Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what comparative assessment his Department has made of levels of excess deaths in (a) 2023 and (b) the 2015-2019 average. what assessment he has made of the potential links between excess deaths and age; and what the most common causes of excess deaths are in people under 50.

There are several organisations producing estimates of excess deaths using different methods. Excess deaths are the difference between registered deaths and the number expected each week.

The Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) reports monthly on Excess Mortality in England and English regions, and more information is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-and-english-regions

OHID’s expected deaths are based on the trend in mortality rates in England for the five years 2015 to 2019. Estimates of excess deaths are therefore not available for the pre-pandemic period using the same methodology. OHID estimates take change in population size and ageing into account.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also publishes weekly estimates of excess deaths, which are available at the following link:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

ONS expected deaths are based on a simple five-year average of deaths registered each week in previous years. For deaths in 2023, the five-year average is based on deaths in 2017 to 2019 and 2021 to 2022.

In the weeks ending 6 January 2023 to 29 September 2023, OHID estimates that there have been 23,001 excess deaths in England, 6% more deaths than expected. Over this period, there were only three weeks that did not have any excess deaths, namely the weeks ending 10 March 2023, 14 April 2023, and 7 July 2023.

Additionally, over the same period, ONS estimates that there have been 24,292 excess deaths in England which, like OHID’s estimate, is 6% higher than expected. However, ONS figures show that seven weeks over the period did not have excess deaths, these being the weeks ending 10 and 17 February 2023, 14 April 2023, 21 and 28 July 2023, 29 September 2023, and 6 October 2023.

Numbers of excess deaths generally increase with age and OHID estimates that excess deaths in England over this same period above were highest in those aged 85 and over, specifically 6,955 deaths. However, the relative excess was highest in the 50 to 64 age group where excess deaths were 14% higher than expected, specifically 5,278 deaths.

Of the causes of death which OHID routinely report on, deaths involving cardiovascular diseases including heart disease and stroke, and acute respiratory diseases including flu and pneumonia had the highest numbers of excess deaths for those aged under 50 in England in January to June 2023. Data for later months are not available.