Ukraine Update
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 1 month ago)
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, with the leave of the House, I wish to repeat a Statement made in the other place earlier today by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence, Mr Ben Wallace, with reference to Ukraine. The Statement is as follows:
“Since the House rose last, I wanted to update members of progress in Ukraine and UK support to date with it. On 29 August, Ukraine embarked on a counteroffensive in the south of the country around the city of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro river. As part of the shaping fires, Ukraine had inflicted serious damage on a range of river crossings with the aim of restricting Russian logistical support. This has had some considerable success. I can report to the House that the Ukrainian forces have made real progress, assaulting on three axes, and especially on the advance to the south of the city of Kryvyi Rih. The grinding fight in the Donbass continues, but with Russia making few substantive gains in the east over the last two months. Since June, Ukraine has struck more than 350 Russian command posts, ammo dumps, supply depots and other high-value targets far back from the front line. Many of these have been with longer-range weaponry supplied by international partners, including the United Kingdom.
As of today, the Ukrainian army is engaging with Russian forces using both artillery and brigade-level operations. It is making real gains but, understandably, as we have seen elsewhere in this conflict the fighting is close and hard, and Ukraine is suffering losses associated with an attacking force. My thoughts and the Government’s thoughts are obviously with the men and women of the brave Ukrainian forces, who are fighting to uphold our values as well as theirs and defend their land.
However, Russia continues to lose significant equipment and personnel. It is estimated to date that over 25,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives and in all—including those killed, casualties, the captured or the now-reported tens of thousands of deserters—over 80,000 are dead or injured or in these other categories. This will have a long-lasting impact on Russia’s army and its future combat-effectiveness.
Russia has yet to achieve any of its strategic objectives. We are now on day 194 of what was envisaged in total to be a month-long campaign. I know members will be worried about reports about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is the biggest nuclear power station in Europe. On Friday 1 September, the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency visited the plant accompanied by Russian media. No other international media were allowed to attend. Under the IAEA an inspection was carried out and it has left a team behind. It has already draw attention to the ‘violation of its physical integrity’ and the United Nations remains gravely concerned about the dangerous situation in and around the plant. We will continue to monitor it and ensure that we engage with Ukrainian partners to also ensure that no one’s safety is put at risk.
Earlier in the month Turkey, Russia and United Nations came to an agreement on grain exports from Ukraine: the so-called Black Sea initiative was put in place. This has now seen over 2 million tonnes of grain exported, with another 100 ships waiting to embark grain from Ukraine’s ports. I want to place on record the Government’s thanks to both the United Nations and the Turkish authorities for facilitating this: it was no mean feat. We have offered the Turkish military any support it requires but, to date, the Turkish Government have not requested any support, but we do stand ready to do so.
The United Kingdom continues to gift military aid to help the Ukrainian armed forces resist the illegal invasion. Since the end of July, when this House rose, we have gifted a further three GMLRS M270 platforms and accompanying missiles. We are now working on an additional package of support. The total funding committed to this support is £2.3 billion.
In June, I recognised that training is as important as military hardware, which is why we have embarked on establishing a network of training camps in the UK to train 10,000 Ukrainians. This was accompanied by specialist armed training across a number of countries in Europe. So far, we have trained 4,700, and I am delighted that over the summer we were joined by forces from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Canada, Holland and New Zealand, who are all now in place alongside British military personnel delivering that training. The training cycle is now in its third iteration and, after lessons learned, we have now extended it to a five-week syllabus. We are already seeing this make a difference to the combat effectiveness of Ukraine, and we are evolving the course and feedback to make sure that the experiences do exactly what the Ukrainians need.
But support for Ukraine goes beyond the here and now. Being able to plan for the medium and long term requires international funding. So, at the beginning of August at the invitation of our Danish friends in the Danish Government, I co-chaired with them a conference in Copenhagen. So far, we have amassed pledges of up to €420 million of support, including those to be delivered through an international fund for Ukraine. We are working through the governance of this fund with our international partners, and we hope to add to it when I present more details this week to the Ukraine defence contact group convened by the United States in Germany on Thursday. This fund will be used to hopefully support a range of measures, including ammunition production, to ensure that there is a sustainable supply over the long term in Ukraine.
I place on record my appreciation to the Prime Minister for his enduring support for Ukraine throughout this process, without which a lot of this would not have been possible. I am grateful, too, for all the support of the parties across this House for the action we have taken. This allows us to lead on the world stage with a determination and focus on all the things that are right about Ukraine’s defence from an illegal invasion and on the fact that we share such common values of freedom, respect for sovereignty and the international rule of law. I hope all of us in this House do so—I know from experience that we do. This Government’s commitment to Ukraine remains unwavering and is enduring, and I commend this Statement to the House.”
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, I too thank the noble Baroness for repeating the Statement.
Since we rose for the Summer Recess, the Ukrainian army has had some very significant successes and appears to be making extremely good use of the resources which we and our allies are providing it with.
We on these Benches, like the Opposition, remain supportive of the stance which the Government have taken in supporting the Ukrainian Government, and we welcome the initiatives that the Secretary of State has outlined in the Statement. I have just a few questions.
First, on Zaporizhzhia, the UN is quoted in the Statement as being concerned about the dangerous situation which still obtains there. In the light of that—presumably the UK Government agree with that assessment—what scenario planning has been undertaken to look at the potential fallout, literally, of a major nuclear release at Zaporizhzhia, which is by no means impossible?
On the gifting of military equipment, there will come a point—in some areas, we have probably reached it—when we have gifted all the equipment we have or cannot gift any more without our own capabilities being too far eroded. Can the Minister confirm that new orders are being placed to replace donated stock and/or produce new equipment which we can then simply gift directly from the factory to the Ukrainian army?
Training is one of the most commendable aspects of the work we have done, not least because we have been able to add a considerable amount of capacity at a very modest cost. I echo the questions asked by the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, on the future plans for this scheme in terms of both the number of soldiers involved and its scope. Is any training involving the Ukrainian air force and navy currently being undertaken or planned?
I want to ask about the scope of the international support fund. Is it limited, as I suspect it is, to arms and military supplies or does it extend to the concept of a broader Marshall plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine? We are going to need that at some point; I just wonder whether this initiative will form the nucleus of such a broader scheme.
It was reported in the FT today that the EU is to hold a summit of European states next month to build regional co-operation in the face of Russian aggression, and that the UK has been invited to participate. Can the Minister tell us whether the UK has indeed received such an invitation and, if so, whether it has responded to it? If the answer to the latter part of the question is no, I ask the Minister to urge her colleagues—not least the new Prime Minister—that it is crucial that the UK is represented at any such event so that we can both demonstrate the maximum degree of European unity on the issue and ensure that the UK exercises the maximum influence on the co-ordinated European response.
Finally, I want to ask a couple of questions about refugees. I accept that they may be beyond the Minister’s immediate remit but perhaps she could write to me if she cannot answer them. First, what is the Government’s plan for further support for Ukrainian refugees here once we have passed the six-month point? Secondly, how long do the Government envisage the scheme being open? At what point do they envisage themselves saying that the situation in Ukraine is stable enough for the scheme to end? Thirdly, what plans do the Government have to expand the support that British universities are giving to students from Ukraine, particularly in technical subjects such as medicine where, again, as with the basic military training, a small amount of expenditure could yield significant results for Ukraine’s future prospects?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My Lords, first, I thank the noble Lords, Lord Coaker and Lord Newby, for the tenor of their introductory remarks, which was welcome; I particularly thank them for their kind remarks in relation to me. As I have said before—my right honourable friend the Secretary of State echoed this today in the other place—the force and cogency with which the UK has been able to assist Ukraine have been helped enormously by political unanimity in Westminster. It has sent a very strong message, not just to friends and allies but to Mr Putin, that in the UK there is absolutely united resolve at the political level to deal with and address this evil, and not just to talk about it but to put our money where our mouth is and provide substantive help. I am grateful to both noble Lords for their positive comments.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the issue of training and the timeframe, as was echoed by the noble Lord, Lord Newby. Although we have planned with an initial training programme of 10,000 Ukrainian personnel, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State indicated today in the other place that this support will, frankly, be provided for as long as it is needed. I think we all understand that this training is having a hugely positive impact on both the morale and the capacity and capability of the Ukrainian armed forces to deal with this threat within their country. We are under no illusions about the support that we can give on the training front, and so we accept that we are not putting a timeframe on it. We will rely on Ukraine to tell us what it needs and how many people it can present for training. We can have all the capacity and capability, but we need the Ukrainian armed forces to present people for training.
The noble Lord, Lord Newby, asked about numbers. The Statement referred to the numbers that we have been training and hope to train. My understanding is that we plan to provide up to 1,050 UK service personnel to facilitate the training of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the matter of whether we can meet the demand for weapons and asked what we are doing about replacement. These are very pertinent questions. We have been meeting demand. Again, we are liaising daily with the Ukrainian Government. As the noble Lord will be aware, we had significant stockpiles, some of which contained weapons that were not in the first flush of youth, but that did not mean that they were not still effective and useful. We have been able to draw on these stockpiles. The pertinent question then is whether we come to a point of replacement. The answer is twofold. Yes, we do, but we have made sure that at no time have we compromised the UK’s ability to defend itself and address its own national security needs, and we have been in regular consultation with industry and signalled that we anticipate approaching it with orders and that they should be getting their houses in order to ensure that they are able to deal with the supply of whatever that request may be.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about our strategy for supporting Ukraine. We all acknowledge that the character of the conflict has changed since it started, many months ago. It has perhaps moved on from being purely defensive to us now seeing Ukraine with an appetite to be offensive in trying to recover territory. Our strategy is that we constantly liaise with the Ukrainian Government, as we do with our military allies and partners, to assess what we can do to support Ukraine in what it thinks it needs at this time in the conflict. It is quite difficult to say with any precision what we might be doing at the end of this month or at the end of November because it depends on the fluidity of the conflict. As for the resolve, the commitment and the determination of the United Kingdom and our friends and allies to support Ukraine, let there be no doubt that it is rock-solid.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about NATO and European unity, which I would say is positive and strong. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, asked particularly about the EU summit, which I will come to. We have had a very good relationship with the EU, which has been cemented by the universal recognition that, when you are confronted with a threat such as Russia’s illegal invasion of a sovereign country, nobody is safe. Everybody understands the mutuality of that threat and the need to stand shoulder to shoulder and agree on how to address that threat and how to support Ukraine in resisting this illegal invasion.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, very articulately encapsulated that the energy crisis is caused by Putin. That is a message that must repeatedly be got out. The problems that we are all confronted by, not just in this country but across the globe, on energy prices, inflation and escalating food prices have been created by Putin.
We are doing everything we can to help to mitigate the effects of that, and that is partly what we are doing to assist Ukraine. President Putin is now finding that his war in Ukraine is a very expensive, distracting and damaging exercise for him and his country. That is partly to do with what we and our allies and partners are doing to support Ukraine, the effect of sanctions and the miscalculation that he made about the reaction to this invasion. He thought that this was some kind of little local incursion that he could make into a country that he took a fancy to, and he had absolutely no realisation of the global impact of his illegal activity. We are doing everything we can to help.
I cannot pre-empt what the new Prime Minister may wish to announce in relation to trying to alleviate the very corrosive impact of these prices on ordinary families in the United Kingdom, but all the indications are that the Prime Minister intends to make an announcement. I anticipate that the Government will come forward with specific plans to provide help.
There was another question about when the grain ships will leave. I do not have specific information about that, other than what is already in the Statement. Again, that is a fluid situation. When the ships can get in and be loaded, they will leave.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked specifically about the integrated review and the cuts to the Army. I repeat what my right honourable friend said in the other place: the integrated review, which we all know is a substantial piece of work, absolutely correctly identified the main threat—it is Russia. It has been confirmed sharply that the integrated review was right in that analysis.
On the cuts to the Army, as the Secretary of State has repeatedly indicated, it is always a difficult question within defence, when you look at the overall capability, to determine what you will do with money if you get it or get more of it. He summed it up very neatly today when he said that, if you get more resource, you need to look at how to make the Armed Forces less vulnerable. There may be a variety of ways to do that.
I would like to echo the final sentiment of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, who said that it is absolutely critical that all of us who are minded to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, whether as political parties of the UK or nation states who are partners and friends, stand firm. The noble Lord is absolutely correct. That must happen, and we must not allow a cigarette paper to filter between us.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia. The inspection has been very recent, and we are awaiting further information. It will then be easier to make an assessment of the situation and what response, if any, should be made.
On the reconstruction of Ukraine, we all wish we had a crystal ball. We do not know what lies ahead, but we know that there is a concerted view that Ukraine will need help with that reconstruction. It is premature to discuss it now, but we will certainly look at it when the time is appropriate.
I am unable to answer whether the United Kingdom has been invited to the EU summit about rebuilding Ukraine—it is a bit wide of my remit. I can certainly make inquiries and write to the noble Lord.
Finally, the noble Lord had a number of questions about refugees. Again, these are outwith my particular ministerial remit, but I have made of note of them. I shall look at Hansard and see if we can provide some response.
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
My Lords, the noble Baroness gave a wonderful summary of where the Government have got to. I want to look at the grain export issue. I congratulate the Government on what they are doing in helping to open up the Black Sea. The noble Baroness will know that I have been involved in an international task force to improve the volume of grain exported by rail, but the Black Sea is the answer.
I met some friends from Romania in the summer. They said that so many mines were being washed up in the Black Sea, at Constanţa and the coast nearby—Russian ones that have lost their tether—that people are forbidden to go into the sea. Are the Government or their allies doing anything to minesweep a channel? We do not want any of these ships—and the more there are the better—to hit mines and be damaged.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
That is a very important question. As the noble Lord will be aware, we do not have Royal Navy deployment in the Black Sea, but I understand that we have been amenable to providing training on countermine measures and have offered support to Turkey if Turkey would find that helpful. As the noble Lord will be aware, Turkey has deployed the Montreux convention and therefore there is very restricted activity. However, I reassure the noble Lord that if help is required by Turkey and advice and help are sought from the UK, we will look at that very sympathetically.
Viscount Trenchard (Con)
My Lords, first, I thank the Minister for repeating the Statement. Secondly, I was delighted by the supportive stance taken by the noble Lords, Lord Coaker and Lord Newby. I think it is right that in his final day of office the Prime Minister should be acknowledged for his robust support and swift response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and his leadership of the western world in the strong and continued response and resistance to the Russian invasion. Can the Minister tell the House how effective she thinks the sanctions on the Russian regime are? Are they effective or not?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
We understand that the sanctions imposed by the UK and our international partners are having deep and damaging consequences for Putin’s ability to wage war. We have sanctioned more than 1,100 individuals and 100 entities and, with our allies, have frozen around £275 billion-worth of assets. That includes oligarchs worth £117 billion. We have also announced new sanctions on Kremlin-imposed officials in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. Russia’s GDP is expected to contract by 3.5% to 8.5% in 2022, but that is compared to a pre-invasion forecast of 2.8% growth. By 2026, Russia’s economy is expected to be 16% smaller versus the pre-invasion trend estimated by the International Monetary Fund. There is evidence that it is hitting Putin hard. Much more problematic is to know whether the message is reaching ordinary Russian people. There is evidence to suggest that, sadly, they are now beginning to experience the hardship of the consequences of Putin’s illegal war. It may be that with that, coupled with the tragic deaths of and injuries to the loved ones and relatives of many people and families in Russia, they may now be beginning to pose the question: what is this about and why are we doing it?
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, looking slightly beyond now and the immediate future, what assessment have the Government made of the fact that on 25 August, the day after Putin’s chief of defence acknowledged that the Russian military campaign had stalled, President Putin signed a decree, which will come into effect on 1 January 2023, increasing the size of his country’s combat forces by 137,000 people? That brings Russian combat personnel to 1.15 million people. If we take into account that Ukraine has set itself the target of a 1 million-strong military, what are the implications for the strategic stability of the part of the world that we are a key part of? What assessment have the Government made of this significant development?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
It may be that Putin passes a law or makes a decree, but we have seen that the mass and volume of his armed forces numbers have not delivered for him the military triumph that he clearly anticipated was within his grasp when he embarked upon this illegal war. As the noble Lord will be aware, various reasons are hypothesised for that: many of these troops were untrained, many were provided with equipment not fit for purpose, and there seems to have been an absence of overall strategic command. So there are inherent weaknesses within the fundamental operational capacity of the Russian military. That has become evident as Ukraine has embarked on its activity to defend the country and seek to call Putin to account.
The noble Lord is right that these levels of activity are alarming but we must not be distracted and we must never lose sight of the fact that something wrong, illegal and dangerous has happened; somehow, we and our like-minded friends and allies have to respond to that by helping Ukraine. The gift that Putin would wish for is to think that anyone is getting bored or fed up or is now taking this all for granted. We are not—this country is not doing that, and neither are our European and NATO partners. We are resolved to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine and do whatever it takes to assist in bringing this illegal invasion to an end.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, sanctions, as we know, are a very blunt instrument and, indeed, a double-edged sword—they harm those imposing the sanctions as well as those subject to them—but, as my noble friend said, they appear to be working in Russia; they are certainly reducing economic activity and, God willing, they will have a significant effect on the Russian economy. However, we hear from some of our European allies that they are less than enthused by the sanctions. In particular, Senor Salvini, who may easily be in government in Italy before the end of this month, yesterday called for an end to sanctions. Can my noble friend reassure me that our European allies will continue to be steadfast in backing continuing sanctions as part of the great unity that we wish to continue to see?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
In the course of responding to the conflict in Ukraine we have been encouraged by the attitude and decisions of our friends within the EU. Very constructive measures have been taken and there has been a manifest level of co-operation and recognition of what I said earlier—that this is a threat that affects us all. It may be that an individual political leader in an individual European country has reservations about sanctions. It is for the other countries, whether inside or outwith the EU, to explain that the evidence is there that sanctions work and are beginning to bite Putin where it matters. That is a very powerful argument to advance.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the Minister for reading the Statement, not least because the situation in Ukraine has such direct relevance to the energy crisis being faced by millions of people in Britain today. I have two brief questions: first, in relation to longer-range missiles and the Minister’s own reference to offensive operations, are the Government confident that these cannot be fired either deliberately or accidentally into the territory of Russia itself? Secondly, in respect of the International Atomic Energy Agency visit, I am sure the Minister will agree that it has an extremely important job of work to do, but can the United Kingdom use its position as a permanent member of the Security Council to ensure that a report on the situation at that nuclear plant is available and discussed at the Security Council because it has such relevance to the global community?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
If I may, I will take the noble Viscount’s second question first. As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord Newby, we are in the early days of understanding what the inspection has gleaned. I think there will be a recognition by the United Nations that there is universal interest in understanding what has happened at that plant. Therefore, again, it is somewhat outwith my ministerial sphere of responsibility, but I would be very surprised if the FCDO is not actively engaging with the United Nations to understand more about the inspection and what might ultimately be disclosed on that front.
In relation to the supply of weapons by the UK to Ukraine and what they are used for, we have made it clear that they must be used in conformity with international law. That includes using them within Ukraine for the defence of the country. Defending the country and using the weapons within Ukraine may be offensive in nature because that may be aimed at activity engaged in by Russian forces but still within Ukraine, but we require that Ukraine operates within international humanitarian law and international law, and that is understood.
Lord Hylton (CB)
My Lords, I was glad to hear that the Statement gave quite a bit of space to the very important agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds. This is the first sign of a slight concession on the part of Russia. It is also of extreme importance to some of the poorest people in the Middle East and north Africa, including some of those living in refugee camps or displaced people.
Can the Minister confirm the figure given in the Statement of 2 million tonnes already exported and apparently having reached their destinations? Of course this is only a small proportion of the total foodstuffs in store in Ukraine—maybe 10%—so it is still extremely important. Can she tell us anything about the current 2022 harvest in Ukraine? How badly has it been affected by the fighting? Is it being successfully stored?
I repeat what I have mentioned previously: we should not just settle and plan for a long drawn-out war. Anything that can be done to shorten it must be done. Are the Government therefore working to make the maximum use of the possible and available channels of communication, including through our diplomatic staff in Russia?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
On the specific question about the 2 million tonnes of grain, I do not have information as to where that has gone or which countries have received it. I can undertake to make inquiries and if an answer is forthcoming, I shall write to the noble Lord.
He is quite right that the consequence of all this is impacting desperately on the poorer countries of the world. It may be a considerable time before there is a manifest expansion of the grain exports that would both provide food to sources that need it and reduce the price and cost of the food supply. That may take a little time.
In the meantime, we as a country have produced £372 million pounds for the countries most impacted by rising global food prices, which was announced at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in June. The UK and partners also secured the largest ever World Bank financial commitment of $170 billion for low-income countries around the world. That is supporting countries facing economic hardship as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On the final point, this war is going, I am afraid, to be a protracted affair. At the end of the day, how it unfolds and what the consequences are will very much depend on Ukraine’s decisions about what Ukraine wants to do. That is not for others to interfere in. They must come to their own view, when they think they can, as to what options are available to them.
On the final question about communications with Russia, it is very difficult to maintain diplomatic relations with a country which has behaved as appallingly as Russia has. What I can say to the noble Lord is that at defence level, MoD maintains communication with the Russian MoD to try to ensure that we understand the escalation and implications of any military activity. At that level there is engagement, but I am afraid that diplomatic engagement in the current situation is almost impossible to contemplate.
Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle (GP)
My Lords, I return to the section of the Statement referring to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, particularly the final part of that section which says that we will
“engage with Ukrainians to ensure no one’s safety is put at risk”.
Given that Reuters was reporting a couple of hours ago that the Ukrainian energy authority has just confirmed reports from the weekend that the sixth reactor has again been disconnected from the grid, due to the destruction of power lines, I do not really believe that the Government can say that they can ensure that no one’s safety will be put at risk. None the less, the Statement talks about engaging with the Ukrainians on this issue. Can the noble Baroness assure me that all possible diplomatic pressures are being used on the Russians to seek to push towards the demilitarisation and safe restoration of that area? In light of the fact that Ukraine is distributing iodine tablets to its population around the nuclear plant, are the Government working with the Inter-Agency Committee on Radiological and Nuclear Emergencies to ensure that international preparations, should the worst happen, are at the absolute highest level they could possibly be?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
Again, I say to the noble Baroness that is somewhat out of my ministerial sphere but I am very sympathetic to her concerns. The Statement said that we will do our best to monitor what is happening; we will certainly engage with Ukrainian partners to understand what is going on. As I said to the noble Lords, Lord Newby and Lord Hylton, it is now very much a matter for the International Atomic Energy Authority to consider what it has found and what its recommendations are. It would be sensible for this country to work with other partners within the United Nations on that front. As the noble Viscount, Lord Stansgate, pointed out, these are serious issues. At the end of the day, we will work better in co-operation with the United Nations in trying to understand what is happening.
Afghanistan: British Special Forces
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 3 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, with the leave of the House, I shall repeat the Answer to the Urgent Question provided by my honourable friend Mr James Heappey, Minister for Armed Forces, in the other place earlier today. The response is as follows:
“Mr Speaker, on 12 July, the BBC broadcast an episode of ‘Panorama’ claiming evidence of criminality allegedly committed by Special Forces in Afghanistan. The Ministry of Defence is currently defending two judicial reviews relating to allegations of unlawful killings during operations in Afghanistan in 2011 and 2012. While I accept that in order to allow today’s Urgent Question you have waived the convention not to discuss matters that are sub judice, advice from MoD lawyers is that any discussion of specific details would be prejudicial to the ongoing litigation and that I am afraid I simply cannot enter into detail about specific allegations made on specific operations relating to specific people.
We recognise very much the severity of these allegations and where there is reason to believe that personnel may have fallen short of expectations, it is absolutely right that they be held to account. Nobody in our organisation, however special, is above the law and the service police have already carried out extensive investigations into allegations about the conduct of UK Forces in Afghanistan, including allegations of ill-treatment and unlawful killing.
No charges were brought under Operation Northmoor, which investigated historical allegations relating to instances in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2013. The service police concluded there was insufficient evidence to bring cases to the independent Service Prosecuting Authority. I should stress that both these organisations have full authority and independence to take investigative decisions outside of the MoD’s chain of command.
A separate allegation from October 2012 was investigated by the Royal Military Police under Operation Cestro, which resulted in the referral of three soldiers to the Service Prosecuting Authority. In 2014, after careful consideration, the Director of Service Prosecutions took the decision not to prosecute any of the three soldiers referred.
It is my understanding that all of the allegedly criminal events referred to in the ‘Panorama’ programme have already been fully investigated by the service police. However, we remain fully committed to any further reviews or investigations, where any new evidence or reason to do so is presented.
A decision to investigate allegations of criminality is for the service police. They provide an independent and impartial investigative capability, free from improper interference. Earlier this week, the Royal Military Police wrote to the production team of ‘Panorama’ to request any new evidence be provided to it. I am placing a copy of the RMP’s letter in the Library of the House. I understand that the BBC has responded to question the legal basis on which the RMP is requesting that new evidence, which makes little sense to me. But the RMP and the BBC are in discussions.
As I have said, if there is any new evidence presented to the Royal Military Police, it will be investigated. I am aware that the programme alleges the involvement of units for which it is MoD policy to neither confirm nor deny their involvement in any operational event. As such, I must refer in generalities to the Armed Forces in response to the questions I know colleagues will want to ask. I cannot refer to any specific service personnel who may or may not have served in these units. We should continue to recognise the overwhelming majority of our Armed Forces serve with courage and professionalism. We hold them to the highest standards. They are our nation’s bravest and best and allegations like this tarnish the reputation of an organisation. We all want to see allegations like these investigated so that the fine reputation of the British Armed Forces can be untarnished and remain as high as it should be.”
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for the tenor of his remarks. Yes, it is the case that the RMP has asked the BBC, the “Panorama” production team, to produce this evidence on which it founded the programme. If that evidence is produced and it is new evidence it will fully investigated and it will initially be the task of the Royal Military Police to do that. The police are independent of the chain of command and have the power to pursue these matters objectively and independently and in the best interests of serving justice.
Lord Purvis of Tweed (LD)
My Lords, I also pay tribute very strongly to our Armed Forces personnel but, as the Minister said, these are grave allegations, especially in the context where, as we see with Ukraine, the moral leadership and professionalism of our Armed Forces and the reputation that we hold is very strong as far as the UK is concerned. Can the Minister be a bit more specific on the independent status of the Royal Military Police in how it will approach the new allegations? Would the Minister agree that there is a case for, and an opportunity for, a parallel, external, independent review of how these allegations are held? Ultimately the Royal Military Police Force is, as the Minister said, beyond the chain of command, but it is still an internal investigative authority.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble Lord will be aware that the Royal Military Police is indeed an independent investigatory authority that has been regarded as professional and effective. It engages regularly with its civilian counterparts to ensure that it is adopting best practice and pursuing the best approach for investigations. Initially, if new evidence is produced, it would be for the Royal Military Police to investigate that.
As to broader issues, the Secretary of State has been very clear that nothing is ruled out. Really, the starting point has to be whether there is new evidence. If so, it needs to be produced.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
My Lords, I declare my interests as a serving member of the Army, somebody who served in Afghanistan and, perhaps most relevant, served as the Minister for the Armed Forces from 2017 to 2019.
I would like simply to reassure your Lordships’ House, as somebody who is as concerned as anybody about these allegations. When they first emerged, I was deeply impressed with the thoroughness of the investigation by the Royal Military Police, both within the United Kingdom and, crucially, within Afghanistan, perhaps learning the lessons of the past where such investigations were not thorough in Northern Ireland and elsewhere. It is of course in the Ministry of Defence’s own interests that these allegations are thoroughly investigated because, often, new allegations are not new at all but simply a rehash or second-hand views of allegations that have been made already.
Does my noble friend the Minister agree that the Royal Military Police is uniquely placed? With its knowledge of service matters, its ability to investigate historically within Afghanistan at the time and its own service personnel, it has the right people to continue this investigation.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank my noble friend. I am sure the House will have paid close attention to his authority in relation to these matters.
I reassure the House that the RMP is a professional, competent and well-trained investigative authority, and it has proven itself in that effectiveness on numerous occasions. As I said to the noble Lord, Lord Purvis, it engages with the civilian police force to make sure that it is absolutely abreast of all the procedures and processes of modern technology.
My noble friend is quite right: if there is anything wrong, if anything criminal has happened and the evidence can be produced to substantiate that, of course it is in the interests of the MoD and the great majority of law-abiding, upstanding and honourable members of the military that these matters be investigated. I reassure him again that if we are made aware of any new evidence that supports the assertions made in the programme then, yes, they will be investigated.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, the SAS has an international reputation as the bravest and best. All I can say from my time as Secretary of State for Defence is that that is a well-earned reputation. The allegations are very grave. I do not intend to draw the Minister into any comments about specific allegations, but at the heart of the response from the MoD is the information, which is impressive, that extensive independent investigations have taken place and no charges were brought because there was no evidence to justify that.
My problem is that at the heart of the programme is an allegation that investigators told the police—this is apparently supported by some video evidence—that they were obstructed by the British military in their efforts to gather evidence. That is a fundamental and important allegation, which, separately from anything else, needs to be investigated.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I say to the noble Lord that, as he will understand from his own background, we need evidence. That is why the RMP has asked the BBC for the evidence. Where is the substance of the information on which it based this programme? That is what we are waiting to see. As I remarked in the Statement, the BBC wants to seek the RMP’s legal authority for seeking this information, which seems to be the most perverse way of approaching everyone’s interests in trying to find the truth and establish justice. Still, there is engagement between the RMP and the BBC and the noble Lord is correct: if there is evidence to support these very serious allegations, and it is new evidence, it will be investigated.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, is it not the case that if the investigators feel they are in need of advice, they can seek such advice from the Attorney-General?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My understanding is that the Royal Military Police are free to seek advice. As I said earlier, they may seek advice from the civilian police force. If confronted with legal issues, they may want to seek legal authority, and the Attorney-General may well be the appropriate destination to seek that advice from.
Lord Cormack (Con)
My Lords, does my noble friend not share my deep sense of unease that the BBC should choose to broadcast this programme before laying the evidence that it had before the appropriate authorities?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I think we all understand that journalism has a role in a democratic society, and journalists have a job to do and documentary producers seek to discharge that role. What I think is reprehensible is—in discharging that role without producing substantive evidence or explaining why that evidence has never been investigated before—to proceed to traduce reputations and, as I say, tarnish an honourable military force of which we are extremely proud, the British Army, in which the overwhelming majority of soldiers are upstanding, competent and professional individuals who abide by the law.
Lord Stirrup (CB)
My Lords, does the Minister accept that there are two issues involved here, legal and reputational? In law, people are innocent until they are proved guilty, but reputations can be besmirched by programmes such as “Panorama” even if there is insufficient evidence to bring a legal case. If there is evidence then quite clearly it needs to be pursued vigorously, but, if there is not, does the Minister accept that it would be insufficient for the MoD simply to say, “There is insufficient evidence to bring a criminal case”? It will have to adopt a more proactive approach to demonstrate to the British public that their confidence in the Special Forces is not misplaced and that proper procedures were followed.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I think we all understand the noble and gallant Lord’s interests in this with great sympathy. He will understand why I have to be generic in my references. We are actively seeking that new evidence. If it can be produced, action will be taken. There may then be the broader issue, if no new evidence can be produced, of what constitutes responsible journalism and what are the unacceptable consequences of irresponsible journalism.
Defence Spending Priorities: NATO Summit
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord West of Spithead
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what changes to defence spending priorities they will make as a result from the outcome of the NATO summit in June.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, although the next spending review will determine the exact changes to defence spending priorities, as the Prime Minister stated at the NATO summit last week, we need to invest for the long term in vital capabilities such as future combat air, while simultaneously adapting to a more dangerous and competitive world. The logical conclusion of the investments we propose to embark on and of these decisions is 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, I must first say that I am very impressed that the Minister is so on top of her brief; she read it just 20 seconds ago. The NATO summit clearly identified Russia as a clear and present danger. There is a danger of a world war at very short notice. The summit identified a need to spend money on defence. We need to spend that money today. Does the Minister not agree that we need to spend now? It is no good waiting for the end of this spending review. We know that we will not have a fully stocked armoured division available to fight peer-on-peer until the 2030s. We know that our number of frigates will keep falling and not come up again until the 2030s. We might well have had two wars by then. We need to spend now. Does she agree?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
To reassure the noble Lord, I tell him that the pack was read, digested and tabbed, but unfortunately it was not where I was. I was very pleased to be reunited with it. What we have seen with recent events is a confirmation of what was identified in the integrated review and the defence Command Paper—that Russia is the current threat. Therefore, the assessment in these papers holds true. However, we are not complacent. We recognise that the context in which we are operating is shifting and we are watching and analysing the situation. We will make adjustments where appropriate, but we should wait in some cases to see what unfolds.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
But the devil is in the detail, my Lords. Although I welcome 2.5% by 2030, can my noble friend perhaps—
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thought someone was going to answer the question for me; all offers of help gratefully received. My noble friend identifies a significant issue that was the subject of extensive discussion at the recent NATO summit. The MoD continues to understand the implications of the war in Ukraine for the readiness and resilience of our Armed Forces, for the health of our industrial base and for our review of our stocks of weapons and munitions, because that forms a key element of the analysis we carry out. All parties to NATO are doing similar things, but I reassure my noble friend that this department remains fully engaged with industry, allies and partners to ensure that all equipment and munitions granted in kind are replaced as expeditiously as possible.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, in Madrid, NATO agreed to create a force of 300,000 troops to be kept on high alert in order to meet the Russian threat. How can the United Kingdom make a meaningful contribution to that force without increasing the British Army?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As my noble friend Lord Howe explained so eloquently last week in response to a Question specifically about this, we have explained our approach. We are very clear that the Army will be more agile. It will have a greater speed of response. It will be remodelled around brigade combat teams, which means more self-sufficient tactical units with the ability to integrate the full range of capabilities at the lowest possible level. In addition, every part of the Army Reserve will have a clear war-fighting role and will stand ready to fight as part of the whole force in time of war.
Baroness Falkner of Margravine (CB)
I first apologise to the Minister for my enthusiastic earlier attempt at intervention. I assure her that the last thing I would seek to do at the moment is to expect to speak on behalf of Her Majesty’s Government. Turning to the substantive question from the noble Lord, Lord West, will she accept that in a declining or stagflating economy a GDP target several years out is almost meaningless once inflation is taken account of? Will they at least attempt to set an immediate target for where they expect to get to within a reasonable—I should say “prompt”—period in terms of real funding?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The Prime Minister has made it clear that the investments we propose to embark on, such as AUKUS and FCAS, will mean that defence spending will reach 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade. It is currently projected to reach 2.3% of GDP this year. We constantly assess the threat and our ability to respond to it, which is a responsible way to proceed.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, on Monday in the other place, while making a Statement, the Prime Minister was on more than one occasion asked a variant of the excellent question that the noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, asked. He never once answered the question but twice prayed in aid what he called the “gigantic” commitment we are making to the AUKUS agreement and how it will increase defence spending very considerably, taking it over the target of 2.5%—those are not the exact words but that is what he said. On 16 December when he made the initial Statement about AUKUS he said nothing about predicted costs. On the contrary, he said that AUKUS came with lucrative defence and security opportunities. There is no information in the public domain on the predicted cost of AUKUS so where can I find the evidence of the gigantic commitment we seem to have made, that only the Prime Minister seems to be aware of?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As the noble Lord is aware, AUKUS is subject to an 18-month scoping period, so Her Majesty’s Government cannot prejudge the outcome of that period. Similarly, in the advanced capabilities space, all working groups are currently in the initial phases. As that proceeds, we will have a clearer picture of what the UK contribution can be. Much the same can be said of FCAS. These are very significant projects.
Lord Trefgarne (Con)
My Lords, are there plans to deploy any of our existing naval forces to the Black Sea to facilitate some of the export of the large quantities of grain which at present are unable to move?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My noble friend refers to an important issue: how we transport that grain, if possible. Discussions are taking place among the different partner countries as to what solutions there might be. There are no Royal Navy craft in the Black Sea. My noble friend will be aware that the Montreux convention governs maritime activity there, and that has been deployed by Turkey.
Lord Coaker (Lab)
My Lords, was not the most welcome outcome of the Madrid summit NATO’s agreement to admit Finland and Sweden? Far from weakening NATO, Putin’s actions have strengthened it. Alongside that, is it not clear that we need to review the cuts to tank numbers, cuts to C130 transport planes and cuts of 10,000 troops? Is the chair of the Defence Select Committee not right when he says that 2.5% of GDP on defence spending by the end of the decade is too little, too late?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As the noble Lord is aware, people will have varying views on the appropriate percentage of GDP to spend on defence. We have laid down a clearly structured plan based on the integrated review and the defence Command Paper, and we regularly make available progress reports—for example, our annual review of the equipment plan—on where we are in the delivery of all that. We constantly assess need and identify and assess threat. We try to make sure that the two are aligned and that we meet the one with the other, and that is a sensible way to proceed.
Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)
My Lords, there is a theme on all sides of your Lordships’ House that perhaps 2.5% is insufficient—or at least can be overtaken by inflation, which is looking to move to double digits, and the exchange rate, which has gone down yet again today. What work are Her Majesty’s Government doing to ensure that the 2.5%, or whatever is spent on defence, will be adequate for everything the Government claim they will achieve?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As I have indicated to the Chamber, there is a regular assessment by the MoD of both the threat we have to meet and the means by which we meet it. For example, the equipment plan—a massive plan—is kept under constant review to ensure that it is delivering the capabilities required to let us deliver our strategic outcomes. Major changes are normally undertaken as part of a formal government-led review process, but the MoD conducts an annual review to ensure that capabilities are not just being delivered but are still the right ones to meet the evolving threat.
Armed Forces Act (Continuation) Order 2022
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 3 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, today we have a small though essential piece of parliamentary business to conduct: our annual consideration of the legislation governing the Armed Forces. First, I express my admiration for our Armed Forces—a sentiment that I know is echoed across the Chamber—who display with professionalism and commitment their exceptional feats to protect this country. At times they do so in incredibly difficult circumstances at home and further afield. They deserve our absolute unqualified respect and appreciation.
As we commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Falklands War, I take this opportunity to extend our gratitude to those 30,000 brave men and women who made that long journey to the south Atlantic and served with courage and distinction. It was a privilege for me to attend the Falklands War memorial service at the National Memorial Arboretum last month. That was a most poignant occasion.
The draft order that we are considering is to continue in force the Armed Forces Act 2006 for a further year—that is, until the end of 14 December 2023. This reflects a constitutional requirement under the Bill of Rights that a standing Army, and by extension now the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force, must have the consent of Parliament. Every five years, renewal is by an Act of Parliament—an Armed Forces Act. The most recent was in 2021 and there must be another before the end of 2026. Between each five-yearly Act, annual renewal is by Order in Council, such as the one before us.
The Armed Forces Act 2006 contains the provisions necessary for maintenance of the Armed Forces, including the systems of command, justice and, very importantly, discipline. If the Armed Forces Act 2006 is not renewed by this Order in Council before the end of 14 December 2022, it will automatically expire and the legislation that governs the Armed Forces and the provisions necessary for their maintenance as disciplined bodies will cease to exist. The continuation of this Act therefore is essential for the maintenance of discipline wherever service personnel are serving in the world, whether that is supporting emergency services and local communities at home, as demonstrated so impressively in the recent fight against Covid; continuing to provide high-quality instruction and training to many of Ukraine’s troops; or maintaining and enhancing our welcome footprint in the Baltic and northern Europe to strengthen Euro-Atlantic security.
Lord Burnett (LD)
My Lords, I join the Minister of State, my noble friend Lady Smith and the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, in their support and admiration for our wonderful Armed Forces. During the progress of the Act, I referred to Sir Richard Henriques’s admirable report and the suggestions and recommendations he made. Will the Minister give us an answer as to what is happening about those recommendations? If not much is happening, when will something happen about them?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My Lords, I thank your Lordships for the warmth of sentiment. I think we articulate a conjoined view of admiration for our Armed Forces. It is very important to our Armed Forces to know that these sentiments come from all quarters of the Chamber. It is important that they are aware of that and know that they are valued right across the political spectrum. I thank your Lordships for making that so clear.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised a number of points. He correctly raised the need to continue to explain to the public the importance of what we are doing to support Ukraine. I absolutely agree with that. As I think we all understand, what we are doing to come to the aid of Ukraine and to assist in its self-defence, along with our NATO allies and other partners, is, frankly, a fundamental fight for the preservation of freedom, sovereignty and respect for international law, which we have seen so appallingly traduced in recent months. I entirely agree with his sentiment, and there are probably various ways in which we can apply our minds to how we might continue to do that, and maybe do it better, so I thank him for raising the point.
As he indicated, it extends not just to the United Kingdom but to our NATO allies. The NATO summit did its own bit of dissemination of information, because it garnered a lot of publicity and interest. It was largely all about how we in Euro-Atlantic security recognise what has been happening and then pool our resources to make sure we have a really impressive and robust facility to deter any further illegal activity.
The noble Lord raised a technical point that I understood, but it bewildered me because I did not have an answer to it. I am grateful to him for raising the point. I am informed by my officials that the Armed Forces Act 2006 itself does not extend to Gibraltar and the Channel Islands. I think that is because of their particular Administrations and regimens within their jurisdictions, but apparently they can apply the Act using their own legislation. It seems that technically they are outwith the scope of the Act but that if there are parts of the Act that they wish to invoke, they can use their own legislative powers to achieve that.
The support of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for the Armed Forces was also very welcome. I rather shared her sense of déjà vu about the recurrence of Armed Forces legislation. We all agree that it is important, but we have been seeing it quite regularly in the legislative programme. It matters and it is probably refreshing for us all—not least for me as a Minister—to be constantly reminded of things we must keep an eye on.
I wish to reassure the noble Baroness that the SI we are dealing with is of course very important. She mentioned the paucity of personnel on the Front Bench. I think earlier matters completely consumed your Lordships’ attention and probably exhausted their appetite for further discussion. I was very nearly not here myself, so it was a great relief that I came panting in at the 11th hour. I hope the Secretary of State for Defence remains in post; he and I have a good relationship and I think he is doing a first-class job.
The noble Baroness raised the important issue of what the Government are doing to value our Armed Forces and to be sure that we are allocating to them the resources they require. She raised a number of important specific issues, such as health and safety, morale and troop numbers, which I know is a subject of interest to your Lordships. With the recent budget settlement, a lot of expenditure is now being allocated to the very sorts of things she is concerned about, whether that is improving uniforms—not least for women, interestingly—or looking at upgrading service families’ accommodation and making sure it is much more modern and acceptable. There have been issues with some elements of that accommodation but that is currently very much under active review.
Lord Burnett (LD)
Sir Richard Henriques made an admirable report, which we discussed in last year’s debate leading up to the Act. He made some recommendations, and I wonder what has happened about them—whether they have been adopted and when they will be adopted if they have not—and the progress the Government are making in dealing with those very important recommendations.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord and apologise for failing to pick up on his question first time round. I have good news to share. The Henriques report was, frankly, excellent, and pivotal to redirecting how the MoD should conduct activity within the service justice system. I remind your Lordships that Henriques found that that system was, in its own respect, robust, professional and capable. Importantly, the Defence Serious Crime Unit has been set up, and a provost marshal has been appointed to run it. There are to be improvements to Military Police investigations, but the Military Police are now benefitting from additional training which they share with their civilian counterparts. That is a very important aspect of how we assist our Military Police in dealing with investigations. There have been other improvements in how we expect witnesses to give evidence and the protections we can afford to them when they give evidence, including victims, so that that much more replicates the safeguards we find in the civilian criminal justice system.
What might be helpful to the noble Lord is for me to go back and task my official who is preparing a little précis of the progress that has been made—progress has been constant and it has been important—and undertake to write to the noble Lord with that. I will put the letter in the Library so that that information is more broadly available.
Lord Coaker (Lab)
I thank the Minister for that very helpful reply about the Henriques review and the progress being made with it. Given that she said that this order does not apply to Gibraltar, and has outlined the way in which discipline will be progressed through the Henriques review and other regulations as they come forward, does that mean that none of the regulations as they relate to discipline and apply with respect to this order will apply to Gibraltar? The Minister may not be able to answer, but she gave a very helpful answer about the Henriques review, which deals with service discipline and service justice, and outlined the progress made with respect to its implementation. But given that this order does not apply to Gibraltar—if I understood it right, the Gibraltar Government have their own rules—what does that mean for regulations such as the Henriques review with respect to Gibraltar?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
It is probably important to distinguish between discipline, which is one of the tenets of our UK Armed Forces, and operating according to a code of behaviour and under a chain of command. That is what the Armed Forces Act embraces and what the annual renewal order refreshes every year. That is entirely to do with United Kingdom forces and how they are constituted. Gibraltar and the Channel Islands are outwith that.
On the question of how we run our service justice system, I may be wrong but I think that the service justice system is distinct from Gibraltar because Gibraltar has its own administrative and legislative processes. I will inquire on that, and undertake to write in greater detail to the noble Lord.
Royal Navy: Ships
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Lord West of Spithead
To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether the recently announced Ocean Surveillance Ship and National Flagship will be built concurrently; and when those vessels are expected to enter service with the Royal Navy.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, with the new multi-role ocean surveillance programme announced in the defence Command Paper of 2021 currently in its concept phase, and the national flagship programme in its design stage, with a competitive procurement process in progress, it is too early to discuss build arrangements for the two programmes.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, five years ago the shipbuilding strategy came out, and I was impressed and pleased that the Government seemed to have gripped this very important issue. I said so on the Floor of the House. However, I said to the Minister that many times over the years I had been promised ships and had never stood on their quarterdeck. I have the same feeling with this. We have ordered five frigates since then and not a single other ship. Three years ago, we were told that we were ordering three fleet solid support ships. They are still not ordered. This really worries me. When it comes to these two ships, does the Minister agree that the oceanographic surveillance ship is way more important for our nation and defence than the other ship, because of data links et cetera going across the Atlantic? With the possibility of a world war, it is the sort of thing that Putin would have a go at.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble Lord will not be surprised to learn that I do not share his pessimism. I am tempted to ask under which government regime shipbuilding was in such a poor state. Thanks to the national shipbuilding strategy, we now see one of the most exciting programmes in UK shipbuilding for decades. That is recognised in the industry—and in his single service. These are two exciting prospects. As he knows, the MROS will replace HMS “Scott”. I will not say that it is a Trojan horse; it is a sturdy reliable Clydesdale which plods away doing its work. These two boats—
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble Lord manages to induce a bit of pessimism in me. These two ships are a very important addition to the fleet.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
The original budget for the flagship was some £200 million. The Defence Secretary now says that it may be up to £250 million. With inflation running in the shipbuilding pipeline at some 8%, can my noble friend tell your Lordships’ House potentially what the upper limit for that budget would be, for the flagship to continue to offer value for money? Also, when was the last time that the Government or any Government delivered a warship for its original budget?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I will take the last question first. My noble friend is aware that very strict procurement rules now govern MoD procurement, and that the budgets for the Type 26 and Type 31 are very vigilantly watched. On the possible price range for the national flagship I cannot be specific about figures but, to put these sums in perspective, over four years the projected cost amounts to an impact on the defence budget in the region of 0.1%.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, the ocean surveillance ship has the purpose of safeguarding critical infrastructure in the north Atlantic. When it was announced in March 2021, the service date of 2024 was given, but in a Written Answer last November, the Government said there was no date for entry into service. Why has the service date been allowed to drag in that way? In relation to the national flagship, why is it necessary for a ship whose purpose is to showcase the United Kingdom’s economy, and to boost trade and investment, to be provided from the defence budget? The defence budget is not elastic, although this Government seem to think so.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I remind the noble Lord that the defence budget has one of the biggest settlements, from this Government, that it has seen in decades. That includes a period when the noble Lord was active in support of government. I say to the noble Lord that the MROSS is a technically complicated ship. It is in its concept and assessment phase. He will understand the complicated progress that is then made to the point of being able to talk about initial operating capability, never mind going into service. It is an important addition to the fleet.
On the budget of the national flagship, the national flagship will achieve two things. It will promote the UK in its foreign policy and security objectives, but it will also be an addition to the Royal Navy and, by adopting its soft diplomacy role, it will free up people in the Royal Navy to do other military tasks. It is a very natural addendum to the MoD.
Baroness Stuart of Edgbaston (CB)
My Lords, I refer to my entry in the register of interests. The whole point of the ocean surveillance ship was to protect critical infrastructure pertaining to our digital capability and communications. I am not disinclined to be optimistic, but it will take some time before we can protect those cables properly. Is there any strategy, or any co-ordination with our allies and NATO, to protect that infrastructure until those ships actually provide it?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord West, we currently have HMS “Scott” continuing to do very important and necessary work. I would not want to give any impression that that infrastructure is not being protected. It is, but what we naturally look to is a replacement and successor for HMS “Scott”.
Lord Coaker (Lab)
My Lords, following on from my noble friend Lord West’s Question, I think the House will be disappointed that the Minister said that it was too early to say anything about when the design would take place, when the ordering would take place and when we can expect these two ships to be in operational service. Would the Minister go back to the Ministry of Defence and say that we would like greater clarity on timing of all this? Furthermore, if it is the Government’s intention that these ships are built in Britain, will that be the default position? Should there be one British tender for either or both of these ships that will see them, particularly the national British flagship, built in Britain?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
They are very different ships, as the noble Lord will understand. The intention is that the National Shipbuilding Office for the MROSS will seek to maximise the opportunities for UK industry in these programmes, but within the boundaries of our international legal obligations. As he is aware, national security will be attached to the national flagship and it will be built in the UK.
Lord Trefgarne (Con)
My Lords, years ago, we were able to say that there were about 50 destroyers and frigates available for service in the Royal Navy. What is the present figure and is it sufficient for the threats that we face?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I cannot give my noble friend a precise figure for the entire fleet of ships, but I can say that, as he is aware, there have been significant additions in recent years, not least the two Queen Elizabeth-class carriers. We have an exciting programme of frigate building for the Type 26 and Type 31 and, of course, we have the Type 23s continuing in service and supporting. We are satisfied that we have the capability we need for the tasks that befall us.
Lord Rooker (Lab)
Is it not the case that these ships require crews, and that crews require uniforms and other facilities on board for domestic purposes? Therefore, can the Minister give an absolute guarantee that none of the cotton products will include cotton from Xinjiang? It is absolutely fundamental, and I am very pleased that the Minister for Health is sitting next to the Minister, because exactly the same applies in the NHS. Do not trust the paperwork. The forensic company Oritain, using element analysis, can tell from the fabric where the cotton was grown. We do not want, on flagships for the Royal Navy, cotton produced by slave labour in China.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I do not have that specific information before me, but the noble Lord’s point is noted and I shall make inquiries.
Lord Fox (LD)
My Lords, I am sure the Minister agrees that much has changed in the world since the OSS was first conceived and the contract let. Would the Minister concede that it is inappropriate to stand at the Dispatch Box and find reasons why this project is being delayed? It would be more appropriate for the Minister to explain how it is being expedited and sped up to meet the new world situation.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The MROSS is not a military engagement ship, per se; it is a ship that will do important surveillance activity, with reference to our subsea cables and energy infrastructure. I do not for one minute disagree: it is an important project; the MoD recognises that, but it is complex. That is why proper regard to due process must be taken.
Lord Alton of Liverpool (CB)
My Lords, in the context of Ukraine, can the noble Baroness say what role the Royal Navy is playing in deterring Russian aggression? Given that there are 25 million tonnes of grain blockaded in ports around the Black Sea, what advice is the Royal Navy giving, particularly to neutral countries and their navies, to get that food out to feed starving people in the Horn of Africa?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As the noble Lord is aware, maritime activity in the Black Sea is governed by the Montreux convention, which Turkey has deployed. For the moment, that restricts activity. The United Kingdom Government are consulting with allies and partners on how on earth we can try to get some of that grain shipped, either by sea or by land.
Ukraine: UK and NATO Military Commitment
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
First, I echo the noble Lord’s sentiments of gratitude to our Armed Forces. I have already participated in one of the services, up in Scotland, and I did so with a great sense of pride. I also thank him for his constructive approach, as ever, to matters in Ukraine.
On training, on which the Prime Minister’s announcement was very welcome, the UK is considering several options outside Ukraine to roll out the training programme, and that could include locations in the UK and other locations in Europe. The UK plans to provide basic infantry training to new or entry-level conventional recruits of the armed forces of Ukraine. The noble Lord will be aware that the Treasury has made £1.3 billion in operational support and capability available for Ukraine. This fund is expected to contribute to the first stage of the training initiative.
The noble Lord asked about the placement of contracts. His colleague the noble Lord, Lord Reid of Cardowan, raised this last week and I shall write to him, but I can say to the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that there is of course constant engagement. The department is fully engaged with industry, allies and partners to ensure that all equipment and munitions granted in kind are replaced as expeditiously as possible. But I am afraid that, for operational, commercial and security reasons, I cannot provide any further information at this stage.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the question of the size of the Army. It is important not to impute to the Chief of Defence Staff anything he did not say. My understanding is that he did not make some simple, binary arithmetical comparison—big is good, smaller is bad. In fact, I think in his remarks he reflected exactly what we established and identified in the integrated review, reflected in the Command Paper and then fleshed out with Future Soldier. Some very interesting comments have been made in the House about this issue, but I was particularly impressed by two contributions in the debate on the humble Address, one by the noble Lord, Browne of Ladyton, and the other by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton of Richmond. They were incisive and analytical and I commend these speeches to your Lordships.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
With the greatest respect to the noble Lord, who, as he knows, I admire hugely, I disagree with his analysis. With the biggest investment since the end of the Cold War, the Army will reorganise; it will re-equip to become more integrated, active and lethal as a high-tech force fit for the threats of the future, not the battles of the past. As people increasingly recognise, what we do with the Army and how we do it in the future is not based simply on boots on the ground, but on a much wider understanding of how we are smarter and cleverer—finding better equipment and using technology. In that respect, we can operate in a much more agile and resilient fashion.
I say to the noble Lord that the nature of the conflict in Ukraine is certainly arduous and worrying; I think everyone accepts that it will be of long duration. But I would also say to him that the UK has been a singular contributor in leading the charge to help Ukraine defend itself, and we welcome those within and outwith NATO supporting that endeavour. The NATO summit on 28 June will be an important occasion because NATO will agree the new strategic concept and set the direction of the alliance for the next decade. Much of that will be informed by what has happened with this barbarous and illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
Lord Balfe (Con)
My Lords, I shall use three quotes from yesterday’s debate. First, Tobias Ellwood, who put down the Question, said:
“But Russia is not losing and Ukraine is not winning”. ––[Official Report, Commons, 20/6/22; col. 556.]
Secondly, the new head of the Armed Forces said that we must be
“fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle”.
Thirdly, the Secretary-General of NATO said that this could take years. I should like to ask the Minister: where are we actually going? Last week in the Duma, there was discussion about the Suwałki Gap, the strip of land running between Lithuania and Poland that links Kaliningrad to Belarus. What happens if the Russians decide to force the Suwałki Gap? They would not be fighting Ukraine, but the Lithuanians are very anxious to implement all the sanctions and Kaliningrad is becoming more or less isolated. I should like to think that our forward planning stretches beyond Boris Johnson and the end of next week, and that we are looking seriously at ways in which this conflict could be gradually edged-up in a way that it would be very difficult for NATO to respond to with unity.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I do not agree with my noble friend’s somewhat dismissive commentary on how the UK has responded to this. I think, by universal assent, the UK has played a pivotal role in coming to the aid of and supporting Ukraine, which knows that it has in us a solid and reliable friend. I say to my noble friend that within the whole Baltic area there has been a bolstering of the enhanced forward presence, to which the UK has been an important contributor. That has been a necessary response. As I said to the noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, what we are witnessing is quite simply an illegal and barbarous invasion by President Putin of an innocent sovereign state.
It is interesting that, within the Baltic area, Sweden and Finland now seek to join NATO. I assume they are motivated by the sense of comfort and reassurance that the alliance will bring them if they are able to become members. That is a matter for hope and optimism.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, I wish to associate myself with the expressions of gratitude to our Armed Forces and our veterans. Yesterday in the other place, Leo Docherty, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence People and Veterans, in answering this Question spoke about the Government’s
“absolute resolve to meet our NATO commitments”
and said that they are doing that by delivering
“at pace the technological and military revolution necessary to make ourselves more lethal, agile and deployable around the world than ever before.”
He went on:
“For too long, the measurement of our military capability has been about men and vehicles in garrisons, rather than our ability to project power”.—[Official Report, Commons, 20/6/22; col. 558.]
The Minister knows that I think that is the right approach. Why then, on 15 June, did the MoD slip out, under cover of a Written Ministerial Statement, the Defence Artificial Intelligence Strategy and its accompanying document on the ethics of military AI? When will the Secretary of State or the Prime Minister come to Parliament to explain how this strategy will, in the words of that Statement,
“transform the culture of defence”—[Official Report, Commons, 15/6/22; col. 13WS.]
and to answer questions about it?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As ever, I appreciate the noble Lord’s interest in these matters. Indeed, the Defence Artificial Intelligence Strategy was published on 15 June. It is an important development; on artificial intelligence, we as a department want to be effective, efficient, trusted and influential. As for when there will be an opportunity to question the Secretary of State in the other place—or, for that matter, to question me in this Chamber—I will make inquiries about what the intention is for parliamentary procedure. I shall try to ascertain whether there is a likely date for a Statement. Personally, I think it would make for an interesting and very useful debate in this Chamber.
Ukraine: Weapons
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord West of Spithead
To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether the usage rates by Ukrainian forces of weapons supplied by the United Kingdom aligns with their predictions; and whether they intend to reassess (1) their supply of weapons to that country, and (2) the stockholding required by the UK’s armed forces.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, we liaise on a daily basis with Ukraine and continue to provide the defensive equipment it needs. The Defence Secretary participated in the Ukraine donor contact group yesterday and met Ukrainian government representatives. I cannot comment on Ukrainian usage rates for the equipment provided. The MoD continually reviews its stocks of weapons and ammunition to ensure that it can meet its commitment to Ukraine while ensuring that UK Armed Forces stocks are maintained.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, the usage rates by Ukraine are high because in peer-on-peer warfare that is exactly what happens. We have experience of that ourselves, historically. I am delighted that we are providing weapons to Ukraine, and we must keep doing this; indeed, we probably need to provide more. It is in everyone’s interests that that happens. My experience tells me that our stockholdings will be insufficient. There is no doubt about it. They always have been because that is the way you play games with money in the MoD. My question is one I asked on 25 May: have we let contracts with British defence firms, so that we are able to replenish our stockholdings and supply the Ukrainians at the rate that is required? When I asked this question, those contracts had not been let, and we were supplying weapons to Ukraine that had been bought by other countries in Europe because we were not producing any. We must start producing some of these weapons now, almost on a 24/7 basis.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
We keep weapon stockpile levels and requirements under constant review, and that informs our response to Ukraine. I reassure the noble Lord that we are fully engaged with industry, allies and partners. We want to ensure that all equipment granted in kind to the Ukrainian armed forces is replaced as expeditiously as possible.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
My Lords, the reality is that we dispose of far more complex weapons because they have reached the end of their shelf life than we ever fire in anger. Of course, there are only so many hours you can have a Sidewinder under a jet flying in the air, but we are much more risk averse in this area than almost any of our NATO allies. The challenge seems to be that we simply do not have the data. As we reassess our own stockpiles, can I simply ask my noble friend if she will seek to get that data from our NATO allies, rather than simply spending millions more pounds on weapons when we can get better use out of our own?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I refer my noble friend to recent activity engaged in by the Secretary of State for Defence, not least his presence yesterday, to which I referred in response to the noble Lord, Lord West. As my noble friend will be aware, a joint statement was issued yesterday by the United States Department of Defense, Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence and our own UK Ministry of Defence, which is all about how we can help Ukraine to defend its citizens. The United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have now committed to provide MLRS, with guided MLRS or—here is another mnemonic—GMLRS, which I think is the guidance system that guides the first thing. Ukraine has specifically requested this capability. Importantly, it will allow the Ukrainian armed forces to engage the invading force with accurate fire at ranges of approximately 70 kilometres.
Lord Selkirk of Douglas (Con)
My Lords, has the Minister been made aware of the Prime Minister’s statement on 6 June, which stated:
“He set out the significant new support the Government is providing, including long-range multiple launch rocket systems to strike Russian artillery positions which are being used to bombard Ukrainian towns”?
Has this promise been fulfilled?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I partially covered my noble friend’s question in my earlier response, because it is these multiple launch rocket systems that we have committed to provide. The training has already begun for these. The objective is that, along with the contribution of the United States and Germany, we will deploy these systems urgently and without delay.
Lord Houghton of Richmond (CB)
Can I press the Minister on the original Question? It is not a matter of what allies have, or what our stockpiles are and the degree to which they have been run down. What the House needs to be reassured of is whether the MoD is conducting a review of the contractual linkages between the MoD and the defence supply base to ensure that we have the agility to sustain our war-fighting resilience—because it is our war-fighting resilience that has historically been most run down and is potentially the most vulnerable part of our overall national military capability.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I say to the noble and gallant Lord that, as previously indicated, the department is fully engaged with industry, because we want to ensure that all equipment granted in kind to the Ukrainian armed forces is replaced as expeditiously as possible, but also that, by continually managing and reviewing our own UK stock of weapons and munitions, we ensure that while we meet that commitment to Ukraine, our UK Armed Forces’ stocks are sufficiently maintained.
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
My Lords, I have but modest experience, having worked in the logistics department of the Armed Forces, but I get closer to my noble friend Lord West’s experience that stockpiles were always brought down to the minimum credible level rather than having any serious surpluses. Those stockpiles are being used up, but surely they need to be brought to the pre-war levels. Let us be realistic: the world will be a less safe place at the end of this war. We will almost certainly have an expanded NATO with a Russian border, so, if anything, surely the stockpiles should be expanded. The Government should have made these decisions by now, so will the stockpiles be brought to pre-war levels, and will they indeed be expanded in light of the new threat?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I am unable to provide anything more specific to the noble Lord in addition to what I have previously said. I cannot offer a detailed inventory of what is currently in storage in terms of stockpiles for the UK, or a complete inventory of what is being released to Ukraine. What I can reassure the House about is that the department is constantly engaged in reviewing these stock levels, having regard to both our commitment to support Ukraine and our obligation to make sure we can defend the United Kingdom. As the noble and gallant Lord asked earlier, we are fully engaged with industry.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, as well as supplying weapons, Royal Air Force Typhoons are flying regular NATO missions over countries adjacent to Ukraine, in addition to their UK QRA and defence of the Falklands tasks. What steps are Her Majesty’s Government taking to increase the size or number of Typhoon squadrons in order to cope with this exceedingly additional commitment?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I can confirm to the noble and gallant Lord that we have been deploying elements of all three armed services. That includes bulking up the presence in Cyprus, because we have four additional Typhoons there. We are doing that within our existing commitments, and we are satisfied that that is a balance we can reconcile not just in terms of crews needing to be rested, recuperated and returned to duty but in terms of meeting both our obligations to our NATO allies on the wider safety of Europe and our own internal obligations.
Lord Reid of Cardowan (Lab)
My Lords, just to be clear, referring back to my noble friend Lord West’s Question, the Minister has said three times that the MoD is “fully engaged”. I am absolutely sure that the MoD is fully engaged; it always is. But the question is: have any contracts been let?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I do not have such specific information before me to give to the noble Lord, but I will make inquiries. If there is any illumination I can provide to him, I will happily do that.
Lord Hayward (Con)
My Lords, I welcome the contribution that the British Government, along with the Americans, have made to support Ukraine in terms of the provision of arms. I understand that the leaders of Italy, France and Germany are currently in Ukraine. Could the Government please ensure that they continue to press those Governments to provide a reasonable level of arms rapidly to the Ukrainians? They appear to be failing to do so, and if Ukraine is weaker, countries such as Poland and Lithuania will rightly fear for their positions.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The UK takes the view that it is all hands to the pump. We welcome the contribution from any nations which think they can assist Ukraine. The visit to Kyiv by the countries to which the noble Lord referred is welcome, and it is a positive step. Whatever they are able to do to augment the support being given to Ukraine to defend itself is to be welcomed.
Ukraine: UK Military Support
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 5 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, I appear on behalf of myself.
With the leave of the House, I shall now repeat in the form of a Statement the Answer given by my honourable friend the Minister for Defence People and Veterans in another place. The Statement is as follows:
“The United Kingdom strongly condemns the appalling, unprovoked attack President Putin has launched on the people of Ukraine. We stand with Ukraine and continue to support its right to be a sovereign, independent and democratic nation.
The United Kingdom and our allies and partners are responding decisively to provide military and humanitarian assistance. This includes weapons that help Ukraine’s heroic efforts to defend itself. We have sent more than 6,900 new anti-tank missiles, known as NLAWs, a further consignment of Javelin anti-tank missiles, eight air defence systems, including Starstreak anti-air missiles, 1,360 anti-structure munitions and 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosives.
As Ukraine steadies itself for the next attack, the UK is stepping up efforts to help its defence. As we announced on 26 April, we will be sending 300 more missiles, anti-tank systems, innovative loitering munitions, armoured fighting vehicles, and anti-ship systems to stop shelling from Russian ships.
The UK has confirmed £1.3 billion of new funding for military operations and aid to Ukraine. This includes the £300 million the PM announced on 3 May for electronic warfare equipment, a counterbattery radar system, GPS-jamming equipment and thousands of night vision devices. The MoD retains the Humanitarian Assistance Task Force at readiness, with a headquarters at 48 hours’ readiness and the remainder of the force at five days’ notice to move should their assistance be requested.
The UK has pledged £220 million of humanitarian aid for Ukraine, including ‘granting in kind’ to the Ukraine armed forces over 64,000 items of medical equipment from the MoD’s own supplies. We are ensuring that the UK and our security interests are secured and supporting our many allies and partners, especially Ukraine.”
Lord Coaker (Lab)
My Lords, we remain united with the Government in their condemnation of Russia and the actions that they have taken so far in meeting this threat. Once again, we also recognise the bravery of the people of Ukraine. We therefore fully support the Government’s recent announcement of the additional £1.3 billion of aid and, with that, the extra military equipment that they are providing. Can the Minister outline what the additional £1 billion of that £1.3 billion is to be spent on, and can she give any further detail about the inquiry into UK components ending up in Russian weapons?
In the light of the war in Ukraine and the provision of this military equipment, have the Government reconsidered any of their existing defence plans? Surely it is now time for a rethink on, for example, cuts to the number of soldiers—something that the head of the Army himself said only this week when he said that the British Army is too small.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord. I indicated in the Statement some of the equipment that is going out; I understand that this will include UAV systems to provide logistical support to isolated forces and that new, specialised Toyota Land Cruisers will be going out. I offer to write to the noble Lord with a more specific list of information. In relation to the use of equipment, we supply it to Ukraine and it is for the Ukrainian armed forces to then determine how they deploy and use it. However, our supply of that equipment is to enable Ukraine to defend itself.
On the size of the military, I refer the noble Lord to the integrated review, the comprehensive spending review and, importantly, Future Soldier, which detailed how we envisage the shape of the military in forthcoming years and was signed off at the highest levels in the MoD. It is interesting to reflect on how the conflict in Ukraine has unfolded. It has been clear that the might of Russia in terms of numbers of soldiers has actually been of questionable effect when, in Ukraine, an ably trained, very professional, well-equipped force, armed with intelligence, has been able to be very effective in its defence. These are complicated matters but it is perfectly clear that mere numbers are not sufficient.
Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)
My Lords, these Benches also support the action that the Government have taken so far and regret the size of the army and wish that it could be increased—although we may regret the bidding war that sometimes seems to go on between the Foreign Secretary and the Secretary of State for Defence, which seems to be slightly more about domestic than international politics. Can the Minister tell the House whether the medical equipment and other supplies that are being sent to Ukraine are being adequately replaced so that we can ensure security of supply at this end? Will she be able to make a Statement at some point on the security arrangements which the Prime Minister has just agreed with Sweden?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As the noble Baroness will be aware, extensive supplies of medical equipment have been dispatched and I understand that these are proving of huge support and assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces. As to what is currently in the system and what is still to come, I have no detail before me but I undertake to write to the noble Baroness with more specific information.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, this is going to be a long haul. Is not one of the best immediate ways of helping Ukraine to cut off the billions that are still flowing into the Russian exchequer to help Putin finance child murder in the Ukraine area, and is not the quickest way to do that to find other sources for the millions of barrels of oil a day and to increase gas, which would immediately reduce prices and undermine the Russian position? Are we, as a coalition, making real efforts to press the producers who have available flowing capacity to do that, because clearly the EU is divided and the UN is paralysed, for reasons that we well know?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I do not in any way diminish the importance of my noble friend’s question. It is somewhat wide of my responsibilities but I am certain that the matters to which he refers, some of which have already been addressed not just by the United Kingdom Government but by the EU and other global partners, are certainly having some effect on the Russian economy. As for the more specific matters to which he refers, these are matters for consideration by the Government as a whole. However, in the daily consideration of the situation in Ukraine, every option continues to be looked at, and I am sure that my noble friend’s words will resonate.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, Churchill famously said in his Fulton, Missouri speech that the thing that the Russians despise more than anything else, as he learned in the Second World War, is weakness. As we speak, we are reducing the size of our Army and cutting the numbers of our ships and aircraft. Does that sound to my noble friend like strength or weakness?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As I have indicated to the Chamber before, in the light of the settlement that was made for defence and which was examined in detail under the comprehensive spending review, defence has enjoyed an extent of resource which has been unknown for many years. As my noble friend will be aware, there is a very ambitious shipbuilding project under way for naval craft, not least Type 26s and Type 31s and the other embryonic versions of more sophisticated destroyers and frigates. We are in a good place. As I have said before, there will be differing views of what constitutes an effective military in future warfare. As was clear from Future Soldier, all the evidence shows exactly what the shape of that needs to be. Quite simply, with technology we can do a lot more with fewer people.
Lord Hylton (CB)
My Lords, do the Government agree that Russia is breaking international law by blocking the export of Ukrainian food across the Black Sea? Will they seek agreement on how to make such exports possible?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I have noted the noble Lord’s observations. These are matters which fall under the responsibility of my colleagues in government, but I am sure that his comments will be noted.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
When we make available equipment of the kind described by the Minister, do we continue to offer training in the use of that equipment?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I reassure the noble Lord that we have offered training to ensure that, when they get the equipment, the Ukrainian armed forces can use it effectively. We are all aware of how effective that response has been and its impact.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
Are the Government confident that the supply of western military equipment, which is so desperately needed by the Ukrainians, is getting through, given the recent Russian activity in bombing supply lines such as railways?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble Lord will understand that, for reasons of operational security, I cannot comment in detail on supply routes, but we are satisfied that the supplies are reaching the Ukrainian armed forces.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
My Lords, Russia wants to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. If it is successful, it will be disastrous for the West in areas such as food security but, to do so, it needs a strong Black Sea fleet. Having suffered recent losses, it is unable to reinforce its Black Sea fleet because of the Montreux convention, which limits military movement into the Black Sea. I simply ask my noble friend what reassurances the UK has had from Turkey, which is effectively the custodian of the Montreux convention, that Russia will not be allowed to reinforce its Black Sea fleet.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
We routinely engage with Turkey on regional matters, at all levels. Recent engagements have included the Montreux convention and vessel movements through the Bosphorus strait during the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
Lord Houghton of Richmond (CB)
Given the risks of escalation in the military elements of the conflict in Ukraine, it is quite clear that any further military aid will have to be less than decisive. In policy terms, therefore, is a prolonged and mutually self-hurting stalemate between Ukraine and Russia probably the best that can be achieved in the current circumstances?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My honourable friend in the other place used the adjective “attritional” to describe the conflict. That is probably pretty accurate. We are very clear about the magnitude of what the Ukrainian armed forces are contending with. Our role, along with that of other NATO partners and other global allies such as the United States and the EU, is to support the Ukrainian armed forces in their endeavour. I am afraid this will not be resolved in the near future. It is important that, as a country, we do everything with our allies to support what is right and to ensure that Ukraine is assisted in seeing off what is wrong.
Lord Hunt of Kings Heath (Lab)
My Lords, is the noble Baroness seriously saying that, in the light of current experience in Ukraine, there is to be no fundamental review of our defence capacity?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
We always keep our capacity under review. The integrated review, with the comprehensive spending review, have laid out the strategic direction for defence in this country. We constantly review threat and commitment, and constantly assess what we require to discharge that role. That is kept under constant surveillance.
Ukraine Update
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 6 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, first, I say again to the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, how much I appreciate the tone of their contributions. As I have observed before, it is extremely important that the tremendous contribution coming from the United Kingdom to support Ukraine is seen externally as an absolutely united endeavour. I express my appreciation to both the noble Lord and the noble Baroness.
The noble Lord asked what further assistance is coming from the UK. The Statement that my right honourable friend the Secretary of State gave to the Commons on Monday detailed a lot of the information that your Lordships wanted. I observe that, as your Lordships are aware, there has been very close engagement between the United Kingdom and Ukraine. I understand that there are conversations in some form or another almost on a daily basis, as we listen to what Ukraine wants, what it needs and how we as a country can, either bilaterally or in concert with our allies and partners, try to provide that.
It was interesting that, yesterday, at the meeting in Germany, the Secretary of State met US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Ukraine Defence Minister Reznikov, and representatives from nearly 40 other countries to collectively discuss Ukraine’s military needs. Our allies thanked the UK for its leadership in securing key military assistance to date. All countries agreed to continue discussions on an enduring basis. This goes some way towards explaining how we approach this. We can do a lot bilaterally but I think the real impact is from what we do in concert. I wish to reassure your Lordships that that is at the forefront for NATO member states.
In relation to what further equipment we are giving, the Secretary of State, when he made his Statement, was asked about the Brimstone missile. He mentioned that we had, in 2020-21, agreed in principle to develop and sell a maritime variant of the Brimstone missile. Ukraine recently asked for a longer-range ground attack missile, and the Government have been exploring if existing stocks of Brimstone could be released for such purposes. At the time of my right honourable friend’s Statement, we thought that some time might be required to realise that aim—the request from Ukraine—and that that would then give the Defence Secretary an opportunity to return to update the House on sending Ukraine this new capability. I am pleased to say that our technical staff—here I wish to pay tribute to the tremendous calibre of expertise within the MoD, which has absolutely been on display in stellar form in our response to the situation in Ukraine—have had quicker successes adapting and providing the system. Instead of a further Oral Statement before Prorogation, I can inform the House that the UK will now provide Ukraine with Brimstone missiles. We will update the House on future developments and, in the meantime, we will continue to provide briefings. Obviously, Prorogation intervenes, but as Defence Minister in this House I will endeavour to keep Members up to date with developments.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, also raised the issue of Sweden and Finland. Although not members of NATO currently, these are very important partner states of NATO and valued friends of the United Kingdom. We take their interests very seriously and would wish to support them as friends and allies. In relation to their NATO application, it is obviously their decision how they process that and deal with it. We work closely with them already in the JEF partnership, which, as your Lordships will know, is a very effective alliance of like-minded states operating in the Baltic. There is total interest in these two countries by the United Kingdom and a desire to support them in every way we can.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, made the interesting observation that, in a paradoxical way, Russia has managed to strengthen NATO. That is an astute, perceptive and absolutely accurate analysis. President Putin’s appalling, unjustified and illegal invasion of another sovereign country has seen the reasons he adduced for this, and the very threat he said he was frightened of, fortify and intensify before his very eyes. Of course, it was never a threat, because NATO is a defensive alliance, but he has seen the potency of what happens when leaders of countries, and countries themselves, appalled at what someone else does, band together. They want to offer support and do the right thing, and that is what we have seen very much in evidence in the response to the situation Ukraine.
An important point was made by the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, about whether there is a threat that Russia may seek out targets in the West. We have been clear from the beginning that we would be consistent in supporting Ukraine. It is not a NATO member but it is a friend of the United Kingdom. We had already been involved, for several years, in helping, training and providing advice to Ukraine. Quite simply, the UK and our allies and partners are providing the tools for it to defend itself against a brutal and unjustified Russian invasion. Once weapons have been donated, their use is a matter for Ukraine, which has a right to defend itself by targeting legitimate military objectives. That is the business of Ukraine in defending itself against a completely illegal invasion and is a necessary response. That is why countries such as the United Kingdom, together with our international partners—not least our NATO partners—have been as one in responding to this. I think that has given President Putin cause for thought.
I was also asked about the logistical support that the United Kingdom is able to provide. It was a very welcome outcome of the second international donor conference—which took place on 31 March this year and was attended by 35 international partners—that we have offered to conduct logistics operations to support the delivery of donations from partner nations. That is very important support that the UK is providing, and it is received very positively by our partners.
A question was also raised about the discussions taking place in NATO. As I said earlier, the whole raison d’être of the meeting in Germany yesterday was to ensure that the critical discussions being prosecuted by the Defence Ministers of the member states were focused on both what we need to do at the moment in responding to the challenge in Ukraine and what the posture should be for the future. These are under very active consideration and are important questions to ask.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the matter of the Foreign Secretary’s statement and her view about warplanes going to Ukraine. I can say that we are working with our allies to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself. I cannot comment on specifics, but we and many other western partners are now providing longer-range weapons systems to help counter the indiscriminate artillery fire that the Russian armed forces have been raining down on besieged Ukrainian cities. As I said earlier, the UK is taking a leading role in co-ordinating the delivery of military aid. It is important that we continue to listen to Ukraine and assess what stage the conflict has got to and what is needed to facilitate the response, and work with our allies to both analyse and reflect on what is needed and then deliver that.
On the matter of budget, as your Lordships will be aware, and as I have frequently observed from this Dispatch Box, the UK has a very good record of contributing to NATO. We have consistently met our 2% of GDP, and sometimes we have been above that. We are the most important contributor to NATO in Europe. That is a significant position, which we seek to maintain. In so far as our indigenous defence budget is concerned, we have had what I think has been universally regarded as a very good settlement from the spending review; it certainly enables us to fund the immediate needs and our planned priorities. But of course, as we look to the medium and longer term, we shall constantly do that through the optics of what we think we need and the resource package that may be required.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, raised the matter of humanitarian aid. I have indicated what we have been doing on the military front, and I have a summary here of our role in lethal and non-lethal military support. We have gifted approximately £200 million in aid to Ukraine, which we propose will grow to £500 million. On humanitarian aid, we have supported about £400 million, including £220 million which will be used to save lives and protect people inside the country and the wider region, and £174 million in economic support to bolster the Ukrainian economy and reduce Ukraine’s reliance on Russian gas imports. We have also contributed £25 million from the Conflict, Security and Stability Fund to support the payment of salaries for the Ukrainian armed forces.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, raised the matter of the situation Russia finds itself in. It is important to reflect on the reality of what has unfolded on the ground and what President Putin’s projected plan was—quite simply, the two have not matched up. What he thought would be a simple and short-lived incursion into Ukraine has been anything but. Such information as we have been able to secure—which is difficult to do—is very interesting. There is a now deleted post on Russian social media site VK from pro-Kremlin media outlet Readovka which claimed on 22 April 2022 that Russia’s defence ministry stated at a closed briefing that it had lost 13,414 soldiers in Ukraine, plus another 7,000 missing, and 116 were reportedly killed aboard the Russian cruiser “Moskva”, with 100-plus still missing.
All that is a reflection of two things: the extent to which this is proving to be a very bitter conflict for Russia, and—almost more importantly—it is a most appalling waste of lives, many of them young lives, and an appalling legacy of President Putin to leave families in Russia grieving lost family members and friends, who have faced such an appalling prospect in being committed to this barbaric incursion into Ukraine. That indicates that the situation for Russia is much grimmer than President Putin would ever wish to concede.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, asked, how long we will keep this going. We will provide support for as long as it takes. There will be and are conversations with the EU. We look at Moldova very carefully, and it is something we consider with our allies and partners.
Baroness Finlay of Llandaff (CB)
My Lords, today I was on a call with the Ukrainian Culture Minister, who was describing how the Russians had been systematically trying to destroy cultural assets and had been taking and burning books in the places they took over. They are actively destroying that whole Ukrainian heritage. In her response, the Minister has pointed out the danger to civilians there, many of them women and children. Hundreds, it seems, are still waiting for their visas and permission to travel under the Homes for Ukraine scheme. In many of these families, one family member has not had permission to travel but others have. I do not expect the Minister to be able to answer that point specifically today because it is outside her remit, but I ask her to make representations to our Home Secretary and to the Minister for Refugees that the situation is intolerable and must be rectified urgently. The number of people queuing today at the hub in Portcullis House wanting to raise individual cases that they have been contacted about was testament to the fact that we are not managing our promise to provide shelter to these refugees with the intention originally laid out in the Statement.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Baroness, who raises an important issue which resonates across the House. The information I have is that as of 20 April 2022, the UK visa schemes have issued 71,800 visas via the family and sponsorship schemes. I appreciate that many will regard that pace as too slow. The noble Baroness has clearly described the frustration and anxiety of those who feel they are not getting the response they seek. I certainly undertake to relay her concerns to my colleague in the Home Office. I suggest that a correspondence be entered into between the Home Office and the noble Baroness.
Lord Lee of Trafford (LD)
My Lords, may I ask the Minister about the very sad situation with Ukrainian casualties, both military and civil? Our medical teams during the Afghan situation developed very specialised skills in this area post-conflict. The Statement refers to our sending 10 pallets of medical equipment. Has Britain offered any more help on the medical side? Has there been any offer of our willingness to bring Ukrainian military casualties to this country or to send more medical teams to Ukraine to help with the pretty ghastly situation on the ground there?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
Part of the humanitarian assistance to date has included granting in kind to the Ukraine Armed Forces medical equipment from the MoD’s supplies. This includes items for combat medical needs, field dressings, bandages, tourniquets, splints and chest seals. I understand that the possibility of our offering more assistance from the UK end is being looked at. I do not have any further information on that, but I undertake to make inquiries and report to the noble Lord.
Earl Attlee (Con)
My Lords, I offer my support for everything the Ministry of Defence, the Secretary of State and other government departments are doing. Is the Minister aware of one difficulty: the paucity of briefing that we are receiving? This means that we will know what the media want us to know, but not what Ministers and officials need to tell us and can tell us. This is important, because without these briefings we cannot speak with authority outside the House and be more effective in supporting the policy, while not ignoring our constitutional duties.
Does the Minister also agree that it is premature to consider our defence expenditure at this point without knowing what the outcome of the conflict will be? On the point about resupply made by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, I hope the Minister will be able to state that she will not hesitate to increase the production of defence materiel as required and without any artificial constraints.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
First, I say to my noble friend that I certainly would wish to co-operate in every way I can with providing information and briefing to your Lordships. With the intervention of the Recess and imminent Prorogation, that has logistically proved a little difficult, but I undertake to resume these briefings and hope that provides reassurance to my noble friend.
On the budget, as I said earlier, we constantly review the immediate need and the potentially committed expenditure that we have embarked on. We also look at the medium to longer-term interest. That is what we will be doing, because critical to that—my noble friend is quite right—is what we think the implications are for this sustained and continuing contribution from the UK. Regarding what has been supplied already and what will be supplied, I reassure him that we do not compromise our core reserves—our stores—that we need for our national security and the other global contributions we make. We keep a careful eye on that.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
My Lords, I have three brief questions for the Minister. First, the Statement says:
“The next three weeks are key.”
Will the Minister outline in what way that is meant, given that this war has continued for much longer than we had originally thought it would? Secondly, what is the Government’s current assessment of Russian capability and intention to occupy the whole of the south coast of Ukraine, thus creating the possibility of a landlocked Ukraine state? Thirdly, in respect of the impressive range of equipment that is outlined in this Statement, do the Government have any concerns about the West’s ability to get it through to the Ukrainians who are going to use it? As I understand it, Russia has begun to target things like railway lines, which might well be the means by which this equipment is transferred from the West to the Ukrainians, who are fighting so bravely.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I think that when the Secretary of State referred to the next three weeks, he had in mind what has been a clearly discernible change of approach by the Russian leadership and military. That has involved two things. It has involved a new command structure, which indicates that the previous structure was not working. It also indicates that Russia realises that it is going to have to consolidate its resources and it therefore wants to focus on the eastern part of the country. That is a critical part of the conflict, because it is very clear that Russia is determined—we see it from the activity already taking place in towns and cities within that area—to try to strike this land bridge down through the south-eastern part of the country. That is what the Ukrainians are determined to resist, and it is what the UK—with all our allies and partners—is determined to support Ukraine in repelling.
On the issue of the next three weeks, we all know that President Putin has set his May Day parade day as an iconic, tokenistic opportunity to—no doubt—declare how successful he considers this illegal war has been. That would always raise an expectation that he might be prepared to escalate activity, and therefore there is a critical need to anticipate and respond if that is the case. This is a critical part of the conflict, but I think it is clear from the response in the support for Ukraine that the Ukrainians know that they have a lot of friends, and they now have a lot of really substantial equipment and weaponry to help them in the defence of their country.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, I very much welcome the Statement and the support which the Government are giving to Ukraine. I was very grateful to hear the assurance from the Minister that the kinetic capabilities of our own forces are being protected. I hope that industry is rising to the challenge, which it obviously must be facing. One thing which was not mentioned was the impact of economic sanctions on the fighting capability of the Russians. Has any assessment been made of those sanctions as they affect the military capabilities of the Russians, both immediately and in the longer term?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble and gallant Lord has asked an interesting question. There is no question that the broad mechanism of sanctions applied both by individual countries and in concert by united nations is having an impact on Russia. I do not think that there is any question about that. The extent to which that will impact on the Russians’ military endeavour and their capacity to, quite simply, pay salaries or fund equipment or buy new equipment is probably much more difficult to anticipate, but it is a very interesting question. As time passes, we might begin to get a clearer picture of what this means for the Russian military endeavour.
We all understand at the moment that what we are seeing are, quite simply, signs of the failure of that Russian endeavour, because there have been clear indications of failure. Part of that might be down to incompetence and ineptitude on the field, but some of it might be increasingly down to inability to keep supplies coming, logistics flowing and the normal support necessary to sustain armed forces in conflict. It is an interesting point, and I will take it back to the department. If I come across any further information, I shall share it with the noble and gallant Lord.
Lord Pickles (Con)
My Lords, it is clear that getting the necessary equipment through to the Ukrainians and dealing with humanitarian help is of the first order. However, I would like to ask my noble friend the Minister a question which is of the second order but is likely to become increasingly important. She will recall that one of the reasons that the totalitarian regimes started to collapse in the late 1980s and early 1990s was because their blood-soaked dictators were unable to keep the truth from their populations. Things have changed in the last few years. There may be censorship in Russia but, with the growth of the digital economy, there simply are not enough secret policemen to monitor the web. Part of the decline of Russia as an economy is that the amount of material out there in Russian has diminished. While the views of what is happening can come through from western sources in English and other European languages, they are not coming through in Russian. Will my noble friend see that the United States and our European allies look at trying to get as much information out there in basic Russian? It is certainly my view that the Russian people are a noble and a great people, and they have a right to know what is the new barbarity being done in their name.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I entirely agree with my noble friend. One of the great frustrations of this whole tragedy has been the stranglehold that President Putin has placed on the dissemination of information in Russia. It is a stranglehold. Outlets have been closed down and criminal law has been invoked to threaten people who share information or appear to be disloyal to the state. My noble friend is correct that trying to reinform the Russian people with the correct version of what is happening is clearly an important and desirable objective. He makes a good point about language. One of the challenges has been not so much the language but just finding a conduit to get the information through. There are some signs that sadly because of these appalling tragedies that have been befalling Russian military personnel, their families now are aware of that. Their families are hurt, sad and in many cases maybe angry and frustrated and not understanding why this has happened and why they have had their own family members sacrificed. There is the possibility that more information will begin to spread through Russia. My noble friend makes an important point and I will certainly bear it in mind.
Lord Scriven (LD)
My Lords, my noble friend Lady Smith asked a question at the start that the Minister did not answer. Are the comments of Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, on providing fighter jets to Ukraine the official policy of Her Majesty’s Government? If not, why is she making such statements which, in such a sensitive situation, could have very dangerous consequences?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I apologise; I endeavoured to respond to the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Smith. The Foreign Secretary has expressed a view and of course is perfectly entitled to have it. My role as a Defence Minister is to explain how we in the MoD are working with our NATO partners and our allies and how we are trying to co-ordinate delivery. At the end of it all, as I said earlier, in conjunction with Ukraine we are trying to work out and supply not just what it needs but to do so when it needs it. Part of that is reflected in the response that I was able to give in explaining to the House that we can now confirm that Brimstone will be provided. That is something that the Ukrainians specifically wanted because of its capacity.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
One of the things that the Ukrainians really do need is the capability to clear up the incredible amount of unexploded ordinance, some of which has been seeded deliberately by the Russians as they remove themselves from around Kyiv. We should be proud of the Halo Trust, which has gone back to Ukraine and has over 40 locally employed people who have been doing that work, even during some of the dreadful violence that has been going on. I know the Government are supporting them. Apart from anything else, the trust needs funding to pay the people who work for it and who do this dangerous, difficult but much-needed work.
The second thing the trust needs is an appreciation by the Ukrainian Government of the importance of certain senior people avoiding national conscription to other jobs. It might be helpful if our Government, in conjunction with the Halo Trust, argued that the Ukrainian Government should allow these key people to this work. They are experts who have been doing it for eight years in that country, in the most dangerous of conditions, supported by this organisation. Can the noble Baroness, perhaps on their behalf, make some of these arguments?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I am indebted to the noble Lord for a perceptive contribution. He is quite right that that has emerged as an issue in the area; indeed, it was referred to in the other place. My right honourable friend the Secretary of State, Ben Wallace, said that we were looking at it to see what we could do to help. I will take those comments back to my department and will see whether we can produce something more positive.
Lord McDonald of Salford (CB)
My Lords, we have seen the shortcomings of diplomatic efforts focused on the person of President Putin. We can hope that after his re-election, President Macron will recalibrate. However, contacts with the Russian authorities are important through conflict, so could the Minister please tell your Lordships’ House what the main channel is now for contact between Her Majesty’s Government and Moscow?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
In respect of diplomatic channels, that question is probably better responded to by my noble friend Lord Ahmad. However, it is very difficult to sustain normal diplomatic relations with a country where such appalling things have been happening, at the instigation of that country. There has to be a proper acknowledgement by the UK and other countries that may feel similarly minded that we are appalled by what President Putin is doing, and it is therefore very difficult to maintain a diplomatic relationship. What I would say is that the Russian embassy remains open in London and the UK embassy remains open in Moscow. On a defence level, we endeavour to maintain some kind of dialogue with the Ministry of Defence in Russia because that is for the purposes of risk and escalation management and trying to support broader HMG efforts to ensure an internationally accepted negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict. We will continue to make efforts to maintain these communication channels but that is a two-way process, and I have to make it clear that the parameters of that discourse are obviously pretty narrow; they are defence related.
Ukraine: Defence in a Competitive Age
Baroness Goldie Excerpts(4 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper and declare my interest as a serving member of the Army Reserve and chair of the Reserve Forces Review 2030.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine shows more than ever that the UK must be ready to defend and deter threats emanating from our adversaries in a deteriorating global security environment. That illegal war validates both the integrated review and the Command Paper’s commitments that defence will strengthen its deterrents, become increasingly adaptable and integrated with partners, and improve its ability to intervene and fight decisively. We will continue to review our capabilities and readiness levels accordingly.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
I am delighted that we will keep our capabilities under review, but does my noble friend feel that we have the balance of investment correct between sub-threshold capabilities, such as cyber, and warfighting capabilities, such as tanks, planes, ships and armaments? Secondly, while I am sure that there are many lessons to be learned from the war in Ukraine, is one not the value of a reserve? The Ukrainian reserve is three times the size of its regular forces. Here in the United Kingdom our reserve is one-third of the size of our regular forces. Should that change?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
To answer the first part of my noble friend’s question, he will be aware that the defence budget will grow from £40 billion in 2019-20 to £47.6 billion in 2024-25. That significant increase since the start of this Government puts flesh to the vision and the reform and renewal proposals of the Command Paper. I think the balance is correct, but as I have indicated we constantly review that balance. He is aware of Royal Navy shipbuilding plans, the future combat air system and the new proposals for equipment for the Army. That all reflects a very healthy resilience to deal with threat, however it arises. On the matter of reservists, I pay tribute to my noble friend, not just for the role he performs but for his excellent contribution in the paper he produced on how we might reform the reserves. This is enabling the Army to move to a much more flexible, resilient whole-force strength, which, including the integrated reserve, will be over 100,000 personnel from 2025.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, the defence Command Paper had two major errors, caused by one underlying problem. It was wrong to pay off ships, aircraft and people—numbers of Army personnel—for jam tomorrow. Sadly, the enemy has a vote, and he might not want to fight us in 15 years’ time; it might be tomorrow. The second problem was that we have not invested properly in the whole area of hard kill—kinetic kill—as was mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton. Yes, we need cyber, AI and quantum, but people are being killed in Ukraine at the moment by hard kill, not laptops. The reason for all of this was a lack of funding. No matter what fine words are said, not enough has been spent on defence for some years. Could the Minister go back to the Secretary of State and say that, in the final analysis, with the possibility of war right upon us, now is the time to spend money on the Armed Forces? It is crackpot not to do that.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My Lords, I have huge respect for the noble Lord and his experience, but I disagree with his analysis of the Command Paper. Indeed, when he talks about jam tomorrow, I say look in the mirror and face the images. I argue that the budget figures that I quoted earlier to my noble friend Lord Lancaster reflect an extraordinary increase in the defence budget—I think that the noble Lord is unfamiliar with this and would have loved to have seen it when he held his former, very senior role in the Royal Navy. From what the Command Paper has outlined, it is perfectly clear what we have, what equipment we seek to acquire and how we seek to achieve agility, flexibility and resilience. We are doing that to very good effect. Everyone has been surprised at not just the swiftness but the substance of the response to help the Ukrainians in their defence of their country in this illegal war. The UK has played a strong role in that bilaterally, as have our NATO global partners. That is a matter for commendation, not scaremongering.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, given the extent of the military equipment that we have supplied to the Ukrainian Government—I heartily support that—and the possibility of supplying more such equipment, heavily hinted at in the press today, what assessment have the Government made of the impact on our stock of equipment, which of course has an effect on our capability? What steps are being taken to replace those stocks, and how will this replacement be paid for?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The MoD constantly reviews our obligations—both our primary responsibility to defend the nation and our responsibility to contribute to global security with our global partners, whether in NATO or elsewhere. We therefore constantly review what we need to achieve and discharge that role. We constantly assess what we can donate; I thank the noble Lord for his helpful comments, and know he will be aware of the generous nature of that donation, recognised not just within the United Kingdom but by Ukraine. On payment, when we come to replenish stocks, which will be necessary due to our gifts of equipment to Ukraine, that will be dealt with by the Treasury special reserve.
Lord Stirrup (CB)
My Lords, the Minister will be aware that your Lordships’ International Relations and Defence Committee has just started an inquiry into last year’s defence Command Paper. One of the issues that it will seek to test is the proposition that structure can be replaced by solutions based on science and technology. Can the Minister assure us that, when departmental representatives come before the committee, they will be able to set out a clear strategy, explaining how this can be done? I also ask the Minister whether it would not be appropriate for the Government to be slightly less self-congratulatory about the recent increases in defence expenditure, welcome though they are, since they have merely repaired part of the damage that was done in 2010 and subsequently, when our defence expenditure was 2.5% of GDP?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I did not intend to sound self-congratulatory; I was merely pointing out the facts, which are a fairly stark improvement, as the noble and gallant Lord will be aware, on what has happened in previous years, under different Governments. On his point about the Command Paper and its relevance and fitness for purpose, I argue that it outlines a very comprehensive vision to reform and renew our Armed Forces for an age of global and systemic competition, dealing with threats and situations that are increasingly new to us. I welcome the noble and gallant Lord’s committee carrying out its analysis, and I am sure that, when representatives from the MoD appear before it as witnesses, they will give of their best, as usual, and endeavour to inform and assist it in its investigation.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, the world has changed, and we, like the Germans, must change our policy. At the very moment that the Minister is speaking, we are reducing the number of our troops, ships and aircraft. We must change our policy. Does she think that it is sensible to reduce our Armed Forces capabilities at the moment, when there is war in Europe?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I demur somewhat with my noble friend’s analysis. I have outlined an extensive programme of investment that will take place over the next 10, 15 and 20 years, and I think that that has been well received within the single forces. It is seen as a commitment by the Government to the serious business of defence and discharging our roles responsibly and effectively. The new model of the Army to which he refers, under the Future Soldier proposals, will in fact create a much more agile, flexible and resilient Army, able to deal at pace with the different characters of threats, whenever and wherever they arise. This is a matter of reassurance and commendation.
Lord Coaker (Lab)
My Lords, given the new security situation in Europe following events in Ukraine, is it the case that, as David Williams, the Permanent Secretary, said to the Public Accounts Committee in February,
“the integrated review looks right to me, but we will of course want to review the calibration and our understanding of the threat and what the right response will need to be”?
So is there to be a review and what will that mean, particularly for the Army—as the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, raised—which is losing 700 warrior infantry vehicles earlier than planned, facing troop cuts and losing a third of its Challenger 2 battle tanks, if we are to potentially fight the kind of land-based conventional warfare launched by Putin?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As we understand the impact of the threat from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we will of course keep plans under review—I have indicated that and we will of course do that. We will remain threat-led; that is our raison d’être and how we operate, and we continue to review our capabilities and readiness levels accordingly. All of that is predicated on both the integrated review and the defence Command Paper. But the integrated review outlined that defence forces must prepare for more persistent global engagement and constant campaigning to counter emerging threats. So although we may not have anticipated conflict so quickly, the review recognised the threats posed by aggression from our adversaries. I remind your Lordships that the integrated review and defence Command Paper set out a year ago that the greatest nuclear, conventional military and sub-threshold threat to European security is posed by Russia.