European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Hannay of Chiswick Excerpts

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, I support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong of Ilminster. I am all the more willing to do so because, in its four proposers, it has support from all the main parties in the House and from the Cross Benches. In a debate which has already shown a tendency to become partisan, it is important to move ahead on that kind of cross-party basis.

I support the amendment because if and when there is a referendum, there will be a huge amount of partisan speaking, writing and so on—and quite right, too—on both sides and there will be much that is confusing. However, surely we all ought to be able to agree that the question on the paper we vote on should be a genuinely level playing field. That is critical. Everything else about the campaign will not be a level playing field—and that is right because we live in a democracy—but the question should be.

We have before us two questions. The one in the Bill of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, has been considered by the body set up under Parliament’s authority to give advice on these matters and found to be defective. We have heard why it is defective. I will be interested to hear from the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, when he replies to this debate, why he thinks that, despite it being defective, it should be persevered with. I hope that he will not persevere with it; I hope he will accept the amendment.

The other question, which has been put forward by the Electoral Commission and which we are now considering, is, as has been said by everyone who has spoken today, a genuinely level playing field. It is important that if and when this referendum takes place it is perceived to be on a question that everyone can recognise as being a level playing field. How on earth are they going to think that if the Electoral Commission’s advice has been junked on a form of words whose origin appears to be obscure at the moment? Perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, can tell us whom Mr Wharton consulted before he put this on the Order Paper. Whose opinion did he take? He is, after all, a freshman Member and I doubt that he has done a great deal of drafting of referendum questions in his life. Whom did he consult?

I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, will surprise us all by accepting the amendment, because the issue of a level playing field in the question to be asked is absolutely fundamental.

[Lord Mackay of Clashfern (Con)]

My Lords, your Lordships will not be surprised that I am extremely concerned about this Bill, its implications and the time at which it has reached your Lordships’ House.

As I understand the Bill, it does nothing more than confer on the electorate of this country the right to an “in or out” referendum on our membership of the European Union—nothing more and nothing less. Further action is required from the Government and both Houses of Parliament before a referendum can take place under the Bill. It is clear from the present situation that no referendum is likely to take place before the next general election, the date of which we know—or at least at the moment we know—because of the excellent system of fixed Parliaments that has now been put in place.

It is clear that action by the incoming Government will certainly be required. I have reached the conclusion that any incoming Government holding a referendum during their term of office will wish to be in charge of all the details of that referendum and will put them in place through a public general statute. This will be put in place by the Government and run by the Government, with both Houses of Parliament—I hope more or less in their present forms—having a full opportunity to consider the details.

I am not a prophet—I do not know how many of us are—and I do not know exactly what the conditions will be in 2016-17. For all I know, the eurozone may be a distinct body from the European Union and a change of name may occur—as, for example, happened in connection with Maastricht when the name changed from the European Economic Community to the European Union. So the question will have to be decided ultimately in the light of the circumstances prevailing at the time of the referendum. That is absolutely essential.

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[Lord Mackay of Clashfern]

I do not say that the question does not matter—not at all. I perfectly understand that the question at the time the referendum is taken has to be fair, excellent and take full account of the circumstances. In response to the second question asked by the noble Baroness, there is quite a lot of work to be done, but I know of no way other than this Bill that gives an assurance to the British people, going into the next election, that they will have an “in or out” referendum.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Would I be wrong in saying that the whole trend of the noble and learned Lord’s reasoning, which I have been following with great care, is that the wording for the referendum should not be in the Bill at all but should be determined by statute in the new Parliament? If that is the case, would it not be better to at least follow the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, and have a decent wording in the Bill? There is of course no Motion on the Order Paper to dispense totally with the wording.

[Lord Mackay of Clashfern]

My Lords, in order to have an enforceable entitlement, it is essential, as I see it, to have a question that is related to the issue that you want to raise. Essentially, the Bill is legislating to say, “There shall be a referendum”. However, in order to be enforceable and to create a real entitlement, it has to state the time within which the referendum must happen, the question that must be raised, the mechanisms by which a system can be set and who the electorate are. That is all necessary in order to create an entitlement, but the entitlement does not mean that the referendum is going to take place only in accordance with the Bill. There is no question that this Bill binds any other Parliament any more than any other Bill with a sunset clause in it. This Bill does nothing except give that entitlement to the British people. If the Bill passes, I shall be interested in the number of manifestos that contain an undertaking to repeal it.

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[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, the Bill is about the British people having their say on the UK’s membership of the EU. That is what they want to decide upon and this is a simple binary choice: in or out. I will leave the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, to respond.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Before the noble Baroness sits down—

[Noble Lords]

Dobbs.

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[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, I support the amendment for slightly different reasons. If there is to be a meaningful decision, the choice must be clear. Unfortunately, I think it is extremely likely that if the 2017 date survives in this Bill the choice will be anything but clear because, for reasons that I shall advance later when we come to Amendment 10, it is extremely unlikely that the negotiations that Mr Cameron wishes to enter on, which he has not entered on so far, will be concluded by 2017. There are many reasons why fixing a date is the last way of getting effective negotiations.

What could be the result? We do not know. We will not know in 2017 what kind of choice we are facing. What sort of Europe will we be invited to stay in or to leave? What sort of eurozone will there be? Personally, I believe the eurozone will survive but this is by no means certain. However, suppose it does survive, how big will the eurozone be? How tightly knit will it be? What will be the relations between that eurozone and the single market? There may be several countries which do not wish to support the British expansion of the single market.

There may also be several countries in the eurozone which may not wish to come to an agreement that will be favourable to the City. Certain forces in Germany would like Frankfurt to be the financial centre of the eurozone while others in France will want Paris to be it. All sorts of problems will exist and we will need some sort of knowledge about the assessment. There is a great danger that the City would be sidelined and that is something to which the impact assessment would have to draw attention.

What would happen if, as seems possible but not certain, the banking union will then be complete? What will be the relations between the banking union and British banks? I certainly get the impression that there is a growing movement among bankers that they would rather like to join the banking union. They are not as afraid of the new regulations because our regulations are tighter than theirs and they fear being excluded from these vital decisions.

I think that we will face a very difficult decision if we have a referendum in 2017. Negotiations should take place first and then there should be a referendum, rather than facing a decision at a time when it is very unlikely that negotiations will be complete. The whole question of whether to stay in or leave will need a very careful impact assessment, certainly if the date of 2017 is preserved.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, I add my support for the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Roper. My name is added to the amendment and I want to explain briefly why I think that it makes very good sense, both for those who are extremely keen to see this legislation on the statute book and for those who are less keen to do so. I think that both should be united.

I doubt whether anyone in this House would assert that the information provided in the press and on television and so on about the European Union is very satisfactory. It is highly partisan in many cases and I fear that in the context of a referendum, if and when one takes place, that will continue to be the case. I may deplore that but, as an absolutely fundamental believer in a free press, I am certainly not going to go around saying that something should be done to stop that.

This amendment seeks to ensure that there is available to the voters objective information about the consequences of a no vote in a referendum. The consequences of a yes vote are less problematic because our membership would be entrenched further and we would, I hope, move on. I support the Prime Minister’s wish to see a reformed European Union and I hope that we would carry on in a reformed European Union. However, I suggest that the electorate—our fellow citizens—should be given a lot of basic facts about the consequences of a no vote.

The reports that we are suggesting should, in my view, under no circumstances be government policy; they should be produced by an objective body or bodies capable of assessing these things. No attempt is made in the amendments to suggest which they should be—that would be far too prescriptive—but a body such as the OBR could produce some of the information. I do not know; it would be for the Government to organise that in the context of a referendum but not to produce it themselves. There is a case for the kind of information on the four or five issues that we have suggested should be set out in this Bill, and there should be an obligation on the Government of the day, if and when a referendum is called, to organise that and to make sure that it is available to the electorate.

We have now crossed a watershed—perhaps not as determinant as the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, told us a few minutes ago it would be; nevertheless, it is a watershed—and I hope very much that the noble Lord will see that, as the Bill is being improved by this House, this is an amendment that he can accept. It does not cross any watersheds and it does not seek to do anything that those on his side of the House who have spoken very strongly in favour of a referendum should be in any dispute over. They surely want this objective information to be available to the electorate, and this is the best way to ensure that it is, although of course I am not suggesting that at this stage we should write out what that information would be.

[Lord Inglewood (Con)]

My Lords, I support the amendment of my noble friend Lord Roper, which is entirely sensible.

I have fought European elections as a candidate. One of the characteristics of that experience was that most of the electorate have a vague idea of the actual issues as opposed to the emotional issues. On something as important as the country’s future membership of the European Union, whether you are in favour of it or opposed to it, there is a great need to ensure that the decision, whatever it might be, is taken on the basis of an understanding and knowledge of the real issues.

I am quite sure that during the campaign exaggerated claims will be made by both the proponents of staying in and the proponents of leaving. It is important that there is a datum point of accurate information and an understanding of the implications, to enable the wider public to make the decision they will have to face.

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[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, perhaps I may briefly refer back to what I said at Second Reading. I said that the Bill was not about being pro-European or anti-European but about being pro-democracy. The noble Lord raised a number of issues about the people being informed and I agree with him. One of the positions that the Government have taken in relation to the balance of competences review has been on having an independent review of each individual area, where organisations and individuals are given the opportunity to give evidence, and for those reports to be presented in an independent way so that people can see where the European Union helps and where it hinders.

Such a referendum will generate a huge amount of interest and a great deal of campaigning. I think of my own experience of campaigning during the AV referendum. It becomes apparent as the referendum date comes nearer that the campaign steps up and a huge amount of discussion takes place. Members of this House and of the other House will have the opportunity to have their say. Business will have its say, NGOs will have their say and both sides of the case will be put. I am convinced that when this referendum is eventually held, the yes campaign and the no campaign will have long and detailed campaigns which will allow the British public to hear both the case for and the case against. This is an opportunity to allow that debate and those campaigns to start, and to allow the British people to have their say. There is overwhelming evidence that a referendum is what the people of this country—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, I thought that with the Minister’s reference to the balance of competences in her opening remarks, she was about to turn and recommend to her noble friend that they should accept the amendment. Is that the case? If not, why not? She is in government; if there were a referendum tomorrow, would the Government ensure that the sort of information called for in the amendment was provided? I hope that the answer is yes, and if it is then I hope that she will recommend this amendment to her noble friend.

[Baroness Warsi]

As the noble Lord is aware, the balance of competences review is to be done over four terms. The first set of papers has already been published and the second is being published as we speak. It is important that there is a timeframe within which this proper process is allowed to take place, and that is why the date as set in this Bill is not before the end of 2017. In those circumstances, I would say that the overwhelming feeling of the British people is to allow the referendum to happen.

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[Baroness Warsi]

It is good to hear that we have consistently heard from the Liberal Democrat Front Bench. There should therefore be no concerns in your Lordships’ House.

I will just end by making the point that, for some, there will never be the right time for a referendum; others, I know, hold sincere views as to why a certain time is not the right one. However, the British people are deeply sceptical about the status quo—they want to know that they will have a say and when.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I really would ask the Minister to perhaps have a word with her noble friend Lord Trefgarne, who is sitting there with a copy of the Companion on his lap. It would be really useful if he gave the noble Baroness the advice he gave another noble Lord earlier about speaking to the amendments.

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[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Baroness will understand that I could spend a great deal of time with a great deal of joy talking about the Liberal Democrat position on referendums and I would happily do that in public, but, if I may, I will pass over that and get on with the points that I want to make. There is always a reason for not doing something. We must be wary in this House of falling into the trap of implying, as several noble Lords have done, that there will never be a good time for such a vote. That is how many people will interpret much of what has been said here today: that too many people feel that there is a never a time to trust them.

This process of negotiation has effectively already begun, with changes to the budget, the common fisheries policy and other things, but I shall not go into the detail of that—now is not the time. Those negotiations will make more progress between now and the referendum, and I believe that we will make more progress after a referendum—that is what a relationship is all about. That brings me to the one hugely significant point that has been mentioned here time and again: that we are binding a future Parliament.

We are no more binding a future Parliament than we did when we passed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which said that the election of the next Parliament but one will be held in May 2020. Exactly the same point applies for the date that is in this Bill. Let me pursue that analogy a little further.

If the next Parliament were to decide that the circumstances of the date of that election, in May 2020, were unacceptable for whatever reason, it would change it. If that next Parliament were to decide that the circumstances of the date of this referendum were not acceptable—that it had become fatally flawed perhaps by change in circumstance—it would change that, too. It would need a darned good reason to change it, one that people would find acceptable—not another game that we politicians keep playing with them over this. The people would have to be taken into their confidence, persuaded of any need for a change. However, if we keep putting off the date of this referendum, we will find that that distrust, the poison that Sir John Major said had entered the system—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Does the noble Lord realise that the analogy that he draws with fixed-term Parliaments is not very apt? This Parliament has changed the periodicity of general elections quite often in the past. The party to which he belongs used to be in favour of annual Parliaments in the early 1700s, which I do not imagine it would come back to now. That has been done, and it has nothing whatever to do with what is being proposed here. What is being proposed here is a Bill whose sole purpose is to bind the hands of a future Parliament; it has no other purpose whatever. That is surely a germane point.

The other point to which the noble Lord could perhaps reply is his suggestion that the amendment would somehow mean endless prevarication. A party which has in its manifesto at the 2015 election the holding of a referendum will have the Salisbury convention on its side to pass legislation necessary to hold the referendum when it decides to do so. If it has any sense, it will not this time put the cart before the horse and decide the date of the referendum before it has had the negotiation.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, the noble Lord makes a good point: if it had any sense. I must remind the noble Lord that the Liberal Democrats had in their previous election manifesto a commitment to an “in or out” referendum, and where are they today? I mentioned at Second Reading that I do not want to make a party-political—

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[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I have put my name to both amendments in this group. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, for moving them briefly. I shall speak very briefly indeed, as he indicated that he will want to come back to certain aspects of these issues on Report.

It is vital that we nail the idea now that there must be clarity with regard to the alternatives to membership before the referendum takes place. The worst possible outcome of a referendum would be if it were voted on in a nihilistic atmosphere and with a nihilistic attitude and people were just saying no to something without having the faintest idea what was going to happen. If that were to be the case, and we were to pull out of the European Union on that basis, and if things then started to unravel, there would be immense bitterness, and I am not sure where that would take us politically. There needs to be a mechanism for spelling out what the alternatives are, and that mechanism has to go beyond the daily or weekly press. There needs to be some objective assessment of those alternatives, and people have to know what those assessments add up to. Therefore, in whatever way we try adding this to the Bill, I hope that that issue, that dimension, will be taken on board.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, there is another amendment on the Order Paper, Amendment 72—which we are not within miles of reaching and will obviously not reach in the next 50 minutes—which covers very much this ground. It is down in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, and would basically put a requirement on the Government to state before the referendum took place what alternative relationship Britain should seek to have with the European Union without Britain in it, if there were a no vote. I agree absolutely with what the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Anderson, said. It is essential that before the electorate cast their vote they should be told what the consequences in terms of Britain’s relationship with the truncated European Union would be in the event of a no vote. It would be too late to say what the Government are going to do after the vote; they must say so up front, before the vote.

However, that will come up in the later amendment as well. At the moment, the important thing is to note that this is a serious issue which will have to be addressed on Report, or in Committee when we get to Amendment 72. I hope that by the time we get there, the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, refreshed by a certain period of repose after his exertions today, will see the sense of this as one of the amendments which basically strengthens the Bill. It does not weaken it; it does not make a referendum less likely; it does not prejudge the outcome of the referendum or anything like that. It just means that if and when the referendum comes, there will be before the British people a clear idea of what the alternative is if, in their majority, they vote no.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

There is a considerable difference between this amendment and Amendment 72, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull. His amendment relates only to the intended relationship with what the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, called the truncated European Union, whereas this amendment relates to the whole panoply of possible alternatives. I gave some of those as examples: a relationship like that of Norway or Switzerland, the Commonwealth, the EEA or EFTA—one could go on. Both are important matters and should be discussed.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I do not want to disagree totally with the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, but, quite frankly, if you look at Amendment 72 of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, it is clear that, under it, the Government of the day would have to say, “If you vote no, we will try to get an agreement to join the EEA”, for example; or, “We would like to have a series of agreements like the Swiss”—there are 30 or 50 of them; or, “We would have none of the above and would rely simply on our World Trade Organisation membership”. All the things that the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, has discussed in his amendment are actually also covered in Amendment 72. I am saying merely that we will come to that later, on another day.

[Lord Liddle]

Briefly, the Opposition attach a lot of importance to this consideration of alternatives. We would hope that there would be some kind of agreed amendment between my noble friend Lord Anderson and the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Turnbull, which we might consider on Report.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I, too, will be brief. I entirely endorse the sentiment behind these amendments. Of course the alternatives must be spelled out. This historic decision which we wish to put to the people should never be taken blind. It is, however, a question of the best mechanism for those alternatives to be spelled out. We hope that they would be taken care of simply by what is called democracy: by a referendum campaign that would be long, arduous and very detailed. I think the people would demand to know from those who were suggesting that we should not stay within the European Union precisely what the alternative was. If that alternative were not offered, they would come to their own conclusions.

It is also, however, a matter that can be dealt with under the terms of the Bill after it has been passed. It does not need to be—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord is most kind to give way but, quite honestly, what he just said does not address the problem. The leaders of the no campaign will not be the Government on the day after they win a referendum: there will still be a British Government, which will not be them. We are now talking about what the Government tell the electorate they would do if the electorate voted no, not what the no campaign would do. If the no campaign is led by the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, heaven knows what he would do, but he will not be the Government. I am sorry; the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, does not address the point completely.

[Lord Dobbs]

As I mentioned during the last debate, this is not a black and white, a cut-off, a once-and-for-all decision. This will be a judgment made at the time, on the circumstances—and who can tell what those circumstances will be? People will inevitably have to take into account the fact that tomorrow is another day, and it might be a different day from yesterday, but nothing is going to happen overnight. These things will all have to be dealt with and talked through, both before the referendum campaign and after it. I am entirely in sympathy with the instincts behind this amendment, but it does not need to be in the Bill to get that certainty. The issue could be dealt with at a later stage—in the next Parliament, depending on the circumstances of the day. On those grounds, and for all the other grounds that I pointed out, I request that the noble Lord withdraws his amendment.

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[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I believe that the convention is that if it is not a consultative referendum, it is an obligatory referendum, as was the AV referendum. It is not necessary to put in the fact that it is consultative because it is consultative unless we say otherwise. That, I believe, is the convention.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Following up the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, I am sure that the noble Lord has taken advice and that what he said is correct. But how many of his fellow citizens are going to understand that? If you read the daily press, you would believe that they think that the Bill is going to provide for a mandatory referendum. They think that the outcome of the Bill will be binding on the Government and on Parliament. If that is not the case, the noble Lord should consider very carefully—in the interests, quite rightly, of this being clear and transparent, and so that people know what they are letting themselves in for beforehand and what they are getting afterwards—whether that needs to be made clear in the Bill in some way or another, whether it is by the tense of the verbs used or something like that. Frankly, I do not believe that we can just sail through this process on the advice that he has been given and that the rest of our countrymen will understand that.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords, with respect, the noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Dobbs, seem to have overlooked the fact that we are about to move on to Amendment 42A, which deals with precisely this point.

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[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I do not want to detain the House, but the position is quite clear in Scotland. If the Scots vote to leave the United Kingdom, that is that and the Government will get on with it, whoever the Government are, because that has been the clear understanding. We very much hope that that will not happen. It would be extraordinary to amend my noble friend’s Bill to say that it is only consultative, because those people who want to have their say will say, “Why is it one rule for the Scots and another for the rest of the United Kingdom?”. The noble Lord is on very dangerous ground.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, has got the balance a little wrong. The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said that this is a consultative referendum. The question is whether the Bill should say that, to avoid any misunderstanding. If the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, wishes to make it mandatory, my understanding, from what the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said, is that he must move an amendment. There is no amendment on the amendment paper to say that it is mandatory.

We should stick to where we are, which is the debate about whether the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, should be made to the Bill to remove beyond peradventure any misunderstanding.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord, but I am sure that what my noble friend meant when he said that it was consultative was that we were consulting the people to get their opinion. When I read the Bill, it seemed quite clear to me that if there was a referendum and people decided to leave or to remain in the European Union, that would be that. If the Bill is amended to say that the referendum is consultative, that is another matter. I am sure that my noble friend Lord Dobbs would also point to the fact that at the end of the day, this will require legislation in Parliament and Parliament will have the last say—of course it will—but I find it difficult to imagine that any Parliament faced with a referendum—