Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, what (a) assumptions and (b) formulae she uses to model prison place need.

On 11 December 2024, we published the first annual statement on prison capacity, fulfilling our commitment to increased transparency, holding this government and future governments to account.

The demand projections used in the annual statement are based on population projection Accredited Official Statistics which are published at: Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 - GOV.UK. Further detail on the modelling methodology is contained within the publication, including an overview of the assumptions used.