The Role and Capabilities of the UK Armed Forces, in the Light of Global and Domestic Threats to Stability and Security

Baroness Smith of Newnham Excerpts

Tuesday 15th September 2015 Grand Committee

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, I am most grateful to the noble Earl, Lord Howe, for introducing this debate, particularly today, the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Britain. I will take this opportunity to thank our Armed Forces for all the work that they do. Those noble Lords who are looking closely might notice that I am wearing an RAF lanyard today. I do not normally remember to wear it, but as a member of the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme—RAF branch—I thought that today would be an appropriate time to remind everyone of the importance of looking back to the role that our Armed Forces have played over the past century.

We must also look forward. Learning from the past matters immensely, but now is the time to be looking forward to the next strategic defence and security review and the next national security strategy. However, I fear to say that they go alongside a comprehensive spending review. The Minister has already mentioned that we have a template in the forthcoming SDSR—the SDSR 2010—yet in many ways that document was a problem. It dealt with one set of issues: defence spending, procurement and the ongoing defence expenditure problems. It dealt with things on a managerial and accountancy basis. It had some good ideas in terms of Future Force 2020, but essentially it was a Treasury-led activity. So I was relieved to hear the noble Earl suggest today that the forthcoming review would focus on what the threats are to this country rather more than on what the bottom line looks like.

How far will the Government focus on strategy? It is very easy to talk about defence. There is a group of people who talk about defence, what we need to achieve, what the threats are and what the capabilities are or should be. We talk about security in a wider sense, but rarely do we think about the strategic and the longer term. That is one thing that was missing from SDSR 2010. There is a danger that it could be missing from SDSR 2015 as well. However, the opening speech this afternoon suggested that that may not be the case. Certainly, the commitment in the Budget of July 2015 to the 2% that NATO requires of us was a welcome announcement.

The percentage of GDP spent on defence is only part of the issue. Money is important, but how we spend that money, what the procurement strategy is and what we are trying to achieve are also factors that matter enormously. The amount that we put into the budget is important, but what risks do we face? What are the capabilities that we aspire to deliver? All of that goes back to the question of the United Kingdom’s role in the world. That remains an issue that has been insufficiently discussed in the United Kingdom, essentially ever since the end of the Cold War.

We have already heard this afternoon that there is a global role for the United Kingdom to play, but perhaps that is not universally believed in across the United Kingdom. It is not wholly clear, with the change of leader of Her Majesty’s loyal Opposition, that a commitment to defence and to an international role for the United Kingdom is one that all parties are committed to. So there are questions about where the United Kingdom sees its place in the world that will impact on how we deal with threats, domestic and global, and what future capabilities we think we need.

Returning to SDSR 2010, the government response to the House of Commons Defence Committee’s report stated:

“We can assure the Committee that we will be looking very closely at the evolving threats to our interests in the SDSR”.

Clearly, it is important to look closely, but I suggest that it is also important to look across the horizon. One of the issues that beset the previous NSS and SDSR was a failure to look to the longer term. We looked at the threats as they were in 2010, not at prospective threats. Obviously it is easy with the benefit of hindsight to say, “We should have thought about Russia and we could have thought about the Middle East”. We did not, but one of the lessons has to be that we need to think about the unpredictable, as well as about potential threats and how we might deal with them. So we should look closely, but we should also look long and hard into the distance.

I will briefly suggest that we need to think about our place in the world, how we respond to threats, and what that means for our capabilities. It is easy to talk as if Britain remains a major global player. That has been the predominant narrative of political parties ever since the end of the Cold War, and yet the considerable cuts in defence expenditure as a result of the end of the Cold War and as a result of austerity mean that we have seen considerable cuts made to the Armed Forces, which raises questions about what we can deliver. What we want to deliver depends very much on whether we think that we should be a global player or that our predominant role is that of a regional player. I suspect that most Members of your Lordships’ House, and certainly those present in Grand Committee today, believe that we should be playing a global role. However, if we want to do that, we have to make sure that our commitments are credible.

If we are going to play a global role, is it one that will be predominantly for humanitarian intervention or do we perceive ourselves as a country which may still need to intervene for other purposes? Why do we arm ourselves? Is it for the defence of the United Kingdom—the predominant role of the state—or is it to defend others? How far are we seeking to defend our partners and allies in NATO and how far are we seeking to deal with the problems in Iraq by helping the Iraqi Government because they asked us, or is it because we perceive a threat to the United Kingdom? Here we see the nexus between the domestic and the global. In the 1970s, we assumed that terrorism to the extent that it affected the United Kingdom would be linked to Northern Ireland and to a particular grouping, and that even if funding for the IRA was coming from third countries, it was essentially a domestic problem.

In the 21st century, terrorism is global. The source might be predominantly from the Middle East, but much of it potentially will feed back to the United Kingdom as well, and therefore the global nature of terrorism links back strongly to the threats we are dealing with. However, we need to be clear about whether we are responding to challenges that affect the United Kingdom or taking on the global threat of ISIS. Why we are doing it is going to be hugely important in determining how we deal with these issues and how decisions on deploying the Armed Forces in future are taken—particularly in the other place, where such decisions are likely to be made. Given the importance of tackling the threats of the 21st century, I would be keen for the Minister not only to reiterate the Government’s global view but to consider how far the SDSR and the NSS will deal with strategic decisions rather than simply tactics.

I was going to talk a bit about bilateral, multilateral and other forms of co-operation, but I was delighted to hear that the Minister has already dealt with these issues. Given that he has taken them into account, I do not feel the need to opine any further on them. I will therefore conclude with a brief reference to the phenomenal commitment of our Armed Forces and raise the question of whether we believe that we are going to be adequately equipped and that our forces will be large enough to deal with the threats of the 21st century. There are still questions to be asked about the cuts that were brought in by SDSR 2010 and to consider the moves to increase the Reserve Forces. This is welcome, but it raises a whole set of new questions around whether the Armed Forces will be dealt with adequately. Questions about recruitment and retention need to be dealt with. The more cases we deal with on an international basis, the more deployments we will have. That will raise ever more questions about how we ensure that our reserves are kept fully on board and looked after in the way that we owe them. We owe our Armed Forces a debt of gratitude and we need to look after them. In return, they will provide us with the commitment that we will need to tackle 21st century threats.