Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Lord Falconer of Thoroton Excerpts

Wednesday 15th December 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

My Lords, we are debating Amendment 43, which was tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, and proposed a turnout threshold of 25 per cent. We are also debating Amendment 44B from my noble friend Lord Grocott, which proposed a 50 per cent turnout threshold. I thought that we were not debating Amendments 44A and 45A from the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, which propose 40 per cent, but the noble Lord has, no doubt tempted by the terms of the debate, put forward issues in relation to it. However, we will not come to votes in relation to those amendments until Monday, so it is entirely a matter for the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, as to what he says then. We are not debating Amendment 43A, from my noble friend Lord Rooker, which says the vote has to be 1 million votes ahead, and we are not debating Amendment 44 from the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, which says that there must be a majority in each kingdom of the United Kingdom.

This is an important constitutional debate. I do not go down the route that the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, tempts us down, which is to say that AV is such an appalling system that we really need something very substantial before we change to it. We have to look at this issue on the basis of it being a major constitutional change. Our constitution has developed over the past three decades, whereby a substantial majority in the House of Commons is not regarded as adequate for substantial constitutional changes such as staying in the European Union, devolving powers to Scotland and Wales and, now, fundamentally changing the voting system. That approach to the constitution is reflected by practically every developed democracy in the world whereby something more than the normal vote in Parliament is required. If that approach is the right one, and I sincerely believe that it is the right one—and it is plainly an approach shared by the coalition Government, who have rightly regarded a referendum as necessary before the change is made—we need to dig a little deeper to see what sort of referendum is required to legitimise the change. I emphasise “legitimise”, because what is being required is something that makes the public accept that a significant change in our constitution has legitimacy.

If one looks at the sorts of turnout that one might reasonably expect if the turnout reflected other sorts of votes, one gets an indication of what sort of turnout one might get in this case. Approximately 20 per cent of the electorate in the referendum will also vote in the Welsh Assembly or Scottish Parliament elections; roughly the turnout for those is about 50 per cent, so 20 per cent of 50 per cent equals 10 per cent of the population voting. Approximately 60 per cent will vote in local authority elections, where the average turnout is 34 per cent, which produces approximately 20 per cent of the population. Some 20 per cent of the population will not vote on anything other than the referendum. It is not unreasonable to suppose that the turnout in relation to those voting only in the referendum could be as low as 20 per cent, which would produce a turnout of 5 per cent of the population. If one adds 10 per cent to 5 per cent to 20 per cent, you get 35 per cent. So on the basis of reasonable estimates by reference to other sorts of elections, you get 35 per cent of the population voting in this referendum. If it was close, that would mean that maybe as few as 19 per cent of the population would have voted for the change. The purpose of having a special rule about major constitutional change—and I have not heard anyone dispute that this is major constitutional change—is that there should be some special procedure to give the change legitimacy.

The idea that 19 per cent of the electorate, voting in favour of the change, gives the degree of legitimacy that is required seems to be wrong. In those circumstances, it looks pretty obvious that something else is required other than simply a referendum. The importance of having legitimacy is that we do not want to enter a phase in which our constitutional system of voting changes every time there is a change of government. If, therefore, there is to be a change—I do not need to quote Nick Clegg saying that this is the most important change since 1832—it is obvious that there has not been a change in our voting system for well over 100 years. This will inevitably have an effect on the make-up of the House of Commons. People will regard the system chosen as being a significant contributor to who won the election.

How do we deal with the issue of legitimacy in those circumstances if simply—

[Lord Rennard]

The noble and learned Lord is a very distinguished member of the previous Government, who brought forward the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act. It was carried through the other place before the general election with provision for a referendum on the alternative vote to be held before October 2011. It did not provide any provision whatever for a threshold. Will the noble and learned Lord tell us why that was not considered appropriate by his Government? On the issue of legitimacy, he suggests that it is terribly important that there should be enough people voting to justify anything. Does he recall that that Government in 2005 were elected with 35 per cent of the vote of British people on a 61 per cent turnout? In other words, only about 21 per cent of the electorate voted for that Government. Does he consider that that was legitimate?

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

First, I was not a member of the Government that put it forward. I think they were wrong not to have a turnout threshold in relation to it. Secondly, 35 per cent voting for the Government is approximately double the number that could vote for a change in the constitution. The critical point that I am making is that there is not a system in the world in a developed democracy that does not require something out of the ordinary before you make a change in the constitution. Why is that such a common provision right throughout democracies? It is because people understand that to make such a permanent change is much more important than changing a Government—you can throw the Government out in five years or four years, or in our system, even in two and a half years if they lose authority. You are stuck with the change for a long time. So please, on the Benches over there, think not about the result you want, but about what sustains our democracy. A change that comes about through 19 per cent supporting it may not be a change that has legitimate support. So our position—

[Lord Maclennan of Rogart]

Does the noble and learned Lord not accept that in the history of constitutional development in this country we have seen change—and we have seen progressive change. I ask him to listen to what I am saying.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I apologise. I should have been listening but I was distracted by fabulous information coming from the noble Lord, Lord Bach.

[Lord Maclennan of Rogart]

Perhaps I should make the point again, as briefly as I can. Does he not recognise that constitutional change and democratic legitimacy have been achieved in this country without public expressions of support at referenda? That history is far longer than is the history of referenda and there is very little precedent historically for referenda. No one considered that votes for women was not legitimate because it was decided by Parliament. Parliament does not cease to be sovereign because there is a referendum. That is true in respect of Europe and of devolution. It is also true in respect of the voting system. Surely the noble and learned Lord recognises that if there is a referendum result which does not give legitimacy it remains open to Parliament to react to that.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I have two points—I apologise to the noble Lord.

[Lord Maclennan of Rogart]

Parliament is still capable of introducing further legislation to take account of what has happened. That is not without precedent.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I have two points on that. First, the introduction of the referendum in our constitution effectively dates back to the European referendum. Once you have put the referendum into your constitution, it is very hard to go back on it—a point accepted by all political parties on this issue. Secondly, the position of saying, “Well, you can always change your mind if the level of support is not enough” would be legitimate if this were not a compulsory referendum, which requires the Minister to introduce the system of AV. If I may say so, with respect to the noble Lord, Lord Maclennan of Rogart, what this indicates is his instinctive acceptance that there are inevitably limits below which you cannot go.

Suppose the position was that only 25 per cent of the country voted in a referendum and that there was a majority of 12.6 per cent. Would anybody sensible say that that was sufficient justification? If this had been a sensible arrangement, Parliament would have kept control of that, but no: it was decided by this House and by the other House that it should be a compulsory referendum. In those circumstances, it is right for Parliament to address what a satisfactory turnout on it is. One of the things that we are doing in this House is exploring what the effect of the changes in the constitution has been, one major change being the introduction of referendums in order to make major changes to the constitution.

My view on this, a view which I express on behalf of my party, is that having rejected the idea of an indicative referendum it is for this House to address what, if any, threshold there should be. There should be a threshold because, in my view, low figures of the sort that I have indicated are not satisfactory. I am much encouraged in this by the support from the noble Lord, Lord Williamson, on the Cross Benches, and from the noble Lords, Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont. I did not realise that my noble friend Lord Bach had been chairman of that Labour Party constituency party but I now know why, for all those years, the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, was so sharp. My noble friend Lord Bach kept him so sharp in Blaby.

I ask the noble Lord, Lord McNally, to reflect on the need and reason for a referendum. Will he explain to the House what he would do if there was a 25 per cent turnout, which is perfectly conceivable, with a very small majority in favour of a change to the alternative vote system? Does he regard a 12.6 per cent vote in favour of that change as something that gives it legitimacy? Will he please not say that he is not going to go into hypotheticals? He has got to deal with the issue. One of the problems and frustrations that I think the whole House is feeling, with the possible exception of the noble Lords, Lord McNally and Lord Strathclyde, and the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, is the refusal on the part of the government Front Bench to engage with any degree of depth on the constitutional issues that the Bill raises.

Everybody agrees that the threshold issue is important. I will not support my noble friend Lady Hayter’s amendment because it is obvious that 25 per cent is too low a threshold, but it may well be that we shall support the thresholds in the other amendments. I invite the noble Lord, Lord McNally, to give us some idea of the Government’s thinking on this and how they say that the referendum could give legitimacy.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Lawson of Blaby]

If I may, while my noble friend is having a well earned rest, let me say that it was not a whipped vote on the Conservative side. It was a free vote and we were influenced in the way that the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, described. As an indication that it was a completely free vote, my noble friend Lady Thatcher, the Prime Minister at that time, did not take part in the Division. She did not vote—or did she? I do not recall.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

She was Leader of the Opposition.

[Lord Lawson of Blaby]

Sorry, she was leader of the party, but she did not take part. It was a completely free expression of opinion based on principle.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Strathclyde]

Up to a point, because I am going to argue in a moment that a threshold will encourage abstention and that therein lies a danger. Also, the Constitution Committee of this House recommended that the presumption should be against voter turnout thresholds in referendums.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

It says, though, that that may be different in relation to serious constitutional issues.

[Lord Strathclyde]

Well, I will have to check—not that I disbelieve the noble and learned Lord, but I will have to reread my well thumbed copy of that report.

We have not specified a voter turnout threshold, because we want to respect the will of the people who vote in the referendum, without conditions or qualifications. These amendments seek to specify a minimum turnout threshold so that, if less than 25, 40 or 50 per cent of those eligible to vote in the referendum cast a vote, the result will be voided.

Specifying a threshold for voter turnout can effectively make every abstention a no vote. People may abstain from voting in a referendum for any number of reasons, such as ignorance, apathy or ambivalence. It does not seem appropriate to regard such people as effectively having expressed a preference. In addition, a threshold may create an incentive to abstain from voting for those who favour a no vote. This cannot be right.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Lawson of Blaby]

If my noble friend will allow me, let me say that it is not as simple as that. It is not the case that an abstention will count as a no vote. It might well be the case that, if there is a considerable body of opposition to the change, it will win if its members vote, but if they stay at home and do not vote, that will allow the people who vote yes to win if they get over the threshold. So it is by no means as simple as my noble friend said; in fact, what he said is totally wrong. It might be that in certain circumstances it would help the no case, but in other circumstances it would help the yes case. That is the truth of the matter and people will therefore be inclined to vote if they understand what they are voting about.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

Just to follow up on that important point, what is the evidence that the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, is relying on?

[Lord Strathclyde]

It is obvious that if there is a threshold on turnout and you encourage people not to vote, the threshold is not reached.

[Lord Tyler]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours, seems to have shouted, got up and sat down. The issue here is simple arithmetic. Suppose that the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Grocott, went through and 45 per cent of the registered electorate voted yes while 4 per cent—I do not think that it will quite so dramatic, but who knows?—voted no. The noes would win because only 49 per cent of the electorate would have turned out. I am very sorry to have to disagree with my noble friend Lord Lawson, but my noble friend the Leader of the House is right: if you do not vote, it is a no vote.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I do not think that the noble Lord, Lord Tyler, has been listening to his noble friend Lord Lawson, who is saying that sometimes a threshold will encourage people to vote yes. The question that I am asking the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, is: what does the evidence point to?

[Lord Strathclyde]

My Lords, we have had only one national referendum. What evidence there is exists because it is either common sense or, as my noble friend Lord Tyler has worked out, a matter of simple mathematics. Interestingly, the noble and learned Lord, Lord Falconer, did not say that my noble friend Lord Tyler’s example was wrong. In fact, he was quite right; in his example, where 45 per cent vote yes and 4 per cent vote no, what happens is that the answer is no. Where is the justice in that? I am sorry that that is hypothetical.

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

The issue, as posed by the noble Lord, Lord Lawson—correctly, in my view—is whether or not the threshold encourages votes. There have been referendums not only in the United Kingdom; there have been referendums in a whole range of countries. I presume that the Government have done some research on this before responding on the issue of thresholds. What does that research show? The noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, is shaking his head, looking bewildered and saying, “No, I can’t tell you”. He is saying to me that he regards the idea that the Government would have done any research into this as preposterous.

[Lord Rennard]

Will the noble and learned Lord tell us what research his Government did in the previous Parliament on this very issue before introducing their Bill?

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I was not in the Government at the time. The noble Lord, Lord Tyler, is pointing at me in a rather aggressive way. I was not in the Government then, but the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, has access to a range of excellent civil servants who will tell him what the research is. I take it from the remarks that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, is making from a sedentary position that the Government have not troubled to do the research. He can correct me if I am wrong.

[Lord Goodhart]

My Lords, is it not an extraordinary situation that the effect of what the noble and learned Lord is saying is that, if 45 per cent of the voters voted yes and 4 per cent voted no, the noes would win, but if 45 per cent voted yes and 40 per cent voted no, the yeses would win?

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

That may be dealt with by the level of the turnout requirement.

[Lord Grocott]

The Liberal Democrats, suddenly energised, have identified a problem that is clearly troubling them. I suggest to them, as they anticipate the possibility that 45 per cent of a 50 per cent turnout would vote yes, that they need to introduce a threshold along the lines of the Cunningham amendment. On that basis, the question would have been passed. I look forward to their amendments to deal with the adjustments that they anticipate.