Iran

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 10th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I understand my noble friend’s points, but the one thing that I and most of us who have been involved in foreign policy realise is that the situation is never black or white. There are always many grey areas, as is the case here. The new president has made some positive remarks, but it is important that they are translated into action. However, I can assure my noble friend and other noble Lords that we have contact with the Iranians. For example, last year at the Heart of Asia conference, as part of the discussions on Afghanistan, the Foreign Secretary met Foreign Minister Salehi in the margins of the meeting. There are therefore opportunities for discussions to take place, even at the highest level. However, in terms of restarting diplomatic relations and having an embassy—which, let us not forget, was ransacked in 2011 and where our officials and staff came under attack—it is important that we do so cautiously.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords—

[Lord Davies of Stamford]

My Lords—

Syria and the Middle East

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the subject today is the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Naturally, the focus has been on the tragedy of Syria but in the Middle East itself the foundations are shaking and all is connected.

There was apparent stability five years ago, with long-existing autocratic regimes in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. Today, only the monarchies are relatively untouched: Morocco is certainly untouched; Jordan is still relatively stable, although I refer to what the noble Baroness said about the very generous reception of the refugees by the King and people of Jordan. However, the long-suffering Palestinians in the camps in Syria will find the door closed in Jordan because of the fear of destabilising further the kingdom.

Of course, in most countries the human rights of minorities—particularly but not only Christians—are more threatened than before. Our view of recent events in the Middle East has changed radically. Today it is less fashionable to refer to the Arab spring. The mood of euphoria in Tahrir Square a year or two ago has been replaced by the demonstrations of yesterday against President Morsi, the new pharaoh. His supporters can counter only that he won the election, as if winning elections is sufficient for any democracy. The dilemma, as one experienced analyst wrote of Egypt, is that:

“With the Muslim Brotherhood the transition will be difficult: without them it will be impossible”.

The term “Arab uprising” is now more frequently used—although I understand that the US State Department is known to refer to “the Arab thing”—but all these terms suggest some uniformity in the several countries, when, as we know, one cannot attach one label to so many different national events. However, constant themes are the search for dignity, the loss of deference and the readiness to challenge authority. We refer to the current phase as transition but are puzzled as to what. This search for dignity, this loss of deference, refers not only to the Middle East but to adjoining countries such as Turkey and even, as we have seen, to Brazil.

Honest horizon-scanners should recognise that they cannot see beyond the first curve and that they failed to see the turbulence rising prior to 2008. Yes, there were fine analyses of the problems in the Arab world, such as the search for modernity; for example, successive UNDP reports on human development in the Arab world in the mid-2000s. However, the forecasters did not see the speed of events, just as they failed to see the Iranian revolution prior to 1979. This suggests that our policy planners should proceed in a spirit of humility and that we should have a certain scepticism about the likely scene in the Middle East in, say, five years’ time.

Middle East borders have become more fluid. I enjoyed the article by the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Baglan, in a recent World Today about the fluidity of those borders, which are perhaps even more artificial and certainly more recent than the borders in Africa after the Berlin Conference. But are we creating a new Turkish sphere of influence in the region? We think of the position of the Kurds, dealt a bad hand by history and now with a new dynamic not only from the Kurdistan regional government in Erbil in northern Iraq but from Turkey’s opening to the PKK. Perhaps this will ultimately be an attempt to recreate the old Ottoman Empire. Even in the previously stable Syria there is talk about an ultimate split with the Alawites perhaps retreating to their former, short-lived, post-First World War entity.

There is a danger also that conflagration may spread over national boundaries and engulf the whole region. The obvious example is Hezbollah’s incursion into Syria as a potential game-changer there and its impact on an already unstable Lebanon. There are skirmishes around the Golan Heights. President Assad may ultimately, in desperation, try to involve Israel in the conflict, but Israel has, so far, shown a masterly restraint.

It was the received wisdom up to, let us say, five years ago that Israel and Palestine were at the heart of all conflicts in the Middle East, but that dispute is surely hardly related to the current turmoil. No Israeli flags were burnt in Tahrir Square. Perhaps this is a good time, therefore, to attempt to restart negotiations. Secretary Kerry has been extremely active in his pre-negotiation phase and there are rumours of an Israeli settlement freeze—again—and the freeing of some Palestinian prisoners, but Palestinian divisions remain, as do the giant obstacles of refugees and, above all, Jerusalem. It would be interesting to have the judgment of the Government on the current prospects for the peace process.

I have said that forward planning is generally difficult; it is nowhere more so than in Syria. Commentators refer to a sea change having taken place over the past year. A year ago, the rebels were largely nationalists, secular and DIY. They have been replaced by more professional and more hard-line force, including international jihadists—hence the problem of arms supply, which so many noble Lords have touched on. It is rumoured that the US may begin to supply lethal arms within a month. The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary give the impression of wanting to follow and are edging in that direction.

The blunt truth is surely this: the readiness to intervene for humanitarian purposes is cyclical. It arose after the Chicago speech of Prime Minister Blair in 1999 and followed through with some successes in Sierra Leone and Libya, but then we had Afghanistan and Iraq and, as a result, there is no appetite now in our Parliament or in the country for such intervention. I concede, however, that the mood could change if there were a major use of chemical weapons by the regime. If we arm the rebels, we will do so by proxy and, of course, it is most unlikely that arms supply would necessarily shorten the conflict, as the Russians and Iranians would possibly only step up their own supply in response.

Amid the swirling uncertainties, what is the appropriate response of the UK and the West, with paralysis at the UN Security Council and a relative stalemate on the battlefield? The starting point is surely recognition that we have a limited influence on events. No longer can we intervene and redraw boundaries as we did under the Sykes-Picot accord. It is, I concede, hardly a moral stand to stand on the sidelines with one’s arms folded, but we must have a more cautious agenda and search for ways where we can positively help at the margins.

It is of course the humanitarian crisis which is of most immediate concern. Jordan, as has been said, is in danger of being overwhelmed by refugees. My understanding is that the UK Government have responded most impressively. It would be helpful to have an update on the extent to which other countries have failed to live up to the obligations which they undertook at Kuwait and afterwards. In the short term, the refugee crisis is likely to worsen, as the government forces appear to have a new momentum after Qusair.

Consistent with our values, we must help in democracy-building and in the protection of minorities—Christians are clearly the major losers in this conflict. Finally, at the political end, we should seek to mediate in a region where a spirit of “winner takes all” prevails; it is an existential threat for President Assad. We must recognise the interest of, and work with, both Russia and Iran, and reject the French attempt to exclude Iran from Geneva II. The latest news from Geneva is disappointing in the extreme, as Assad perhaps seeks to improve his negotiating position on the battlefield. I accept that extreme dilemmas face us in responding. I have an awful feeling that the situation will get worse before it gets better; that the Syria that emerges will, even if it is united, be more unstable; and, overall, that the Middle East will pose a greater risk to ourselves and to the interests of the West.

Morocco

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 27th June 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, my noble friend and I are both members of the Friendship Group with Morocco in our Parliament and therefore I warmly congratulate him on his initiative and, indeed, on his impeccable timing on the 800th anniversary of our diplomatic relations. I take the opportunity also to salute the excellent work here by Her Excellency the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Morocco, Her Highness Princess Lalla of Joumala Alaoui.

Like my noble friend and the noble Lords, Lord Sheikh and Lord Sharman, I shall refer to some of the key elements of our bilateral relationship, particularly in relation to the agriculture side. I invite the Minister to comment on the extent to which Moroccan agricultural exports to the UK and the European Union are constrained by the protectionism within the common agricultural policy. I shall later say a few words on the basis of what the noble Lord, Lord Sharman, has said about our cultural relationships.

No one doubts that, like other countries in the Arab world, Morocco faces huge challenges—massive illiteracy, at 44%, and fast-growing youth and graduate unemployment. I pose the intriguing question: given this background, why has there been no Arab spring or Arab uprising in Morocco? Why is Morocco apparently largely exempt from the turbulence of most of the other Arab countries? I observe that, broadly, the monarchies have largely avoided such troubles. His Majesty King Mohammed VI is a force for stability and has had the political wisdom to ensure political evolution in the direction of a constitutional monarchy and an intent to ensure that moderate Islamic forces are kept within the tent. It helps, of course, that he is a direct descendant of the Prophet.

Externally, Morocco is conscious of its role as a bridge between the north and the south of the Mediterranean. One speaks of l’exception Marocaine, which arises from its geography and history and a self-confident view of its own role—the positive role it has played in Syria and the moderating role it has played in Israel/Palestine. As to the Barcelona process of 1995, the Union for the Mediterranean, Morocco has tried to build a regional impetus but this has been hampered by the west Sahrawi question. I have visited both the Laayoune and Tindouf and seen the position at first hand. In my judgment, ultimately the Moroccan offer of a substantial autonomy will be the end. That will allow a much greater regional link between the north and south of the Mediterranean.

Morocco is the pioneer of linking with western European organisations, NATO and the Council of Europe—I am a member of the assembly—which concentrates on strengthening democratic institutions and the rule of law. Of course, there are problems: the need to reform the judiciary and fight corruption; money laundering; media freedom; the position of women; and child labour. However, by and large Morocco has played a very positive role. In 2009 the Council of Europe Assembly created a new status of Partner for Democracy, and Morocco was the first country to enjoy that status of all the neighbours of the Council of Europe.

In March I was in Rabat as part of a monitoring process, and this week the Assembly will debate the two-year monitoring process of that new status. The school report, which is being debated this week, is mainly positive, describing what the rapporteur calls a “promising start”. The Venice Commission has recognised the quality of the new constitution. The king called on the winning party in the general election to form the Government, and Morocco has acceded to many Council of Europe conventions. There is indeed a new dynamic.

Finally, I would like to say a word about our bilateral cultural relations, which have largely been covered by the noble Lord, Lord Sharman. We have tried to identify areas of mutual interest. The tradition is of course francophone, but Morocco recognises that English is the language of employability and of research. Euromonitor found there to be a 12% wage premium for anglophone Moroccans. The British Council does remarkable work on the language side, with two language schools in Morocco and a flourishing examination bureau. Programmes include youth employability.

There has been an emphasis on English teaching, both at school level and at higher education level. In passing, let me say that I hope that the Moroccan diaspora in the UK—including graduates, many of whom wish to keep links with Morocco—may be used by our country for English language teaching, both in schools and as assistants in Moroccan universities. The emphasis has been on language, governance and link-building. There are research agreements and, as the noble Lord said, bilateral university agreements, and an excellent arts programme in design, digital arts, music and film.

Overall, there are very constructive links in this field. Of course, French predominates because of the country’s history. Our overall aim is not in any way to replace French—that would be impossible in any event—but to respond to the Moroccan wish to diversify, and to encourage and support the wish to diversify in a collaborative way. Thus the wide education, commercial, scientific and cultural opportunities offered by the globalised anglophone sphere will be made available to Morocco. It is an ambitious programme for a very special and friendly country. I congratulate my noble friend on procuring this opportunity to discuss our bilateral relations.

Turkey

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 20th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend raises important points and we have raised our concerns exactly in the way that she has described. Of course, she will accept that Turkey is on a positive path to reform. A huge amount of economic and constitutional reform has been effected. As regards Europe, we are concerned about countries that are raising concerns about not opening up further chapters on accession; however, we must also remember that before these protests there were many countries which for the past three years have objected to opening up any chapters on further accession.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

There is proper concern at the increasing authoritarian tendencies by the Turkish Government and certain Islamic tendencies. However, should not the Turkish Government be given credit for their opening up to their Kurdish minority and their far greater reconciliation than any previous Government, not only in Turkey, particularly in the south-east provinces, but also in relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord makes an important point. As well as reform of the constitution generally that has assisted the Kurdish peace process, progress in that process has meant that Turkey has been heading in the right direction, and we must support and congratulate it on that.

Kenya: Kenyan Emergency

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 18th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I know that the noble Lord comes at this with great experience. If I am correct, he was there during the emergency period. It is something that I can take back but at this moment the commitment that has been made has been for this particular memorial.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, has this welcome decision led to any similar claims from other victims of our colonial past—sometimes glorious, sometimes less glorious—and do we anticipate, following the precedent of this decision, any similar claims?

[Baroness Warsi]

It is important to understand that this was not compensation agreed: it was an out-of-court settlement in a specific case involving specific claimants. I do not believe that it sets a precedent but, of course, anyone who believes that they have a case can bring it.

Iran: Election

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 17th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

That was a great plug for what the noble Viscount does. “Parliament Revealed” is an incredibly important programme. I have seen first-hand its impact in central Asia and it is certainly to be welcomed. If other countries can take advantage of that, we would support it. We can certainly say about Dr Hassan Rouhani, who has studied in the United Kingdom, that it will not be the unfamiliarity of how our system operates that will stop us from moving forwards.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, the power structure in Iran is very complex. The Revolutionary Guards remain in place and, as we have seen in Syria, the supreme leader is still there. We should not expect any abrupt changes. However, do we leave the initiative entirely with the new president when he is inaugurated in August? What initiatives are we thinking of at that time to try to normalise relations? Should we not, with our allies, consider carefully the level of representation at the inauguration of the new president?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord is right in relation to the supreme leader’s position. He will be aware that Dr Rouhani has been one of the supreme leader’s personal representatives on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council for many years. We look forward to his actions when he is sworn in as president and whether he will show that he is willing and able to resolve Iran’s most pressing problems, including the international community’s concerns about the nuclear issue. As for whether we will step up our engagement, the noble Lord will be aware that, following the attack on our embassy in November 2011, we reduced our diplomatic relations to the lowest level, although we still have arrangements in place in each other’s capitals that allow communications between the UK and Iran. He may be aware that the Swedes and Omanis assist us in allowing those communications to take place. We must be assured, first and foremost, that our staff are secure and safe and that our mission will be allowed to carry out the full range of embassy functions before we can consider how we would step up this relationship.

Kenya: Presidential Election

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd May 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

I am delighted to follow the noble Lord. He and I share a common love affair with Africa, along with the noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, and I agree with all that he has said in his analysis. The elections in Kenya were good news, in part for what did not happen. There was no repetition of the awful events of 2007 and the tribal massacres and there was an ending of what had been a muddle in Africa, where Presidents in uniform had often been the order of the day. That was the case for a number of reasons, including the new constitution, the new electoral commission, the Supreme Court and, as some might more cynically say, because two of the opponents at that time had now become the President and Vice-President. Of course, there were allegations of vote-rigging, but the President received a majority on the first round—the turnout in the elections of roughly 80% puts us to shame in terms of enthusiasm for voting. It was an excellent example of the loser, having first questioned the results, then wholeheartedly accepting it as soon as the Supreme Court had given its ruling.

I need hardly stress the importance of Kenya, as the noble Lord has done, with its internal growth and the extent of UK interests. Externally, Kenya has been a force for good in the region. Like the noble Lord, I think not only about Somalia and Kenya’s assistance against piracy, including with the courts, but also about Kenya as a key ally against terrorism in the region—and, of course, as a good Commonwealth partner.

The problem is clear, as the noble Lord said; it is the one posed by the International Criminal Court, especially for us, now that the President and his Vice-President are both indictees. It is something of an embarrassment for us and for the international community. Clearly, the indictees have been properly elected—the first time that that has happened. Do we shun them or have minimum contact? What consultations have there been with our European Union partners and with the Commonwealth? Already the President has been to the Somalia conference in London and I assume that he will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Sri Lanka. The experience of the indicted President al-Bashir in Sudan is quite different. Here we have a good ally, too big to ignore. Is it still the case that the proceedings are scheduled to begin in July or, as some rather hope, is the case collapsing? I suspect that the British Government would want the whole procedure at the International Criminal Court to fade far away so that we can forget it.

This raises a general point about the work of the International Criminal Court. After the series of ad hoc tribunals in the 1980s and 1990s, the Rome treaty on the International Criminal Court was warmly welcomed at the time. Yet, of course, there is not universal membership—I believe that the current membership is about 130 or 140—and there has been only one conviction in the period since 2002. Equally, a number of key countries, including the United States and other P5 members, are not members of the International Criminal Court.

Perhaps philosophically we have here a clash between justice and politics. Some will say, “Let justice be done whatever the result”, yet there is the question of politics. For example, suppose in Syria President Assad were to say, “Yes, my time is up. I will be prepared to go into a friendly country in exile, together with members of my family and entourage, so long as no proceedings are taken against me”. There would be a great temptation in the international community to proceed against him because of the very clear massacres and human rights violations in Syria. However, allowing him to move into a safe haven could save many thousands of lives. This is part of the dilemma that the international community would face.

I refer to the criticisms made at the inauguration of the new President by President Museveni of neighbouring Uganda. He said—and perhaps we should not pay too much attention to this—that it is to be noted that all the indictees thus far have been African. Is there a degree of bias against Africa in the ICC? Is it right that there has been poor evidence-gathering on behalf of the ICC—for example, too great a willingness to collude with Presidents, as it is alleged happened in the Congo and perhaps with Prime Minister Odinga in Kenya? I think that that probably is answered by the fact that the indictees included members of both Mr Odinga’s party and that of President Kenyatta. At least, those criticisms need to be examined.

What is the Government’s view? Do they accept in part the criticisms of President Museveni on the validity? Perhaps it would be helpful if the Minister, in responding, could say specifically how we intend to deal with the President of such an important Commonwealth country. What are the instructions to our high commissioner, remembering that these proceedings may take many years and there will be, as the Kenyans say, a trial by Skype? Do the Government, at least in part, accept the criticism of the conduct of the International Criminal Court raised by President Museveni?

Syria

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 20th May 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

We have limited but persuasive information that a chemical weapon has been used. The evidence is that it has been used at a low level in a small way. There is credible evidence of sarin being used but the extent of the use is not clear. The noble Lord raises an important point in relation to why the regime would use it in this particular way.

It is important that we act on this matter in conjunction with the international community. We have sent the evidence to the United Nations. It is important that the United Nations takes a view on the evidence that we and other international partners are submitting. The House will agree that if there is anything we have learnt over the past decade and more it is that before we put into the public domain evidence of chemical or biological weapons or weapons of mass destruction, it is crucial we are clear about when they were used, how they were used and by whom they were used.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I congratulate the Minister and the Foreign Office on their sure-footed approach thus far, but they should heed the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Wright, about putting fuel on the flames. I have three quick questions. What is our policy on the 70 or 100 jihadists resident in the UK when they seek to return home? We know there are many laggards in terms of honouring the pledges made at Kuwait; given that, what is the Government’s position? Do we name and shame or is there a way to encourage those laggards to honour their commitments? Given the poor and tardy response so far, what confidence do we have that any commitments made for post conflict reconstruction are met? Finally, on the international conference, President Assad has already said he will attend. Is it assumed that the opposition will also attend? We understand that Iran has largely subcontracted the air operations there to the Revolutionary Guards. Will Iran be invited to the conference? We know the strong opposition of France to that. What does Russia say about the role of President Assad in the interim period before the next presidential election, and how do we, our EU partners and the US respond to the position of Russia in respect of President Assad?

[Baroness Warsi]

First, in relation to the 70 to 100 jihadis, we have been working, both domestically and through the advice given by the Foreign Office, to discourage people travelling to Syria. Not only are there risks to them as individuals, but there is concern when these people return. It is not entirely clear who these people are fighting for when they are there. There will be interest in those people when they return, and noble Lords can rest assured that if they have intentions against the United Kingdom, they will be dealt with appropriately. We have a number of programmes, as noble Lords are aware, which deal with radicalisation and extremism within communities.

In terms of the international community, those countries that took part in the first Geneva discussions a year ago will be the countries that will take part in the second conference. It is not intended at this stage to invite further countries; Iran was not one of the countries involved last time, and it is not anticipated it will take part in the negotiations this time. We have no indications to suggest otherwise. The noble Lord may be aware of quite positive comments from the Russians; they do not see that Assad remaining in Syria has to be a precondition and do not appear wedded to a leader. We may have different views on how we handle the situation but, like us, the Russians want an end to the conflict. They see Syria fragmenting, and they want that to stop and the people of Syria to determine who governs them. Like us, they are concerned about the growth of extremism. There are lots on which we agree; there may have been differences on how we get there, but the recent negotiations and the Russians’ commitment to these further peace talks is a step in the right direction.

Tibet

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 26th February 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I know that the noble Lord has a long-standing interest in this matter. Indeed, I have had an opportunity to look at the recommendations of the report that he mentions. I am sure he will be heartened by the fact that we agree, at least in part, with some of its recommendations about the People’s Republic of China and the Dalai Lama returning to dialogue to take these matters forward bilaterally. Of course, I have real concern about the tragic cases of self-immolation. I have had an opportunity to read the casework on some of them. Tragically, those who die do so at great loss to their communities and families, but those who survive end up suffering for many years with very little treatment. It is a matter that we continue to raise.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, China is building better rail and road links to Tibet, which help the Han Chinese colonise that region. Of course, in spite of all these bilateral and multilateral meetings, China ignores any pleas for human rights in China itself, internationally or in Tibet. Does the Minister have any evidence that China is altering its stance in response to human rights in Tibet or internationally, commensurate with its new economic power?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, we are concerned about the lack of meaningful dialogue to address the underlying grievances against a clearly worsening situation. We continue to encourage all parties to work for a resumption of substantive dialogue as a means to address the Tibetan concerns and to relieve tensions. Of course, we continue to make the case to China that any economic progress can be sustained only if there is social progress as well.

Shipping: International Maritime Law

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Monday 4th February 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I can inform the noble and gallant Lord that no vessel has been successfully pirated when it has had security on board.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Could the Minister answer the specific question raised by my noble friend in respect of floating armouries, which is approved by the Security Association for the Maritime Industry? By having these arms on board ships outside territorial waters, they will avoid the need to go into port, with the obvious legal and bureaucratic problems that might arise. When will the Government come to a decision in respect of floating armouries?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord refers to the issue of floating armouries. Noble Lords may not all be aware that these are, effectively, vessels that sit outside of immediate country waters with a view to providing a place where armed items can be transferred and reused. We are currently consulting across Whitehall as to the best way in which to operate. The noble Lord will be aware that Sri Lanka has a specific example, whereby a ship which is used as a floating armoury lies just outside their territory. I am sure that he and other noble Lords will agree that to have such a vessel also increases concerns about what may happen if it is taken over.