Productivity

Chris Philp Excerpts

Wednesday 17th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Chris Leslie]

I will make a little progress, if I may, and then give way.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s recent forecasts have lamented the persistent weakness of our recent productivity. According to the OBR, if our productivity per worker was closer to 4%, our national debt would be £350 billion lower by the end of this Parliament. Those are big numbers, but that is £5,000 less debt for each person in this country. The productivity issue is therefore absolutely crucial, and it is linked to the health of our public finances. Translated into potential GDP, it would mean growth of 3.7% by 2019-20, which is the sort of growth that we need in this country. The OBR is right to warn that improvements in growth and living standards very much depend on our productivity performance and to say that it is the most important and uncertain part of its economic forecasts.

Quite simply, if sustainable productivity growth fails to materialise, the Chancellor will just continue to miss his deficit reduction targets, however hard he may try to distract us with his dreams about permanent surpluses. Although productivity traditionally drops off during a recession, seven years after the global banking crisis our productivity is still 1.7% below the pre-crisis peak, and a whopping 16% below the level implied by the pre-crisis trend. Last year, productivity growth was just 0.2%; in 2013, it was negative, at minus 0.3%; and in 2012, minus 1.2%. That is just not good enough.

[Chris Philp (Croydon South) (Con)]

The figure that the hon. Gentleman has not mentioned is, of course, the productivity figure for 2009—the last year in which Labour was in government—and in that year it dropped by a staggering 2.6%, the highest for the last 25 years.

[Chris Leslie]

This might be a shock to the hon. Gentleman, and I am not sure where he was at the time, but there was a global banking crisis—[Interruption.] I know it is a shock to Conservative Members, because in their script it has been expunged from the record, as if it never happened.

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[Michelle Thomson]

I thank my hon. Friend for his comments. I absolutely agree with them, and I am going to cover that issue further in my remarks.

We must equip our people, who live in and give to Scotland, with the skills— supporting them with free university education—the health, the ambition and the engagement to contribute to making Scotland a great place.

I mentioned manufacturing, and the SNP supports measures to boost the sector, including targeted research and development tax credits and support provided through the Scottish business development bank. However, the lack of access to business funding remains the biggest critical factor affecting small business, which is the lifeblood of our economy. I still await any evidence of that being recognised and acted on by the Government.

The plan promotes innovation, creating a culture of ambition and drive where we reward the risk-taking entrepreneurs—those who drive real change and live by creative and adaptive thinking. Our plan also supports our excellent universities in commercialising the work they do. Finally, it promotes inclusivity, in the form of building a labour market that can contribute equitably, by promoting fair work and sustainable jobs and by taking positive steps to ensure that families can contribute and lead the way in supported childcare. With further devolution of employment law and the minimum wage, the Scottish Parliament could boost pay and standards, and raise employee satisfaction still further. We want to see more sustainable and high-quality employment opportunities, with a partnership approach to employment conditions. We have also proposed a £2 rise in the minimum wage to £8.70 by 2020 and have actively promoted the living wage.

The Scottish Government are doing what they can with the devolved powers they currently have. Given Scotland’s impressive relative performance since 2007, they have been successful. The truth is that the UK operates a failed and outdated business model, one that delivers for the few but not for the many. With its focus on the City of London and its neglect of key manufacturing and other high value added sectors, it has failed to deliver for the people of Scotland, as well as for many across many other parts of the UK.

[Chris Philp]

Does the hon. Lady not welcome the fact that the UK has the highest growth in the G7, the highest level of employment on record and the lowest unemployment since 1975? Does she not welcome those things?

[Michelle Thomson]

Of course I welcome those things. What I am suggesting is that we can do much better and that we have the ambition in Scotland. I hear a lot of talk, but not enough about substantive ambition. We need to do a lot more and we in Scotland are ready for that.

Delivering more meaningful economic powers to the Scottish Parliament, not the extremely limited ones included in the Scotland Bill, would allow a much more holistic and comprehensive economic strategy. With full tax, investment and employment powers, the Scottish Government could implement policies to boost economic growth and raise productivity levels in Scotland. We have the ambition.

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[Mr Iain Wright (Hartlepool) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to follow the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood). I seem to recall reading in the Financial Times three or four weeks ago an extremely perceptive article by him on productivity, so it is a real pleasure to follow him. He has given these issues careful thought.

I am pleased that we are discussing productivity so early in this Parliament. UK output per hour is about a fifth below that of the rest of the G7. It is the largest gap since 1991. In France, output per hour has increased by 2%. In the US, it has increased by 9%. Ours has not shifted. It has been said time and again that if we want rising living standards and a historically decent long-term economic growth trend of 2.5% or 3%, productivity needs to improve.

[Chris Philp]

In France, productivity figures may well have been achieved at the expense of extremely high unemployment. Is the hon. Gentleman suggesting that he would like to see very high unemployment here in exchange for fractionally better productivity?

[Mr Wright]

I represent a constituency in the north-east that has suffered and still bears the scars of long-term unemployment. I do not want to see unemployment at all. We need to address that. But in order to remain competitive in the global economy, we must address productivity.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury said that not all sectors of the economy had been affected by stagnating productivity. It is true. High-value manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and automotives have seen huge leaps in productivity in recent years. They have led to better, more innovative products that are more competitive than our rivals’ products, and which are sold in increasing numbers around the world. He mentioned Nissan in Sunderland, which produces a car every 61 seconds, to rival any other car plant on earth. This week we are seeing the Paris air show, where about £7.8 billion-worth of products from enterprises based in the UK have been sold around the world. We need to encourage this virtuous cycle, because that will lead to more well-paid jobs in these sectors. It is the model of the British economy that we should be encouraging.

To be fair, credit must be given to Vince Cable and David Willetts when they were in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills for continuing the approach set out by the Labour Government. That long-term approach, a mature business policy transcending individual Parliaments and thinking about what is required for our economy for the next 20 or 30 years, gives business the confidence to invest for the long term. We have seen the dividends of such an approach in globally competitive sectors such as aerospace and automotives, but I worry that we have seen no endorsement of that approach from the new Business Secretary. It is concerning that in his interview in the Financial Times about two weeks ago, he seemed to draw a line under the industrial strategy that has helped competitive sectors succeed in Britain.

Great examples of business-Government collaboration, such as the Automotive Council, the Aerospace Growth Partnership and the Aerospace Technology Institute, which have brought billions of pounds of investment into Britain, no longer seem to have Ministers’ attention. Is the new Business Secretary going to adopt a new approach? Is that long-term business policy going to wither on the vine on his watch? That would be to the detriment of long-term, high-value economic success and improvements in productivity. I hope that when he responds, the Minister will provide clarity as to what the new Government’s industrial strategy will be.

A key way to improve our competitiveness and productivity is to invest in new technology and innovation. However, our long-term performance in that respect is woeful and has been for far too long. UK gross domestic research and development expenditure, as a percentage of our GDP, peaked in 1986 at 2.03%. In the past 15 years or so, R and D spend as a percentage of GDP has been in the range of 1.59% to 1.73%, well below the EU average and significantly below ambitiously innovative nations. South Korea spends five times as much on R and D—not as a percentage of its economy, but the actual amount—as the average European nation, and that relentless focus on innovation and moving up the value chain has reaped massive rewards. Half a century ago, South Korea was poorer than Bolivia and Mozambique; now, it is richer than Spain and New Zealand. That is the lesson we have to learn.

We are living in what could be the most significant era of challenge and innovation for humanity. Britain’s historic strengths in science and in areas such as pharmaceuticals, aerospace and motor vehicles should and could be harnessed much more and spread throughout the economy in a much more balanced way. We are complacent in the extreme if we think we can carry on as before and not provide more resources to R and D. So will the Government commit to prioritising science? What is the future of the catapult centres, which have seen Government and industry collaborate on a range of issues relating to technology and innovation? Will funding be secure in those areas?

A further way in which we will rise up the productivity chain and in competitiveness is by emphasising skills. The days 40 years ago when somebody in my constituency would leave school on a Friday at the age of 15, start work at the steelworks on the following Monday and stay there for 35 years have gone. That will never come back. The modern British workforce will need to adapt and retrain and, crucially, be given the opportunity to do so. Men and women in Hartlepool and elsewhere may be made redundant in their 30s and 40s, and will need the means to retrain for a new career—quite possibly several different careers. But BIS, supposedly the Department for growth, is cutting the adult skills budget by 11% in this financial year.

The total budget from the Department for adult further education and skills funding will fall not just in real terms, but by 5% in absolute terms. When the BIS cuts took place during this Parliament, announced by the Chancellor in the Queen’s Speech debate a couple of weeks ago, £450 million was stripped out of further and higher education. That will not give us a modern, innovative workforce.

Should we not be prioritising adult skills? We should have flexibility areas to ensure that we can maintain Britain’s future prosperity. As Neil Carberry, CBI director for employment and skills, said today:

“If we are to deliver sustainable higher wage growth, we need to see a rise in productivity. That means businesses investing in skills, and the Government helping firms innovate by supporting investment in next month’s Budget.”

I hope that for the sake of future prosperity, productivity gains and our competitiveness as a nation, the Government will respond to those concerns and make sure that we can be a high-value, innovative nation that can compete with the rest of the world.

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[Chris Philp (Croydon South) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow so many excellent maiden speeches, and such a passionate speech from the hon. Member for Bristol West (Thangam Debbonaire). It is a particular pleasure for me to speak in this debate. Over the past 15 years, I have set up and run businesses of my own, one of which I managed to float on the stock market.

It is interesting that Labour Members chose this topic. It is rather like the dog that did not bark. Let us think about all the topics that they might have chosen, but did not. They did not choose employment; that is no surprise, because it is at record levels. They did not choose unemployment; that is no surprise, because it is at its lowest levels since 1975. They did not choose the deficit; that is no surprise, because it has halved. They did not choose inflation; that is no surprise, because it is zero. They did not choose wage growth; again, that is no surprise, because it is now running at 2%. Instead, they chose to focus on this one economic indicator. What the shadow Chancellor forgot to mention when he reeled off the recent figures was the level of productivity during the last year of the Labour Government. In 2009, productivity fell by 2.6%, which was a far bigger drop than we saw in any year during the last Parliament.

It is fair to say, however, that international comparisons suggest that there are opportunities for improvement. It is also instructive to compare different sectors. As we heard earlier from my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (John Redwood), both the oil and gas and the finance sectors have declined somewhat in the last few years—for reasons that he explained— and they were among the most productive sectors. Nevertheless, there are a number of industries from which we can learn, most conspicuously the automotive and aeronautical manufacturing industry, whose productivity has grown by a staggering 56% in the last six years. A British worker now manufactures, on average, 11.5 cars per year, up from just 9.3 five years ago. That is an impressive improvement.

Both the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Bank of England have published interesting reports on this subject, which I sincerely commend to fellow Members. They cite as a general cause of declining productivity —not specific to the United Kingdom—a lack of accessibility to capital that could be invested in better plant and machinery, combined with cheap labour. Firms are tempted to be lazy and hire such labour, rather than investing in machinery or technology.

I am pleased that, in the last five years, the Government have taken action to deal with both those issues, most recently by raising the minimum wage by 3%—the largest increase since 2008—and by encouraging banks to lend more. I hope that in the next five years they will continue to increase the minimum wage and encourage banks to lend more to operating businesses, because I believe that both those measures will help to address the productivity issues that have been raised today.

The Government have taken extremely compelling action in a number of other areas, not least in reducing energy costs, in rolling out broadband, in reducing regulations—£10 billion in the last Parliament and the same again this year—and in reducing corporation tax to just 20%, the lowest level in the G7. In the light of all that, it is no wonder that we are growing so strongly and that wages are now growing by 2% a year. In my view, that is a leading indicator of productivity increases. I am delighted to be supporting the Government’s record and I look forward to it continuing for the next five years.