Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill (Second sitting)

Chris Vince Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 15th July 2025 Public Bill Committees

[Ms Julie Minns (Carlisle) (Lab)]

Q I should have said this morning that I previously met with Alfanar prior to the publication of the Bill. Mr McKiernan, it is quite clear that you are very proud of your company, and very ambitious for its future. Do you think the SAF mandate is challenging enough, or could it go further?

Doug McKiernan: That is a good question. I am not a particularly good judge of financial investment—I am a technical person—but I looked at the quotas for the e-fuels, and if they went further, I believe they would drive the development of the technology harder, because it would bring more investment into that particular area. To me, 3.5% by 2040 seems quite low—I think that we could probably scale up and do blends where that would be significantly higher.

[Chris Vince (Harlow) (Lab/Co-op)]

Q Partly because you are based in Oxfordshire, my mind goes to universities. I wondered—based on what was said by a previous contributor—where we are with this technology compared with other countries. I do not know whether you are working with universities, but I am sure you are working with young people to develop skills. Is there is a risk, if the Bill is not passed and we did not get the RCM, that some of the skills that you are developing will be lost to other countries?

Doug McKiernan: There is no question about it. The people who we have recruited have been researching, and have done not only doctorates but post-docs in this area. They have been working in it for nine or 10 years, hoping that there was a company out there that would recruit them and turn their R&D into a reality. These people are very passionate about their career and what they want to do. They are not going to work for the money; they come to make a difference. We have recruited a lot of those people. They will go wherever the company is that will make what they want to do happen.

[Mr Kohler]

Q Have you overcome the technical problems? Once you have the CO₂, is the technical process now scalable, or are there still many issues involved in it?

Doug McKiernan: Our technology at the moment has to be scalable. When I go to the Jet A-1 ASTM committee at the end of the year, it has to be scalable. That is part of getting of getting the certification. We have to have a scalable process as well as a quality of fuel—so yes, we are there.

--- Later in debate ---

[Tom Collins (Worcester) (Lab)]

Q You have just mentioned that you are looking broadly at SAF production and how that is going to play out into the future. Compared with other northern European countries, the UK has excellent access to renewable energy, and we had a very early responding hydrogen industry. What do you see as the UK’s unique opportunities in SAF production?

Ruben van Grinsven: There are two elements. One is the fundamentals: affordable renewable energy, other feedstocks, then the cost of building plants, labour, and everything else. At the moment, in terms of the fundamentals of renewable electricity, the UK does not have a clear advantage because power prices are slightly more expensive, and most of the renewable power in the UK is intermittent. That is an important thing that needs to be overcome.

You have a slight disadvantage compared with, for instance, the Nordics, such as Sweden and Finland; they have a lot of hydro and stable baseload renewable power. On the fundamental side, especially for power, I think there are other places that are currently a bit more competitive. However, many of the other elements, such as feedstock supply, labour and knowledge, are quite similar.

The biggest differentiator is probably the legislative and regulatory landscape. You are creating a market through mandates, which I think is extremely powerful. If you also increase investment certainty through an RCM, that element is unique and, at this point in time, very helpful.

[Chris Vince]

Q Obviously, the Bill is trying to make it easier for us to produce SAF in this country, which is really important. I gather—if this is correct—that part of your role is to source SAF around the world. Do you feel there will be a greater need, and therefore a strong argument that we should be pushing ahead with SAF and producing it here in Britain? Although you said you cannot commit to where you will buy your SAF because of cost, would you say you will be in a place where you need more and more—and so it is very likely that you will have to source SAF from Britain, because you will need as many sources as possible?

Ruben van Grinsven: Especially for the second and third generation, SAF needs to develop. I think the consensus is that HEFA-based SAF is, at this moment, the most mature and affordable, so it is a great option. However, we also all believe that we are going to run out of feedstock at a certain time.

If you want to continue decarbonising aviation, you need additional forms of SAF—and that is where the second and third generations come in. We need to start developing those now, to learn how it is done and establish the technology and the fundamentals behind it. Starting that now is essential, and doing it in the UK could potentially give you a head start. If you do this before everybody else, you would have a technological and commercial head start, which could be an advantage.

[Greg Smith]

Q If the Bill becomes an Act, Shell will find itself in a peculiar place given that it will be both a levy payer, as a fossil fuel producer, and a developer of SAF potentially looking to benefit from the strike price. The Government put an analysis in the public domain on Second Reading: they suggested that the ultimate cost to the end user, such as somebody getting a flight—there will be a different calculation for those using air freight—will be plus or minus £1.50. Witnesses earlier suggested that that might be a “conservative” estimate—in their own words. Where would Shell see the ultimate cost pass on to the end user?

Ruben van Grinsven: The principle makes sense: at the end of the day, additional cost will find its way to the end user. We do not have enough information at this point in time to calculate what the cost is going to be because a lot of the details of the Bill are unknown. We would like to better understand how this is going to work, what the volumes are, what the timing is going to be, and how we will organise the contracts between the supplier and the off-taker. There are a lot of things that we do not know at this point, and therefore it is difficult to model what the final cost of the levy is going to be for the end consumer. I do not know; it is difficult to answer.

On top of that, I think it is going to change over time. Over time, if the market is short and the prices are high, money might flow towards the levy, so it would be like a negative levy but then it might turn into a positive levy. It is very difficult to assess that and put a number on it.

--- Later in debate ---

[Greg Smith]

Q This is my final question before we get to go through the Bill in detail on Thursday and next Tuesday. Accepting the agnostic position, has anything you have heard today from the various companies who have given evidence, be that global giants such as Shell, UK-based innovators such as Zero Petroleum or the companies developing SAFs from waste, changed your thinking on whether there might be emerging winners and losers, given some of the challenges that we have heard about—not least the municipal waste challenges?

Mike Kane: As the Minister leading on the Bill, I would say, “My kingdom for a chemistry degree.” Actually, Mark said something that I thought was very pertinent towards the end: we just have to allow the technology to emerge. That way, as we get to the power-to-liquids and the harder piece to do, in five, 10 or 15 years, there will be a market for it. The beauty of the Bill is that we can let contracts over five or 10 years.

Personally, even though Exxon has reservations about this measure, the only emotion I would convey to Exxon is thanks for producing this fuel now, in this country. Exxon is happy about the SAF mandate; its issue is with the revenue certainty mechanism. That is an area where, once the market is established, the Government have an exit strategy; once the market begins to work, the then Secretary of State will have ways out of it, because Government will not need to be in it once we have established it.

[Chris Vince]

Q The evidence session has been very positive—I think you would agree—with a lot of positive evidence about the Bill and sustainable aviation fuel in general. I have the same question that I have asked a number of those giving evidence today: will you elaborate on what you think would be the risks and potential disadvantages to the UK, if we were to stall on the Bill and not pass it on Third Reading?

Mike Kane: First, I thank you, Chris—you have been a great advocate for aviation since you came to Westminster in 2024, with Stansted airport near your constituency. The No. 1 risk is not doing this—that is the risk. I think Matt from Heathrow and Rob from Airlines UK said that in our approach to getting to net zero by 2050, we have a number of Government policies—airspace modernisation, leadership at CORSIA, the emissions trading scheme, the £2.3 billion investment in the Aerospace Technology Institute and hydrogen regulatory development—but that 40% of that pathway is the Bill. If we do not pass it, we are in serious trouble about decarbonising the industry. That is the key risk.

[Tom Collins]

Q We heard some of the evidence about how effective the RCM could be in light of the difference that CfDs have made. You have already explained how to manage the levers and the number of contracts allocated to get the economics right, but can you explain how that sits alongside the SAF mandate to help us to steer UK innovation and maximise the opportunities for the UK to lead in this sector?

Mike Kane: When we came into Government in July, we had two key aviation policies. The first was airspace modernisation, and we set up the UK Airspace Design Service and passed it into legislation just the other week. In addition to improving resilience in our skies, we hope that that measure will stop planes circling and allow those that currently do not fly in a straight line to fly in a straight line, which reduces the cost of fuel—to go back to the shadow Minister’s point. Lahiru from easyJet said in his evidence that the best energy is the energy we do not use, and airspace modernisation helps us with that piece.

The second part of our manifesto commitment was SAF. After we were elected, we laid the mandate for 2% of all aviation fuel in the UK to be SAF. That came into force on 1 January. Airlines are sourcing SAF and getting supplies of it, but too much of it comes from abroad. While we have a good industry in the UK, companies need the confidence to scale it up.

I will make no party political points, but four or five years ago we were promised that by 2025 five plants would be up and running. If I were going there, I would not be starting from here, but we are getting on with doing this now. I think everyone on this Committee can be extraordinarily proud that this will be the moment that we stepped up and began to decarbonise the aviation industry.