Lord Green of Deddington

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority.

A response to the Hon. Member's Parliamentary Question: HL3965 and HL3966 are attached.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond | National Statistician

Lord Green of Deddington

House of Lords

London

SW1A 0PW

12 December 2022

Dear Lord Green,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Questions asking how many arrivals by (1) Ukrainians and their dependants, (2) Hong Kong BNOs and their dependants, and (3) Afghan citizens and their dependants, are included in the latest Office for National Statistics net migration figures, published on 24 November; and when the International Passenger Survey (IPS) stopped being used as a significant element in calculating net migration; and what has taken its place (HL3965;HL3966).

In the Office for National Statistics (ONS) bulletin published on 24 November, Section 4, Migration Events[1] details the following published Home Office data included in the ONS’ total long-term international migration estimates:

Ukrainians: around 89,000 arrived in the UK in the year to June 2022

Afghans: around 21,000 arrived in the UK in the year to June 2022

For British nationals overseas (BN(O)) status holders and their families from Hong Kong, colleagues from the ONS and the Home Office are working together to resolve how we identify those that are long-term international migrants in the data. Home Office statistics show that around 76,000 visas were issued for the BN(O) route in the year ending June 2022. This will represent the upper bound for arrivals, as not all of those with a visa will arrive in the UK or stay long term. The ONS is also working to identify BN(O) status holders in their International Passenger Survey (IPS) data using country of birth and country of last residences as this may help provide a more robust estimate. Current analysis suggests that 28,000 British nationals with a country of birth of Hong Kong immigrated into the UK in the year ending June 2022.

The long-term international migration data from the IPS was the largest component of the LongTerm International Migration (LTIM) estimates until its suspension in March 2020 because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In August 2020 the ONS announced that they would not return to producing official migration statistics from the IPS because it had been stretched beyond its original purpose. The ONS now focuses on measuring actual migration, as opposed to intentions, using primarily administrative data (admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs)). The ONS’ International migration statistical design progress report: July 2022 provides more information.[2]

For the latest long-term international migration estimates; non-EU figures are based on Home Office Border Systems data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British Nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See the Measuring the data section[3] for more detail. Thank you for your continued interest in our international migration estimates.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022#migration-events

[2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ articles/internationalmigrationstatisticaldesignprogressreport/july2022

[3] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022#measuring-the-data

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority.

A response to the Hon. Member's Parliamentary Question: HL3965 and HL3966 are attached.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond | National Statistician

Lord Green of Deddington

House of Lords

London

SW1A 0PW

12 December 2022

Dear Lord Green,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Questions asking how many arrivals by (1) Ukrainians and their dependants, (2) Hong Kong BNOs and their dependants, and (3) Afghan citizens and their dependants, are included in the latest Office for National Statistics net migration figures, published on 24 November; and when the International Passenger Survey (IPS) stopped being used as a significant element in calculating net migration; and what has taken its place (HL3965;HL3966).

In the Office for National Statistics (ONS) bulletin published on 24 November, Section 4, Migration Events[1] details the following published Home Office data included in the ONS’ total long-term international migration estimates:

Ukrainians: around 89,000 arrived in the UK in the year to June 2022

Afghans: around 21,000 arrived in the UK in the year to June 2022

For British nationals overseas (BN(O)) status holders and their families from Hong Kong, colleagues from the ONS and the Home Office are working together to resolve how we identify those that are long-term international migrants in the data. Home Office statistics show that around 76,000 visas were issued for the BN(O) route in the year ending June 2022. This will represent the upper bound for arrivals, as not all of those with a visa will arrive in the UK or stay long term. The ONS is also working to identify BN(O) status holders in their International Passenger Survey (IPS) data using country of birth and country of last residences as this may help provide a more robust estimate. Current analysis suggests that 28,000 British nationals with a country of birth of Hong Kong immigrated into the UK in the year ending June 2022.

The long-term international migration data from the IPS was the largest component of the LongTerm International Migration (LTIM) estimates until its suspension in March 2020 because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In August 2020 the ONS announced that they would not return to producing official migration statistics from the IPS because it had been stretched beyond its original purpose. The ONS now focuses on measuring actual migration, as opposed to intentions, using primarily administrative data (admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs)). The ONS’ International migration statistical design progress report: July 2022 provides more information.[2]

For the latest long-term international migration estimates; non-EU figures are based on Home Office Border Systems data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British Nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See the Measuring the data section[3] for more detail. Thank you for your continued interest in our international migration estimates.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022#migration-events

[2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ articles/internationalmigrationstatisticaldesignprogressreport/july2022

[3] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/ bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022#measuring-the-data

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority. I have, therefore, asked the Authority to respond.

Lord Green of Deddington
House of Lords
London
SW1A 0PW

12 October 2021

Dear Lord Green,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Question requesting data for how many UK households there were (1) with a non-UK born household reference person, (2) with a UK-born household reference person, and (3) with a household reference person for whom the country of birth was not known (HL2843).

The Office for National Statistics is responsible for undertaking the Labour Force Survey (LFS), from which these estimates of household reference person by country of birth have been derived. Table 1 shows the number of households by the household reference person’s country of birth in the UK from 2010 to 2020¹.

The table contains estimates of the number of households for household reference persons who are UK born, non-UK born or whose country of birth is missing. The totals of each column may not add up to the total households figure due to rounding, and estimates are rounded to the nearest hundred. As the estimates are based on a survey, they are subject to sampling variability. This is because the sample selected is only one of a large number of possible samples that could have been drawn from the population.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

1. A household reference person (HRP) is the householder who owns the accommodation; is legally responsible for the rent; or occupies the accommodation as reward of their employment, or through some relationship to its owner who is not a member of the household. If there are joint householders, the one with the highest income is the HRP. If their income is the same, then the eldest one is the HRP.

The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) publishes data annually on the number of international students at UK higher education providers; they are available here: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/where-from.

The table below shows the number of international student (non-UK domiciled) enrolments at UK higher education providers between the academic years 2015/16 and 2019/20, the latest year for which there is available data.

HE student enrolments of non-UK domicile students

Academic years 2015/16 to 2019/20

UK HE providers

The table above is available at: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sb258/figure-9.

The most recent update to the International Education Strategy, published in February 2021, reaffirms the government’s commitment to increase the value of our education exports to £35 billion per year, and sustainably to increase the number of international higher education students hosted in the UK to 600,000 per year, both by 2030.

The decision was made to delay the November 2021 release of the National Statistics publication of National Insurance numbers allocated to adult overseas nationals following an investigation involving HMRC where a technical issue was identified which work is now underway to rectify. Once the work is complete and the data has been validated, we will notify users of our plans to publish the statistical back series in line with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice for Statistics.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is responsible for migration estimates and they announced in November 2021 their plan to include data from the DWP Registration And Population Interactions Dataset (RAPID) in their Administrative-Based Migration Estimates. The current RAPID data is not affected by this issue as it only covers the period to end March 2021.

All statistics produced by the Department for Work and Pensions are subject to routine quality assurance procedures before publication. During one of these procedures an underlying data issue was discovered in the quarterly National Statistics for ‘National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK’, which was due to be published on 25 November 2021. An assessment was made to understand the cause and identify if a solution could be swiftly implemented before the publication date. However, as it was not possible to do this, a decision was made to notify users both of the delay to the November release and that an update would be provided in January 2022.

The investigation is taking longer than first anticipated and will therefore impact the production of the next quarterly release of the statistics, so the update provided on 26 January 2022 informed users of the decision to suspend the release of the statistics. The statistical series will be reinstated as soon as possible after a solution is implemented, in line with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice for Statistics and a further progress update will be provided in early April 2022.

The Department for Work and Pensions Kickstart Scheme is making £2 billion available to eligible employers and Kickstart gateways. This Government has not set a limit to the number of Kickstart jobs that can be funded.

The Kickstart Scheme is a £2 billion programme, planning to create thousands of new jobs for young people aged 16-24 at risk of long term unemployment. Whilst we will not limit our ambitions, our first priority is to ensure the quality of experiences created for young people.

The Government does not have plans to withdraw from the Refugee Convention and its Protocol.

The Government does not have plans to withdraw from the Refugee Convention and its Protocol.

Our offer to British Nationals (Overseas), (BN(O)s), is not about the numbers. The Government has taken decisive action to uphold our commitments to the people of Hong Kong. As previously stated, this scheme is for eligible BN(O) status holders and their immediate family dependants. We estimate that there are up to 2.9 million BN(O) status holders. In reality, a large number of those who are eligible will want to stay in Hong Kong or relocate to other countries in the region.

As the Foreign Secretary said on 21 July, we constantly assess the numbers of those expected to take up the bespoke immigration route for British Nationals (Overseas) (BN(O)s) and their dependants. We estimate that there are 2.9 million eligible for BN(O) passports. Of those, there are around 350,000 passport holders. Many of those who may be eligible will want to stay in Hong Kong, or relocate temporarily. The UK will honour its historic and moral responsibilities to BN(O)s.

As the Foreign Secretary said in Parliament on 1 July, we constantly assess the numbers of those expected to take up the bespoke immigration route which we will put in place for British Nationals (Overseas) (BN(O)s) and their dependants. We estimate that there are up to 2.9 million status holders eligible for BN(O) passports. Of those, there are around 350,000 passport holders.

However, we recognise that there will be people from Hong Kong who do not qualify for these new arrangements. The Foreign Secretary is coordinating closely with international partners, particularly those with specific and close relationships with Hong Kong, to discuss what support they might provide.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility provides forecasts of the overall impact on economic growth of government policy, including those resulting from immigration policy. The next forecast will be provided on the 17^th of November alongside the Autumn Statement.

It is not appropriate to provide commentary on specific scenarios, but the government does consider relevant impacts in assessing potential changes to immigration policy.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility provides forecasts of the overall impact on economic growth of government policy, including those resulting from immigration policy. The next forecast will be provided on the 17^th of November alongside the Autumn Statement.

It is not appropriate to provide commentary on specific scenarios, but the government does consider relevant impacts in assessing potential changes to immigration policy.

The total UK Net Public Sector Contributions to the EEC during the period 1973 to 1993, adjusted to real 2019 prices, is equal to £51.5bn. The total UK Net Public Sector Contributions to the EU during the remaining period 1994 to 2019, adjusted to real 2019 prices, is equal to £174.7bn. These figures do not include receipts received by private UK entities, which would reduce the UK’s net contributions.

The total UK Net Public Sector Contributions to the EU budget during the period 1991 to 2019, adjusted to real 2019 prices, is equal to £182.6 billion (average £6.3 billion per annum). This figure does not include receipts received by private UK entities, which would further reduce the UK’s net contribution.

Analytical work has been undertaken across Government to support decision making in this process, and an Impact Assessment will be developed in due course.

The Home Office believes that this information is readily available to the Peer online.

The Home Office publishes data on asylum applications in the ‘Immigration System Statistics Quarterly Release’ on GOV.UK. Data on asylum applications by nationality and applicant type are published in table Asy_D01 of the Asylum and resettlement detailed datasets: found here. Information on how to use the dataset can be found in the ‘Notes’ page of the workbook. The latest data relates to the end of March 2023.

Information on future Home Office statistical release dates can be found in the ‘Research and statistics calendar’ on GOV.UK.

The Illegal Migration Bill represents a considerably stronger means of tackling the same issue that the differentiation policy sought to address: people making dangerous and unnecessary journeys through safe countries to claim asylum in the UK.

As the Prime Minister has said, the Government remains committed to reducing net migration over time, while ensuring we have the skills our economy needs to grow. The Government continues to keep the immigration system under review.

Our immediate priority is getting a grip on illegal migration, to stop the abuse of our system and stop the boats making illegal, dangerous and unnecessary journeys across the Channel for the profits of criminal people smuggling gangs.