Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.

Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.