Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government, in the light of the publication of the State Pension uprating analysis on 29 September, what plans they have to provide a sensitivity analysis of the figures cited for future rates of pensioner relative poverty, using alternative assumptions for the effect of the triple lock on the level of the basic state pension and the new state pension, in line with those used by the OBR in its latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
Levels of pensioner poverty under the adjusted triple lock are projected to decline with relative pensioner poverty after housing costs estimated to fall from 14% in 2024/25 to 8% by 2049/50. However, the Government is not complacent on the issue of pensioner poverty. This is why we have asked the Pensions Commission to make recommendations on further support for lower-income pensioners in their final report. The Department for Work and Pensions has no plans to publish a separate sensitivity analysis using alternative OBR triple lock assumptions.
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government, in the light of the publication of the State Pension uprating analysis on 29 September, what proportion of average earnings they estimate the full rate of the new state pension will represent following the uprating due in April 2029; and what assumptions regarding average earnings growth and earnings levels underpin that estimate.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
The proportion of average earnings the new State Pension will reach in April 2029 will depend on the levels of inflation and wage growth in the coming years.
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government, in the light of the publication of the State Pension uprating analysis on 29 September, whether they intend to provide a version of Chart 1 on Projected changes in pensioner relative poverty which demonstrates pensioner relative poverty after housing costs under the current triple lock.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
The Government's policy is to move to using the adjusted triple lock from April 2030 and projections are published on a basis consistent with that policy.
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government, in the light of the publication of the State Pension uprating analysis on 29 September and its conclusion that the new state pension will reach a record high relative to earnings over the coming three years, how that conclusion was reached, including (1) the assumptions made about future earnings growth, (2) the assumptions made about future increases in the consumer price index and average earnings over the relevant period, and (3) the basis on which those assumptions were made.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
Historical average earnings growth and the Consumer Prices Index used in the analysis are consistent with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic assumptions published at the Spring Statement 2026.
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government whether the Department for Work and Pension's long-term model of pensioner incomes (Pensim3) is open access, including information on the underlying assumptions and formulae.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
Pensim3’s baseline data contains information from real individuals and is subject to data protection controls.
Pensim3’s economic and demographic assumptions align with OBR’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report and ONS’s population projections. Other assumptions are outlined in the relevant published results (e.g. future pensioner incomes: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/analysis-of-future-pension-incomes/analysis-of-future-pension-incomes).
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government if their policy position is as reported by the Office of Budget Responsibility, that the state pension age will reach 68 between 2037 and 2039, when and how this confirmation was given to the OBR; when they anticipate that the necessary legislation will be introduced; what formal notice period they will give of their intention to legislate accordingly; and what publicity they intend to issue so that those affected can adjust their retirement planning accordingly.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
The previous government committed to bring forward the rise in the State Pension age to 68 between 2037 and 2039.
The first chance this government will have to consider this issue will be via the State Pension age Review.
Asked by: Lord Davies of Brixton (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask His Majesty's Government whether the statement in the Office of Budget Responsibility's report Fiscal risks and sustainability, published in July, that their policy position is that the "state pension age reaches 68 between 2037 and 2039 [...] rather than [...] between 2044 and 2046 as is currently legislated for" is correct.
Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
The previous government committed to bring forward the rise in the State Pension age to 68 between 2037 and 2039.
The first chance this government will have to consider this issue will be via the State Pension age Review.