Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, what estimate her Department has made of the number of households in receipt of Personal Independence Payment who will lose access to their entitlement under the proposals set out in the Pathways to Work green paper in Dulwich and West Norwood constituency.

Information on the impacts of the Pathways to Work Green Paper has been published here ‘Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working Green Paper’(opens in a new tab).

Estimates of the impact of the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) reforms are made for England and Wales only and not on region or any lower-level geographic area. The department does not forecast benefit receipt at a regional level or below, nor have estimates of the behavioural impacts of the policy been produced at these levels.

Personal Independence Payment (PIP) is an individual-based benefit and therefore DWP does not hold household-level information on its administrative systems. The number of people currently on PIP who did not score 4 points in one category in their last assessment is published for Dulwich and West Norwood in the document referenced above. However, this should not be equated with the number who are likely to lose PIP in future. It’s important to make a clear distinction between the two, not least because we don’t want constituents to be unnecessarily fearful about their situation, when we understand many are already anxious. Someone who did not score 4 points in an activity in a previous assessment may well score 4 points in a future assessment as conditions change over time.

There will be no immediate changes to PIP eligibility. Our intention is that changes will start to come into effect from November 2026, subject to parliamentary approval. After that date, no one will lose PIP without first being reassessed by a trained assessor or healthcare professional, who assesses individual needs and circumstance. Reassessments happen on average every 3 years. After taking account of behavioural changes, the OBR predicts that 9 in 10 of those on PIP daily living at the point any changes come in will still be receiving PIP by the end of the decade.

We are consulting on how best to support those who are affected by the new eligibility changes, including ensuring health and care needs are met.

We have also announced a wider review of the PIP assessment to make it fair and fit for purpose, which I will lead. We are bringing together a range of experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience to consider how best to do this. We will provide further details as plans progress.

Even with these reforms, the overall number of people on PIP and DLA is expected to rise by 750,000 by the end of this parliament and spending will rise from £23bn in 24/25 to £31bn in 29/30.