to it. Importantly, Ukraine has now become a testing ground for modern warfare, pioneering FPV drones, small-unit manoeuvres, electronic warfare protection, naval drones and drones for logistics and prisoner capture. This is fantastic. Ukraine has institutionalised a Test in Ukraine programme. We need to learn from the Ukrainians. No one has mentioned that £3.5 billion in UK export finance has enabled Ukraine to build and reconstruct six bridges in the Kyiv region and supported delivery of mine countermeasure vessels. I am proud of that. On top of that, there are 2,800 sanctions.

Yet, since November 2022, Russia has gained only 1% of Ukrainian territory. Its losses are horrific. More than 1 million soldiers have been killed or wounded, as has been mentioned. Russia is also losing huge amounts of material—4,000 tanks, 9,000 armoured vehicles, 2,000 artillery pieces—and is failing to achieve its goals on the battlefield. I acknowledge the excellent maiden speech of the noble Lord, Lord Barrow, with all his expertise.

Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, said that he would be prepared to station Britain’s troops in Ukraine in peace. Will the Minister confirm that? The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and leaders of Nordic countries have said that they are confident that the use of Russian frozen assets for Ukrainian benefit would be approved by December. Do we support that?

Nick Robinson recently interviewed Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, our former Chief of the Defence Staff. He said this:

“If a snail had left Rostov-on-Don in Russia on February 24, 2022, by now it would have crossed all the way through Ukraine and would be halfway through Poland. That’s how difficult Russia is finding it just to get those four oblasts. If Russia carries on at the pace that it currently is, it will take it 4.4 years to get the remaining territory in those four oblasts. And having lost 1 million people killed and wounded, it will lose a further 2 million people killed and wounded. So this is about Ukraine’s bravery, Ukraine’s courage, our support to Ukraine to keep them in the fight and to keep imposing that cost on Russia”.


I conclude with this quote from Yuval Noah Harari in the Financial Times:

“War is not won by the side that conquers more land, destroys more cities, or kills more people. War is won by the side that achieves its political aims. And in Ukraine, it is already clear that Putin has failed to achieve his chief war aim—the destruction of the Ukrainian nation”.


The voice from the House of Lords to the world, to this country and to Ukraine is loud and clear: the United Kingdom stands by Ukraine 100%, all the way.

Defence Industrial Strategy

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 10th September 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, as the chair of the International Chamber of Commerce UK, I am absolutely delighted with the defence industrial strategy. Back in 2019, we debated the 70th anniversary of NATO. I was the only Peer in that debate who said that our defence expenditure should be 3% of GDP, rather than 2% as it then was. I am delighted to see that the strategy says that we are going to go up to 3.5%. Does the Minister agree that, sadly, with the world that we live in now, it will probably need to go up to 5% very soon?

The strategy is very good, but it does not talk about global strategy. I am co-chair of the India All-Party Parliamentary Group. Given our skills that the Minister spoke about, is there not an opportunity to partner with countries such as India, which has defence manufacturing as a priority, to our benefit as well?

The Minister spoke about skills. What about universities? As a former chancellor of the University of Birmingham, I have seen first-hand the power of business and universities working together. There is huge potential here for defence.

Finally, on defence procurement—which the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, spoke about—should it not be compulsory for everyone in defence procurement to be qualified through the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, which is headquartered here in the UK?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I will take that last point about procurement to my honourable friend Luke Pollard MP, who is the Minister in the other place. On defence spending, the debate continues on how much it should increase, but I am glad to see that the trajectory across Europe is towards increased spending. I will focus on the global strategy. Within the department, we are also working on a refreshed defence diplomacy strategy that we will see in due course.

On India specifically, I have been to India and spoken to officials about the relationship between our two countries and the trade that may take place. The noble Lord will know that the carrier strike group is visiting India on its way back. Again, that is part of the development of relationships between us and other nations. All that is focused. Whenever a Minister goes to another country—I am going to the Philippines next week—we put defence exports and business at the forefront of what we do. The carrier strike group had defence business activity all over it when it was in Tokyo Bay just a few days ago.

We are making progress, and I know that that progress is supported by everyone. Is there more to do? Yes, but there is an awful lot happening, particularly with countries such as India.

Defence Spending

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 31st October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, in defence expenditure as a share of GDP, Poland is at 4.12%, Estonia at 3.43%, the United States of America at 3.38%, and we come ninth at 2.33%. With 2.33% we are nowhere near 2.5%, which is supposedly the target pledged by both the Labour Government and the previous Conservative Government, and NATO’s baseline is of course 2%. If we go up to 2.5%, we will be higher than Finland and Denmark but we still below Greece, the USA, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. I say again: the Labour Government have committed to reach the 2.5% target but have not specified a completion date. The Conservative Government had a date as far away as 2030. Can the Minister give us a commitment to that?

Additional funding of £5 billion was allocated post the invasion of Ukraine, with planned annual increases through 2027-28. The Ministry of Defence faces budget gaps, including a £3 billion deficit in equipment planned for 2024-25, and a £3.9 billion gap for 2025-26. Of course, in the Budget we have had this announcement of £2.9 billion. That is good news but it is nowhere near enough.

The UK’s increased defence spending aligns with NATO’s collective defence strategy, reinforcing our commitment to alliance-readiness. I am like a stuck record: in 2019, in our debate in the Chamber on the 70th anniversary of NATO, I first said that we should be spending 3% of our GDP on defence—not 2.5% but 3%. That was five years ago. Five years ago, there was no sign of Putin invading Ukraine, or of 7 October and the tragic situation in the Middle East since. Since the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, we are closer to global conflict than ever before, and then 3% will be nowhere near enough.

As a country we have provided £12.8 billion in support to Ukraine, including £7.8 billion of military support and £5 billion of non-military support. One of the proudest parts of my career was being president of the Confederation of British Industry and, within that, there is my pride at helping British industry help Ukraine, from literally days after the war started, with medical kits, ration kits, food supplies and so on.

Our support for Ukraine has been amazing. As the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, said, we cannot let Ukraine lose. But the defence of Ukraine is possible only if the United States continues its support. It has provided over $100 billion of support; if it pulls out its support, that war is over. The election in America is next week; the repercussions will be very serious indeed and we must be prepared for that.

I am a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force, and I thank the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, for leading this debate. He is an honorary air commodore, so I have to salute him.

We heard in the defence debate earlier today about the outsourcing of recruitment in our Armed Forces. It is appalling. How can you outsource the esprit de corps of our finest Armed Forces? The recruitment should be done by the Armed Forces and services themselves. Please will the Minister confirm that he will stop this?

The UK should join the Quad—the Indo-Pacific alliance between the USA, Japan, Australia and India, to make it Quad Plus. We are at the top table of the world. We have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, we are the second-biggest power in NATO, and a member of AUKUS, Five Eyes, the G7 and the G8, though sadly not the EU any more. We have the finest, most respected Armed Forces in the world, which we should all be proud of.

The “but”, as I have said before, is that, in real terms, we were spending £57 billion in 2010 and today we are spending £54 billion. Our Armed Forces are too small, at 192,760. The SDR, chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is wonderful news, and it is crucial that we get it absolutely right.

To conclude, as I have said, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, has said that we have a

“shrinking and hollowing out of our Armed Forces”.—[Official Report, 9/10/24; col. GC 226.]

and the noble Lord, Lord West, has said that

“money is the elephant in the room”.—[Official Report, 9/10/24; col. GC 227.]

The price of freedom is not free. We need to spend at least 3% of GDP on defence.

Defence Policy: Deterrence

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 31st October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, there is direct deterrence and extended deterrence. The noble Lord, Lord Trefgarne, spoke about the credibility challenge that arises when states question the reliability of a defender’s commitment to protect allies, impacting extended deterrence.

The UK’s continuous at-sea deterrent, the CASD, has kept a nuclear-armed submarine patrolling undetected since 1969 to deter aggression. The nuclear policy in 2024 maintains a minimum credible and independent deterrent, used only in extreme self-defence and authorised solely by the Prime Minister. In 2023 the previous Conservative Government updated and prioritised an integrated multidomain deterrence strategy to counter state and transnational threats, with NATO as central. The UK’s nuclear deterrent pledged to NATO’s defence would be used only in extreme self-defence.

The Labour Government have affirmed NATO as a core to European and global security, and have committed to a new UK-EU security pact and improved defence ties with France, Germany and the Joint Expeditionary Force partners. The current Government pledge absolute support for the UK’s nuclear deterrent, including a triple-lock commitment to four nuclear submarines, continuous at-sea deterrence and future upgrades. Can the Minister confirm all this? Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey highlighted NATO’s role against Russia’s aggression and reinforced nuclear defence capabilities only in July this year.

Engaging with the moral implications of deterrence policy can lead to responsible decisions regarding the UK’s nuclear arsenal. Effective deterrence requires understanding and addresses complex motivations and perceptions. There are two strategies: deterrence by denial, which seeks to make aggression infeasible and relies on military presence, and deterrence by punishment, which threatens severe consequences but may be perceived as less credible. Historical evidence suggests that denial strategies are generally more reliable than punishment strategies, as they provide clearer signals of intent and capability to potential aggressors. The United States used deterrence effectively in Europe during the Cold War, leveraging its presence to complicate aggressors’ calculations and act as a trip-wire.

Combining deterrence threats with reassurance is crucial to avoiding provoking aggression, as seen with the US strategies towards North Korea. Success in deterrence requires clear communication of what is being deterred and the actions that will follow if ignored.

NATO has now been hugely strengthened by Finland and Sweden joining. At the Madrid summit in 2022, NATO identified Russia as the most significant threat to Euro-Atlantic security and terrorism as a direct, asymmetric threat. Twenty-three NATO allies are projected to meet or exceed spending 2% of GDP on defence, compared to only three allies in 2014. That is very good news. Collective defence is at the heart of the alliance, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which is a huge deterrent in itself.

We must continue to remember that the purpose of nuclear deterrence is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression. Collaboration is key to this—the way in which we collaborate with the United States and France on nuclear deterrence, ensuring cost-effective operations. Our independent nuclear deterrence supports thousands of jobs nationwide.

I am a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the RAF. The “but” here is that the Defence Secretary has expressed concerns that our Armed Forces are unprepared for war, emphasising the need for improved deterrent capabilities against future aggression. The outsourcing of recruits has meant that only 10% of applicants successfully joined the British Armed Forces in 2023. Does the Minister agree that that must change?

I am a member of the GREAT Campaign’s advisory board. We in the UK have the strongest combination of hard and soft power, which gives us great global influence. Our strong nuclear deterrent is a huge element in this combination of hard and soft power.

Ukraine

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Friday 25th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I was president of the CBI when the Ukraine war started after Russia illegally invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. On the Monday after the war started, I went to see the ambassador, Vadym Prystaiko, at the Ukrainian embassy to offer the help of British industry. It was then that I learned from the horse’s mouth that Ukraine was going to fight. Putin thought that, in the same way as the Taliban walked into Afghanistan after our withdrawal and the Afghan army capitulated, he would be able to walk into Kyiv and take over the whole of Ukraine. As the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, said in his excellent maiden speech, this war actually started a decade ago, when Russia took over Crimea in 2014.

I come to blunder number two by Putin. The week after the invasion, I was scheduled to address the EU ambassadors at their regular meeting at the EU embassy, just across the road in Smith Square. During my speech, I looked at the ambassadors from Finland and Sweden. I asked them, “Are you now ready to join NATO?” They said, “Within five minutes”. Sure enough, Finland and Sweden have now joined NATO—two formidable defence powers, with Finland able to muster hundreds of thousands of trained troops within weeks and having a far longer border with Russia than Ukraine does, at 1,400 km. Both countries are also formidable defence manufacturing powers, as the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, said, when it comes to rifles, artillery and aircraft.

Here we are, almost three years into a war of attrition with Putin not giving up. In his excellent opening speech, the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, spoke of the 675,000 Russian casualties. Russia has lost 3,400 tanks and 8,500 armoured vehicles, while 26 vessels in the Black Sea have been either destroyed or damaged. Tragically, among Ukraine’s civilians and troops, thousands of lives have been lost. I do not whether noble Lords are aware of this but there are 80,000 amputees in Ukraine as a result of this awful war. Young lives—indeed, whole families—are being ruined.

Putin is making another blunder. He is worried about Ukraine joining NATO. At the 2024 Washington summit, allies stated that they will continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to NATO membership. Look at Australia. It is thousands of miles away but has pledged to supply 49 surplus M-1A1 Abrams tanks to the Ukrainian war effort. This could not have come at a better time, because the 47th Mechanized Brigade, the Ukrainian army’s sole user of American-made M-1s, is running out of tanks.

The noble Lord, Lord Robathan, is absolutely right. We cannot go about supporting Ukraine in a half-hearted way. We are all united. Every party in this House and every independent Peer—we are all united in defending and supporting Ukraine. However, I fear that we are doing it half-heartedly. We should be going all out. I ask the Minister: what about the planes? No one has mentioned planes. When President Zelensky came here, he said, “Give me wings”. We have given those wings. When are they going to be used? Are we going to be able to use weaponry in Russian territory?

As the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, mentioned in his opening speech, the UK has approved a military loan of £2.26 billion for Ukraine, using profits from frozen Russian assets. This is excellent news. In the summer, the leaders of the G7 countries agreed to cream off the profits from around €280 billion of Russian sovereign assets that have been frozen. This is the sort of thing that we need to be doing. Of course, Russia must pay for the 470,000 damage cases registered in Ukraine and the trillions of dollars-worth of damage that it has caused.

Everything hinges on what happens in America in a few days’ time. Are we prepared for what might happen on 5 November and who might win that election? Republican support in the US for Ukraine seems to have waned. Will it continue if we have a Trump presidency? There is also a growing relationship between Russia, Iran and North Korea. China, which continues to exploit Russia’s weakened position, is using that for its own strategic interests.

Of course, we must not forget the £457 million of humanitarian aid that we have given to Ukraine. The UN has been useless recently. It has been totally ineffective, except in helping to get the grain to flow out of Odessa. The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, mentioned India, which will be the largest economy in the world by 2060. Are we working with India to try to resolve these conflicts? India is an ally of ours. Are we working with and talking to it?

I conclude with this—I am a stuck record. In 2019, on the 70th anniversary of NATO, I said that we should spend 3% of our GDP on defence. We need to do that now more than ever. As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said in a previous debate and in his excellent speech today, we have a shrinking and hollowing-out of our Armed Forces. As the noble Lord, Lord West, said, money is the elephant in the room. I keep saying this: the price of freedom is not free. We must save Ukraine and help it to win this war.

Relations with Europe

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, referendum is the most undemocratic method. It is a snapshot of a point in time; it is finite. Democracy needs to be dynamic so that every four or five years people have the opportunity to change their minds. For the last year or so, at every opportunity, in every speech, at the opportune moment, I have boldly asked the audience—domestic, international, at universities, even schoolchildren—whether they think Brexit was a huge mistake and an act of self-harm for the United Kingdom. I am not exaggerating when I say that 99% of the hands go up—it happened just today.

I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for initiating this debate, and I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Hodge, on her excellent maiden speech. We first met two decades ago, when we were on “Any Questions?” on the BBC together.

The Government have said clearly and unequivocally that they are interested in re-establishing our relationship in Europe since it weakened post-Brexit. This includes a new UK-EU security pact, improving bilateral relationships and the Joint Expeditionary Force—I do not think anyone has mentioned that so far.

It is a complex geopolitical environment, increasingly so, but here is a fact: in 2023, 52% of our imports and 42% of our exports were with the European Union. We got a huge trade deficit with the European Union, and these levels of exports are 11% below the pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels. The TCA has arrangements that are very restricted. The Government have said that they want to improve the relationship but do not want to rejoin the single market. Come on—why cannot we be bold? Why cannot we join the single market? Why cannot we then move towards the EEA Norway-type model and eventually move towards rejoining the European Union?

The war in Ukraine has led to increased co-operation between the UK and EU with regard to sanctions, intelligence sharing and military training, and with the challenges we face in defence procurement. Will the Minister admit that we have problems when it comes to defence procurement because we are no longer in the EU?

One of the most senior police officers in this country—I will not name the individual—said during the Brexit debate, “If people knew the security arrangements we have with the EU, they would vote to remain just because of that one issue alone”.

Regarding the youth mobility scheme, why can we not have a scheme where 18 to 30 year-olds can study and work in the UK and Europe? That has been proposed by the EU—we have rejected it. On the security partnership that we have, can the Government make their ambitions more concrete? The Erasmus programme is way better than Turing. Turing is one-way; Erasmus is both ways. We are losing out, our children are losing out, European children are losing out. We have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, how the music sector is losing out due to complex visa rules, cabotage restrictions, carnets, and musical instrument certificates. This is ridiculous. We do not need this. In 2018, 10,100 UK students participated in Erasmus. School trips have dropped hugely since Brexit. Some 47% of musicians report reduced EU work.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannan, spoke about cherry-picking. Well, I was president of the CBI, I sat on BusinessEurope. Do you know what its people used to say to me? “Why did you leave? We really respected you. You were different, but we envied you because you had the best of both worlds. You had your own currency; you could set your own interest rates.” Today we have the worst of both worlds.

Strategic Defence Review

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, the Government launched the strategic defence review on 16 July 2024. It is expected to report in the first half of 2025, which is an important date to note. The SDR has been described as a root and branch review of the whole of the UK defence enterprise, pointing the way to a new era for defence, but can a different approach taken this time around produce significantly better results than the other recent reviews? The worst one in history was SDSR 2010, under the leadership of Defence Minister Fox; it was hopeless, and it decimated our Armed Forces. This time, we are very lucky that the SDR is being led by my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson —chair of Ditchley, where I was a governor—and General Sir Richard Barrons. He and I were fellow commissioners at Royal Hospital Chelsea together.

With the ongoing war in Europe, the conflicts in the Middle East and global and regional instability, this review is all about the values and interests of the United Kingdom, including the threats posed by terrorist groups, hybrid warfare, the instabilities intensified by climate change, the UK’s defence structure, recruitment, training, the modernisation of the defence systems and the trajectory to reach 2.5% of GDP. In 2019, in the debate on NATO’s 70th anniversary, I said that we should spend 3% of GDP on defence, and I have been like a stuck record ever since. The MoD faces funding challenges. Our budget today is £54.2 billion for defence, and I will come back to that. We know the inefficiencies in our MoD procurement processes, evidenced by the delays in programmes such as Ajax and the Type 26. They will undermine our capability to respond to emerging and unexpected threats.

We are meant to be investing more in innovative technologies such as AI and cyber, and maintaining a competitive edge, and we are also meant to prioritise effective recruitment. I plead with the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, to make sure that this review gets rids of outsourcing recruitment. How can we outsource the esprit de corps of the finest Armed Forces in the world to recruiters who are not part of the defence forces themselves? That is a stupid idea—we have to stop it right now.

Other factors are our commitment to the UK’s nuclear deterrence, reinforcing NATO as a foundation of the UK’s defence strategy and a comprehensive approach to modernisation. The terms of reference have clear parameters: a commitment to the UK nuclear deterrent, a NATO-first approach, reinforcing homeland security, continuing support for Ukraine, maintaining defence ties with the Indo-Pacific region, the Gulf and the Middle East, and delivering AUKUS. But RUSI has said that the scale and immediacy of the threats and risks to UK national security grow. We will need to consider both pressing threats in Europe and longer-term challenges—for example, from China. The conflict and instability in the Middle East could escalate into a major war. The contingencies with respect to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula; the growing risk of hybrid attacks; the challenges in the new domains of space and cyberspace; and the potential and recurrence of international terrorism—all need to be on the menu of the SDR.

This is an important point: the post-Cold War reviews have focused on threats and risks that are immediate, occupying our minds and devising headline policies right now. But then things change quickly. Look at the example of the refreshment of the integrated review and defence Command Paper—within two years of publication—which happened after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We have to bear in mind that we need long-term thinking but also to be ready to adapt.

The UK and other western Governments have struggled to find the right balance of co-operation, competition and confrontation with regard to China. Then you have the balance between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific sides of things, as well as striking the right balance between short term and long term. Space is a strong candidate; we need additional expenditure on space in the SDR. We need collaboration with India, which is doing great initiatives in space. There is the scope of the Global Combat Air Programme, given that Typhoon should serve well, perhaps for another two decades, as long it has the latest weapons and sensors. The lessons learned from Ukraine and the Middle East should inform the judgment for our wider capabilities.

I am a proud member, as an honorary group captain, of the RAF 601 Squadron. I am co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on India. It is very important that the SDR looks at how we are to work more closely with India, the fastest-growing major economy in the world. I predict that it will be the largest economy in the world by 2060. Are we doing enough joint exercises? Last year I was delighted that the RAF and the IAF had Exercise Cobra Warrior, a very good joint exercise.

My late father, General Bilimoria, was commandant of the staff college in India. There was exchange of officers, and exchanges through the RCDS and the NDC in India. We used to have an Indian Army liaison officer posted in the UK within the British Army. My father held that post as a lieutenant colonel; that post no longer exists. That trust needs to be rebuilt.

The UK should join the Quad, the Indo-Pacific alliance between the USA, Japan, Australia and India, to make it Quad Plus. We are at the top table of the world. We are a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the second-biggest power in NATO, and a member of AUKUS, Five Eyes, the G7 and the G8, though sadly not the EU any more. We have the finest, most respected Armed Forces in the world, something that we as a nation should be immensely proud of.

But here is the “but”: as has been pointed out earlier, our spending on defence was higher in real terms in 2010 at £57 billion than it is today at £54 billion. Then, in 2010, there was a golden era with China, no threat in Ukraine, and not the confrontation in the Middle East that we have today. We are spending too little. Our full-time Armed Forces number 192,760 in total, Army, Navy and Air Force combined. My father’s army, the central army in India, was 350,000. There are 29,000 reserves. This is not good enough.

My final point is that the trajectory of this review should not be assumed. We are going to have a Budget in October, and a new American President soon after. What is the new American President’s approach to Ukraine or NATO going to be? What is the central planning scenario? What if the war in Ukraine continues and we need to spend substantially more? We need to be flexible and think of that; it will be too late by the time we report in spring next year.

Finally, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said that we have a shrinking and hollowing out of our Armed Forces. The noble Lord, Lord West, said that money is the elephant in the room. The price of freedom is not free.

King’s Speech

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, in May I co-chaired a geopolitical conference for the Young Presidents’ Organization. One of our speakers, given the global uncertainty and challenges that so many noble Lords have spoken about, said: “I’m not a pessimist; I’m only an optimist who’s worried”.

The gracious Speech spoke about a “strong defence” based on NATO’s values, and our new Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Roly Walker, has just said that the UK has three years to prepare for war, and an urgent need to restore credible hard power to underwrite our deterrence. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, said that our Armed Forces are hollowed out, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach, said that we need more reserves.

One of the biggest mistakes Putin made by invading Ukraine is that NATO is stronger than ever, with Finland and Sweden having joined. Five years ago, when we were celebrating the 70th anniversary of NATO, we had a debate in this House, and I think I was the only Peer who said that we should go not for 2.5% of GDP for defence but 3%. I think perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Sterling, said that as well. So I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, and the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. Will they commit to 2.5% now and aim for 3% as soon as possible?

I am honorary group captain of 601 Squadron in the Royal Air Force. Will the Minister also confirm, as the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton, asked, our commitment to the global combat air programme in partnership with Italy and Japan for the sixth-generation fighters that we need so urgently? It is wonderful news that we have the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, heading the defence review, helped by General Richard Barrons, whom I shared the platform with at the University of Birmingham, where I have just stepped down after 10 years of being chancellor. I also pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, who was an outstanding Foreign Office Minister for seven years. I dealt with him as a member of his India Council.

Talking about India, is it not wonderful that when David Lammy spoke at the India Global Forum just before the election, he said that if he became Foreign Secretary he would make India a priority and would be out in India immediately? And he has been in India this week, walking the talk. I think that is wonderful. We must try to conclude the free trade agreement. We started the negotiations on this free trade agreement in January 2022, when I was president of the CBI. We have had 14 months of negotiations, and here we are, two-and-a-half years later, and it is still not concluded. Can the Minister assure us that the FTA with India, which will be the biggest FTA that India, the fifth-largest economy in the world, has ever done, will be concluded? We do only £39 billion-worth of trade with India, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, and it is only our 12th-largest trading partner. We should be doing much more. We do almost £100 billion-worth with China.

I am a proud member of the 1.8 million-strong Indian diaspora over here and say humbly and with pride that it is such a successful diaspora, a living bridge with India. Is it not a shame that we had a Prime Minister of Indian origin for almost two years and it has been eight years since there has been a large prime ministerial delegation to India? I suggest to the Minister that Keir Starmer, who is a great fan of our relationship, leads a prime ministerial delegation to India as soon as possible.

When it comes to the EU, I urge the Government to not just reset our relationship. Quite frankly, we need to rejoin the single market with free movement of goods, services and people as soon as possible, and, as the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, said, we need to rejoin Erasmus. Turing is nowhere near good enough; it is the Erasmus scheme that is both ways.

The Labour manifesto spoke about strengthening diplomacy and modernising international development. Now that we have a new Government, surely we should admit that merging the FCO and DfID was a huge mistake and completely the wrong thing to do. They are both excellent departments in their own right and should be departments in their own right and DfID should have 0.7% of GDP for aid. Will the Government commit to that?

I conclude with this. The UK is at the top table of the world—except the EU. We are in the P5 of the UN, the G7, the G20, NATO, AUKUS, Five Eyes and the Commonwealth—the noble Lord, Lord Swire, spoke about the potential there—yet we are not a member of Quad, which is India, America, Japan and Australia. We should join Quad and make it Quad-plus. We have the strongest combination of hard and soft power in the world. Our defence is too small, but our 24-hours a day, 365 days a year nuclear deterrent is very powerful. We are still a top-10 manufacturer in the world. I chair the manufacturing commission and am a proud manufacturer. In finance, we are top in the world. As for our soft power, wow—our universities are the best in the world, along with America. Our royal family is phenomenal, led by His Majesty the King. The BBC is watched and listened to by 500 million people around the world and our Premier League football teams have tremendous soft power. So I am confident that, with the combination of soft power and hard power we have, if the Government listen to this amazing debate—the House of Lords at its best—we will be able to deal with this uncertain and challenging world.

AUKUS

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, AUKUS is an acronym for a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. There are two pillars, with defence capabilities, and in the first a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia, supported by the UK and the USA. The second pillar is co-operation in advanced capability, including AI.

As a trustee of Policy Exchange, I can say that we coined the term “Indo-Pacific”, as opposed to “Asia-Pacific”, as it used to be referred to. With the UK’s renewed policy focus in the Indo-Pacific, this is very timely. We have just joined the CPTPP. Should we join Quad, with India, the USA, Japan and Australia? The UK joining would make it Quad Plus, and we would circle the world. With our membership of NATO and Five Eyes, our security would be enhanced. However, would the Minister not agree—I am like a stuck record—that we should be spending 3% of GDP on defence? As the noble Lord, Lord Rogan, said, our Armed Forces, the Army, Navy and Air Force, are too small in numbers of people and short of equipment—and I say that as a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force.

The Prime Minister assured us last March that an additional £5 billion would be provided by the MoD for the AUKUS programme and sustained funding would be provided. The Government have also said that this would create thousands of jobs here in the UK and, of course, in Australia.

Gideon Rachman wrote an excellent article in the FT just three days ago, where he said:

“China has repeatedly attacked Aukus as dangerous and confrontational. Shortly after it was launched, Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister at the time, gleefully lampooned the ‘raucous squawkus from the anti-Aukus caucus’”.


Gideon Rachman concluded his article by saying:

“The pact is ultimately a statement of resolve and long-term commitment. It is based on a shared perception of the growing strategic threat from China and Russia as they work together to overturn the current international order. That perception seems more pressing and valid than ever”.


I thank the noble Lord, Lord Risby, for initiating this debate and raising awareness of AUKUS, which people need to know more about. I love the way he referred to it as a technology-accelerator agreement. There is huge potential in enhancing our security and powering ahead with our innovation and research and development capabilities—all things at which this country has always been absolutely brilliant.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, I too am grateful to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this debate and to all noble Lords for their constructive and extremely thoughtful contributions. It is fair to say that I have never been asked more questions in such a short period, so I will be doing quite a lot of writing. However, I hope to pick them all up either now or through answering some of the more specific ones.

It is indeed two and a half years since we launched the AUKUS defence and security partnership to bolster global security alongside our equal American and Australian allies. Since then, the challenges to address have become more acute. Putin has brought war to Europe, tensions have heightened in the Indo-Pacific, and terrorism and violence have been unleashed in the Middle East. Military coups have toppled Governments across the Sahel and the Houthis are holding global trade hostage in the Red Sea. Each of these global security setbacks magnifies the need to advance our military capabilities through partnerships such as AUKUS. This is about much more than building the next generation of submarines and other capabilities. It is also about establishing a more sustainable industrial base and developing the skills for the future. With that in mind, I will provide an update on the progress we have made on the various AUKUS workstreams and I will try to address the questions raised by the noble Lords.

First, AUKUS pillar 1 is our commitment to help Australia develop a conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine capability. Last March, AUKUS leaders announced that this new platform would be based on designs for the UK’s next-generation submarine that will replace our current Astute class. They will incorporate cutting-edge US technologies and will be the largest, most advanced and most powerful attack submarines ever operated by the Royal Navy. They will enhance our capability to operate in the north Atlantic and will further our objectives around the world. They will be built in Australia and the UK and will enter service with the Royal Navy in the late 2030s, and with the Royal Australian Navy in the late 2040s. This phased delivery will enable us to work together to build up the facilities, skills and experience needed for all partners to operate the vessels both safely and securely.

I was delighted to see the Australian high commissioner and his deputy earlier this week. We had a very positive, enthusiastic conversation about precisely this point on skills, training and experience. The opportunity of working ever more closely together on this critical task, developing joint skills and sustainable employment for decades to come across all three nations should be rightly celebrated, and that work is well under way.

The Government have committed an additional £5 billion up to 2025 to modernise the UK’s nuclear enterprise and fund the next phase of the AUKUS submarine programme. It is obviously very difficult, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, rightly knows, to budget very accurately when we are talking about 2030, which is years ahead. However, the determination is there to ensure that the procurement process is both accurate and timely.

AUKUS partners BAE, Babcock and Rolls-Royce have already been awarded contracts worth £4 billion to procure long-lead components for the submarines. This will support thousands of highly skilled jobs in the UK, particularly in Barrow, where the UK’s submarines will be constructed, and at the Rolls-Royce Raynesway site in Derby, which will double in size to manufacture all the reactors for the UK and Australian subs, creating around 1,100 new jobs. We have also accelerated nuclear co-operation and training between AUKUS partners, offering enhanced opportunities for Australian sailors to train in the UK and the US, including on non-nuclear submarines, and we have committed to more planned visits to the US and nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

On pillar 2, although the media spotlight has shone brightest on our submarine collaborations under pillar 1, AUKUS has always been about a much broader range of defence and industrial collaboration under pillar 2. From better information and technology sharing to new cutting-edge joint capabilities and more seamless interoperability, as well as strengthening the resilience of our defence sectors, these objectives were centre stage at the AUKUS defence ministerial meeting in December, where Ministers announced new pillar 2 capability programmes on AI, autonomous systems, threat detection, undersea warfare, quantum technologies and cybersecurity, as well as a separate deep space advanced radar programme and a programme of industrial engagement. We are making steady progress with many of these capabilities and, wherever possible, we will continue to be transparent and provide updates as we reach important milestones or embark on new endeavours.

Our ambition to deliver nuclear-powered submarines for Australia will remain trilateral. However, as our work progresses on AUKUS advanced capabilities—pillar 2—and other critical defence and security capabilities, we are open to engaging with allies and close partners. Defence Ministers also announced new future combined exercises, including a joint exercise in the autumn of 2024 off the east coast of Australia to test new equipment to protect critical underwater infrastructure, including autonomous systems. Joint exercises such as this improve our ability to work together and enhance the development of new capabilities.

My noble friend Lord Risby is absolutely right to raise the important function of the AUKUS working groups, which continue to progress the ambition set out in December by Defence Ministers. I am also grateful to him for highlighting the pivotal role that Barrow will play as a home of UK submarine-building. The Government have committed £5 million to support the long-term delivery board for Barrow and are working in close co-operation with Westmorland and Furness Council and BAE Systems to develop that community. With the infrastructure to support this ambition, it should be a thriving place for people to work and live. That includes local transportation and other community projects.

Critical to the success of AUKUS and the strength of the partnership is our ability to forge deeper and more seamless ties between our nations right across the defence sector, so we were delighted that Congress recently passed legislation to establish an AUKUS nations exemption to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations—ITAR—for the UK and Australia. I understand some of the concerns about the small print of this, but the principle having been taken is a very significant step in the right direction.

Closer collaboration and exchanges between our businesses and experts will drive innovation, enable us to make the most of emerging technologies and provide an opportunity for UK defence companies to turbocharge exports. To further grease the wheels of innovation and trade, we have established the advanced capabilities industry forum and will shortly publish the first AUKUS innovation challenge, deepening those crucial links between our three systems to ensure we support the development of skills fit for the future workforce.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

I thank the Minister for giving way. He just mentioned the AUKUS advanced capabilities industry forum and collaboration with trade and industry. That is absolutely spot on, but no one mentions working with universities. Is there not huge potential for the AUKUS programme, in the USA, Australia and here in the UK, to work with our world-class universities to turbocharge this programme? I am chancellor of the University of Birmingham, which last week won a Queen’s Anniversary Prize at Buckingham Palace for its work with Rolls-Royce on aero-engines. It is so powerful. Should we not be promoting this more?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I could not agree more. Rolls-Royce is in the process of doubling its graduate intake between 2022 and 2025, and taking on an enormous number of apprentices over the next 10 years to ensure that we build up this capability of proper, genuine, well-paid and highly skilled jobs for life—exactly the sort of thing that the noble Lord refers to.

Alongside our AUKUS partners, we have also committed to co-operate on the deep space advanced radar capability programme. Although DARC is not part of AUKUS as a result of the particular nature of regulatory requirements covering space-related technologies, it is a clear benefit from the closer trilateral working relationship that we have forged through our AUKUS partnership. That shows the breadth of thinking that AUKUS is projecting.

A couple of noble Lords raised our non-proliferation obligations. As part of the AUKUS programme, we have engaged extensively with the International Atomic Energy Agency, as noble Lords would expect. The UK, the US and Australia are fully committed to an approach that protects classified information and strengthens the global regime.

On the question of other strategic allies in the Indo-Pacific, such as Canada, Japan or indeed South Korea, which was mentioned, we already enjoy close defence relationships.

On exchanges, we currently have three Australian officers embedded in the Royal Navy submarine officer nuclear training pipeline and two Royal Australian Navy personnel embedded in the Submarine Delivery Agency in the Defence Nuclear Organisation. An advanced verification team formed of experts from all three partner countries visited Pearl Harbour and Faslane last year to build our understanding of the maintenance and industrial skills required to maintain nuclear submarines.

I shall just go through some of the specific questions. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, asked about costs and contingencies. In addition to the £3 billion extra provided to our Defence Nuclear Organisation, I confirm that there will be sustained funding to support the AUKUS programme over the next decade. It will be a process of iteration but the commitment is absolutely there.

Can we really build submarines faster than ever before? We have a commitment from our industrial partners and confidence in that. Rolls-Royce is producing the reactors and we have invested billions of pounds in both Barrow and Derby. As I said, we have committed to more than 1,000 new jobs already.

It is better that I write to the noble Lord, Lord Browne, about our assessment of uncrewed submarines.

At this time, it is not for me to comment on President Trump and the presidential candidates’ views. At the moment, all three parties are confident of the longevity of the tripartite agreement.

On the question of jobs in Belfast, there is indeed a very proud tradition and industrial past of shipbuilding in Northern Ireland and across the UK. I take the point: Barrow-in-Furness has the licence and capability to build the submarines, but I am certain that there will be a lot of SME opportunity that includes Northern Ireland. In fact, we will ensure that it does.

In closing, I express my gratitude once again to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this important debate on AUKUS. Our national defences have always been dependent on the strength of our resolve, the quality of our people and capabilities, and the power of our alliances. In our more dangerous world, the AUKUS partnership is strengthening all three of these elements. Our adversaries may be aligning but, through AUKUS, the UK, the US and Australia have become ever more connected, prepared and lethal. AUKUS is a partnership building bridges across the Atlantic and the Pacific. It is a partnership for the future that, I hope, will keep us safe for generations to come.

Armed Forces

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 7th September 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, it is a privilege to follow the noble and gallant Lord. The week before last, I was in India speaking at the B20 in Delhi. Our Prime Minister leaves today for the G20 in Delhi. I hope we will soon have a free trade agreement signed between the UK and India.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Soames, for leading this important debate, which is extremely timely. The Government’s Defence’s Response to a More Contested and Volatile World, published in July this year, says very clearly, right upfront in the ministerial foreword, that:

“We are proud of the role the UK is playing in supporting Ukraine in this fight. They are not only defending the international rules-based system on our behalf, but in many ways they are proving the way for warfare in the 2020s – whole of nation, internationally partnered, innovative, digitised and operating with tempo, precision and range. In turn, we are providing Ukraine with equipment, training and political support. We have galvanised European and international, governmental and industrial partners to do likewise. We are campaigning globally”.


Defence’s purpose is to protect the nation, help it to prosper, shape the international environment, deter, defend and compete across all domains, address vulnerability of civilians and generate strategic advantage. Yet it is our minimum credible independent nuclear deterrent which is assigned to the defence of NATO that works every single hour of every day to guarantee our security and that of our NATO allies.

However, the total number of active duty personnel is under 150,000, which is smaller than the US Marine Corps. Many would argue that the weakness of the Government’s Command Paper is that it reverses ends and means. Change is desperately needed, given the challenges from Russia and China, and our budget is far too small. Our Royal Navy has fewer than 30,000 and the Army is getting down to 72,000. The Royal Air Force—I am proud to be an honorary group captain in 601 Squadron—is fewer than 30,000. The total is just 133,000.

There is a delay with the F35 Lightning II fighter jets—there should be 48 of them. Can the Minister tell us when we will reach that number? We will now have fewer than 150 tanks. What is great news is that we are embarking on joint exercises. The Royal Air Force joined five other nations in the UK’s biggest aerial exercise, with 70 aircraft flown by six nations in March this year. I was delighted that it was called Exercise Cobra Warrior.

In 2019—I am like a stuck record—in the debate on the 70th anniversary of NATO I called for our expenditure to go up to 3%. I shall continue being a stuck record. AUKUS has been a superb security pact between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom for the Indo-Pacific region. Sir Stephen Lovegrove has said that the submarine element of the partnership was

“perhaps the most significant capability collaboration anywhere in the world in the past six decades”.

Does the Minister not think that the UK should join the Quad—the USA, Japan, Australia and India? That would be a wonderful global partnership.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, before leaving, said that Ukraine has, tragically, become a “battle lab” and that lessons learned would inform the future of Britain’s Armed Forces—in particular, drone defence and artillery. He pointed out that, at the end of the Second World War, 35% of the Army was artillery and that it is now only 8%. Are we learning those lessons?

In conclusion, £45.9 billion spending on defence is not enough. Yes, we may be spending the minimum 2% NATO requirement but, actually, given all the threats that there are in the world, the alliances are crucial, and NATO is crucial. Let us not go further than the Royal Gallery and the battle of Waterloo, and that wonderful painting. Without Marshal Blücher arriving, the Duke of Wellington would not have won the Battle of Waterloo. We need the alliances, we respect NATO and we are proud to be part of NATO.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Richards, mentioned that the UK was a medium-sized economy. Much as I respect him, I put it to your Lordships that we are not a superpower. There are only two superpowers: the United States and China; and one more emerging, India, which I predict by 2060 will be the largest economy in the world. But we are still the sixth-largest economy in the world and at the top table of the world, whether it is the G7 or the G20. We are the second-largest power in NATO. Most importantly, we have the strongest elements of soft power, whether it is the Royal Family, our Premier League football, the BBC or our universities. But soft power without hard power is absolutely useless. We need to support and invest in our Armed Forces and enforce that precious covenant between the public and the Armed Forces and we must never take them for granted. We must spend a minimum of 3% of GDP right now.