Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, how many and what proportion of individuals on probation went on to commit a serious further offence in each year since 2010; and in how many and what proportion of those cases was there a subsequent finding that the risk of their causing serious harm had been underestimated.

In respect of how many individuals on probation went on the commit a serious further offence in each year since 2010, I refer the honourable Member for Croydon North to the answer I gave on 20 January 2023, to Question UIN 125451: https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-01-17/125451.

We estimate that a consistent range of less than 0.5% of offenders on probation in any one year go on to commit serious further offence. To provide exact proportions (as opposed to an interval estimate of the proportion) could be obtained only at disproportionate cost.

Similarly, identifying how many offenders and what proportion of those cases was there a subsequent finding that the risk of their causing serious harm had been underestimated could only be obtained at disproportionate cost.