Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, pursuant to the Answer of 28 October 2025 to Question 83389 on Transport: Exhaust Emissions, what estimate she has made of (a) total transport-sector emissions between 2025 and 2050 and (b) emissions from (i) cars and vans, (ii) shipping, (iii) aviation, and (iv) rail, (c) total emissions savings from UK Government interventions in those sectors over that period (A) in megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, (B) as a percentage of total projected emissions and (d) the total estimated cost of those interventions to (1) the public purse and (2) consumers.

The Government’s annual publication titled ‘Energy and Emissions Projections’ (EEP) provides estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions out to 2050 after accounting for policies that have been implemented and planned policies where the level of funding has been agreed, and the policy design is near final. For transport, this includes GHG emissions estimates for domestic transport and international aviation and shipping. The latest publication can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-and-emissions-projections-2023-to-2050.

The Government’s Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan (CBGDP) was published on 29 October 2025. EEP estimates provided the basis for the emissions baseline in the CBGDP, but some modelling adjustments were made to better align the EEP with sectoral modelling. This approach is explained in the CBGDP Technical Annex, at paragraphs 20 to 21: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6901dfae71b575684c3cf78a/carbon-budget-and-growth-delivery-plan-technical-annex.pdf

The CBGDP published estimates of the impact of transport policies and proposals on GHG emissions between now and the end of the Carbon Budget 6 period in 2037. This includes transport policies captured in the EEP, and modelled proposals and policies. Estimates of transport policies’ impact on GHG emissions are included in Table 3 and Table 4 of the CBGDP: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6901d0c2a6048928d3fc2b55/carbon-budget-and-growth-delivery-plan-report.pdf