Thomas Cook

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Wednesday 25th September 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

I believe that that directive has been brought across and is in our law.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, obviously our first concern is both for the staff of Thomas Cook and for the holidaymakers who found themselves in this impossible situation. Across the globe, however, there are hoteliers and others who have provided services for which they have not been paid. If the UK has a reputation for allowing this situation, I suspect that other travel firms will find in the future that they are asked for guarantees and other kinds of prepayments that will make holidays far more expensive for everybody else in this country. Does she have an idea of how the people who are owed money for services that they have provided under Thomas Cook arrangements are going to be repaid in these circumstances?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

As the noble Baroness will know, these are, in pretty much all instances, private companies making private arrangements. The travel market is global, so if one is in a hotel in Italy, there will be people there from travel companies from all over the world. It is the case, therefore, that those private arrangements will continue, and as with all private arrangements between two private organisations, an assessment should be made on the long-term financial viability of the person to whom one is providing credit.

High Speed Rail (West Midlands–Crewe) Bill

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords
Monday 9th September 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I am a strong supporter of HS2. I was before I had the privilege of becoming a Minister in the last 18 months of the coalition Government, when I became the Minister responsible for phase 2. Hours and days were spent on the ground seeing not only extraordinary challenges but huge opportunities to regenerate economies that had fallen behind and essentially to change the future direction for many people, particularly in the north. However, I do not want to use this speech to talk in a general way about HS2; I want to focus on a number of issues that genuinely concern me.

Others have said this, but I shall pick it up in a slightly different way. This is clearly an opportunity for the Department for Transport, as well as other parts of government, to look again at how large, complex projects are costed. Recognising that the estimates cost of phase 1 had risen from £27 billion to somewhere between £36 billion and £38 billion did not happen overnight. Those who would have seen and recognised that they needed to make those changes never did so in the public arena—there was no transparency.

Frankly, I find this completely ridiculous. We should never look at a cost estimate in the early stages of a large and complex project and treat it as anything more than tentative. There should be an ongoing process of constantly updating. Having to say that the number is higher should not be treated as betrayal or failure; it is merely recognising and understanding the detail. I say to many here that this really needs a change in attitude at the Treasury and, frankly, much braver politicians in order to recognise that this will frequently be the pattern in projects of this kind.

I want to put on the record my gratitude to the whistleblowers who alerted many on the outside to the cost issues with HS2. I ask the Minister: will HS2 and the Government step in to amend some of the retaliation and harm that those whistleblowers have suffered? It was terrible and inappropriate, and it really needs to be remedied. We need that kind of honesty and integrity in this project.

I also want to look at cost-benefit analysis. My noble friend Lord Bradshaw referred to it in the more technical terms of the WebTAG. Allan Cook highlighted in his stocktaking report the inadequacies of the Government’s cost-benefit tools in providing any kind of sensible answer for projects on the scale of HS2, particularly with its broad impact on regeneration.

I feel this harshly. I had such fights inside the department during my period as a Minister. I have a banking background: I understand net present values and how you look at calculating returns. It was absolutely clear that the methodology was very inappropriate. The Government’s method completely fails to recognise more than very limited aspects of regeneration and economic benefit. This leads to poor decision-making on projects because, in particular, it does not recognise the uplift in land values. That would give us a much better mechanism for making decisions about these projects, as well as providing us with mechanisms to find ways to fund parts of these projects. Where there is land value uplift, we ought to be taking some of that in to pay for the project in the first place.

The current methodology is particularly hopeless for a phased project. Under its methodology, it captures all the costs of all the various phases and only includes a small part of the revenues and benefits that come from the later phases, because of the time guillotine inherent in the process. That has to be completely changed. I really think that it will take some outside pressure to get that kind of sense. It is perfectly within the department’s scope to look at all of that again.

I have a question for the Minister. I am really concerned about what on earth we will do with passengers now that the opening date of phase 1 is estimated not to be 2026 but somewhere between 2028 and 2031. I went into a lot of those passenger forecast numbers closely when I was in the Government. Even then, I was terrified that we could not cope with the forecast growth in passengers on routes between London and the Midlands with a 2026 opening. I do not know how we will cope without HS2 open until 2028 or even 2031.

I know that the industry is trying to use things such as changes in the way it manages fares to redistribute passengers through the day. Frankly, it will only make changes at the edges. In a couple of speeches, I joked about strapping passengers to the roofs of trains. It is no longer looking like a joke. We really are looking at tremendous overcrowding and over-demand. I have no idea what is being put in place now that we know that the opening of HS2 phase 1 will be delayed. This really ought to be a very urgent project.

As I said, I wanted to bring up one or two issues. Perhaps the Minister could help me with one last issue. HS2 is a project that demands sophisticated rail. I know that the whole industry has been reliant on British steel as the source of that rail. We know that the future of British Steel is in question. I hope she can explain to the House how we should respond or how she would see this set of issues. If somebody came to me and asked what major risks could further delay the project and put up costs in a way that we had not anticipated, that one would be somewhere near the top of my list.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

I suspect that I may already have that list, but I would be delighted to receive it again.

My noble friend Lord Framlingham made what I think noble Lords will agree was an expected contribution, mentioning costs and value for money; indeed, that is what the Oakervee review will consider. He spoke about whistleblowers, as of course did the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. We are clear that any whistleblowers are covered in the UK by the whistleblowing legislation, and absolutely nothing should stop them coming forward. The Oakervee review will of course look at all available evidence when assessing the scheme.

[Baroness Kramer]

Would the Minister be willing to meet on one occasion to take up that issue of whistleblowers?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

I would be delighted to meet the noble Baroness when diaries allow.

My noble friend Lord Framlingham mentioned fraud. I would like to be clear that neither the Serious Fraud Office nor the police has contacted HS2 regarding any investigation, nor made any request for information in that regard.

The noble Lord, Lord Greaves, asked whether HS2 was competent. The Oakervee review will of course look at how we have arrived at the place we have, and at whether HS2 as it stands is able to deliver the project. We would not want to prejudge that outcome, but we have been working closely with the new chairman to ensure that HS2 has the right skills at this important stage to take the project forward.

The noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, mentioned salaries, expressing surprise at the number of people who are paid quite high salaries within HS2. I do not know that I agree with her on this one. These are very technical positions, which need quite a lot of skill and experience, and I have not yet been able to see any benchmarks which would mean that they are not reasonable salaries to pay to these highly skilled technicians and engineers.

The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, raised the important issue of connectivity. I said in my opening remarks that HS2 will be able to connect the major cities of the UK, but also described how the hub-and-spoke system then goes out to more than 100 cities and towns, which will be able to benefit. It is probably slightly early days now to think about those towns, because we need to get closer to the date of completion and services. However, I agree with him that whoever is in government at that time—I very much hope that it will be the Conservatives—will work with local authorities to make sure that we have an integrated transport system so that the buses connect with the trains, and all those things happen that we all would like to see.

The issue of Old Oak Common was raised a couple of times. We published a response to the Economic Affairs Committee report in July 2019, which mentioned stopping at Old Oak Common. There are few benefits, because stopping there means that you cannot transfer on to other transport systems, but the Oakervee review will of course look at that issue.

Heathrow Airport

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Thursday 7th June 2018 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, the statement of principles was a snapshot in time. It was published publicly in October 2016 and is not legally binding. As I said, the document will expire if the scheme proceeds and the NPS is designated. The Government will of course define their relationship with Heathrow in a new agreement if the scheme proceeds. On surface access, Heathrow Airport Ltd has pledged to meet the costs of any surface access proposals that are essential to deliver airport expansion. Many of the schemes which the noble Lord mentioned—HS2, Crossrail and the extension to the Piccadilly line—are already committed. For any other scheme currently under consideration, such as western and southern rail access, there will be an appropriate contribution from the developer.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, when the PPP companies Metronet and Tube Lines collapsed, the Government found themselves having to step up with millions to make up the damage to London Transport because it was essential. It will be exactly the same with Heathrow if there is any failure in the successful completion of this project, and the Government should be honest about that. From doing years of infrastructure funding, I can say that there is no way that any responsible shareholder or lender would put money into a project with so many potential liabilities—for transport, environment, community impact and damage to other airports—without some form of implied government backstop. Will the Government please come clean and provide their estimate of the liabilities that the taxpayer will be exposed to before the vote in the Commons?

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, there is of course a risk that in certain circumstances Heathrow Airport Ltd could pause or cease the development of the scheme. However, the regulator will hold Heathrow to account on the delivery of the scheme through its regulatory licence. I say again that the Government are clear that airport expansion should be financed solely by the private sector and that Heathrow Airport Ltd has no claim to damages or liabilities.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, I am happy to confirm to my noble friend that we absolutely continue to support regional airports. With an expanded Heathrow, we will still see regional airports growing and benefiting from long-haul flights, such as the recent introduction of the flight from Manchester to China, which has been so successful.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, can I suggest that the Minister may have missed the point? In order to pay back its financing and its shareholders, Heathrow will need to fill those runways as rapidly as possible. The obvious way to do that—I am sure this is deeply embedded in Heathrow’s plans—is to suck in traffic from other airports across the UK, not just in London and the south-east but elsewhere. Will she confirm that that is indeed part of the business plan and give assurances otherwise to the various regional airports, because it will require government action to make sure that that does not happen?

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, there is a huge amount of pent-up demand at Heathrow and I imagine that those flights will be some of the first coming in when the new runway is built, which Heathrow expects to be in around 2026. I have spent much time in many regional airports and they have all been welcoming of the expansion of Heathrow, particularly on the domestic connectivity point where we expect to see up to 15% of slots reserved for domestic flights.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Sugg]

I could not agree more with the noble Lord. We are in desperate need of expanded capacity in this country if we are to continue to succeed as a nation. I would very much like it if we could proceed.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, could I just push the Minister on the funding of surface transport?

[Noble Lords]

No!

[Baroness Kramer]

There are still two minutes to go— unless someone else would like to ask a question. As the Minister will know, the Heathrow Southern Railway scheme requires the diversion of trains, typically going to Windsor, to the airport. The plans actually consume capacity that has been designed to meet not only the needs of the current Heathrow Airport but the growing demands of the local community. While the local community is going to be displaced, who is going to provide that replacement transport? There are both capacity issues and huge cost issues associated with that, but the airport could very easily claim that they are not directly related to bringing passengers to the airport.

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, Heathrow Airport Ltd has pledged to meet the costs of any surface access proposals that are essential to deliver airport expansion. Any work that will benefit the wider transport system, not just the airport, may require some taxpayer contribution, but proposals will need to represent value for money. As those proposals develop, those agreements will be made.

Airports National Policy Statement

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Wednesday 6th June 2018 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Sugg]

I thank the noble Lord for his supportive comments. This expansion will absolutely deliver jobs for the local area: I think that the latest figure is 114,000 and 5,000 apprenticeships, which will obviously be welcome for young people. We have not underestimated the potential impact of this decision on local communities, or the importance of listening to them and doing it in the right way. I personally met some of the local groups which have been campaigning hard on this issue and saw at first-hand their strength of feeling. The NPS commits up to £2.6 billion towards compensation, noise insulation and improvements to public communities but, as the noble Lord said, expansion has support from local communities as well as opposition.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I declare an interest, in that I live under the flight path and belong to many of the community organisations that the Minister will have met. I am appalled by this proposal, as will be the majority of the community where I live and the surrounding communities. Will the Minister confirm that it is clear in the report that daytime respite periods will be shorter under this plan? It says in parenthesis that they will be cut. Perhaps she will confirm that. That matters because there may be money for insulation, but that is not very useful for children who want to play outside or for people who want to walk outside or sit in a garden. Perhaps she will tell us the number of hours of peace that we are about to lose every day.

To answer the question of the noble Lord, Lord Brabazon, airlines will be permitted to run a full service from 5.30 in the morning under the new plan. The night-time ban is six and a half hours: 11 pm to 5.30 in the morning. Currently, they cannot run a full service until 6 am. That is done because Asian Governments are concerned that their residents are being disturbed by departures, so instead our local residents are to be disturbed by arrivals.

Will the Minister confirm what is clear to me from the report: that the required noise level that the airport has to achieve is that in existence in 2013, giving up five years of improvement? All the surface transport mitigations listed are those under way or in place to deal with current congestion, current overcrowding, the air quality problems of the current airport, and the forecast growth in demand in the local community. There is no additionality to deal with 41 million people, a doubling of freight and no indication of who will pay.

On air quality, there are just vague aspirations without any guarantees, clarity or targets. Will the Minister confirm that?

[Baroness Sugg]

My Lords, on the respite periods, the final flight paths obviously have not been confirmed yet, and I understand why there is frustration about that. The proposals to change airspace design have to follow the new airspace change process, which will be done in the coming years, in close consultation with the community.

On the 6.5 hour ban, it has not been decided between periods of 11 pm and 5.30 am exactly where that will go. As I say, that will also be done in consultation with local communities. We think that there could be more respite than that, and predictable respite too. Obviously, with a third runway, there will be more aircraft movements in the sky, so I acknowledge that there will be more noise. We have set out a comprehensive package of compensation, which includes noise insulation and improvements to public amenities.

On the surface access point, there is lots of investment to come on that. I would mention Crossrail, HS2 and Southern Rail and western rail access. There are clear commitments to 50% of public transport use by 2030 and 55% by 2040. Where that is directly to deal with expansion, it will be paid for by the developer.

Equality Act 2010: Wheelchair Users

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Masham of Ilton (CB)]

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper. In so doing, I declare an interest as a user of a wheelchair and taxis.

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)]

My Lords, in February 2014, I instructed officials to carry out a survey in order to provide a better understanding of the range of issues facing wheelchair users around the country when using taxis or private hire vehicles. I shared the outcomes of this research with ministerial colleagues and discussions are continuing across government on how best to address these issues, including the possible commencement of Sections 165 and 167 of the Equality Act.

[Baroness Masham of Ilton]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for that reply but it has been five years since the Equality Act was enacted, and Sections 165 and 167 are still not enforced. Does the Minister know that the BBC in Leeds did some research recently in Stafford by sending someone out with a disabled person for 12 taxi rides, and she was charged extra every time?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, as I say, discussions are continuing but the news that the noble Baroness shares is disturbing. The issue that the Government are attempting to deal with is that there is some lack of clarity within Section 165 and there are potential questions, therefore, around enforceability. The question is whether this issue should be dealt with better in the possible legislation that would follow the Government’s response to the Law Commission report on taxi reform more generally.

[Baroness Brinton (LD)]

My Lords, charging is not the only problem that wheelchair users face with taxis. Are the Government considering whether there should be a requirement for any taxi that claims it is wheelchair-friendly to have just one ramp, because many have two ramps, which are inaccessible to people in electric wheelchairs?

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, the assumption is that charging is a violation of the broad anti-discrimination clauses of the Equality Act because one cannot discriminate and charge additional amounts for services provided to disabled people. In terms of ramps and the other issues that the noble Baroness describes, there are many problems for wheelchair users in accessing taxis and private hire vehicles. Again, a more extensive piece of legislation may be required to deal with this broader range of issues, which we are increasingly aware of.

[Lord Touhig (Lab)]

My Lords, no one who is disabled should be penalised because of their disability. Recognising this in May last year, the Law Commission’s review recommended that all taxi drivers should receive disability awareness training. Do the Government accept this recommendation and, if they do, when will it be implemented?

[Baroness Kramer]

The Government are still working on their response to the extensive report from the Law Commission and that is one of the recommendations that must be addressed in the reply. I remind the House that there will be post-legislative scrutiny in the next Session of the disability provisions in the Equality Act. There are several ways of tackling these problems.

[Lord Low of Dalston (CB)]

My Lords, did the Minister’s instructions to her officials and the ensuing discussions cover the carriage of disabled people using assistance dogs?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, we have commenced the relevant sections 168 to 171 of the Equality Act, which cover assistance guide dogs.

[Lord Tebbit (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Lord is absolutely right—there is a great deal of difficulty for those who use assistance dogs. These difficulties arise in taxis, attempting to get into taxis and people being ignored because they have got a dog, in hotels, restaurants and other places. Does my noble friend agree that something needs to be done—I would be grateful if my noble friend would do it—to enforce the law to ensure that people with assistance dogs are not discriminated against?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, I cannot give the general national numbers but Transport for London has brought something like 28 prosecutions in relation to guide dogs and taxis and has succeeded in at least 20 of those cases. Action is being taken but, as I say, broader issues need to be captured.

[Lord Davies of Oldham (Lab)]

My Lords, why does not the Minister fess up and acknowledge that the Government have made a complete shambles of taxi regulation? The only way in which we got effective regulation of taxis and any sense out of the Deregulation Bill, which the Government introduced ahead of the Law Commission’s final position, was through Cross-Bench and Labour amendments which the Government eventually effected. Now we have another Act of Parliament on which consultation is still taking place after five years. The record is disgraceful and the Minister should acknowledge that.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Kramer]

Your Lordships will be aware that, in the Deregulation Bill, the changes that allowed an operator to use taxis from another area were largely motivated by enabling operators to reach a broader range of taxis and private hire vehicles that had disabled access.

[Baroness Wilkins (Lab)]

My Lords, the Law Commission recommended that taxis should have a duty to stop when hailed. Does the Minister not agree that it would cost nothing to enforce this and to tell taxi drivers that they would risk their licence if they did not?

[Baroness Kramer]

The noble Baroness is right: this is the problem most highlighted by people in wheelchairs or who have guide dogs. There is currently no requirement under the law or within the taxi licence that taxis have to stop. They are not allowed to discriminate but they are not required to stop for anyone. The Law Commission recommended that this issue should be addressed. As I say, the Government are working on their response to the Law Commission and legislation may follow.

[Baroness Grey-Thompson (CB)]

My Lords, it is quite a tough time for disabled people at the moment, whether because of the increased cost of taxi fares, which is reported as being rife, the recent High Court case about priority for wheelchair users on buses or the fact that 100 Motability cars are being removed from people every single week. Do not disabled people deserve the same rights to access public transport as everyone else?

[Baroness Kramer]

The noble Baroness is absolutely right. The constant message from the Government is that people with disabilities are a normal part of our community. She will be aware of the great strides that we have made in terms of accessibility on trains and buses. That has involved driver training, along with our recent progress in creating cheap audiovisual systems which can be retrofitted in buses. A great deal is happening, but much more must be done.

Drug Driving (Specified Limits) (England and Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2015

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2015 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Baroness Kramer]

That the draft Regulations laid before the House on 5 February be approved.

Relevant document: 23rd Report from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments. Considered in Grand Committee on 11 March.

Motion agreed.

Drug Driving (Specified Limits) (England and Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2015

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Wednesday 11th March 2015 Grand Committee

Moved by

[Baroness Kramer]

The Grand Committee do consider the Drug Driving (Specified Limits) (England and Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2015.

Relevant document: 23rd Report from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)]

My Lords, this instrument is being made to include amphetamine with a limit of 250 micrograms per litre of blood in the new drug-driving offence of driving with a specified drug in the body above a specified limit. The new offence was made in the Crime and Courts Act 2013, which inserted a new Section 5A into the Road Traffic Act 1988.

The Drug Driving (Specified Limits) (England and Wales) Regulations 2014 were made on 24 October 2014 and specified 16 other drugs and their limits, and the new offence came into force in England and Wales on 2 March. As noble Lords are aware, the Report on the Review of Drink and Drug Driving Law by Sir Peter North concluded that there was,

“a significant drug driving problem”,

and recommended the new offence and the inclusion of amphetamine. The expert panel, in its report published in March 2013, also recommended the inclusion of amphetamine in the new drug-driving offence. It quoted the Driving Under the Influence of Drugs, Alcohol and Medicines project—the European DRUID project—suggesting that amphetamine represents a medium to high risk of a traffic accident. The DRUID researchers did not find an impairment effect at therapeutic doses, but a negative driving performance could be detected at high doses.

As noble Lords are probably aware, the Government have considered carefully what the appropriate level should be for amphetamine. The expert panel recommended a limit of 600 micrograms per litre of blood if we were to take an approach where the risk of a road traffic collision is most likely to occur. However, while amphetamine has significant medical use, the Government had concerns over the amount of illegal use. The expert panel described it as,

“an illicit substance, a long standing member of the drug scene”.

The approach to setting a limit for this drug was therefore not as clear cut as for others. A zero-tolerance approach to illegal drugs such as cannabis and cocaine was taken, while a road safety risk approach was taken to drugs more associated with medical use. The Government therefore used the consultation in summer 2013 to seek further views and evidence on what a suitable limit might be.

Many of the responses proposed a limit much closer to the zero-tolerance approach, so we reconsulted on a limit of 50 micrograms per litre of blood from December 2013 to the end of January 2014. However, we received several objections from the medical profession to the proposed limit. In particular, specialists in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, more commonly known as ADHD, for which amphetamine is a recognised treatment—many have told me that it is a primary treatment—argued that the condition affects the ability to concentrate, and while patients represent an increased road safety risk when unmedicated, they are just as safe as the general population when taking their medication. These respondents backed up their arguments with research. Their concern was that prescribers and ADHD patients must not be discouraged from prescribing medication or taking it. We recognise that adult ADHD often goes undiagnosed or treatment of it is stopped after having it as a child. This represents real road safety risks, which need to be addressed through treatment. We therefore concluded that the proposed limit of 50 micrograms might discourage those with ADHD seeking or continuing with treatment. It is therefore much more appropriate to set a limit that is above the therapeutic range that ADHD sufferers are most likely to be prescribed and below the level of those most likely to be abusing medication.

After holding extensive informal discussions with specialists in ADHD and with the Secretary of State’s honorary medical advisory panel on alcohol, drugs and substance misuse and driving, we have agreed that a limit of 250 micrograms per litre of blood is the most appropriate limit. The advisory panel quoted the analysis of 2,995 blood samples taken between 2008 and 2012 across the UK in suspected drug-driving cases showing that median and average concentrations of amphetamine were 270 and 456 micrograms per litre of blood respectively. The Government have, therefore, concluded from their consultation with the above ADHD specialists and the advisory panel that the level of 250 micrograms would successfully balance the legitimate use of amphetamine for medical purposes against its abuse by those who represent a risk on the road as a result of taking amphetamine.

I recognise that in July and September last year, during the debates on the regulations that specified the other 16 drugs and their limits, the Government indicated that they intended to reconsult on a limit for amphetamine, but given the extensive discussions that we have held with medical stakeholders, we take the view that we have now had sufficient opportunity to consider the views of all of the relevant parties and that conducting a third formal consultation on a limit for amphetamine is no longer appropriate or necessary.

As the new drug-driving offence commenced on 2 March, the Government believe that it is important that amphetamine is added to the list of drugs as soon as possible so that those who abuse amphetamine and who continue to drive and put lives at risk can expect to be caught and prosecuted for the new offence. I acknowledge that there is not a roadside screening device for amphetamine, only for cannabis and cocaine, but should there be any suspicion of the consumption of this drug or any other specified drug, a blood test can be administered and a blood concentration level of above the specified limit will result in prosecution. Specifying amphetamine will create certainty in the market and enable manufacturers to consider research and development of roadside screeners for this drug, which is one of the more prevalent drugs in drug-driving cases. I urge noble Lords to agree to include amphetamine at the limit proposed so we send a strong message that this House, Parliament and wider society will not tolerate those who persist in drug-driving and the threat they pose to other road users. I therefore recommend approval of these regulations. I beg to move.

[The Earl of Dundee (Con)]

My Lords, all of us will welcome these new regulations, which my noble friend presents. We know already that there are two patterns; the first is that of those who have been prescribed amphetamine medically, whose level will almost certainly be under 200 micrograms per litre of blood tested; the second is that of those taking illicit drugs, normally in excess of 270 micrograms per litre of blood. Therefore, it makes sense, as my noble friend points out, and as the regulations stipulate, to have a limit of 250 micrograms per litre of blood—below the second measure and well above the first.

On saving lives and reducing road accidents caused by drugs, other recent interventions are also to be welcomed. These include the recent publicity campaign as well as new screening devices for drugs. However, there are still far too many road accidents. As we are aware, a high proportion is caused by drivers between 18 and 25 years of age. Will my noble friend say what action she and her colleagues might be prepared to take? One such, which has proved to work well in Australia as well as in a number of other states, is a restriction on carrying passengers applied to those in their early of years of driving.

Will the Minister also say what plans we have to help raise road standards, both here and internationally? In the World Health Organization, there is now a technical consultation committee on drugs and driving. Might its focus be widened to include drink as well as drugs; and apart from those substances, could international scrutiny be developed to compare notes on all pragmatic measures to help reduce accidents?

In Europe we have the DRUID project, to which my noble friend referred. What has this achieved lately? Which further steps, initiatives and co-ordination may be desirable to improve its results?

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[Viscount Simon (Lab)]

My Lords, the Minister gave a very interesting outline to the order and, as usual, the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, asked some very interesting questions. I do not intend to ask any further questions but, purely out of academic interest, it may amuse the Minister to learn that last week I happened to be in the garage of a police traffic centre where they were giving instructions on the use of the drug-screening equipment. I was present for the whole course, and the inspector said that I had passed. He said that each kit cost £16 and therefore that they would not be used very often, because they cost so much. So who knows when they will be used. However, if they are used and they fail, they can still be used under the old legislation.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, thank you very much. I shall talk through the questions in reverse order, with the latest being freshest in my mind. I can say to the noble Viscount, Lord Simon, that the cost of these screening devices is around £16 or £17—obviously there is some variation in price. He will be glad to know that at this point 35 of the 43 forces have purchased mobile screening devices, with 5,000 purchased in total. He is right that it is more expensive than testing for drink-driving, which costs something around 17p or 18p per device. I think that the normal pattern will be to test for drink-driving but, in those cases where drink-driving is not established as the cause of concern, police forces may well choose—on many fewer occasions—to then do a roadside test for drug-driving, the penalties being identical. They can of course always require the individual to go to the police station for a blood test. Indeed, the blood test is always a necessary step when there is a prosecution. With that kind of gradation, police forces should find this to be an affordable strategy. In fact, the feedback that we have is that they are very pleased to have a tool to help them to deal with drug-driving, which is an issue of very significant concern.

The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, raised several issues. I think he has heard me speak many times on the issue of precision in forecasts. I do not think that there is any such thing as precision in forecasts, and I sometimes wonder why we do not generally round numbers up, although in this case we did not go to the right of the decimal point. However, a forecast enables people to get in the ballpark, to use an American term, of what we think that the impact will be. That is an important piece of information to include when we do an assessment.

The noble Lord asked why we have not had a third consultation. I am afraid that I cannot tell him the exact date we decided that it would be too frustrating to go ahead with the third consultation. There was a general awareness that, having asked people the same question twice, we were unlikely to get a different answer when we went back for a third time. Informal consultations had been happening on an ongoing basis, making it even more redundant. However, more to the point, as he will know, the offence came into force under Section 5A on 2 March, and going through a round of consultation and then creating a much greater gap before amphetamines came on to the list seemed the greater evil. A third consultation would essentially confirm the information that had already been extensively received. It strikes me that it was a rather logical decision of the kind that government sometimes does not make.

[Lord Rosser]

My point was that if the conclusion was reached in September 2014 or shortly afterwards that there was no need for a third formal consultation, why have we waited until now to have this order? The second consultation was apparently conducted between 17 December 2013 and 3 January 2014, in something like six weeks over the Christmas and New Year period, so a further consultation could presumably have been completed in something like a month if it was not being held over Christmas and New Year. That is the bit that I cannot quite follow. It seems to have taken a very long time to conclude that a third consultation was not necessary, yet presumably all the information was available.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Kramer]

The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, asked why we were not at 50 rather than 250 micrograms, what risk there is because we are going with the higher limit and how we got there. Having consulted on these issues twice, it became very evident that there were complex issues involved in setting a limit for amphetamine, more so than with other drugs that we have been working on. If people with ADHD drive unmedicated, and are not therefore trapped by any of these regulations, there is a very high risk that they drive unsafely. That is very much associated with that condition. However, research shows that if they are taking proper medication, they are as safe as the rest of the population. Therefore, it is very important that people with ADHD are entirely comfortable with the idea that they can take their medication and not be excluded from driving and that their doctors know that they can prescribe medication and that those individuals will not be precluded from driving. That was an added degree of complexity in setting these limits.

[Lord Rosser]

Is the argument that if one fixes the limit at 50 micrograms, one is liable to be in a situation where the driving of an individual who is sticking to that limit is likely to be more impaired, for the reasons the Minister just mentioned, than if the limit is fixed at 250 and they are driving with, say, 249?

[Baroness Kramer]

It is only part of the argument because that would be true for ADHD patients. We took the issues back to the expert panel, which clarified that the point at which driving risk becomes significant with amphetamine is 270 micrograms. We did not want to set a line at 270. We wanted to have a little bit of a margin. The medical community felt that doctors could safely prescribe within 250. With 270 defined by the expert panel as the level at which risk would significantly increase, the Government coalesced around the 250 number. Obviously many people looking at enforcement discourage the use of amphetamine at all, and that is one of the attractions of using the lower number. In the process of pursuing all this, we recognised that setting it at 50, which had been one of our early thoughts in this process, was too low. We were not gaining anything in terms of safety, other than the deterrent effect, and we were potentially encouraging wrong decisions by people who have ADHD and need to take medication. They might end up not taking it because of their concerns over the benchmark.

Going back to the expert panel that advised the Secretary of State took a significant amount of time. That is what brought us much closer to this deadline. With the law going into effect on 2 March, it is appropriate for us to come forward with the decision rather than go through a consultation that we have no reason to believe will yield any information that we have not already received in the course of the first two consultations and the informal work that has taken place.

I agree very much that that has been a complicated process. It is difficult to describe and sometimes frustrating to have to listen to, so I apologise for that.

I also have to say to the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, that—as always—he has picked up on a genuine typo and error within one of the explanatory memoranda, although I am now uncertain which one it is. We can confirm it later. He was talking about the percentage of convictions. The figure 72% applies to 2013—it is a typo in whichever document that said it was 2012. The figure 54% applied to 2012, so it was a failure to change the date from one document to the other. If he would like, I am happy to ask officials to write to him just to provide some clarification. This has been a very good lesson in the need to double check numbers although I have to say that, given the complexity of this, officials have done some brilliant work.

I have covered the key questions from the noble Lord, Lord Rosser. I now come to those from my noble friend Lord Dundee who raised the question of how to improve road safety standards here and internationally, with drug-driving as an element of that. In the Deregulation Bill we removed some loopholes around drug-driving and drink-driving provisions that allowed people to disregard roadside screening and insist on a blood test, during which time their levels could have changed. Loopholes like that have been removed within by Deregulation Bill.

I have spoken in debates in the House about whether we should be taking further actions to limit the circumstances in which young or new drivers can drive. It has also been a difficult balancing act because access to training, education and jobs frequently requires young people to drive. Indeed, we also want them to participate in the workplace more generally. The direction that we have chosen to go in is that rather than restricting the passengers they can carry or various other kinds of restrictions, we are looking at trialling work going on now with the insurance companies looking at the use of telematics. I can send the noble Lord all the details. As I have described in the House, telematics is a gizmo which sits in the vehicle and communicates with the insurance company to give an ongoing, running assessment of the quality of driving. Is it speeding, is it rough, is it erratic? All those kinds of behaviour can be fed back into the car itself. Anyone looking to purchase insurance and going on to the various insurance websites will find that if they permit telematics to be installed in their car they will in fact nearly always get a much cheaper insurance package. That looks to be the direction. We are trying to verify that there is a genuine relationship between the feedback from the telematics and safer driving. As we get the answers to that, that may well provide us with the direction to go so that we let young people have their freedom but yet have ways of ensuring that driving standards improve.

[The Earl of Dundee]

I am most grateful to my noble friend. I am interested to hear about that process from which, as she points out, sooner or later there will some analysis. That will help us to know what is good about it. Are any other states doing the same or are we the first country to do this?

[Baroness Kramer]

I cannot properly answer that question. Certainly we are one of the leading countries in telematics. I will be glad to write to my noble friend to cover these issues, which are of interest, significance and importance.

My noble friend Lord Dundee also raised the question of international standards and the role that the Government play through international organisations to impact on those standards. Departmental officials are part of the WHO technical consultation group on drug use and road safety, of which representatives of the DRUID project are a part. This group first met in December 2014 and the WHO now recognises that more needs to be done globally to combat drug-driving. It has informed the DfT that this new offence and our extended THINK! campaign—which I will mention in a safety context in a moment—are excellent examples for other countries. Approximately 20% of countries have no drug-driving offence whereas virtually every country has a drink-driving offence. This offence is not yet internationally accepted.

Our THINK! campaign is targeted particularly at those groups of the population which we know from historical experience are more likely to take the risk of drug-driving—young men, I am afraid—and communicates with them through their chosen media and the way in which it focuses its messaging. We are using that important mechanism of communication so that people know that this is an offence and that they are a risk in that sense, and to help them understand the risks associated with drug-driving.

[The Earl of Dundee]

On the issue of international efforts, comparisons and best practice, the technical committee of the World Health Organization is to do with substances. The DRUID project’s focus may be wider—I do not know. It might simply be to encourage a comparison of notes to reduce accidents in whatever way that can be done. Apart from the DRUID initiative in Europe and the World Health Organization’s international one for substances, there could even be a third process internationally that seeks to bring together representatives from a number of countries to talk through what they think could work best and how there might be convergence. Can my noble friend say what is happening in this way and distinguish between various endeavours?

[Baroness Kramer]

I think we have exhausted my capacity for guidance. However, these are important issues. My noble friend is right, the international exchange of information is always significant: we learn from others and share what we learn with others. There is satisfaction in being praised by the WHO for the direction that we have taken. I am sure that others will watch this process as closely as we watch their processes. If my noble friend will indulge me, I will follow up with a letter. That will be more appropriate and will ensure that I am not misleading him or leaving out important information.

[Lord Rosser]

Perhaps I may establish whether I have understood the point correctly. We support the order and are not opposing it. We have discussed the issue of amphetamine being taken for medical reasons, but do I take it that the Government’s position in relation to people who are not taking it for medical reasons but are taking it illegally is that increasing the limit from 50 to 250 micrograms does not represent a significant worsening of the impairment in the driving of the individual?

[Baroness Kramer]

The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, has accurately reflected the circumstances. The advice that we received ultimately from the expert panel after sifting through all the evidence it received is that 270 micrograms per litre of blood moves an individual into the serious risk environment. Therefore, setting the limit at 250 met the test of falling below that level but still allowed doctors to prescribe appropriately to patients with ADHD. We were looking at 50 micrograms but got it wrong. That is why one goes through consultations, to learn and understand. The noble Lord will know that the enforcement community is attracted by 50 micrograms because of its deterrent effect. However, after putting all the pieces together, there is no additional significant risk associated with going from 50 to 250, as we understand it from the expert witnesses.

Motion agreed.

Electrically Assisted Pedal Cycles (Amendment) Regulations 2015

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd March 2015 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Baroness Kramer]

That the draft regulations and draft orders laid before the House on 14 and 16 January be approved.

Relevant documents: 20th and 21st Reports from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments, 25th Report from the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee. Considered in Grand Committee on 24 February.

Motions agreed.

Cyclists: Safety

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Jordan]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the findings of the YouGov survey on cycling safety commissioned by the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents.

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)]

My Lords, I received the top lines of the YouGov report only late last week. The YouGov survey asked many useful and interesting questions about attitudes to cycling and is sufficiently data rich to stand more detailed analysis. One key finding, which we are pleased to note, is the evidence of considerable latent willingness to engage in more cycling, which justifies the Government’s strategy on supporting cycling provision.

[Lord Jordan (Lab)]

I thank the Minister for her reply and declare an interest as a vice-president of RoSPA. The RoSPA-commissioned YouGov poll has given us some compelling insights into the need for greater provision for cyclists. One-third of people think that cycling safety is one of the biggest transport issues we face; two-thirds back the idea of a network of cycle routes; and 78% say they would like to see separate cycle lanes. The Government have given money to certain cities, but with more than 100 cyclists a year being killed, what will the Government do now, given these findings, to accelerate the introduction of safe cycling provisions for all our roads?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, one death from cycling is one death too many, so obviously we are very concerned with safety. Your Lordships will be aware that we launched a THINK! Cyclist campaign in 2012, and a third round of this is planned to run in 12 cities in March 2015—the original five cities and seven additional ones. We have made it easier for councils to introduce 20 miles per hour zones and 40 miles per hour zones in rural areas, and Trixi mirrors. The Deputy Prime Minister announced £100 million to improve conditions for cyclists and walkers, alongside and crossing the strategic road network. We have set up a task force with Transport for London to raise awareness of safety among HGV drivers and to take targeted enforcement against the minority of potentially dangerous operators, drivers and vehicles. We are always looking at more ways to make cycling safe.

[Baroness Sharples (Con)]

Would my noble friend care to comment on pedestrian safety?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, I do not have any numbers with me on pedestrian safety, but I will be glad to write to my noble friend on that issue. Pedestrian safety is obviously a key consideration as well.

[Lord Scott of Foscote (CB)]

Does the Minister agree that a cyclist’s main protection should be his or her own eyes and ears? The eyes are there to warn against impending danger from the front and the ears ought to assist in identifying impending danger from behind. I cycle regularly from my flat in Camden to Westminster—it used to be Lincoln’s Inn, then it was the Royal Courts of Justice and now it is Westminster—and I am appalled by the number of cyclists who bicycle with earplugs in their ears listening to music. If they listen to music, they cannot possibly hear any danger approaching from behind. There are regulations to ensure the use of lights on bicycles in dark or dingy weather. Should there not also be a regulation to prevent the highly dangerous practice to which I have referred?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, it is important that everyone does all they can to try to improve cycle safety. In London, many of the recent incredibly sad deaths have been related to collisions with HGVs. Europe has adopted, and we are enforcing, new rules on goods vehicles in consequence of that, and London is taking it further with its Safer Lorry Scheme, which will be more fully implemented in September. There is a whole variety of actions that we can take; London’s superhighways are another example. Much of the money announced today for the eight cycle cities may well go on segregated cycle provision.

[Lord Brooke of Alverthorpe (Lab)]

My Lords, why are the Government so resistant to introducing 20 miles per hour limits for vehicles in cities and towns throughout the country?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, it must be a local decision. There are some areas where decisions should be made not by government at the centre but by local government, which understands the local circumstances. Changes have been made to make it much easier for that to be implemented. Change in the rules on road layouts and changes in signage mean that it is now much easier for a community that wishes to have 20 miles per hour limits to make sure that they are in place.

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, since three recent fatalities of cyclists in London have been caused by tipping lorries, and as most of the fatalities have been caused by heavy lorries, often turning left, is it not a top priority for the Government to see that heavy lorries are redesigned so that the driver’s vision is not restricted? As for road junction safety, is it not a scandal that, as revealed by the Mayor of London in response to a Liberal Democrat question, something like £50 million of the present budget available for cycling safety has not been spent in the current financial year?

[Baroness Kramer]

As my noble friend knows, central government made £15 million available to London to deal with some of the worst junctions. That has been important and I obviously want to see that implemented. We have a wide range of approaches to dealing with issues around HGVs, including new rules that will mean that cabs are safer and vision is better. We are working on the technical standards that will apply to those rules.

[Lord Butler of Brockwell (CB)]

My Lords, please will the Minister address the question raised by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Scott of Foscote, about the case for regulation to prevent cyclists cycling with earplugs in their ears?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, enforceability is always absolutely crucial. I hesitate to tell cyclists exactly what they should do when there is so much scope for us to make improvements in other areas, and I suggest that we pursue those. Obviously, cycle training matters and addresses many of those issues, and we have invested a great deal in Bikeability.

[Lord Rosser (Lab)]

The noble and learned Lord, Lord Scott of Foscote, asked a question about headphones. I do not think that he got an answer to it and no doubt the noble Baroness the Minister will wish to respond. However, the Government’s Cycling Delivery Plan, published more than a year late, contains no specific targets on increasing the percentage of journeys undertaken by bike from the current level of 2% and no specific long-term funding targets for cycling. Bearing in mind that, following pressure from Labour and cycling organisations, among others, the Infrastructure Act included a requirement to produce a cycling and walking investment strategy, do the Government intend to update the Cycling Delivery Plan by including the specific targets that are currently lacking and to which I have just referred?

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, noble Lords will be aware that the Government have committed over £588 million to cycling—more than double the previous Government—and that has been absolutely crucial. The cycling and walking investment strategy will require a major piece of work, including a great deal of consultation, to design investment for the future, but our goal is to get to the £10 per head benchmark, which I think is widely accepted as the right number.

Renewable Transport Fuel Obligations (Amendment) Order 2015

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 24th February 2015 Grand Committee

Moved by

[Baroness Kramer]

That the Grand Committee do consider the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligations (Amendment) Order 2015.

Relevant documents: 20th Report from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments, 25th Report from the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)]

My Lords, the order follows a good deal of consultation and makes some relatively small but important changes to the renewable transport fuel obligation scheme—the RTFO. The changes would improve consistency in the way the RTFO treats two different types of biodiesel, and would encourage investment in renewable gaseous fuels. The RTFO is a certificate trading scheme that places an obligation on suppliers of fossil fuels in the UK to ensure that certain amounts of sustainable biofuel are supplied. The obligation can be met by redeeming renewable transport fuel certificates known as RTFCs. Their value is determined by the market, and trading them provides a financial reward for those supplying renewable transport fuel.

The RTFO order was amended in 2011 to ensure that only biofuels meeting mandatory sustainability criteria were rewarded with RTFCs. The 2011 amendment also introduced new requirements on suppliers to report on the sustainability of the biofuel being supplied and for this to be assured through independent verification. In April last year we published our response to a call for evidence on additional support mechanisms for advanced and more sustainable fuels. At the same time, we concluded a post-implementation review of the RTFO scheme. The review considered the extent to which the RTFO had achieved its objectives to support the supply of sustainable biofuels in the UK. The review also noted the significant achievements made by the UK biofuel industry to date.

Since the RTFO was introduced in 2008, savings in greenhouse gas emissions, excluding impacts from indirect land use change, have increased from 46% to reach 69% in 2013-14. The most recent statistics also showed that 46% of biofuels supplied in the UK were made from a waste or residue such as used cooking oil, which does not compete for land with food crops. A further public consultation on the proposed changes to the RTFO order we are considering today ran in the summer of 2014.

This small group of amendments aims to build on the RTFO scheme’s success and deliver two important commitments. The amendments will, first, provide consistency in respect of how we treat renewable fuels under the RTFO by aligning the treatment of two particular types of biodiesel; and, secondly, encourage investment in the development of emerging renewable transport technologies such as sustainable renewable gaseous fuels, by adjusting the reward provided to reflect their higher energy content relative to liquid biofuels.

Hydotreated vegetable oil, or HVO, and fatty acid methyl ester, or FAME, are both renewable fuels that can be blended with diesel. The biological feedstocks used in the HVO process are similar to those used for FAME: for example, vegetable or plant oils and waste animal fats. In both the FAME and HVO processes, a secondary, non-biological feedstock is used and incorporated into the final fuel. For FAME, this is methanol derived from natural gas, while for HVO it is hydrogen produced from natural gas. However, although FAME is deemed to be 100% renewable in calculating the reward of RTFCs, HVO is currently not. The effect of the order would be to provide for HVO to be treated in the same way as FAME. This is in line with our emerging understanding of how HVO should be treated under the renewable energy directive and is consistent with the approach in other EU member states to these two types of biodiesel.

Our policy aim for gaseous fuels is to level the playing field for renewable gaseous and liquid fuels. Doing so provides a clear signal that the UK Government will provide a positive investment climate for those looking to supply renewable gaseous fuels in the HGV and other sectors. Renewable gaseous fuels are currently rewarded at one RTFC per kilogram of fuel supplied, and liquid renewable fuels at one RTFC per litre. However, the energy contained in a kilogram of gaseous fuel is generally higher than the energy found in a litre of liquid fuel. The draft order would provide that 1.9 RTFCs per kilogram would be rewarded for biomethane and 1.75 RTFCs per kilogram for both biopropane and biobutane. As is the case now, double the amount of RTFCs would be awarded where the fuel is produced from wastes or residues.

I am aware that the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee has reasonably advised the House that the order may imperfectly deliver the policy, due to uncertainties highlighted by the department in our cost-benefit analysis. I will address the concern that has been raised. The range of costs and benefits is essentially determined by which sort of biodiesel will be displaced by extra RTFCs going to renewable gaseous fuel. We are estimating discounted carbon-reduction benefits of £2.65 million, assuming a 50:50 spilt in the displacement of biodiesel from waste versus biodiesel from crop.

Waste-derived biodiesel is incentivised by being awarded twice the number of certificates per litre compared to crop-based biodiesel. As a consequence, it is a more cost-effective option in meeting the obligation. There would only be a carbon cost should a significant volume of waste-derived biodiesel be displaced—and then only if approaching 60% of the displacement was of waste-derived biodiesel.

As biodiesel from waste is the cheaper option to meet the obligation, and is in limited supply, we fully expect that biodiesel from crop would be displaced by increased rewards for renewable gaseous fuels. This means that the carbon savings for 2015 to 2020 are likely to be towards the higher end of those estimated in our cost-benefit analysis central scenario—nearer the £16 million benefit end of the scale. Further, I stress that we have limited options to decarbonise the heavy goods sector, and I believe that, in the long term, renewable gaseous fuels will be an important element in meeting our carbon-reduction targets.

The draft order will also introduce two measures to support effective administration. The first would update and streamline the powers of the RTFO administrator to require information. The second measure would put it beyond doubt that the administrator can apply mathematical rounding as part of calculating the number of RTFCs it issues.

Biofuels have proved a complex and controversial topic over the years. However, we know that vehicles are going to continue to require liquid and gaseous fuels for decades to come. We therefore need to develop technologies and capacity to produce low-carbon fuels in the UK, to reduce emissions from road transport and to encourage sustainable growth and jobs.

The proposed changes in the draft order are supported by stakeholders and make a number of worthwhile improvements in that direction. I know that the industry and investors would like to see greater certainty on the pathway to meeting the 2020 transport renewable energy target. The Committee will be pleased to hear that, in anticipation of measures to address indirect land use change—ILUC—being agreed in Europe later this year, we have been working with a very broad group of interested parties through our Transport Energy Task Force on precisely how to improve the investment climate. The group will report to Ministers in the coming months. I commend the draft order to the Committee.

[Lord Rosser (Lab)]

The only issue that I wished to raise—and I am sure that the Minister will hardly be surprised—was the report of the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee and the concerns it expressed. I had intended to mention them in order to give the Minister the opportunity to put the Government’s response on the record. She has, of course, already done that in her introductory comments.

In the light of the Minister’s speech, it rather begs the question why the three different scenarios of low, central and high were drawn up for the period 2015-20, given that, as I understand from her speech, she is almost dismissing at least one, if not two, of those scenarios as being based on unrealistic modelling assumptions. If she is so sure that the issue raised by the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee—that this is about not just a range of carbon savings but a range covering both carbon savings and carbon costs—will not be the case, why did we end up with a cost-benefit analysis that contained those projections? What is the case for having projections that the Government apparently do not believe for one minute are likely to occur? I would be grateful if she will address that point.

One of the things that the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee said, in paragraph 28, was:

“The central scenario assumes an increase in the size of the HGV fleet able to use gaseous fuel from the current 500 to 7,400 by 2020, that 12.5% of fuel used is renewable gaseous fuel and a 50/50 displacement split between the two types of biofuels. These are modelling assumptions. They do not as the CBA explains … ‘represent today’s mix of biofuels’”.

I am grateful to the Minister for having set out the Government’s response straight away, but I am still a little puzzled about why we have ended up with a document that has raised scenarios which, as I understand it from the Minister’s speech, the Government are now saying are extremely unlikely. Why include them in the first place if the Government do not believe that they are going to happen? What is the answer the point made by the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee that the 50/50 displacement split between two types of biofuels does not actually represent today’s mix of biofuels?

[Baroness Kramer]

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, for his comments. It is standard practice to look at a range of impacts in developing forecasts. I came out of business, and the department very much follows the same pattern of talking to the industry and all the various relevant groups whose behaviour can impact on those forecasts and coming up with a forecast that seems reasonable and likely and in which it has a high level of confidence. In this case, from the perspective of the department, it was considered to be quite a conservative estimate. It was chosen as what could be called the central forecast in which the department has the greatest level of confidence, based on the work, research and analysis that it has done.

It is also standard practice to then say, “What if we were wrong?”, and to look at both a more pessimistic range and at what would happen if we could, reasonably, be more optimistic about the behaviour of certain factors. I would hate to see the department, in doing its analysis, simply going with the forecast in which it had the greatest confidence, without presenting, for other people to consider, what the impact would be of variations in the underlying factors, both downwards and upwards. That is fairly standard and a wise way to present issues. It is also a way to tease out concerns that then have to be answered.

The answer to the concerns raised by the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, is that the department is convinced that all the logic and the discussions with all the various players indicate that the form of fuel most likely to be displaced is crop-based biodiesel rather than waste-based biodiesel, and because of that, the department has a great deal of confidence in the carbon benefits. Again, we raised those issues to discuss the cost-benefit analysis, as I think was entirely appropriate.

[Lord Rosser]

I asked the Minister about the report of the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee, which ends up saying:

“For this reason, we draw this Order to the special attention of the House on the ground that it may”—

may, not will—

“imperfectly achieve its policy objective”.

Is that a view with which the Government agree or disagree:

“it may imperfectly achieve its policy objective”?

[Baroness Kramer]

The Government have a high degree of confidence in their central forecast. I have never seen forecasts turn out exactly right, to the right-hand side of the decimal point. Forecasting is an attempt to look into and understand the future, so it is never a perfect science. It is right that that is always recognised. The noble Lord will also recognise that biodiesel and biofuel prices will always be volatile in this industry. That affects the trend, and there will be variance year on year in actual behaviour. It is right that there is always an element of uncertainty in forecasting, but it is also right to use the research, the analysis and the discussion with the industry to come up with the scenario in which one has the greatest confidence. That is what I think the department has, entirely appropriately, done. It has shaped and presented its policy on that basis. Given that understanding that it would be sheer arrogance to present only one scenario without considering both upside and downside, this is a considered policy that I think, generally, has been widely welcomed by all players and participants.

I also point out that the amendment makes only a small change to the current market for RTFCs. Although we are concerned to make sure that our modelling is as good as it can be and that it does not have the arrogance to ignore the fact that there are variances and volatilities, we also recognise that, were either the upside or the downside scenario to prove to be the one that actually played out, the impact would be relatively small because this is only a very small change in the current market for RTFCs.

I hope that, on that basis, the noble Lord will feel that the Government have taken a rational approach and that he will feel capable of supporting the order.

Motion agreed.