Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what modelling his Department has conducted to estimate that the steps outlined in the Minister for Primary Care and Public Health's Written Statement of 11 April 2023 on Achieving Smokefree 2030: cutting smoking and stopping kids vaping, UIN HCWS710, will help reduce smoking rates to 5% or less in England by 2030.

Annex 1 of ‘Stopping the start: our new plan to create a smokefree generation’ sets out the modelling used to forecast changes in smoking prevalence over time based on legislating for a smokefree generation. This modelling is preliminary and will continue to be further refined ahead of publication of a full impact assessment.

Annex 1 is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stopping-the-start-our-new-plan-to-create-a-smokefree-generation/annex-1-modelling-assumptions