Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what assessment he has made of the potential impact of import-related costs on food prices.

Defra modelling shows consumer food prices are driven by domestic farmgate prices, agricultural and food import prices, exchange rates and manufacturing costs.

ONS input producer price inflation rates for domestic and imported food inputs were 2.1% and 1.2% respectively in January 2026. This compares with 1.7% and -3.1% in January 2025.

Import prices are driven by movements in global commodity markets. For example, cocoa prices have risen strongly since 2024 following poor weather conditions in West Africa and contributed to UK chocolate prices rising 14.7% higher in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD)’s latest forecast, published November 2025, suggests that they expect food price inflation to peak at 4.3% at the start of 2026 and average 3.8% over 2026.