Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of prison capacity pressures on Parole Board decision-making or sentence progression, particularly in relation to risk assessments and rehabilitation pathways.

The Government recognises the pressures on prison capacity but can give reassurance that it has not materially affected parole outcomes. As set out in the Parole Board Annual Report, in 2024-25 the Board concluded c.17,000 cases at either paper or oral hearing, compared to c.16,000 in 2023-24. The proportion of cases reviewed where the Board has directed the offender’s release has remained broadly similar for the last few years (since 2021): around 1 in 4 cases result in a release direction. This indicates that the release rate by the Parole Board has remained broadly stable, suggesting that recent prison capacity pressures have not significantly affected it.