Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment he has made of the potential effect of an increase in non-tariff barriers on consumer prices in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

On 28 November 2018, the government published a robust assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the UK economy in the long-run, detailing the effects on GDP, GDP per capita, exports and imports across four scenarios. This analysis is available on gov.uk.

While the analysis does not seek to assess the effect of non-tariff barriers on consumer prices specifically, the lower GDP in the modelled no deal scenario compared to today's arrangements reflects the combined impact of trade frictions, including non-tariff barriers, on households' purchasing power as well as on firms' gross output and their productivity. The White Paper scenario would deliver significantly higher economic output compared to no deal.