Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what modelling his Department has undertaken on the optimal strategy for covid-19 vaccine roll-out; and when that modelling is planned to be published.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) takes account of a range of scientific information including modelling work and this is cited in their minutes and published statements which are available at the following link:

https://app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmtjusir2tc

The modelling work by Warwick University which informed the JCVI’s phase one advice is available at the following link:

http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/149402/1/WRAP-Modelling-optimal-vaccination-strategy-SARS-CoV-2-2021.pdf

The modelling work which informed their advice for extending the interval between the first and second dose is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement

The modelling work which informed the JCVI’s phase two interim advice is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/university-of-warwick-covid-19-vaccine-impact-forecast-13-january-2021