Ukraine

Baroness Smith of Newnham Excerpts

Wednesday 28th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

My Lords, marking the second anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine gives us another chance to reaffirm our support for Ukraine and its people—people who, in the defence not only of their freedom but of our freedom and our democracy, have suffered so much. So many have been killed and wounded. Cities, towns and villages have been ruined or destroyed.

Yet, in the face of that, Ukraine has stood tall, firm and resolute. Once again, all of us salute Ukraine’s courage and bravery. As a country, we are united in our support and our determination to see this through with them. We have seen this in military support, but also in Ukrainians welcomed into our homes, donations of assistance to Ukraine and continuing rallies on many of our streets, marking that sense of solidarity.

Can the noble Earl tell us whether the Government’s recent welcome announcement of further support for Ukraine will ensure that the ammunition shortfalls that the Ukrainian armed forces face will be speedily replenished? Do we have the stocks to do this quickly, and can we do all we can to ensure that such shortages are not experienced again? In part, this needs a boost to Britain’s industrial production. The Government have announced plans to enable this uplift in capacity to take place with respect to armaments. What progress has been made with respect to this, and what timeline do the Government expect in order for that increased capacity to be available to meet the ever-increasing need?

The chief of the Armed Forces said this week that addressing this shortage of ammunition could take months until the West agrees further steps to support Kyiv. What are these further steps, and what progress has been made to achieve them? Ukraine has had to withdraw at times, not because of a lack of desire to fight but because of a lack of ammunition. This cannot be allowed to happen again. I know the Government will agree with that, but we simply cannot read again in our papers that military withdrawal has had to take place because of the lack of necessary ammunition, let alone equipment.

Alongside raising the amount of ammunition supplied and the speed of supply, we need to maintain the diplomatic effort to maintain our unity. Can the noble Earl comment on President Macron’s calls for troops in Ukraine, which appeared to come from absolutely nowhere?

One of Putin’s mistaken beliefs was that the West would be weak in the face of his aggression. Is it therefore not significant to note again that the opposite has happened, with the very welcome strengthening of NATO? Finland is now a member and the last obstacles have been cleared for Sweden. Can the noble Earl outline the Government’s view of what Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is? Do the Government have a view on how they expect this to happen?

The Government have made many announcements, including the recent one about 200 Brimstone missiles. Can we expect a full military aid action plan? Is there to be an implementation plan for the welcome UK-Ukraine security arrangement and agreement?

Alongside equipment, the training of personnel is also crucial. We have trained up to 60,000 individuals so far, which is a great feat on our part. Can the Minister update us on the latest news regarding Operation Interflex, which is our main training effort?

The morale of the Ukrainian people has been immense, and we must do all we can alongside our military support to maintain that morale. What thought have the Government given to this aspect of the war? In other words, what thought have they given to maintaining civilian morale in the face of the aggression and hardships that we all understand?

The shocking death of Alexei Navalny shows the sort of regime that we are dealing with. Success for Ukraine is our success, and it is crucial to the future of freedom and democracy in Europe. The resolve of the Ukrainian people is immense, and they should know the strength of our resolve and that of our friends to stand with them. It is a task we will not shirk, and they should hear that message again.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, from these Benches, I echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. We stand here today supporting our Ukrainian friends. Across the Chamber and across the country, we give our support to Ukraine. It is unwavering, and it needs to remain so, because Ukraine’s war is our war. If we flinch, that only gives succour to Vladimir Putin, so it is absolutely right that we all stand up and say that we support His Majesty’s Government in the aid that they have been giving to Ukraine. The aim of this evening is perhaps to ask a few questions about what further support can be given; our own defence capabilities, to ensure that we have the ammunition we are seeking to give and are backfilling appropriately; the defence industrial base, perhaps; and what assessment His Majesty’s Government have made of the ammunition support that Russia is getting from North Korea and Iran.

First, it is very clear that there is a concern about a lack of ammunition. President Zelensky has said that we must be very careful not to have an artificial deficit in ammunition. Can the Minister tell the House what preparations His Majesty’s Government are making to ensure that we can supply or help supply Ukraine not just this week and next week but for the months and years to come? What discussions are His Majesty’s Government having with other Governments in Europe and in NATO about their support? There have been problems about the pledges of ammunition being delivered from other European countries. We are all in a similar situation, and we are all trying to procure weapons from the same industrial base, even if we have our own defence industries. What co-operation do we have, and what discussions are we having? Are we ensuring that, collectively, we can provide Ukraine with what is needed?

I think there is a real issue. The Secretary of State, making the Statement in the other place last week, talked about the new UK drone strategy. Obviously, drone warfare is one of the issues that has come to the fore in recent years. In Ukraine, but also in the Middle East, particularly the Red Sea, we have seen drones that appear to come from Iran. Could we hear what assessment His Majesty’s Government have made about the potential of Iranian drone warfare? Do we have any sense of the numbers?

Beyond that—I realise that sanctions probably fall in the remit of the FCDO; certainly, Minister Mitchell talked about sanctions in his Statement today—one of the issues about sanctions is that they ought to be stopping Russia being able to export oil and gas in the way that it has been doing. Are His Majesty’s Government satisfied that the existing sanctions are working sufficiently well? In particular, if the rumours are true that among the other countries buying oil now is India, which is one of our Commonwealth partners, what discussions are His Majesty’s Government having to try to persuade India and other Commonwealth partners that have not necessarily bought into the same level of commitment to Ukraine as we have? What are His Majesty’s Government doing to try to persuade them to support the sanctions?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, let me start by restating that the UK’s commitment to Ukraine remains absolute, unequivocal and unwavering. Putin’s appalling, illegal and unprovoked attack on the Ukrainian people must be repeatedly condemned by all sides. The Government are extremely grateful for the exceptional level of support across all Benches throughout the last two years.

The UK has been and remains at the very forefront of international efforts to end Russia’s war. With that support, Ukraine has retaken over half the land occupied by Russia, pushed the Black Sea fleet eastwards out of Crimea and opened up grain export routes that do not depend on Russia. Ukraine has made significant progress—not consistently, but with enormous effort and huge fortitude—in repelling an extremely focused and aggressive invader. As we know, it is the second anniversary and, as those in the know have said for a long time, this will be a long war. A lot of the questions that have been asked are about the ability of the West to support and maintain the pressure and ability of the Ukrainian people to mount a continuous defence of their country.

I will take some of the questions that have been raised. On the question of replenishment and available stocks, the Government, not only here but also in Europe and NATO, are moving at speed to attempt to invest in industrial strategy that will up the rate of production. In this country, we have done a number of deals, both through the International Fund for Ukraine and also with some of our armament suppliers, to increase that rate. One of the most commonly mentioned ones is the 155mm artillery ammunition, where the actual rate has been increased by a factor of eight.

That is not to say for one minute that we are able to supply—and I do not think one would expect a country of our size to be able to supply—the full necessity, but in working with our partners, both in NATO and the EU, there is no doubt that the rate of supply will increase again, hopefully to the level of fire rate, which will allow the Ukrainians to hold their ground and ultimately push back. It is not an instant solution and, as I am sure noble Lords will be aware, there are some details that I am not at liberty to discuss, but we are doing everything we can to improve our own stocks and availability and restrict the Russian Federation from obtaining materials.

Some of the further steps we are taking, particularly when getting other countries involved and stepping up to the mark, are, as you would expect, through diplomatic channels. That is extremely important, because when it comes down to it, winning on the battlefield is one thing, but it is diplomacy that really wins the day in the end. That is consistent with all the different issues we are facing now: we restrict the weapons, we concentrate on diplomacy, we restrict the flow of money and we continue to supply all that we possibly can.

On drones, the noble Baroness is absolutely right. The whole concept of warfare has changed significantly. As part of the £2.5 billion that we are gifting to Ukraine in 2024-25, £200 million is going to go to drone technology and will produce an enormous quantity of drones. The challenge with Iranian drones is that, although of course we will do whatever we can to restrict some of the key components, there are malign forces that are only too happy to supply those key parts which are so hard to get hold of.

On sanctions, we have introduced a sanction level that has never been produced before against a sovereign state. With our international partners, it is a major level of sanctions. Some 1,900 individuals and entities have been sanctioned, 1,700 of those since the start of the invasion. They include 29 banks, which is 90% of the Russian sector, and 131 oligarchs, which is £147 billion. The fall in Russian trade to the UK is now 99.7%. The sanctions are working, and we know that Putin is having trouble coping with them—in fact, he admits to it. How those seized assets should be applied, either for rebuilding Ukraine or for humanitarian aid, is an issue which is under constant discussion.

The question on NATO is an extremely good one. The primacy of NATO in this whole enterprise is paramount. The accession of Finland and the final acceptance of Sweden—I understand there is going to be a signing next week, which is great news—shows the Russian Federation the determination that NATO has. I cannot imagine what President Macron thinks he is doing suggesting that NATO troops become involved; I rather hope it is a question of translation at some point, because it is just extraordinary.

We continue to train a very high number of personnel —in fact, we trained an additional 10,000 in the past few months. One challenge that we have with training, and we have about a dozen allies who help us with it, is that we are not certain how many people are still coming out of Ukraine wishing to be trained. I am sure that noble Lords will know that the Ukrainian Government are looking at the conscription age to try to boost the numbers going into their forces. However, despite some of the setbacks, morale remains remarkably high. More than 80% of Ukrainians are determined to regain all territory. President Zelensky still has an extraordinarily high approval rating. Even the change of commanders, which is fairly normal in war, because after a couple of years people get tired and there needs to be some new thinking, has been well accepted.

The death of Navalny is a clear indication of the sort of people we are dealing with. They will stop at absolutely nothing. It is just another example of the complete lack of any form of moral compass that is being faced.

My final point is that the approach we are taking with some of our allies and some of the Commonwealth about buying oil and gas from Russia is one of diplomacy. The challenge is that, as I understand it, they know they are not necessarily doing the right thing but the Russians are charging a price that they almost cannot resist. That is a real diplomatic challenge and it is something that we need to concentrate on with enormous application and force.

Before taking Back-Bench questions, I will just say that I concur entirely with the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that, as the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion passes, we must all recognise that Putin simply must not be allowed to prevail, at whatever cost it takes.