Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, if he will publish the modelling, estimates or projections for the numbers of offenders that will be immediately eligible for release post the introduction of the changes to the automatic release points as part of the Sentencing Bill 2025; and to include a breakdown of any such modelling, estimates or projections by offence and release numbers by individual days.

As set out in the Sentencing Bill Impact Assessment, the Bill will ensure that the country has sufficient prison places by reducing demand by 7,500 places in 2028. The Bill will help ensure that the Criminal Justice System can continue to function with arrests and court trials continuing to go ahead, so avoiding a breakdown of law and order. The public will continue to be protected from the most serious offenders by ensuring prison places are available.

We are working across agencies to prepare and plan for implementation of the changes, and this Government is committed to ensuring that measures impacting sentencing and release are introduced safely, transparently and in a way that protects the public.

Release volumes for current prisoners will depend on whether they are subject to any ongoing criminal investigations or charges and therefore any additional sentences handed down by the Courts, and whether they are given added days for bad behaviour.

Around 17,000 prisoners are entirely excluded from the release point changes being brought forward in the Sentencing Bill.

The Ministry of Justice routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.