Leaving the EU: Sectoral Impact Assessments

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Tuesday 28th November 2017

(6 years, 5 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts

Urgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.

Each Urgent Question requires a Government Minister to give a response on the debate topic.

This information is provided by Parallel Parliament and does not comprise part of the offical record

Robin Walker Portrait Mr Walker
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

My right hon. Friend makes an interesting suggestion. I would say that the proceedings of this House—certainly as they are reported by the press—are sometimes of great interest to our continental colleagues, but I do take his point.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

The Department has handed over some 850 pages, but the Minister has made it clear that some information has been withheld. If that additional material had also been handed over, how many pages would that have been? Would it be another couple of hundred, more or less, or has the information not actually been compiled?

Robin Walker Portrait Mr Walker
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

The right hon. Gentleman asks a hypothetical question to which I am afraid that I do not have an answer.

EU Exit Negotiations

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Monday 13th November 2017

(6 years, 5 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Yes, of course that is what we are aiming to do. One point that has become very clear in the negotiations is that matters such as the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland are soluble once we get on to the next stage, but really cannot be advanced as we stand. For many reasons, both economic and political, we want to make that advance as soon as possible.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

May I ask the Secretary of State about arrangements during the implementation period of two years or so after March 2019? The Prime Minister has already told us that the writ of the European Court of Justice will continue to run. The Secretary of State told the Select Committee that he hoped that, subject to a positive Council conclusion in December, the arrangements for the implementation period would be agreed by March 2018. Michel Barnier said the same to the Select Committee last week. Does that not put huge pressure on everybody involved to achieve a successful outcome to the December Council?

European Economic Area: UK Membership

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Monday 6th November 2017

(6 years, 6 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Stephen Kinnock Portrait Stephen Kinnock
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I will take one more intervention from my right hon. Friend, but I will take an intervention from the hon. Member for Bromley and Chislehurst (Robert Neill) later.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

Has my hon. Friend seen the recent forecast that a WTO-based Brexit would cost the UK economy 75,000 jobs in the financial services sector alone? Is he not absolutely right to talk about the grave dangers that that would pose to the British economy?

Stephen Kinnock Portrait Stephen Kinnock
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I agree that the financial services sector is critical to this debate, because passporting is required. There would be no passporting arrangements in a WTO deal, so the impact would be catastrophic. We must remember that the financial services sector is not just about the City of London; it supports 1 million jobs across the entire United Kingdom—in Edinburgh, Leeds and so on.

--- Later in debate ---
Stephen Kinnock Portrait Stephen Kinnock
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I think my hon. Friend’s point touches on what sort of reforms to the free movement of labour we think we need. Opinion is divided. In terms of the upstream reform, the argument is in favour of a quota-based system; downstream reform would be based on registration, but perhaps that is for another debate. My point is that EEA membership enables a lot more flexibility over both an emergency brake and the use of industry-by-industry quotas.

I turn now to the vexed question of ECJ jurisdiction. Here the position is relatively simple, as EEA-EFTA members are not subject to ECJ jurisdiction. The EEA is administered by the EFTA arbitration court and the EEA joint committee, and disputes are managed by the EFTA surveillance authority. These bodies adjudicate only on matters relating to the EEA internal market and any violations of its principles and have far less clout than the ECJ. Moreover, while EU member states’ courts must refer legal issues to the ECJ, EEA states are not obliged to refer them to the EFTA court.

The EEA model is sometimes criticised because EEA members are cast as rule-takers as opposed to rule-makers, but that criticism does not stand up to scrutiny. EEA members have the right to participate in the drawing up of EU legislation by the EU Commission, and the EEA joint committee determines which EU laws and directives are deemed relevant for the EEA and whether any adaptation is necessary, so EEA membership would in fact provide the UK with a seat at the table when EU regulations and directives are being shaped.

Clearly EEA membership is one step removed from the heart of decision making in Brussels, but the reality of the referendum result is that our influence in Brussels and across the European capitals has, and will inevitably be, diminished. The only valid question now is how to maximise democratic control and influence while minimising economic damage. I contend that an EEA-EFTA-based transition deal would clearly achieve those ends. The stakes are high.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

I am listening with great interest to my hon. Friend’s argument. Will he confirm whether I have understood him correctly? Would the way forward he is advocating require the UK to rejoin EFTA? Is that his proposition?

Stephen Kinnock Portrait Stephen Kinnock
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

There are a variety of views on this. Carl Baudenbacher, the head of the EFTA arbitration court, has said that he would favour a docking system and an interim arrangement that puts British judges on the EFTA arbitration court in preparation for finalising a deal—in a sense, a bridging into EFTA. I would advocate joining EFTA as part of moving into the EEA.

--- Later in debate ---
Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

The hon. Member for Gainsborough (Sir Edward Leigh) has been courteous and thoughtful, but I just remind him that he won his seat in 2015 on the basis of a commitment to keep the benefits of the single market for the UK.

I warmly welcome this debate, and I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Aberavon (Stephen Kinnock) on the motion he has proposed. A German Foreign Office official told me earlier this year, “If you want the benefits of the single market, you have to obey the rules of the single market.” Ever since the referendum, Ministers have been telling us that we will have the benefits of the single market but that we will no longer have to obey the rules. Unfortunately, that will not be the outcome of these negotiations. If, by some extraordinary fluke, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union was able to persuade Michel Barnier to agree to such an outcome, it would immediately be voted down by other European Parliaments—certainly by the Bundestag—and by the European Parliament as well.

I think that that recognition is starting to dawn on Ministers. At the start of this process, they told us we would get barrier-free access to the single market, but I notice they do not use that phrase any longer; they now say we will have access with a minimum of friction—whatever that turns out to be. We are not, sadly, going to get the barrier-free access they said at the start that we would get, but we need barrier-free access. If we are to leave the European Union, we need to find a way, in conformity with the rules, to maintain the economic benefits—the very large economic benefits—for the UK of our membership of the single market, so my hon. Friend is on to something extremely important.

Membership of the European economic area comprises an EU pillar and an EFTA pillar. With the UK exiting the European Union, membership of EFTA is, as we have heard from the hon. Members for Carlisle (John Stevenson) and for South Suffolk (James Cartlidge) and from my hon. Friend, certainly something we should consider, and it may well prove to be the right way forward. However, there are some disadvantages to EFTA membership, and my hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South (Mike Gapes) touched on them. In particular, because EFTA countries are not in the customs union, the grave problem at the land border with the Republic of Ireland would not be resolved by joining EFTA. The Government are telling us two things about that: first, that we will not be in the customs union; and secondly, that there will be no infrastructure at that border. Sadly, those two assertions are contradictory; they will not both be true, and one of them will have to not be true. We have a serious problem at that border, and joining EFTA would not deal with it.

I was interested by a proposal made in a paper presented recently to the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise by Sebastian Remøy, who used to be an official in the EEA co-ordination unit in the EFTA Secretariat, suggesting that, alongside the EU pillar and the EFTA pillar in the EEA, there should be a third pillar—a UK pillar—which would allow greater flexibility and overcome the disadvantage of EFTA membership. It might also deal with some of the difficulties that Norway might raise about the UK joining EFTA and unbalancing the current structure and modestly sized secretariat. I just put that idea on the record—I do not know whether it is the right one, but it needs to be looked at, alongside membership of EFTA, as a way forward.

In the referendum, leave campaigners dismissed serious concerns about the economic consequences by describing them as “Project Fear”, but as we have heard in the debate, those fears are starting to be realised. The letter from business organisations said they needed certainty about the transition by the end of this calendar year, but they are not going to get that.

Wera Hobhouse Portrait Wera Hobhouse
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that it is time we dropped the term “Project Fear” and replaced it with the term “Project Reality”?

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

We certainly need some hard-headed economic realism as we face the decisions ahead—the hon. Lady is absolutely right.

We are not going to get certainty by the end of the year. The Secretary of State said to the Select Committee that we would have details of the transition by the end of March 2018 and that he hoped that for the sake of three months businesses would hold off implementing their back-up plans until then. But for much of the financial services sector, an announcement of plans by politicians in the absence of legal certainty is completely useless. They have to—the regulator requires them to—put in place their back-up plans if there is no legal certainty about the transition by the end of March next year. We are going to start to lose significant numbers of jobs. I mentioned the figure of 75,000 that is an estimate of the number of jobs that the financial services sector will lose from a hard Brexit. It looks as though—I have seen an estimate—15,000 of those will go if we do not have legal certainty about the transition by the end of March next year. That will impose a grievous economic blow upon us. My hon. Friend the Member for Aberavon is making an extremely important case that the House needs to heed.

Oral Answers to Questions

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Thursday 2nd November 2017

(6 years, 6 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

The last time I used the phrase “Get thee behind me, Satan” in answer to a question about Guy Verhofstadt, he thought that I was calling him Satan, so I will stay off that one. Of course the European Parliament is very enthused about the institutions of the European Union, but when it comes to this vote, the deal that we have agreed with the European Union will be clear, and MEPs will have to reflect on their responsibilities to their constituents in their own countries. What he and I have always agreed is that the best outcome for everybody is a free trade arrangement that will help not just us but Holland, France, Germany and all the other 27 member states.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

The Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, the hon. Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker), told the Select Committee that the deal would cover permission to communicate personal data between the UK and the EU, so if there is no deal, there will no longer be a lawful basis for the large part of the British economy that depends on European data communications. Should we not therefore take steps now to secure a data adequacy declaration from the European Commission and, in the light of that, may I commend to the Secretary of State amendment 151 to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, which I tabled?

David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

It is always nice to get another preview of our upcoming consideration of the Bill.

When I was talking to the relevant Commons and Lords Select Committees in the past week or so, I made it plain that a so-called no deal is not probable; a deal is by far and away the most probable thing for our country’s future. However, even no deal is not likely to mean a complete blank slate, and I have talked about what is called a basic deal. In any event, I would expect there to be a deal for data, aviation, nuclear trade and a whole series of other areas where there are massive amounts to lose on both sides. In our contingency planning exercises, we are looking at all options, including the one that the right hon. Gentleman outlines, and we will have plans for that, too.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Thursday 7th September 2017

(6 years, 8 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I will give way to both right hon. Gentlemen in a few minutes.

Following this, it will be for United Kingdom legislators to pass laws, and for the United Kingdom courts to adjudicate those laws.

The Bill enables us to leave the European Union in the smoothest and most orderly way possible. It is the most significant piece of legislation to be considered by this House for some time, and it will rightly be scrutinised clause by clause, line by line on the Floor of the House.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

rose—

David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I will give way in a moment.

I stand ready to listen to those who offer improvements to the Bill in the spirit of preparing our statute book for withdrawal from the European Union.

The right hon. and learned Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer) likes to remind me of my past incarnation as a Back Benchers’ champion and my dedication to holding the Government to account. I have not changed my views one jot. Let me be clear: this Bill does only what is necessary for a smooth exit and to provide stability. However, as I have repeatedly said, I welcome and encourage contributions from those who approach the task in good faith and in a spirit of collaboration. All of us, as legislators, have a shared interest in making the Bill a success and in the national interest.

--- Later in debate ---
David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Again, I will go into that in some detail. There is one exception to this, but the primary aim behind the Bill is to maintain policy as it is now. The only exception to that is under the withdrawal arrangements, and that will be time-determined and limited. I will detail that in a second.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

George Osborne, in his headline in the Evening Standard last night, referred to the Secretary of State’s approach as “rule by decree”. Why is the Secretary of State taking this high-handed approach to the practices of this Parliament?

David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I have to tell the right hon. Gentleman that I do not read the Evening Standard—it sounds like with good reason. I have to tell him that if I am going to take lectures on rule by decree, it will not be from the editor of the Evening Standard.

--- Later in debate ---
Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

I agree with a number of the points that the right hon. Member for Newbury (Richard Benyon) has just made. George Osborne was right in his headline in the Evening Standard yesterday to describe the effect of the Bill as “rule by decree”. That headline was prompted by an article written by the right hon. and learned Member for Beaconsfield (Mr Grieve), and I pay tribute to him for his article and his interventions in this debate. I agree, in particular, that this is

“an astonishing monstrosity of a Bill.”

Unlike him, however, I do not intend to vote in favour of it.

The right hon. and learned Gentleman is right to raise concerns about the explicit intention in the Bill not to put into our law the charter of fundamental rights. My right hon. Friend the Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper) was right to tackle that earlier. Ministers have told us that they do not intend the Bill to dilute employment rights, environmental protections or other things that we have, but there is no assurance at all in the Bill that those dilutions will not go ahead. We need much more reassurance than we have been given.

I want to raise with the House a very practical example of a problem with not putting the charter of fundamental rights into UK law. Article 8 deals with the protection of personal data. It says:

“Everyone has the right to the protection of personal data concerning him or her… Such data must be processed fairly for specified purposes and on the basis of the consent of the person concerned or some other legitimate basis laid down by law.”

That article underpins data protection law, and it underpins the legal frameworks permitting the free flow of data across European borders. It is absolutely essential that the Government secure an adequacy agreement from the Commission, confirming that data protection in the UK is adequate from a European standpoint, so that UK businesses can continue to exchange personal data with EU countries.

If Ministers do not achieve such an agreement, they will have removed the basis for the lawful operation of countless British businesses. TechUK has pointed out the extent of UK leadership in this field: 11% of global data flows pass through the UK and 75% of that traffic is with the EU. But Ministers will not get an adequacy agreement if this commitment is not contained in UK law. We need article 8, or an equivalent affirmation of the same principles. I see no justification whatever for not taking that article or, indeed, the rest of the charter into UK law.

It is a real mystery to me why Conservative Ministers have become so impervious to the basic needs of British businesses in their handling of Brexit. My right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer) was absolutely right to point out in his response to the Secretary of State at the start of the debate that we have to stay in the single market and customs union for at least the duration of the transition phase. On taking office, the Secretary of State told us that his negotiation would secure “barrier-free access” for UK businesses and consumers to the EU single market. He does not say that any more.

The Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, the hon. Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker), who is in his place on the Front Bench, said at Brexit questions earlier today that we will have the “minimum of frictions” in our trade with the European Union. The reality is that we need barrier-free access. We need access to the single market for UK businesses and consumers that does not involve tariffs or non-tariff barriers, and the only way that we will get that before the conclusion of the negotiations is if we stay in the single market and in the customs union. I very much regret that Ministers have rejected that idea—the Secretary of State told us that they did think about it—and I think that that is one of the reasons why we need to reject the Bill.

Oral Answers to Questions

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Thursday 7th September 2017

(6 years, 8 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

Does it remain Ministers’ ambition to secure barrier-free access for the UK to the European single market, and is not the only way to enjoy the benefits of the single market to comply with the rules of the single market?

Steve Baker Portrait Mr Baker
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

We recognise that the freedoms of the single market are indivisible and that the people of this country wish for Parliament to set its own laws and for a UK migration policy that meets with their democratic consent. It is the ambition of Ministers to secure trade with the absolute minimum of frictions, and I hope and look forward to doing so.

Oral Answers to Questions

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Thursday 9th March 2017

(7 years, 2 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
John Bercow Portrait Mr Speaker
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I will take the two colleagues who have not spoken to date, if they are extremely brief.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

From my recent discussions with senior Members of the German Parliament, it is very clear that we are not going to get barrier-free access to the single market if we no longer operate free movement. Do Ministers yet recognise that reality?

David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

That is not the response I am getting from the Ministers I have spoken to around Europe. What they have come back with is that they want a constructive outcome, and the only way to get a constructive outcome is to have a comprehensive free trade arrangement.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Tuesday 31st January 2017

(7 years, 3 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
James Morris Portrait James Morris (Halesowen and Rowley Regis) (Con)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens), who spoke with great passion; I do not agree with her, but she is clearly wrestling with many issues.

This is a hugely significant moment for the west midlands region, part of which I represent, and for this House. It seems quite a long time ago that I was one of the 81 Conservatives who went into the Lobby to vote in favour of a referendum in 2011, and it also seems quite a long time ago that I was sitting behind the Front Bench in my role as Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Minister for Europe as the European Union Referendum Bill was steered through Parliament. During its passage I had to spend many long hours in this Chamber wearing my tin hat, as it were. So I am a passionate believer in the referendum and I recognise the importance of the result.

I had concerns about the economic consequences of our leaving the European Union, but the reality was that the west midlands region was one of the strongest regions in the country in terms of voting to leave. I think every single area of the west midlands voted for us to leave the European Union. As a democrat, and as someone who fought for the referendum, I clearly have to respect that result. We in the Black country and the west midlands are very pragmatic people. The west midlands economy has been performing extremely well over the past few years, and it is now incumbent on me and other leaders in the region to take advantage of the opportunities that leaving the European Union will present to our economy.

I hope that we will trigger article 50 when we vote tomorrow, and I want to mention certain factors that need to be taken into consideration in the negotiations. As I have said, the west midlands economy has been performing very well. It is currently one of the export powerhouses of the UK economy, with strong exporting not only to the European Union but to the United States and China. However, there are certain countries to which we do not export so strongly. They include Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia, where the west midlands has negligible export volumes. When we are looking at making free trade deals around the world, there will be an opportunity to facilitate further export potential for west midlands manufacturers in the transport sector, for example.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

Does the hon. Gentleman recognise, however, that if we do not get a deal—the Prime Minister has said that that is a possibility —we could end up with a 10% tariff on cars being exported from the UK? That would be very damaging to the west midlands car industry.

James Morris Portrait James Morris
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I do not believe for a minute that we will not get a deal that will be of benefit to UK-based car manufacturers. It is inconceivable that we would be unable to get such a deal.

Leaving the European Union will give us an opportunity to achieve something that has eluded Governments over the past 25 to 30 years—namely, an opportunity to rebalance our economy and lock in the benefits of regional devolution. The west midlands has benefited from European grants for infrastructure development, and as we enter into the negotiation process, it will be incumbent on us to raise the investment levels for infrastructure and skills in the west midlands. For example, the west midlands currently receives 40% less investment in transport than London and Scotland. The region is dependent on manufacturing and transportation, and that discrepancy has resulted in capacity constraints in the west midlands economy that need to be addressed.

One of the principal reasons that people in the Black country and the west midlands voted to leave the European Union was that they wanted to control immigration. As we trigger article 50 and think about negotiating our exit, one of the most important factors will be for the Government to commit to raising the skill levels in the west midlands in order to create high-quality jobs, and to see the west midlands as a critical component of our national story. The west midlands needs to have a voice in the negotiations. In May this year, we will have a directly elected mayor for the West Midlands Combined Authority, and I hope that it will be Andy Street, the excellent Conservative candidate. As the region that voted the most decisively to leave, the west midlands must be at the head of the queue for getting the benefits that I believe can accrue from our leaving the European Union.

I also want to make a broader point about Britain’s place in the world. Even though I have concerns about the European Union and voted for Britain to remain in it, I have never been a fan of its political structures. We are now on the cusp of an opportunity. For 40 years, we have spent a lot of diplomatic resource and energy on managing our relationships across the EU. We now need to change our posture in the world, to be much more outward looking and to use our diplomatic reach and resources to change how we influence the world. We have enormous soft power to deploy in the world, and we should invest more in our hard power. That combination of diplomatic reach, soft power resources and the ability to deploy hard power gives a Britain outside the EU the unique opportunity to stop expending energy on it and its predilections and to focus outwards. As we embark on the renegotiation, there is a real opportunity to challenge many of the assumptions that have driven British foreign policy over the past 40 years and to forge a new role as a global, outward-looking Britain that works for all the regions of the United Kingdom.

--- Later in debate ---
Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

I am pleased to be following the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Mr Rees-Mogg), who set out an erudite constitutional perspective for our edification. Of course, there are wholly honourable reasons for wanting to leave the European Union. The problem, however, is that we will pay a heavy economic price for leaving. Too many jobs will be forced out of the UK, and for that reason I shall oppose the Bill at the vote on Second Reading tomorrow.

Michael Gove Portrait Michael Gove
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

The right hon. Gentleman’s prediction that jobs will be lost follows the prediction made by so many that staying outside the single currency would lead to economic decline, and indeed that the vote on 23 June would trigger an instant recession. Those predictions were wrong then; with respect to his integrity, why should we believe these predictions now?

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

It is absolutely clear that there will be a heavy economic price. Within a couple of years, that will be absolutely clear. My view is that if we in this House believe that a measure is contrary to the national interest, we should vote against it. We have heard a couple of speeches from Conservative Members who have said in terms that they think that the Bill is contrary to the national interest. If that is the view of Members of this House, we should vote against the Bill.

Lyn Brown Portrait Lyn Brown (West Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

I thank my right hon. Friend for his opening words. I believe that the Bill will make our constituents poorer, and that is why I will join him tomorrow in the Lobby. Is it not a pity that part of the debate was basically to ignore what experts were saying about the destination of our country should we leave the European Union?

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I think we should pay attention to those who know what they are talking about. The reality is that our currency has fallen significantly in value following the referendum, and that means that we are poorer than we were before. But the real damage will be done when jobs start to be forced out of Britain, as they will be over the next few years.

I know that some people argue that the loss of jobs in Britain will be a price worth paying in the short term for a better long-term future. I do not agree with that view. The fact is that we will always be dependent on close partnerships with other countries. I cannot share the view that we would be better off replacing annoying interference from Brussels with annoying interference from Washington, but that appears to be what some people believe we should head towards.

John Redwood Portrait John Redwood
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms
- Hansard - -

I am afraid that I cannot give way again.

In any case, we must not dismiss short-term job losses during the next few years as unimportant. The Prime Minister rightly aims for barrier-free access to the single market. The problem is that without signing up to at least some version of free movement she stands no chance whatever of getting barrier-free access to the single market.

In this House, we need to be frank with people about our prospects during the next few years. For example, many of my constituencies and those of my hon. Friend the Member for West Ham (Lyn Brown) work in the financial sector in the City of London, and one study suggests that 70,000 jobs will be lost in that one sector alone. There will be such a scale of damage in other parts of the economy as well. In my view, that is much too high a price to pay.

I agree with those who say that the various forms of so-called soft Brexit would not solve the problem. We would then end up having to apply all the rules that are devised in the EU without having any influence at all over what the rules are. That is not a viable position for the UK in the future.

The one glimmer of a Brexit without the economic damage I am concerned about would be if we signed up not to the current version of the free movement of people, but to a form of free movement of labour in which EU citizens could come to the UK if they had a firm job offer in the UK. As I understand it, that is how things worked in the Common Market in the past. If we agreed to something along those lines, I believe that it would buy us a good proportion of the barrier-free access to the single market that the Prime Minister says she wants. However, she seems to have set her face against such a concession on the immigration policy that is needed, and we will therefore pay the price.

I must say that it is very strange that our future economic wellbeing is being relegated to the importance of focusing on reducing net migration to the tens of thousands. The Prime Minister was Home Secretary for six years. In that time, non-EU net migration, which was completely under our control, was nowhere near the tens of thousands—last year, it was 150,000—and of course all EU net migration comes on top of that. The only way the target of bringing down net migration to the tens of thousands could be delivered would be at an extraordinary economic cost to the UK. I do not believe that any Government would be willing to sign up to that.

How have we got ourselves into such a mess? I think the problem was hard-wired in once David Cameron removed his MEPs from the main centre-right bloc in the European Parliament. From that moment on, British influence in the EU diminished. It was increasingly clear that, unlike under Conservative and Labour Governments in the past, the Conservative coalition Government in the UK were unable to get their way in debates in the EU because their influence was so diminished.

An example that I am particularly aggrieved about was the failure of our Government to protect the viability of cane sugar refining in the EU, as practised at the Tate & Lyle sugar refinery in my constituency. Previous Governments—Labour and Conservative—were able to secure the future of cane sugar refining. This Government, tragically, have failed. The failure of the British Government to achieve their objectives in negotiations in the EU is a reflection of the loss of UK influence. The most spectacular failure of all was, of course, David Cameron’s failure to secure a meaningful renegotiation in his last efforts as Prime Minister.

My conclusion is that what we actually need is a much more engaged British Government who are able to win arguments in Brussels, as previous British Governments were able to do. The failure of David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation highlights spectacularly just how big a problem has developed, but we should not now be pulling out all together and I will be opposing the Second Reading of the Bill tomorrow night.

Oral Answers to Questions

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Thursday 26th January 2017

(7 years, 3 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
David Jones Portrait Mr David Jones
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Yes, we would be delighted to receive it.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported today that car production is at a high, but that investment in car manufacturing is falling because of uncertainty over Brexit. How long will the current uncertainty undermine investment in the British economy?

New Partnership with the EU

Stephen Timms Excerpts
Tuesday 17th January 2017

(7 years, 3 months ago)

Commons Chamber
Read Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

Very simply, the answer is yes. We are a large market for European agriculture and food production, but they are a large market for us too, and we will keep that in mind.

Stephen Timms Portrait Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
- Hansard - -

On rethinking immigration policy, will Ministers consider allowing EU citizens to come to the UK if they have a firm job offer in the UK as part of the quid pro quo for barrier-free access to the single market, which the Secretary of State said is his goal?

David Davis Portrait Mr Davis
- Hansard - - - Excerpts

If I remember correctly from the Prime Minister’s speech, she made the point that this is not at all a policy to shut out Europeans; it is a policy to deliver the best interests of the United Kingdom and the best interests of the European Union. We will therefore keep that in mind.