Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what modelling has been undertaken on the optimal strategy for the national covid-19 vaccination programme; and if he will publish that modelling.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation’s (JCVI) advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination is based on a range of evidence including a review of United Kingdom epidemiological data on the impact of the pandemic so far and data on demographic and clinical risk factors for mortality and hospitalisation from COVID-19. The JCVI takes account of a range of scientific information including modelling work and this is cited in the minutes and published statements from the Committee. These are available at the following link:
https://app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmtjusir2tc
The modelling work by Warwick University which informed phase one advice is available at the following link:
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/149402/1/WRAP-Modelling-optimal-vaccination-strategy-SARS-CoV-2-2021.pdf
The modelling work which informed the advice for extending the interval between the first and second dose is available at the following link:
The modelling work that informed the JCVI’s phase two interim advice is available at the following link: