Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, pursuant to the Answer of 7 July 2025 to Question 63294 on Personal Independence Payment and Universal Credit, what (a) driving factors and (b) assumptions she uses to model projections for the number of claims for (i) PIP and (ii) health components of Universal Credit.

DWP produces forecasts of benefit payments based on DWP assumptions agreed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), alongside economic determinants, judgments and assumptions provided by the OBR.

The number of PIP claimants is forecast by considering new claims for the benefit, the rate of successful awards, and the likelihood that claimants leave the benefit, split by age (working age or pension age) and claim type (new claim or reassessment from Disability Living Allowance).

The new claims assumption is informed by recent trends with adjustments made for seasonality and changes in external drivers such as trends in numbers of people with health conditions, the cost of living, and responses to public awareness. Similarly, award rates and exit rates are also based on recent trends.

The Universal Credit caseload forecast combines evidence from the recent past with assumptions and OBR judgements on future trends. The driving factors within the UC Health forecast include observed benefit onflows and changes in circumstances that affect UC eligibility for benefits units, covering not only health but also family make-up, housing status, and earnings, derived from DWP admin data. The key assumptions affecting the UC Health Forecast include the plan to move all legacy claimants to UC by the end of March 2026 and an OBR judgement that onflows will fall from their recent high as real household disposable incomes recover, as described in the November 2023 EFO (see 4.57 CP 944 – Office for Budget Responsibility – Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2023). The drivers and assumptions of the UC Health forecasts were discussed in the OBR’s Welfare Trends Report of October 2024. Additionally, the UC forecast reflects further OBR forecasts and judgements on economic and demographic change (see answer to PQ 63294).