Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of her Department's changes to employers' National Insurance Contributions on trends in the level of employment in the hospitality sector.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer National Insurance contributions (NICs). The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.

The Office for Budget Responsibility also published the Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances.

With all policies considered, the OBR's March 2025 EFO forecasts the employment level to increase from 33.6 million in 2024 to 34.8 million in 2029.

The Government decided to protect the smallest businesses from the changes to employer NICs by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that this year, 865,000 employers will pay no NICs at all, and more than half of all employers will either gain or will see no change.