Autumn Statement Resolutions

Debate between Tobias Ellwood and John Redwood

Monday 27th November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

Let me welcome you back from your important visit, Mr Speaker, and begin by welcoming the maiden speech from the hon. Member for Tamworth (Sarah Edwards). She will find this to be quite a robust, feisty place, where perhaps courtesy is not what it should be, but we should commend an exemplary maiden speech and wish her all the best in her parliamentary career.

I am grateful to catch your eye, Mr Speaker, for this important opportunity to comment on the Chancellor’s autumn statement, the Government’s update on the health of the nation’s finances. Members in all parts of the House have recognised that the backdrop to any discussion about our economy would not be complete without recognising the unprecedented, seismic events that have impacted the nation’s finances over the past few years: covid and the Ukraine conflict. Those once-in-a-generation events would have tested any Government, whoever was in power, as indeed they have tested Governments across Europe and beyond. Looking at how we compare with other nations puts the challenges we have experienced in perspective. In 2022, all but one of the G7 nations experienced higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the UK, so we have stabilised the nation’s finances.

It is time to move forward and grow our economy. It is time to take advantage of the welcome fiscal headroom to increase UK productivity; to continue to tackle the cost of living crisis by helping more people back into work; and to map out a clear economic vision for the future. I am sure that reducing national insurance, increasing benefit payments, along with the national minimum wage, and advancing the state pension are changes that will be welcomed, not just by the public but by Labour.

I say to the Minister that I was hoping for more support for the tourism and hospitality industry. The value of tourism to Britain is too often overlooked. It is worth £140 billion to our economy, it accounts for 6% of our GDP and 11% of our workforce are employed in this important sector. I welcome the continued extension of the 75% rate relief for hospitality, but I would like us to go further, with a permanent reduction in VAT for tourism. We saw that briefly during the covid crisis. I know that the discussion is taking place and perhaps—please—we will see that measure come out of the hat in next year’s spring statement. Tourism is vital to our economy and to Bournemouth, so reducing VAT in the tourism and hospitality sector is something I hope Ministers will consider.

[John Redwood]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that the problem is that the OBR’s forecasting never gives any credit for cutting a tax rate in order to get more revenue? This could be a good example of where that would work.

[Mr Ellwood]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right. The Centre for Economics and Business Research suggests that there is £10 billion to be made in lost GDP at the moment, as we are not attracting overseas visitors because our taxes are higher than those of our continental counterparts.

Looking at the bigger picture, finances certainly remain tight. The national debt, although falling as a percentage of GDP, as I said, remains too high. Our growth, although larger than Germany’s, is not where it should be. Given that we are the sixth largest economy in the world, we need to look at improving productivity, which remains sluggish, as it has been since 2008. A lot of these economic debates focus, understandably, on the micro level—the line-by-line budget allocations to Whitehall Departments, and the changes to general taxation, benefits and pensions—but how all those fiscal jigsaw pieces fit together is often overlooked. Our world is changing fast. Not only is it becoming more internationally competitive, but there is a question mark as to what our role actually is. I am reminded of what John Foster Dulles, the former US Secretary of State, said:

“Britain has lost an empire and not yet found a role.”

What we saw in the autumn statement was interesting indeed. The world is going digital, as IT changes every aspect of our lives: how we communicate, travel, do business and even strengthen our own security. That is all good news for the UK, as we have the third largest tech sector in the world, after the US and China. We are world leaders in pharmaceuticals, life sciences, creative industries, aerospace, fintech and artificial intelligence. With some of the best universities in the world, along with our globally recognised finance sector, we are well placed to become a high-tech superpower—another silicon valley. That is also good news for Bournemouth, because that is exactly where our area focuses; we are focused not just on tourism and financial services, but on the creative industries.

Afghanistan

Debate between Tobias Ellwood and John Redwood

Wednesday 18th August 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

I do not often mention my brother Jonathan, who was killed by an al-Qaeda affiliate in Bali in 2002. That prompted my personal interest in Afghanistan, a distant country that I visited a dozen times over the past two decades to better understand what we were doing to help to rebuild that troubled country. I pay tribute to our armed forces for what they did, and to what the Secretary of State for Defence and the armed forces are doing today in the evacuation.

It is with utter disbelief that I see us make such an operational and strategic blunder by retreating at this time. The decision is already triggering a humanitarian disaster, a migrant crisis not seen since the second world war and a cultural change in the rights of women, and it is once again turning Afghanistan into a breeding ground for terrorism. I am sorry that there will be no vote today because I believe the Government would not have the support of the House.

The Prime Minister is not in the Chamber, but he says that the future of Afghanistan is not written. Well, its future is very much more unpredictable because of our actions. I do not believe for a second that there will be a peaceful transition to the Taliban. They are not universally liked in the country. The Uzbek and Tajik warlords are regrouping as we speak. The Northern Alliance will reform once again and a bloody, terrible civil war will unfold.

[John Redwood]

Does my right hon. Friend have any advice for the Government on how they could take action to try to prevent the recurrence of a terrorist threat under Taliban control?

[Mr Ellwood]

My fear is that there will be an attack on the lines of 9/11 to bookend what happened 20 years ago, to show the futility of 20 years. We should never have left—I will come to that in a second—because after 20 years of effort, this is a humiliating strategic defeat for the west. The Taliban control more territory today than they did before 9/11.

I was born in the United States; I am a proud dual national and passionate about the transatlantic security alliance. Prior to him declaring his candidacy, I worked directly with President Biden on veterans’ mental health issues. He was the keynote speaker at a veterans reception here in the House of Commons, as my guest, so it gives me no joy to criticise the President and say that the decision to withdraw, which he inherited, but then chose to endorse, was absolutely the wrong call. Yes, two decades is a long time. It has been a testing chapter for Afghanistan, so the US election promise to return troops was obviously a popular one, but it was a false narrative.

First, the notion that we gave the Afghans every opportunity over 20 years to progress, and that the country cannot be helped forever so it is time to come home, glosses over the hurdles—the own goals—that we created after the invasion. We denied the Taliban a seat at the table back in 2001. They asked to attend the Bonn talks but Donald Rumsfeld said no, so they crossed the Pakistan border to rearm, regroup and retrain. How different the last few decades would have been had they been included. Secondly, we did not start training the Afghan forces until 2005, by which time the Taliban were already on the advance. Finally, we imposed a western model of governance, which was completely inappropriate for Afghanistan, with all the power in Kabul. That was completely wrong for a country where loyalty is on a tribal and local level. That is not to dismiss the mass corruption, cronyism and elitism that is rife across Afghanistan, but those schoolboy errors in stabilisation hampered progress and made our mission harder.

There is also the notion that we cannot fight a war forever. We have not been fighting for the last three years. The US and the UK have not lost a single soldier, but we had a minimalist force there—enough assistance to give the Afghan forces the ability to contain the Taliban and, by extension, give legitimacy to the Afghan Government. The US has more personnel based in its embassy here than it had troops in Afghanistan before retreating. Both the US and the UK have long-term commitments across the world, which we forget about. Japan, Germany and Korea have been mentioned. There is Djibouti, Niger, Jordan and Iraq, and ourselves in Cyprus and Kenya, for example, and the Falklands, too. It is the endurance that counts. Success is not rated on when we return troops home. Such presence offers assurance, represents commitment, bolsters regional stability, and assists with building and strengthening the armed forces. That is exactly what we were doing in Afghanistan.

Last year, the Taliban were finally at the negotiation table in Doha, but in a rush to get a result, Trump struck a deal with the Taliban—by the way, without the inclusion of the Afghan Government—and committed to a timetable for drawdown. All the Taliban had to do was wait. The final question is about whether the UK can lead or participate in a coalition without the US. Where is our foreign policy determined—here or in Washington? Our Government should have more confidence in themselves.