Finance (No. 4) Bill Debate

Full Debate: Read Full Debate
Department: HM Treasury

Finance (No. 4) Bill

Ben Gummer Excerpts
Thursday 19th April 2012

(12 years ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Rachel Reeves Portrait Rachel Reeves
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Winston Churchill was right in 1925 when he introduced that measure. People who are retired have fixed incomes, as a result of which there are more pressures on them and they cannot make up the additional changes. That is why the Opposition will vote against the Government’s change. We do not think it is the right priority or the right thing to do at this time, especially because the money is not being used to help young people to get back to work, to help the poorest pensioners or to help families of children who are struggling with the rise in the cost of living. Instead, the money is being used to give a tax cut of £40,000 to 14,000 millionaires. I can tell the hon. Gentleman what my principle is: we should prioritise ordinary families, ordinary pensioners and young people who are out of work, not those on multi-million pound salaries. That is my principle and those are my priorities. I am sorry that Government Members do not share them.

That is the second reason why the Opposition are opposing the tax increase on millions of modest-income pensioners. As my hon. Friend the Member for Pontypridd (Owen Smith) so eloquently expressed on Monday, the measure is unfair and unnecessary when the Government are spending £3 billion on a tax give-away for the richest 1%. Hon. Members will remember that, originally, the Government said that the 50p tax cut would be paid for by a mansion tax and a crackdown on tax avoidance. However, the cut costs 10 times as much as is raised by the new measure on stamp duty—the Chief Secretary’s sorry substitute for a mansion tax—and more than three times as much as is raised in the Budget by reductions in tax avoidance. In fact, cutting tax avoidance should be part of every Budget anyway, and the money raised by measures to tackle tax avoidance in this Budget is less than the average reductions in tax avoidance achieved by Labour’s Budgets. In addition, we have since discovered that the Government’s definition of tax avoidance includes donations to UNICEF, Macmillan, the Royal National Lifeboat Institution and other charities that do fantastic work in our communities. That the Government cannot see the difference between tax avoidance and giving money to worthwhile causes again shows how out of touch they are.

Meanwhile, the single biggest revenue raiser in the Budget is the measure before us. More than £3 billion over the next five years will be raised from the pockets of pensioners with modest incomes. Where does it all go to? Does it go towards paying down the deficit? No. Does it help young people to get back to work? No. Does it help poorer pensioners? No—they have been hit too by VAT rises and service cuts. Instead, the money, which is being taken from those with pensions of just a few thousand pounds a year, is being spent on a tax cut for people for whom this tax grab would have counted as mere small change.

The Government were said to have been surprised by the anger that the measure has aroused, but that again goes to show how out of touch they are with the reality faced by most people, and how far they have strayed from the values and priorities of the British people. It goes to the heart of the problems that the Government face and the problem with their conception of fairness, and the callous arrogance with which they have abandoned the pretence that we are all in it together.

Age UK responded to the Government’s measures by stating:

“we feel it is disappointing that the Budget offered a tax break of at least £10,000 to the very wealthy while penalising many pensioners on fairly modest incomes who are already being squeezed”.

The chief executive of Saga said:

“Over the next five years, pensioners with an income of between £10,500 and £24,000 will be paying an extra £3 billion in tax while richer pensioners are left unaffected.”

The National Pensioners Convention, which I met earlier today, stated:

“We have been inundated by pensioners who are disgusted that those on around £11,000 a year will no longer get additional reductions in their tax…whilst those earning £150,000 or more will see their tax bills reduced. This is seen by many as the last straw…Pensioners feel they are being asked to bail out the super rich…and it’s simply not fair.”

Age UK, Saga, and the National Pensioners Convention have hit the nail on the head. It is just a shame that the Chancellor and the Prime Minister are so blinded by the demands of the super-rich that they fail to see it.

Finally, it is worth recognising that the measure is not the only reason why people are so angry. It is not just the blatant unfairness that has offended people, but the way in which the change was announced. Most people believe that our older generation deserve to be treated with respect and dignity, yet this Government and the Chancellor tried to get away with going back on a previous promise by dressing up a tax grab as a “simplification”. Just one year ago, on page 35 of the 2011 Budget Red Book, people were told:

“For the duration of this Parliament…the age related allowance will be over-indexed”

according to

“CPI and will increase by the equivalent of the…RPI”.

What the Chancellor said then was clear and unmistakeable, but that is another broken promise by the Conservatives and their Liberal Democrat friends. The Institute for Fiscal Studies agrees. It says that the Chancellor

“should have avoided dressing up what is clearly a tax increase as merely a simplification”.

In the same letter from Age UK to the Chancellor that I have quoted, it also states:

“We are concerned that you announced the change to age allowances as a way to simplify the tax system and indeed the Budget Report lists the change under…‘Simplification’... rather than under ‘Personal and Property taxes’”.

The Chancellor also attempted to hide behind the Office of Tax Simplification, but its director has told the Treasury that attempts to use its recommendations as a cover for his tax grab are “not 100% accurate”. The relevant report by the Office of Tax Simplification states clearly:

“we would stress…that the Office of Tax Simplification has not reached any conclusions as to the best way forward with age-related allowances, nor have we formulated detailed recommendations”.

It is all too clear why the Chancellor did not bother to wait for the final OTS report: he was not really interested in simplifying taxation for older people. Rather, his single-minded focus and overriding priority was getting his millionaires’ tax break through, and he was willing to fund it by cutting the incomes of pensioners.

In conclusion, we all know what an embarrassment this Budget has become to Government Members. We know how it has shaken their confidence in the strategic genius of the Chancellor and that many of them have heard from constituents who are anxious about the impact that the measure will have and angry about how the Government have treated people who deserve better.

Therefore, today, the Opposition are glad to be giving Government Members an opportunity to make amends and a chance to dissociate themselves with this disreputable raid on the incomes of older people. They have a choice. Do they stand with the millions of people who have worked hard and saved what they can? Or do they stand with the Chancellor and his friend, the Chief Secretary, who see pensioners as a soft touch ripe for a sneaky tax grab? The Opposition know whose side we are on. We are about to find out whose side Government Members are on.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer (Ipswich) (Con)
- Hansard - -

I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) in this important debate. It is important because it touches on perhaps the greatest challenge facing politicians and representatives in this Chamber. She is a luminary of the new Labour party and one of the stars of her intake, and it is always a pleasure to hear her in the Chamber and on the television. No doubt, at some point, she aspires to high office not only in her party but in government. [Interruption.] There is no punch line. The hon. Lady is no joke. It is important to remember that, at some point, Labour will form a Government. I hope it is not too soon, but it is in the nature of our democracy, and a fine thing, that we swap sides now and again.

Lord Harrington of Watford Portrait Richard Harrington
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I was interested to hear my hon. Friend’s comments about Labour’s prospects of forming a Government. I listened to the comments about pensions from the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves). Does he think I will be a pensioner by the time Labour forms another Government?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

My hon. Friend is full of vigour and will be going a long time, so I hope not.

The key challenge facing us is the extraordinary rate of demographic change in this country. Between now and 11 minutes past 3, the average age at which people are expected to die in this country will increase by 15 minutes. As a consequence, by 2041, the amount we spend on old-age pensions will have increased from about £80 billion now to £250 billion, even with the changes introduced by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor and his colleagues. Even with the reforms that the Government have initiated, we will deliver to our successors in this place—including the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury—a formidable challenge, and not only have we not properly faced up to the challenge but we are not talking properly to the public about it.

I can understand why Labour Members have tabled amendments on VAT and other matters—they can make their political points about the balance in the Budget and the Finance Bill with complete justice—but I am seriously disappointed that they have tabled amendments on this issue, because it is the most modest start to trying to deal with what is a really big and fundamental problem for us all.

Mark Field Portrait Mark Field (Cities of London and Westminster) (Con)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

My hon. Friend is making a sensible and thoughtful speech and some important points. The hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) prayed in aid changes made by Sir Winston Churchill 87 years ago. However, the numbers qualifying then for any sort of pension, let alone an age-related one, were minuscule compared with the numbers qualifying today and in decades to come.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

My hon. Friend is entirely right. When Sir Winston Churchill served in Lloyd George’s Cabinet and the Liberals introduced the universal pension—one of that Government’s great achievements—a quarter of people never reached pension age. They never got to the point where they could draw down their pension. We are in a completely different place now.

I am not proposing to the Committee that we start now to think about the wholesale and widespread pension reform that is required, but surely we should start by trying to change some of the anomalies, and this anomaly is such a glaringly obvious one. At the moment, Members on both sides of the House, including those of us who represent constituencies with many low-earners—low-earners with families struggling desperately—are telling our constituents to pay a different rate of tax from pensioners, who, only because of their age, qualify for a different allowance.

Baroness Clark of Kilwinning Portrait Katy Clark
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

If the hon. Gentleman believes that the allowance is such a glaring anomaly, why was there not something about it in his party’s manifesto?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

The hon. Lady asks about the party manifesto. I had hoped to discuss the broader issues and great challenges facing us. Manifestos are, by their nature, broad brush, and this is such a tiny change to the tax system in the grand scheme of what the Treasury has to deal with. It is entirely right that the Government are, bravely, addressing it now. In all honesty, would either party go down to such detail in any future manifesto? It is entirely right that the Government are saying, “This is an anomaly. It is incorrect and unfair, and what is more, it is one of the many anomalies that are unaffordable in the long term.”

Kelvin Hopkins Portrait Kelvin Hopkins
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I hear time and again the Government saying that things are unaffordable and raising spectres of vast pensions bills in the future. This is a simple matter of transferring money from one group of people to another—namely, from the rich to the less rich. Were the abolition of the 83p rate by Mrs Thatcher and Geoffrey Howe and of the 60p rate by Nigel Lawson and getting rid of the 15% surcharge on unearned income all anomalies?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I profoundly respect the hon. Gentleman. He is a torchbearer for a former age in the Labour party, and he should raise that point with his own Front-Bench team. We are clearly not going to agree on it. However, at some point, someone needs to face up to the fact that we will almost double spending on old-age pensions between now and 2040. I shall put that in context: the number of people retiring this year who will be alive in 2041 will be more significant than now. I cannot give the precise figure, but hundreds of thousands of people retiring in the next few years will be alive in 20 or 30 years. We are not only dealing with an intergenerational problem, with a problem between this generation and a generation in two or three generations’ time or with a problem between people in their 20s and those in their 60s or 70s; we are dealing with a problem of those retiring now and to whom we must promise pensions and a decent standard of living in 30 years’ time. The ability to afford that is at the crux of the Government’s reforms, and this proposal is just the start of it.

Graeme Morrice Portrait Graeme Morrice (Livingston) (Lab)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

My hon. Friend the Member for North Ayrshire and Arran (Katy Clark) asked why, if this was such a wonderful proposal, it was not in the Conservative party’s manifesto. My question is this: if this is such a wonderful proposal, why was it the only one not leaked before the Chancellor’s statement?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

The hon. Gentleman knows that that is not the case. [Interruption.] Well, it isn’t. I was endeavouring to have a wider debate about the importance of the reform in the context of the massive pensions challenge and of trying to pay for the pensions of vulnerable people not just this year but in 10 and 15 years.

Nadhim Zahawi Portrait Nadhim Zahawi
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I take my hon. Friend back to Labour’s chances of forming a Government. Does he agree that that requires credibility, and that credibility is built on taking debates such as this one as seriously as he is taking them and addressing these important issues, rather than just jumping on bandwagons, being opportunistic and misleading the nation at the precise time when the nation requires real leadership?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention and for his compliment, because I, too, could be critical of the Government in one respect—[Hon. Members: “ Ah!”] It is not a criticism of the policy. None of us in this place has yet started to be completely straight with people about the enormous scale of the challenge that faces us.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I will give way to the hon. Lady and then make some progress.

Sheila Gilmore Portrait Sheila Gilmore
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

The hon. Gentleman’s discussion about the issue of old people is interesting, but is it not the purpose of this provision not to provide greater pensions—or, perhaps, better social care—but to balance the cut to the 50% tax rate?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I wish we could deal with this canard. I did not want to be political about this—[Interruption.] No, I tell the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie) that I did not. Five times more revenue is being taken from the wealthiest people in this country as a result of the Budget than from reducing the top rate of tax. That argument has been dealt with and, although it is pity, I suspect that that is why the hon. Member for Leeds West, who is a serious-minded and intellectual member of the Opposition Front-Bench team, realises that the only way she can make an argument about this issue is by trying to shackle it to a false argument about the top rate of tax, to which it has no relation whatever. This is about beginning to reform provision for people who are retiring in our country. If we do not begin to make these small changes, we will not even be in a position to make the changes that will be necessary in future.

Mark Field Portrait Mark Field
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Will my hon. Friend give way?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I will give way once more.

Mark Field Portrait Mark Field
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

My hon. Friend was absolutely right when he said earlier that we have collectively been living well beyond our means. That over-consumption by today’s Britons, including today’s pensioners, will have to be paid for by generations to come, and that cannot be justifiable. Given the interventions on him from the Opposition, does he agree that we made it clear before the election in our manifesto that we would maintain intact all the universal benefits—in particular, TV licences, the winter fuel costs and a lot of the travel allowances, along with a significant number of other pension-related benefits—that we have been true to our word and that we will remain so for the rest of this Parliament?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

My hon. Friend represents a seat with a huge personal vote. I was not lucky enough to take over from a Conservative Member of Parliament with a huge personal vote such as his. I was therefore targeted in the last few weeks of the campaign by the Labour party and its union friends, who issued a series of postcards claiming that we would abolish the winter fuel allowance, free TV licences and all those other things. It is a matter of great pride to me that even in coalition, when compromises must be made, those promises, made by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister, were kept.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

If the hon. Gentleman will allow me, I would like—

Anna Soubry Portrait Anna Soubry (Broxtowe) (Con)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Will my hon. Friend give way?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I am so deeply tempted by my hon. Friend that I will give way to her.

Anna Soubry Portrait Anna Soubry
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I am sorry that I had to leave the Chamber for a short period, but I am extremely grateful to my hon. Friend, who is making an important and thoughtful speech. However, I am sure that, like me, he will have received e-mails and letters from pensioners in his constituency who are worried that their real incomes are in some way being cut by this Government. What would he say, not only to the pensioners in his constituency, but to those in mine—and no doubt in many other constituencies—who are worried about their futures?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

My hon. Friend is right in two senses. Everyone is concerned about their standard of living. That is the nature of recovering from this terrible recession, which has many causes. As a Government, we are in the position of having to make very difficult decisions. Again, it is a point of great pride to me that we are being brave enough to make those decisions and to spread the load throughout the entire taxpayer base. It is a matter of extraordinary difficulty, but the group that has been hit least so far by the savings, efficiencies and cuts that the Government have had to make has been pensioners, because they have benefited from the triple lock and a whole series of other interventions by the Government, and because they are not recipients of other benefits. As a result, this measure is probably the most modest incursion into pensioner income.

Baroness Clark of Kilwinning Portrait Katy Clark
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

I will, but before I do, let me say in response to that intervention that there are many pensioners in my constituency who are on very low incomes. They are suffering considerably at the moment. Most of them do not have incomes anywhere close to the current allowance. What we are trying to do—in improving their lot through the triple lock guarantee, as well as protecting the pension credit, the winter fuel payments, the cold weather payments and the free TV licences—is protect the benefits of those who are least able to look after themselves.

My hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry) is right in another sense. It is not just today’s vulnerable pensioners whom we must look after and seek to help, but the vulnerable pensioners in 20 and 30 years’ time. If we do not make changes now and try to protect the state’s income to some degree, we will not be in a position even to afford the benefits and pensions that we promise people now, let alone to anything like that degree in 20 or 30 years’ time, and that will be a problem for both parties.

Eilidh Whiteford Portrait Dr Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan) (SNP)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Obviously the proposals that we are talking about today do not apply to the very poorest pensioners or the better-off pensioners. However, let me ask the hon. Gentleman a simple question: what incentive will there be for people to save for their retirement?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

The hon. Lady is entirely right. One of the terrifying things that comes out of all public opinion surveys is the lack of savings and even the lack of people expecting to save for their old age. I hope that the reforms brought in by the Minister responsible for pensions—the Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions, my hon. Friend the Member for Thornbury and Yate (Steve Webb)—for auto-enrolment and encouraging savings will be the beginning of a fully funded pensions system.

However, that is for another debate. I am aware of the strictures regarding Committee time and the fact that other Members wish to speak. I would therefore like to make one final comment. Lord Turner’s 2005 report, which was commissioned by the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), said that

“unless new government initiatives can make a major difference to behaviour, the present voluntary system of pension savings, combined with the present state system, is unlikely to deliver adequate pension provision.”

Moreover, he went on to say that the only means of achieving that would be through cross-party consensus. If we are to be serious about providing decent pensions, not only to people today, but to people in five, 10 and 15 years’ time—that includes people retiring this year and next year, who will be in their 80s and 90s when we will really be starting to pick up the bill—all parties must, between us, come to some sort of consensus about the difficult decisions that need to be made.

Mark Durkan Portrait Mark Durkan (Foyle) (SDLP)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

In that context, does the hon. Gentleman agree that if we are to encourage confidence among people out there that they can commit to planning and saving for their pensions, no Government should ever engage in an easy drive-by hit on pensioners?

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

The hon. Gentleman would be right, were the changes in the Bill modest to that degree. They represent a freeze for those who are already receiving the allowance, which will be merged into the basic rate allowance which will then move up towards it. In that regard, the taper could not be more gentle.

It is entirely right to say that the Government need to sketch out a very long-term plan for pensions, and I know that the Pensions Minister is beginning that process, but it will need the support, input and intellectual vigour of Members such as the hon. Member for Leeds West if it is to be a success in the long term. Otherwise, we and our successors will be unable to pay the bill, and pensioners will be freezing and starving as a result. The bill will be unaffordable and we will be fighting to pay it against a global economy in which we are unable to compete. That is a terrifying prospect, and I hope that we can begin to deal with it now by supporting the Government in what I hope is the first of many of the changes that need to be made in order to protect the living standards, the decency and the dignity of those people who have worked hard all the way through their lives.

None Portrait Several hon. Members
- Hansard -

rose

--- Later in debate ---
Alison McGovern Portrait Alison McGovern
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I shall make a few remarks about an important impact of the changes, which is at risk of going unrecognised. I think of that as the cluster impact of the changes. Our country does not have the same kind of people distributed uniformly across the United Kingdom. People of different ages cluster in different areas.

I am deeply proud to represent the Wirral, not least because the area has a higher proportion of older people. It is a great strength of our area. They bring a large amount of expertise and stability, and we should not talk about people living longer as though it was a negative thing. I benefited from having grandparents who lived longer than they might have expected, and I cherished each of those relationships.

With that clustering of older people comes a responsibility to pay attention to the issues that affect them. Even if that was not the right thing to do in and of itself, our local economy in Wirral is highly dependent on the income of pensioners. We have many small independent businesses whose relationship with their customers is important. They have regulars of many years’ standing, and many of those people are retired and on a fixed income, so even if it was not the case that we should care about the needs of older people, the employment of the rest of us in the Wirral and the vitality of some of the local shops is related to the income of older people.

Before I deal with the clustering of the local economy and the attention that Ministers must pay to how our economy works in practice, I want to make a few points about longevity and the increase in life expectancy that we are seeing. We must recognise that this is not a uniform phenomenon. Not everybody in our country is living longer in the same way. There is a social justice element. Poverty is still a pretty strong determinant of the length of people’s life. People such as those in my constituency who have worked in manufacturing might not expect to live as long as those in relatively more affluent parts of the country. My constituency is very mixed, and there are people there who may not be able to expect to live longer as the average increases. That average masks different expectations.

When Treasury Ministers make decisions about, for example, age-related allowances, I ask them to find out how those will impact on different parts of the country and different groups of people. The impact will not be uniform. We are not all uniformly living longer in exactly the same way. The NHS is a wonderful thing, but we still have a heck of a long way to go on public health to make sure that poverty does not limit people’s life expectancy, as it has done in the past and still does.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

The hon. Lady makes a sensible point. One of the big challenges that faces us in increasing the state pension age and the point at which people retire is trying to understand the different requirements of people who have done heavy manual labour throughout their life or for any part of their life and have had different physical pressures put upon them, and those who have not. But that does not remove the point that most people who are affected by the tax allowance freeze are relatively wealthy pensioners—most of them. Therefore, although this is not a precise instrument, I am not sure that her point addresses exactly what the Minister seeks to do.

Alison McGovern Portrait Alison McGovern
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I shall return to my constituents and tell them that a moment of cross-party agreement broke out over the problem that the hon. Gentleman and I agree exists, where we must rightly consider the state pension age, but that that decision will affect certain people in a completely different way from that suggested by any average figure. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will allow me to respond to his second point by saying that I will remark later on whom the proposals affect and their relative position.

Before making my substantive point about how the economy clusters and how these proposals will affect us, I want to answer the point about inflation made by the hon. Member for Stourbridge (Margot James), who has unfortunately just left the Chamber. She sought to make a case against my hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), saying that the Government were doing pensioners a great service by increasing their pension on inflation, which has come about because of events beyond our shores, and the Government are just trying to respond to the oil price, and so on. I have no doubt that world events have had an impact on inflation in this country. Thankfully, I do not have to work out which events have an impact on inflation and report that to the Chancellor. That is the job of the Governor of the Bank of England. I have read the Governor’s letters on inflation and he remarks on the impact of the Government’s VAT rise on inflation. If the hon. Lady were here, I would tell her that it is not entirely true to say that the inflation that we face that has caused the Government to be so proud of their cost of living rise for pensioners is entirely beyond our control. It is in part at least down to the Government’s action.

I want now to think about the cumulative impact of this policy and a couple of others on the part of the world that I represent, but also on similar local economies. Some of the Government’s decisions have resulted in a kind of conflagration that means that particular localities face a really difficult economic future.

--- Later in debate ---
Alison McGovern Portrait Alison McGovern
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Is the hon. Lady therefore saying that the proportion is not 40%? She indicates that she does not know—that is fine.

Ben Gummer Portrait Ben Gummer
- Hansard - -

Whatever the proportion of pensioners affected, whether it is 10%, 20%, 30% or 40%, does the hon. Lady think it is right that they currently get a different tax rate from low-earning families who are struggling hard but for some reason seem to be discriminated against just because they are not over 65?

Alison McGovern Portrait Alison McGovern
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

The hon. Gentleman, too, is welcome to intervene on me again and say what he thinks the proportion is if he thinks the BBC is wrong. He said it might be 10% or 20%. No? Okay.