Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the cumulative nominal and real-terms state pension expenditure savings in (1) 2025–26, and (2) 2044–45, under the uprating scenario of (a) consumer price index (CPI) only, (b) earnings only, (c) CPI or earnings ('double lock'), and (d) the existing 'triple lock'.

An estimate of cumulative nominal and real-terms state pension expenditure savings in 1) 2025-26 and 2) 2044-45, under the uprating scenarios of a) consumer price index, b) earnings only, c) CPI or earnings and d) Triple Lock are not readily available and to provide it would incur disproportionate cost.

The Office for Budget Responsibility assume long-term annual growth rates for the following economic determinants: Consumer Price Index (2.0%), Average Earnings (3.8%) and ‘Triple Lock’ (4.4%).

Source: OBR September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability – charts and tables: supplementary tables, Table 1.1

The Government have made a commitment to the Triple Lock for the entirety of this Parliament which will mean annual spending on people’s State Pensions is forecast to rise by around £31 billion between 2024-25 and 2029-30.