Aviation: Fuels
(asked on 12th February 2026) - View Source
Question to the Ministry of Defence:
To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, what estimate the RAF has made of the cost of the incremental move to being 22% sustainable aviation fuel by 2040 in each year individual year for which figures are available.
The RAF is able to provide an estimated cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Power to Liquid (PtL) fuel in accordance with the SAF mandate for each year up to 2040; however, these figures are subject to fluctuation. Costs are currently based on the trading of SAF certificates which are, at market average, £3.30 per litre for conventional SAF and estimated at approximately £4.00 per litre for PtL when the PtL Obligation is introduced in 2028.
The below figures are based on an annual fuel consumption of 250 million litres per annum. This does not include operational flying activity which is dependent on operational tempo and external factors that are difficult to accurately predict.
The estimated market cost sits below the buyout ceiling, which is the per-litre penalty cost at which non-compliance with the mandate is charged. Therefore, column F is indicative of the overall cost of fuel purchase under the SAF mandate inclusive of penalty costs were the RAF unable to meet the mandate targets.
Department for Transport analysis predicts that by 2040, the domestic SAF position will have matured and there is potential for SAF to be purchased at £1.20 per litre. Should this be the case, the figures in the above table would be greatly reduced.
A | B | C | D | E | F |
Year | Total Oblig. (%) | PtL Sub-target (%) | Main SAF Target (%) | Est. Market Cost (£) | Buy-out Ceiling (£) |
2025 | 2.00% | - | 2.00% | £16,500,000 | £23,500,000 |
2026 | 3.60% | - | 3.60% | £29,700,000 | £42,300,000 |
2027 | 5.20% | - | 5.20% | £42,900,000 | £61,100,000 |
2028 | 6.80% | 0.20% | 6.60% | £56,450,000 | £80,050,000 |
2029 | 8.40% | 0.20% | 8.20% | £69,650,000 | £98,850,000 |
2030 | 10.00% | 0.50% | 9.50% | £83,375,000 | £117,625,000 |
2031 | 10.75% | 0.50% | 10.25% | £89,562,500 | £126,687,500 |
2032 | 11.75% | 0.75% | 11.00% | £98,250,000 | £138,750,000 |
2033 | 12.75% | 1.00% | 11.75% | £106,937,500 | £150,812,500 |
2034 | 13.75% | 1.25% | 12.50% | £115,625,000 | £162,875,000 |
2035 | 15.00% | 1.50% | 13.50% | £126,375,000 | £177,375,000 |
2036 | 16.40% | 1.90% | 14.50% | £138,625,000 | £194,412,500 |
2037 | 17.80% | 2.30% | 15.50% | £150,875,000 | £210,875,000 |
2038 | 19.20% | 2.70% | 16.50% | £163,125,000 | £227,625,000 |
2039 | 20.60% | 3.10% | 17.50% | £175,375,000 | £244,375,000 |
2040 | 22.00% | 3.50% | 18.50% | £187,625,000 | £261,125,000 |