Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review, published on 11 June 2025, (a) what analysis informed the estimates for increases in police core spending power and (b) what increases in police council tax precepts were assumed, set out in (i) annual percentage increase terms, (ii) cash terms and (iii) real terms.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Police core spending power refers to the projected total police settlement funding for Counter Terrorism Police and Territorial Police. The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. The average real terms increase to police core spending power over the SR period was calculated based on the GDP deflator as of Spring Statement 2025.
Police core spending power includes projected spending from additional income, including estimated funding from the police council tax precept. However, this remains subject to final decision on precept levels and individual police and crime commissioner decisions. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 5.74 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, whether the 3.1% annual growth figure for local authority spending power assumes all councils increase core council tax by 3% each year and all councils apply the full 2% adult social care precept increase as well; what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2023-24 and 2028-29; and what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2025-26 and 2028-29.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Table 5.17 of the Spending Review 2025 document refers to an estimated average annual real-terms growth rate for Local Authority (LA) Core Spending Power of 3.1% per year from 2023-24 to 2028-29. The approach to council tax within these estimates is in line with standard practice for LA Core Spending Power figures published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026.
As also set out in Table 5.17, the estimated average annual real terms increase in grant funding between 2023-24 and 2028-29 for the Local Government Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) budget will be 5.2%. Between 2025-26 and 2028-29, it will be 1.1%.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to box 4.A of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, how much of the financial transactions set out in the document are additional to the quantum which was assumed at Autumn Budget 2024; and what estimate her Department has made of the potential impact of this additional activity on (a) public sector net cash requirement, (b) public sector net debt, (c) public sector net debt excluding Bank of England, (d) central government debt interest spending and (e) overall gilt issuance for each financial year up to and including 2029-30, compared to the forecasts published at Spring Statement 2025.
Answered by Emma Reynolds - Economic Secretary (HM Treasury)
At the Budget last Autumn, the government set out a clear fiscal strategy to stabilise the public finances and underpin growth. This involved introducing new fiscal rules which provide stability, put the public finances on a sustainable path and ensure our public services are sustainably funded.
The fiscal rules set in the Autumn have supported the step change needed in investment, kick starting a decade of national renewal. For the first time, the fiscal rules recognise where financial assets generate future returns. At SR25, the government allocated an additional £9.6 billion in financial transactions to good value-for-money investment opportunities identified through the Spending Review process, subject to the robust guardrails set out in the financial transaction control framework.
The Treasury does not publish forecasts of the economy or public finances; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official forecaster and provides independent analysis of the UK’s public finances. In its March forecast, the OBR confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules, thanks to decisive action taken by the government to put the public finances on a sustainable trajectory and grow the economy.
The OBR will publish an updated forecast later this year in the usual way.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review document published on 11 June 2025, what the annual real terms increases in central government funding for policing will be in each financial year up to and including 2028-29; and what the average real terms annual increase will be across the spending review period.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. This reflects estimated funding through a mix of central government funding and precept income via precept funding. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 2.20 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, if she will provide a breakdown of the £1 billion estimated savings from spending on the asylum system by (a) area of spend, (b) capital vs resource spending and (c) each financial year up to and including 2028-29.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
This government inherited an unaffordable and unsustainable asylum pressure, which is why this government has taken action to reduce asylum costs. The Home Secretary’s robust reforms, including investment in the new Border Security Command, are aimed at reducing small boat arrivals, reducing the asylum and appeals backlog and returning those without the right to be here. This will address the underlying causes of high asylum costs by enabling asylum hotel exits and see asylum support costs fall by at least £1 billion a year by 2028-29 compared to 2024-25 spending.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make a comparative assessment of the outturn and forecast data for public sector net (a) borrowing, (b) debt, excluding Bank of England debt, and (c) financial liabilities for each financial year from 2024-25 until 2029-30 (i) before and (ii) after 29 July 2024.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The information requested is publicly available. Forecast data is published on the OBR’s website https://obr.uk/publications/. Outturn public finances data is published on the ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance.
At Autumn Budget 2024, the government put the public finances on a sustainable path by strengthening the fiscal framework, including announcing new fiscal rules, and taking difficult decisions on tax, welfare and spending.
In March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, for what reason her Department did not make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposed Double Contribution Convention with India on the public purse before agreeing to it.
Answered by James Murray - Exchequer Secretary (HM Treasury)
The OBR will certify the impact of the trade deal including the Double Contributions Convention in the usual way at a fiscal event, once the deal is finalised and ratified. The agreement to negotiate a Double Contributions Convention was made in the context of the wider deal, which will bring billions into the economy.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make it her Department’s policy to announce changes to winter fuel payments at fiscal events.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
This Government remains absolutely committed to supporting pensioners and giving them the dignity and security they deserve in retirement.
The Government took the right action last July to support the public finances. Tough but fair decisions were taken, including making sure Winter Fuel Payments would be targeted at those with the highest need. That principle still stands.
As the economy improves, the Government wants to make sure people feel those improvements. The Government wants to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for Winter Fuel Payments.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, for what reason the planned rollout of the abolition of the Work Capability Assessment has been delayed from 2026, and what the full new planned timetable is for rollout of this reform to (a) new and (b) current claims.
Answered by Stephen Timms - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)
Our Green Paper outlines why we think removing the WCA and moving to using the PIP assessment as the single assessment for additional financial support, is the correct decision for the reformed disability benefits system. Scrapping the Work Capability Assessment will take time, and we need to act now to reset the system. We are making changes to PIP eligibility to ensure it focuses more on those with higher needs, making support more targeted to protect this safety net for future generations. We are also lowering the rate of UC health for new claims from April 2026 to £50 and then freezing the rate until 2029/30 – alongside increasing the standard allowance – to reduce the incentive to define yourself as unfit to work, while still providing a higher rate of benefit for disabled people and those with health conditions with extra costs.
Following the Green Paper consultation, we will bring forwards a White Paper in Autumn 2025 to set out our full proposals. This will be followed by further primary legislation, which we expect to take forward in the second session, subject to parliamentary approval. Therefore, the indicative date this will take place will be in 2028/29.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.
Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.