Brexit Negotiations and No Deal Contingency Planning

Catherine West Excerpts

Tuesday 4th September 2018 Commons Chamber

[Dominic Raab]

I thank my hon. Friend for paying tribute to the excellent work being done at DExEU by our team of civil servants and across Whitehall. A huge amount of work is going on. I agree with his basic point that no deal would represent the worst-case scenario and the worst outcome from the negotiations. The best-case scenario and the optimum solution that we are aiming for is a good deal. I also agree that the approach to the Brexit negotiations will be defining both for the UK and the EU.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

What action are the Government taking to mitigate the effects on British science of the disastrous move offshore of the European Medicines Agency? In the event of no deal, how many research jobs do the Government estimate will be lost during the scramble to set up a new statutory authorising body?

[Dominic Raab]

In that sector, as in all others, we want to ensure that we have the strongest possible relationship with our EU partners, and she will be familiar with the proposals in that area from the White Paper. Of course, as for no deal contingency planning, the technical notices will cover this area, as they do for many others, but we are striving for the strongest deal possible, and that ought to give her confidence about jobs, co-operation and all the other areas in which she takes a close interest.

Leaving the EU: Parliamentary Vote

Catherine West Excerpts

Monday 11th June 2018 Westminster Hall

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to contribute to the debate under your chairmanship, Mr Austin. It is also a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Bath (Wera Hobhouse) and hear her arguments, and to hear my hon. Friend the Member for Blaydon (Liz Twist) lay out the case for the motion. As one would expect from a constituency such as mine, where 81% of people voted to remain in the European Union, a number of my constituents have signed the petition and it is a delight to project their voice this afternoon. Just today, we read that there will potentially be 4,000 job losses at Rolls-Royce and that Poundland is likely to go under, with 5,000 jobs lost, and I believe that over the weekend House of Fraser announced that it is closing a number of its flagship stores, which will affect many of our high streets.

[Chris Green]

When we look at our high streets, we are looking at our shops. Does what is happening reflect the nature of our transition out of the European Union or does it reflect, to some extent, the nature of our shopping habits, which are changing rapidly?

[Catherine West]

I thank the hon. Member for his intervention. I am sure it reflects trends such as the increased use of the internet to purchase products, but it is also a fundamental question of there being less money in people’s pockets. For example, there is just as much footfall as there has ever been in the high street in Wood Green, which I represent, but all the shops are closing because people do not have money in their pockets to spend. That reflects the 30-year flatness of wages, which I believe has been a big contributor to people’s dissatisfaction with traditional politics and led to some of the debate that we have ended up with.

Furthermore on the economy, of course, we have seen the drop in sterling, although it is slightly better now than it was just after the referendum result. However, we have also seen the effect on trade, in terms of uncertainty.

[Colin Clark]

The hon. Lady is citing specific statistics, so maybe she can answer two questions: why is employment so high; and why is the stock market at an ever-increasing level? How do those things reflect her argument about Brexit?

[Catherine West]

I thank the hon. Member for his intervention and I am very pleased that unemployment is now about 4%. That is something to be proud of and I am pleased that so many people are forcing themselves to go out to jobs that in other circumstances might not be that attractive. We know that most people—50% of the population—earn under £23,000. London MPs know that a lot of that money goes on rent for those in the private rented sector, and that those in the social housing sector still pay a lot of money for service charges and other things. Although I am very pleased about the employment statistics, as I am sure the hon. Gentleman is, we cannot just celebrate on that one fact alone; we have to consider the wider meaning, in terms of the level of income and the other costs that must be borne.

There is another thing to mention, of course, about trade being one of the general indicators of the economy. Today, the Financial Times shows the huge drop-off in both exports and imports for the UK, which is very troubling. We cannot say whether that is Brexit-related, of course, but what we can say is that it is related to uncertainty. Also in today’s Financial Times, I read that even the City of London—of course, as a London MP, I take an interest in jobs, not just the traditional City jobs but also those in all the supply chains that go into the City—seems to be losing its patience with the chaos around the Brexit negotiations. For example, when the Prime Minister gave her Mansion House speech, there was a lot of talk about, “Let’s be positive. We can do better.” However, there is now more and more concern from Catherine McGuinness, who is a leading member of the City of London corporation. For example, there is a real concern about the insurance industry and the financial services industry, and ensuring that we field the real economy efficiently. We feel that time is running out to mend the many fractures that Brexit has caused. For policy makers to have a chance of success, the City must first agree on its own priorities. So the City itself is confused, which is quite unusual for the City; City people are normally quite confident lobbyists, and rally both the Bank of England and the Treasury behind them.

[Chris Green]

I appreciate and recognise exactly what the hon. Lady is saying, but the strongest expression of that confidence and certainty about the future would be people choosing to remain in the City of London and the United Kingdom. Alternatively, they could head over to Paris and Frankfurt, but that has not happened in a substantial way; we do not want it to happen, but it has not happened in a substantial way. That goes against some of the fears that people had a while ago.

[Catherine West]

The hon. Gentleman makes a good point, but I am not sure that he is accurate. My understanding is that many companies have now started to set up subsidiaries in the Netherlands, Berlin and other places—perhaps New York—and it would be remiss of us not to take that seriously. The City has wanted to give the Government time, but it is now getting frustrated. I understand that during the recess, when we were off doing constituency work or having a little break, members of the City of London went to see the Prime Minister and came out a little dissatisfied—because they are worried, I guess, but also because of the lack of coherence in the Brexit strategy, which is something that I, as a London MP, am particularly worried about.

My next point is about the national health service. We are all well versed in what was on the side of the bus and the promises of £350 million for the NHS, so I shall not go over those, but I want to make a point about the workforce. We seem to be in a parallel universe. We know that Brexit will have an effect on migration and it is the stated desire of the Prime Minister to reduce migration, but when our GP clinics and our secondary care—our hospitals—are crying out for talented doctors and nurses to come and serve our constituents when they are ill, it seems rather unadvised that the Prime Minister refuses to at least look at the migration quotas she seems to have set herself.

The other big issue regarding migration is, of course, international students, who, along with education, are one of our best exports. The shadow Minister has done an awful lot of work in that regard and I have followed up on it, trying to raise his concerns and those of others about placing education at the heart of things as one of our proudest exports, and looking again at the target for students. At the moment, there is a cap on international students that is counted as part of the total immigration cap, which seems a bit like cutting off our nose to spite our face. I hope that we will consider that matter urgently, particularly now that we have a new Secretary of State, who might have a different view and a little more sway and that, following the Windrush and other scandals, we will try to take a much more sensible approach to immigration.

I do not think that any of us who are on Twitter will have missed how the tone of the debate has deteriorated somewhat since the referendum. My neighbouring MP, my right hon. Friend the Member for Tottenham (Mr Lammy), has received the most horrendous abuse, not just because he has spoken out clearly in favour of remaining in the EU—fine, that is his position—but because of the colour of his skin. We have seen that again with my right hon. Friend the Member for Hackney North and Stoke Newington (Ms Abbott) and I am sure that other Members have also experienced terrible racist remarks. I cannot help thinking that that has been part of the whole Brexit package. Indeed, I feel that there was a lack of leadership, originally, by Mr Cameron. He has gone now so we cannot ask him to come before us, but he promised that referendum without even indicating his plans for the economy or anything else, including for tackling what has become a terribly xenophobic debate, particularly on social media.

I briefly want to mention the leave campaign funding. In the past couple of days, a number of emails have been revealed that show the sheer scale of contact between members of the public who funded that campaign and the Russian Government.

[Chris Green]

Is that the official leave campaign or another campaign?

[Catherine West]

That is a very good question, and I am sure that if we asked the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee they would get to the bottom of it if, indeed, the people who were requested to turn up did so. I have been astounded by the cheek of some people who will not come before a Committee of elected Members, and I am pleased that Mr Speaker has taken a firm line on that.

A point has been made that we need to develop more: is the funding for our political campaigning somehow being abused? Do we need to tighten up legislation, approaches and rules? I, too, am worried about that. We know that there is a rule that donations can come only from British residents who are on the electoral register but we must look behind the individual, at what they might be getting in return for their support for a particular side, as with the allegations in today’s papers about Mr Banks’s business interests and the sheer amount he gave to the leave campaign.

I want to touch on Northern Ireland. As someone who cares a lot about peace and is interested in all sorts of peace negotiations around the world, be they in Colombia, Cyprus or Israel and Palestine, I think that we have made much progress on peace in Northern Ireland. For me, that is the biggest issue, and not just on a pragmatic level. Before Christmas, in phase 1 of the Brexit negotiations, we saw that to be the sticking point, with everyone holding their breath as the Prime Minister spoke to Arlene Foster. That was a fudge, wasn’t it? It really just slipped over because it was the end of phase 1. I have a horrible feeling that we will gallop up to the end of the Brexit process and there will be exactly the same issue. Therefore, with your permission, Mr Austin, I thought I might spend one minute going through what I believe to be important in relation to the Northern Ireland question.

Peace in Northern Ireland is one of the largest concerns for all parties negotiating the withdrawal from the European Union. Northern Ireland remains at the heart of the negotiations due to its unique history. Its 300-mile land border with the Republic of Ireland, its at times splinted political structures, its economy and the lasting terrorist threat continue to cause concern. Many now worry that its economic and political fabric could crack as the UK meanders towards a hard Brexit, in part because joint EU membership helps to underpin the Good Friday agreement. The Irish Government have ceded articles 2 and 3 of their constitution, which claim jurisdiction over the whole island of Ireland, willing to rely on collective European identity to reassure nationalists in Northern Ireland that the island will come closer together.

The EU has played a large role in boosting Northern Ireland’s economy, through structural funds. In comparison with the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland benefits disproportionately from the common agricultural policy and if, as many expect, London’s fiscal transfers do not match the lost EU funds, its economy will be harshly hit. Leaving the EU also puts Northern Ireland at risk of losing future funding for peace and reconciliation programmes.

Meanwhile, Ireland, the EU and the UK Government have all repeatedly made clear their opposition to a hard border, something that locals and campaigners say could risk the peace process and hit cross-border trade and the economy. However, the UK Government currently rule out being in the customs union, and I await with bated breath the votes that come between now and 1 August to see how that resolves itself. In the absence of regulatory alignment, all sides are beginning to acknowledge that there will be a hard border, because what else could there be. That has led many of us, in different parties, to call for remaining in the customs union or, at a minimum, committing to regulatory alignment, and that is echoed by many, including Simon Coveney, the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland’s European Commissioner, Phil Hogan, and even Michel Barnier. We cannot ignore the question of Northern Ireland and I am sure, instinctively, that we will end up with that being the sticking point at 11.59 pm on the day that Brexit is decided.

Finally, on the wider geopolitical picture, this weekend Mr Trump made a number of strange statements, including a questioning of NATO. The idea that America would leave NATO is rather strange, but his speeches, if read carefully, appear to suggest that. That puts a rather different shine on our relationship with Europe and I, for one, am much more concerned to hug Europe closer because of that. Some of Mr Trump’s values regarding not wanting to be part of the climate change process—

[Chris Green]

NATO is incredibly important, as are all our international relationships. In a conflict situation, would the hon. Lady depend more on Germany’s 1.1% or 1.2% of GDP on defence spending, or the United States’ 4%? Is the United States of America not living up to her international responsibilities in a way that Germany and many other European countries are not?

[Catherine West]

I do not think it was Mrs May or any of us who said we did not want the US to be in NATO. Unless I am mistaken—perhaps I am reading different newspapers—it was Mr Trump who was putting into question his commitment to NATO over the weekend. It raises questions in the same way as when he wanted to walk away from the Paris climate agreement. He was able basically to decide not to be part of that when almost every scientist internationally accepts that climate change is our greatest scientific challenge. In addition, some of his statements about ethnic minorities and the Muslim community in particular are deeply worrying. I feel they add to the sense of xenophobia that we are seeing not only in this country, but internationally. Such statements corrode our sense of our values as western powers—our values of human rights and a commitment to peace, stability and doing things right.

My deepest concern is about the international rules-based approach being deeply challenged by someone as important as Mr Trump. Last week, on the International Trade Committee visit to Geneva, I was able to speak to negotiators, who described the style of leadership as disruptive leadership. I am not sure what the best description for it is, except “deeply troubling”. This is a time for all of us in the west who are concerned about some of the international challenges to stick together. We should not tear ourselves apart or shout insults by tweet; we should pull ourselves together and face those challenges together. The whole debate on Brexit is corrosive. It fractures what is so important right now, which is to stick up for our values of human rights, peace, stability and security. I hope those who signed the petition will look at this debate and know we are taking these issues very seriously.

[Dr David Drew (Stroud) (Lab/Co-op)]

I am delighted to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Austin. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Blaydon (Liz Twist), who introduced this debate very fairly, walking on eggshells as she did. I congratulate the petitioners, because it is right and proper that Parliament has the opportunity to debate these issues. I am delighted to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Hornsey and Wood Green (Catherine West).

I want to keep my remarks very narrow, in the sense that I have been clear that I do not want another referendum. When I was in this place previously, I argued that the decision on the EU had to be taken by the British people. I was not directly involved in politics at the time of the referendum, but I thought the experience of the referendum was dreadful. It brought out the very worst in politicians and, dare I say, the public.

I am sure I am the only Member here who took part in the 1975 referendum, in which I voted. I was a member of the Labour party at the time—I have been one for 48 years now—and I remember that referendum being called out of weakness by the then Government, who were in direct conflict with their own party. There is nothing new in politics, is there? The referendum was conducted. It was not left versus right, because the left was split, the right was split and the centre was split, but compared with what happened in the recent referendum, it was so genteel. People actually argued their case. They did not involve themselves in personal invective, and they did not try to get money from wherever to allow the case not to be presented in the way that was best for the British public to understand, but slanted so that the British public ended up believing it was just about pure prejudice. That was not a good way to take the decision.

I disagree with the hon. Member for Bath (Wera Hobhouse), who has since disappeared. I am clear that if we re-ran the referendum, things would not get any better. All the evidence is that another referendum would be much more divisive. What would it resolve? If leave won, it would confirm that leave had won, but that is the situation at the moment. If remain won, we would have “neverendum”, because there would have to be a play-off. That is the worry with having another referendum. I am someone who has argued that, in fundamental constitutional issues, there has to be a referendum, but I have changed my mind. I would be happy to bring forward a Bill to ban referendums in this country. They are alien to our form of parliamentary democracy. It might work in Switzerland or other countries, but it has not worked in this country. We have ended up with the worst-case scenario. We had a narrow victory on one side and a poor debate that did not yield the arguments that needed to be brought forward.

What is the alternative? It is about time Parliament reasserted its authority. We only end up with referendums when a Government do not feel they can get their business through and Parliament cops out and refuses to take responsibility. Parliament cannot cop out on this matter anymore. When we come to the end of the negotiating period, it has to look at what is on the table. To be fair to the Government, this week we are all trying to pre-empt what we think the final deal will look like. Those of us who are partial towards the customs union hope that, at the very least, the Government will move on that issue. On other issues, we will have to see.

Hon. Members should remember that it takes two to tango. We can have all the arguments we like on this side, but if the other side—the EU—decides, “That is not what we want”, we are back to where we started. To my mind, we should rule out a second referendum. We should at least give the Government some opportunity to negotiate, but with pressure from the Opposition, because that is our job. We have to make the Government’s life fairly unbearable. We will do that this week, and we hope they lose a few of the Divisions, because that will make things much more interesting. That is what Oppositions do, and it is what Parliament is there for. Governments have to try to withstand that pressure. They may or may not. The one thing I feel absolutely certain about is that it will be a disaster if we go along the referendum path again. It will lead to even more division.

[Catherine West]

Given there seems to be an impasse within the Government on which direction to take, does my hon. Friend agree that when the deal is complete, it might help if the Prime Minister went back to the people and said, “Is this what you meant?”?

[Dr Drew]

That is a wonderful notion, but what will come out of the negotiations, if anything, will be a complicated settlement. We could end up with no deal. That would be a disaster, because I fear we would then move towards free trade deals with Lord knows who. We have got a debate on Thursday on agriculture, which is my area of responsibility on the Opposition Front Bench. If we do not negotiate something, I fear we will end up with a real dog’s breakfast of agreements that we might be able to sign.

I know what my hon. Friend is saying. My problem is that it will still lead to an incredibly divisive outcome—people feel so strongly. Anyone who feels differently from me should say so and intervene. I have heard strong opinions on both sides, and I do not think that people have shifted, in the main. Some people will have done, because that is inevitable—some people shift between parties between elections, dare I say—but in the main, people are pretty clear in their views. If those opinions are stirred up by anybody or any side, things will only get worse.

We have to take responsibility, and it will not be easy. We are going to upset some people. Parliament will not necessarily be flavour of the month for those who feel we have come up with the wrong solution, but that is what they elect us for. That is why I have a problem with referendums. In a sense, they negate our power as parliamentarians to do what we believe is right. If people do not like it, they get rid of us. At the moment, if we go back to the referendum, I fear we will end up with an even more difficult outcome, whichever way it goes, and the debate will be dreadful, because what we have seen so far will be there with knobs on. People will feel even more strongly, and they will get up to even more antics because they believe that is their right. That is where we, as a democracy, will struggle, because we have to put things back together. At the end of the day, whoever is in power will have to try and run things for the whole of the country, divided or not. I worry that the further apart we get and the more divided the debate is, the more difficult it will be to put things back together again.

[Catherine West]

I share my hon. Friend’s concern about referenda. However, our result was not like the Republic of Ireland’s recent referendum result of 66:33, or whatever the maths is, and the difference was so fine. Does he not accept that, although I am not a great fan of referenda, and given that Mr Cameron has led us this far, a referendum is perhaps the only thing that could give either a stamp of approval or overturn things? I do not put any value judgment on either position. I am talking about giving clarity.

[Dr Drew]

We always argue whether it is “referenda” or “referendums”, but I will stick to “referendums”. The problem with what my hon. Friend suggests is that I envisage a very close result again, whichever way it goes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Tom Brake]

I am very happy to do that. Of course, I think of Members of Parliament as people. Clearly we are entitled to a people’s vote, as are the people.

Does Parliament want to have a vote on this subject? Certainly, the Lords have made their views clear. From votes that have taken place so far, it seems there is perhaps not yet a majority in the House of Commons in favour of a people’s vote or a parliamentary vote that would allow us to choose between the deal the Government secure and staying in the European Union. That would be a meaningful vote. Parliament’s meaningful vote cannot be a choice between a deal that we know will be bad—the Government’s impact assessments have told us that whatever deal they come up with will be bad for us and shrink the UK economy—and crashing out of the European Union, which we know would be an absolute catastrophe and lead to blockages at every single port and airport around the country and to huge job losses. That is a not a meaningful vote. A meaningful vote would be one where the Prime Minister conceded that Members of Parliament could send it back.

Frankly, I think the Government are going to come up with a deal that no one likes. Which Member of Parliament, when the Government come forward with a deal, will stand up and say, “This is a brilliant deal—I absolutely love it”? I do not think a single Member of Parliament will stand up and say, “The deal the Government have struck is brilliant.” I will not, because I am a remainer, but nor will the members of the European Research Group, because they can see that the Government are making compromises. I suspect we will end up in a position where Members of Parliament are presented with a deal that no one will support.

[Catherine West]

Will the right hon. Gentleman reflect on the closeness of the original vote? A no-deal exit is so far from any interpretation of the very close original referendum result. It would be different if it were a soft Brexit. Perhaps it could be argued that that was okay, but a no-deal exit is so different from that 52% to 48% result. We all have to interpret the wishes of our constituents, but no deal is so far removed from what people wanted from Brexit in the best case scenario.

[Tom Brake]

I agree entirely with the hon. Lady. Members of Parliament should be offered a choice that reflects the choices that people made in the EU referendum campaign. I certainly cannot remember anyone saying to me, “I think the best thing for the United Kingdom would be to crash out overnight, on World Trade Organisation rules. That would be brilliant for British businesses and jobs.” If anyone had a constituent come to them and say, “That’s a fantastic solution,” they should stick their hand up now. No one will do so, because no one thought that that was a solution. Yet it seems that that is the choice that Members of Parliament will be offered.

Either we go for a deal that no Member of Parliament will support, whether they are a supporter of the ERG or a remainer like me, or we go for no deal, which nobody has ever supported from the outset. We are in a strange position. If the Government want to do this the right way, I suggest to them that remaining in the EU should be on the ballot paper. If it is, we might end up with a parliamentary outcome that reflects more closely the views of Members of Parliament and possibly those of the public more generally.

Members of Parliament should have a meaningful vote, for the reasons that I have set out. We are entitled to a real choice—not a Hobson’s choice between something catastrophic and something even more catastrophic. I will touch briefly on why there should also be a people’s vote. I have heard worrying reports from some Members of Parliament. Unfortunately, during the EU referendum campaign two years ago we had the murder of Jo Cox. Since then, Members of Parliament have been threatened for their views on our membership of the European Union. The only threats I have had are the comments that everyone who stands at a stall in favour of remain gets. A person stops, says, “You’re a traitor,” and then walks off.

That is the only sort of threat I have had, but I am aware that other Members of Parliament have had much more serious ones. There is a question mark over the extent to which they will be able to vote fairly and cleanly in the forthcoming votes. Potentially, a very small number of votes will determine the outcome, one way or the other. If Members of Parliament are scared of making the decision that they think is right because they have had threats to their lives—often the threats are not as serious as that, but they still have to be reported to the police—that is another reason why throwing this open to the country might be the right thing to do.

I thank the hon. Member for Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds) for her earlier intervention, ensuring that I came back on track and that, as opposed to focusing all my effort on the people’s vote, I came back to the parliamentary vote, which is just as significant.

--- Later in debate ---

[Peter Grant]

The hon. Gentleman has had enough chances to speak, between his substantive speech and his interventions. I note that when questions are raised about the conduct of the leave campaign, he wants to know which leave campaign it was. The question, then, is, which leave campaign won the referendum? If we do not know that, we cannot possibly know which version of leave people voted for.

The hon. Member for Hornsey and Wood Green (Catherine West), who is backed up by a substantial majority in her constituency—her constituents are clearly in favour of remaining in the European Union—also drew attention to some of the flaws in the process. Questions must be asked about who provided the massive funding for the leave campaign. I know that opinion polls can sometimes be misleading, but there are certainly many indications that, if it is established that there was something seriously dodgy about how any of the leave campaigns were funded, even people who voted to leave will see that as cheating. That is simply not the way we do what passes for democracy in this place and in these islands.

[Catherine West]

The hon. Gentleman is making some very important points. Does he agree that, once we know more and journalists have an opportunity to uncover more—perhaps in their own emails—we might discover that there should be a police investigation into some of those worrying issues, such as how the money that pushed the vote in a certain direction was amassed?

[Peter Grant]

Some of the revelations of the past few days could certainly lead to that. We now need to ensure those in charge of the investigations have the information they need and are co-operated with fully when they carry them out. That, of course, includes Select Committees of this Parliament. It is fascinating that some of the champions of the “bring sovereignty back to Parliament” brigade ran a mile when Parliament asked them to come in and account for the way they ran their campaigns, but the leave campaign has been full of contradictions from the beginning.

The hon. Member for Stroud (Dr Drew) made an interesting speech. He, too, tended to talk about a second referendum, although he made the point that it is possible to reject the idea of another referendum while supporting the idea that Members of Parliament, who have been guaranteed a vote, have to be given a meaningful vote. I do not think that choosing between an option the Prime Minister says is unpalatable and one she says is unacceptable is anything like a meaningful vote.

I find it extraordinary that a Prime Minister who has told us so often that our relationship with the European Union cannot be based on a binary choice is so obsessed with giving us a binary choice when it comes to the crunch. She told us in October 2016 that controlling immigration is not a binary decision. In March 2017, she said:

“It is wrong to think of the single market as a binary issue”—[Official Report, 14 March 2017; Vol. 623, c. 190.]

In October 2016, she said that

“the way in which you deal with the customs union is not a binary choice”—[Official Report, 24 October 2016; Vol. 616, c. 35.]

She must have meant it about the customs union, because she repeated that in November 2016, February 2017 and March 2018. That is only in the House of Commons Hansard. That does not include the number of times she has made the same comments at press conferences and in fancy speeches. In fact, the only time the Government seem to think that this is a binary question is whenever they want a decision to be made. In the referendum, we had a binary choice—in or out of the European Union, without any consideration of the infinite variety of what in or out could be. The Government palmed off any attempt to amend the article 50 Bill. We either had to support it in its entirety or reject it. In the first major speech the Prime Minister made about the European Union, she made a binary decision that we were leaving the customs union and the single market, before anybody, including the Prime Minister herself, had the faintest clue about where we would go after we had left those destinations.

Incidentally, I can advise the hon. Member for Bolton West that there is no such thing as a good no deal at the end of these negotiations. There is no such thing as a no deal that is better than a bad deal. Even the Government could not negotiate a deal worse than what no deal would mean for the people of these islands.

We are now being told that, when it comes to the last chance to avoid a catastrophic hard Brexit, we will be presented with a choice between a possibly horrific deal that the Government have agreed with the European Union and an even more horrific deal that they have failed to agree.

--- Later in debate ---

[Paul Blomfield (Sheffield Central) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to wind up the debate on behalf of the Opposition with you in the Chair, Mr Austin. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Blaydon (Liz Twist) on the thoughtful way in which she presented the feelings of the petitioners. I also congratulate the petitioners on their engagement in this process.

The debate is timely—that is an understatement, given the week that we have ahead. Tomorrow the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill returns to the Commons, and this issue will be at the very heart of those discussions, because it is critical. The petitioners could have expected many more colleagues from all parties and a much longer debate had we not been preparing for discussion of the Bill this week. If anyone gets bored with that, we also have Brexit oral questions on Thursday, so it is a Brexit-packed week in Parliament.

The current situation is clearly something of a national disaster. We are having the most important negotiations for our country since the second world war, but we are being led by the most dysfunctional Government in our lifetimes. The uncertainty created by that was highlighted powerfully by my hon. Friend the Member for Hornsey and Wood Green (Catherine West) in terms of the impact on our economy. We have four months to go until the October conclusion of the negotiations. After two years, with just four months left, we see open warfare in the Cabinet. The Government are still incapable—this is quite extraordinary—of publishing the negotiating objectives White Paper they promised only four weeks ago.

[Catherine West]

Is my hon. Friend surprised that foreign direct investment has dropped by 90% from 2016 to today?

[Paul Blomfield]

I am not surprised, frankly. A couple of weeks ago, I was in Strasbourg talking to colleagues from different parties and countries, and they are shocked by Britain at the moment. Whatever their differences have been with us in the past, they always respected Britain as having an effective Government with a well-oiled diplomatic machine and being clear on their objectives and how to achieve them. They cannot believe the Government’s shambles, creating the uncertainty that my hon. Friend spoke about.

We still have no solution to the Irish border and to fulfilling the obligation made by the Government. We are no further forward on plans to protect what was originally described as frictionless trade—the Government are now backtracking on that and talking about a more limited ambition. We certainly have no clarity on how they will achieve the exact same benefits that we now enjoy in the single market and the customs union—a negotiating aim that they set for themselves and that the Prime Minister has repeated.

[Geraint Davies in the Chair]

The open warfare is incredible. Only last week the Foreign Secretary unfavourably compared the Prime Minister’s negotiating approach with that of Donald Trump. Is that what we have come to? The holder of one of the key offices of state is undermining his own Prime Minister and, indeed, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who said a little while ago on national television that he was being openly undermined and briefed against by other members of the Cabinet. This is a shocking position to be in.

With the Government paralysed by their own divisions, it looks increasingly as if Parliament will need—to coin a phrase—to take back control. It is ironic that some of the most vocal supporters of leaving the European Union, who made grand demands about parliamentary sovereignty central to their campaign, are so reluctant to concede that parliamentary sovereignty at this vital time. Those who cried foul about being a vassal state during the transition period seem to want a vassal Parliament in these vital negotiations. At this critical juncture, they say yes, they want parliamentary sovereignty—but not just yet, and not if it undermines their desire for the most extreme Brexit.

--- Later in debate ---

[Suella Braverman]

I am not going to comment on the speculative and hypothetical theories that are being circulated, but it is clear that the accusations that the right hon. Gentleman puts are not against the official campaign—the organisation that was nominated to lead the leave campaign in the 2016 referendum.

The hon. Member for Hornsey and Wood Green made an interesting and wide-ranging speech about many aspects of the European Union—not least the economic case for remaining in the EU, if it is fair to describe it in that way—but again, I disagree with her sentiments. Output in the service sector is up, consumer spending is up, output in the manufacturing and construction sectors is up, growth forecasts have been revised up, foreign direct investment projects are up and unemployment is at a 40-year low—all that despite Brexit—so I question what economic picture she refers to.

[Catherine West]

What does the Minister make of the 90% drop in foreign direct investment, which has been commented on in the financial pages of every major newspaper? I am referring not to projects—I noticed that she qualified what she said by referring to projects—but to the 90% drop in FDI. Further, what does she make of the drop in house prices in high-value areas, which has an impact on supply chains?

[Suella Braverman]

The hon. Lady can refer to the Department for International Trade figures that I relied on, which show that foreign direct investment projects have been on the increase since the referendum. More broadly, we can also look at the number of global companies that are choosing the UK as an investment location. Most recently, Amazon announced the creation of 2,500 jobs by the end of this year. If that is not a vote of confidence in the British economy, I do not know what is.

Out of respect for the strength of our democracy and the public’s trust in our democratic institutions, I cannot respond in the way that the 100,000-plus signatories to the petition may wish me to. Simply put, remaining in the EU is not an option. I do not say that lightly, as I recognise the strength of feeling about this issue on both sides of the debate. The Government’s position is clear: we will respect the result of the referendum. The UK will not remain a member of the European Union. We are also clear, as a matter of firm policy, that our notification under article 50 will not be withdrawn. We will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019.

Before I turn to Members’ specific questions, let me set out why that is our policy and how it will be reflected in our approach to the vote on the withdrawal agreement and the terms of our future relationship. When voters walked into polling booths on 23 June 2016, they had received through their doors a leaflet from the Government that set out very clearly, with no room for misunderstanding or misinterpretation:

“This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.”

That decision was equally clear. Voters were asked:

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union”?

On 23 June 2016, 72% of the electorate voted on that question, and 17.4 million of them—52% of those who voted—made a clear and unambiguous decision. They instructed the Government to take the UK out of the EU—to leave.

--- Later in debate ---

[Suella Braverman]

I disagree. The Hailsham amendment would set a dangerous constitutional precedent that would limit the Government’s prerogative in the act of international treaty negotiation. That would reduce the flexibility necessary for a successful negotiation, which is essential for the Government if we are to get the best deal possible.

[Catherine West]

Will the Minister accept that such language may lead to a groundswell for a further referendum? Parliament is not being given the genuine power to direct the negotiation, which is the original meaning of giving sovereignty to Parliament.

[Suella Braverman]

The Government have been clear, and our amendment reiterates that clarity, that Parliament will have the power to have a vote on the final deal. That will be a meaningful vote. The hon. Lady talks about parliamentary sovereignty and encouraging scrutiny, and a meaningful vote on the final deal is the best example and biggest opportunity for Parliament to have the very say she talks about on the deal presented and negotiated by the Government.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Catherine West Excerpts

3rd reading: House of Commons & Report stage: Second Day: House of Commons
Wednesday 17th January 2018 Commons Chamber

If there is no deal at all—I hope that that will not be the case; I think it is inconceivable that no deal will be reached, and I am conscious of the points that hon. Members have made about the difficulties that that situation would create for Northern Ireland—there will be no vote for Parliament. My amendment 10 would address the fact that only Ministers can change the date, as well as the fact that Parliament would have no vote if there were no deal at all.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

I thank my right hon. Friend for giving way in this tight debate. The negotiation before Christmas came down, in the end, to the Ireland question. Does she accept that allowing enough flexibility, as many of the amendments do, is crucial to the final, icing-on-the-cake deal?

[Yvette Cooper]

My hon. Friend is right. It is immensely important that we get these decisions right. I have proposed, in amendment 10, that the date should be settled in Parliament in the statute that provides for a meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement. It is the obvious and logical consequence of agreeing to the previous amendment 7, which requires a vote on a statute. Let us set the date for departure in that statute, rather than in this Bill. I propose that when we get to the withdrawal agreement, we confirm the date, because the terms and timing of departure should go hand in hand. In that way, we do not concentrate all the power in Ministers’ hands.

We need to make sure that when Parliament has a meaningful vote, we have proper transparency and a debate on the decision, and that is why new clause 17 is so important. The Government have ruled out membership of the single market and the customs union. Everyone recognises that the single market issues are complex, linked as they are to questions of immigration and how we deal with future rules. That makes it even more important for Parliament and the public to be able to scrutinise the Government’s decisions on those complex issues. To do so, we need to know the facts and the impact on the economy and our constituencies.

On the customs union, the issues are more straightforward, but the need for transparency is the same. Being in the customs union is immensely important not just for Northern Ireland, but for manufacturers across the country, especially across the north and the midlands. The Prime Minister, we understand, has had special meetings with City financiers about what they need from the Brexit deal, but what about Yorkshire manufacturers in my constituency? Where is their chance to have their say on the customs arrangements that they need? Where is the opportunity for us all to see the impact of not being in the customs union, the impact of decisions about the single market, and the impact on jobs in our constituencies before, not after, we vote on the withdrawal agreement? The ramifications of these decisions are immense.

The amendments are about strengthening the power of Parliament, no matter what kind of Brexit we think is best, and no matter what our politics or party membership. The amendments are about the health and resilience of our democracy, and about us all working together to get these crucial decisions right.

Brexit Deal: Referendum

Catherine West Excerpts

Monday 11th December 2017 Westminster Hall

[Geraint Davies]

That is an absolutely critical point. As the hon. Lady will know, the fact is that only one third of 18 to 34-year-olds voted in a referendum that will have such a massive impact over their lifetimes, and indeed their children’s lifetimes. Something like 80% of the over-65s voted. Of course, what follows is that, tragically, many of the people who voted to leave will have since passed away, and many of the people who were 17 at the time will now be 18. There is no doubt in my mind that, if there was another referendum, more younger people would vote. We saw that in the general election: a lot of the Labour vote, in my view, was from people who thought, “Hold on. I missed out on this Brexit thing. I’ve been sold down the river by all these older voters who participated, and that’s my future.”

One of my daughters said, “I’ve got a long time to live on this decision. Don’t you think that my vote should be weighted by the amount of life I’ve got left? There might be people who voted to leave who will sadly be gone from this world in 10 years, and I’ve got another 70 years.” I am not saying that she should have that weighting, but we should bear in mind that the future of all our young people is at a turning point. The idea that we should say, “It doesn’t matter if people have changed their minds. It doesn’t matter if the facts have changed. They said this then, based on a load of rubbish, so we’ve got to do it anyway,” about such a profound change is an indictment of the whole democratic and parliamentary system.

Our parliamentary system sends the people in this room, and in the larger Chamber, here to represent the best interests of their constituents. It might be the case from time to time that, because we spend our time thinking about these things, we like to think we have some inside knowledge or information to make those decisions. To subcontract and say, “You make the decision on the basis of a pile of lies on a red bus,” is disgraceful. I believe—and it is constitutionally true—that the vote was advisory. That was confirmed by the Supreme Court, which is why the Government were forced to have the article 50 vote.

The situation is changing. In fact, public awareness seems to be growing faster than awareness here, because they suddenly want a vote and the people in here do not want one. Once it hits a certain threshold—I think it will hit 60% within the next few months—we will find MPs saying, “If that is what they want, then we will have that,” which I think is fair enough.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

My hon. Friend is making a convincing speech. The hon. Member for Hornchurch and Upminster (Julia Lopez) asked him about his constituents in Swansea. I wonder what assessment he has made of the impact on the Welsh economy, particularly given some of the grants the area might have received. Is he aware whether one of the secret papers that the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union might have in his drawer—or wherever they are—has made any serious assessment of the impact of stopping those grants and how much our national Government will step in on that question?

[Geraint Davies]

I am pleased that question has been asked. The reality is that Wales has 70% of the gross value added of the UK average. In other words, wages overall are massively less. That is why my area of Swansea bay and west Wales is the poorest part of the whole EU. It therefore gets convergence funding to support it. We have had a doubling of our great Swansea University, with an extra bay campus, and so on. Those things would not have happened had we not been in the EU. The big question is why people in Wales did not vote to stay if they get all these benefits—and they do get them.

I have a personal admission to make. The Welsh Assembly elections were held in the May before June 2016, and the whole focus of the Labour party was on trying to maximise representation in the Welsh Government. The view was therefore, “If we talk about Europe all the time, we are very divided; some Labour voters are for and some are against. Let’s just talk about the Assembly and what it does on health, education and everything else.” We then had a month left to talk about Europe. During that whole period, because we have proportional representation, the UK Independence party used the opportunity to spread malicious claims, such as, “Europe’s terrible. Isn’t it awful? We pay all this money for Europe.” Of course that is a lie in Wales’s case, since we are a net beneficiary, by billions of pounds. After the Assembly elections we had a month left, and people were already predisposed.

We have ended up with a farcical situation in which Wales will lose billions of pounds, and on top of that we will have the divorce bill thrust down our throats—£1,000 per family—and on top of that big infrastructure projects such as the Swansea bay tidal lagoon and electrification of the railways are being scrapped to pay for the Brexit bill. It is a great tragedy for Wales, and opinion in Wales is changing as people wake up to the reality—“Hold on; this wasn’t such a good idea after all.” They, like everyone in the UK, deserve a final say on the Brexit deal.

Sadly, we have had an interim agreement from the Prime Minister, but the worst is yet to come. If we have the new trade deals that people have talked about, “CETA-plus-plus” and the like, and we have buccaneer Britain on the high seas, hoping to carve up those trade deals, but with no experience of doing them in the past 40 years and no expertise, I fear for Britain.

I had better bring my remarks to a halt. People do not want this massive bill, higher prices, lost rights, an exodus of jobs and devaluation of wages and capital; they want to take back control from a team of incompetent Ministers who do not even do an impact study before going into negotiations. They want to take back control from incompetent Ministers who would carve up shoddy deals under pressure and behind closed doors. They want to have the final say so that, instead of paying more money for less, we have the option of going back to the successful partnership we previously enjoyed.

We all know this reality to be true. The great majority of MPs know in their hearts that it is not in Britain’s interests to leave the EU. They know that, but they say that the people said they wanted it. They also know that the people were misled, and that the people know that they were misled. As things change, politicians will come to the unstoppable truth that the people will demand —and will have, in my view—the final say on the exit deal, and I hope very much that we will remain in the EU.

--- Later in debate ---

[Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington) (LD)]

Thank you for chairing the debate, Sir David. I will make a few comments about some of the contributions that have been made. I start by thanking the hon. Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) for introducing the debate and for setting out the range of views in the petitions. She drew attention to the fact that it is dangerous for the Prime Minister and the Government to seek to represent the views of only one section. When I specifically asked the Prime Minister when she will stand up and speak for the 48%, her answer was, “I am representing the 52%.” Other Members have asked, “Why has this debate been quite binary?” I think it is because our Prime Minister has adopted a binary position on whom she is representing, and that is very dangerous.

I was amused when the hon. Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) referred to the fact that the European Union has been a running sore through the body politic. To be more precise, it has been a running sore through his political party, and that is why we had the referendum.

[Catherine West]

Perhaps the case in point is the fact that we would not be having this discussion had a certain former Prime Minister not brought it on, due to the running sore within his own movement.

[Tom Brake]

Indeed; the measure was clearly designed to try to bring the Conservative party together for a general election campaign. The hon. Member for Cleethorpes also asked why we would want to settle for a worse deal than the one we have. That is exactly what we will do as a result of his Government’s actions.

I welcome the Bill introduced by the hon. Member for Swansea West (Geraint Davies), who is not in his place. A vote on the deal is Liberal Democrat policy. There will be an opportunity to test the House on day eight of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, when amendment 120 will be voted on. On 20 December, I hope that many Members of Parliament from all parties who are in the Chamber today will support that and enable that further vote to happen.

The issue of young people and the fact that they voted heavily to remain has been rather set aside by Government Members. Although I would not support the idea of weighting for votes, disregarding those concerns and not accepting that there is a difference between the impact on young people and the impact on the older section of the population who voted to leave is a concern.

The issues that were raised about the impact on Wales are a concern, too. If farmers in Wales are expecting to get the same level of subsidy that they do now, they need to rethink things, because frankly, they will not. Farmers are certainly very worried by the prospect of no deal, so a positive thing about Friday was that the possibility of no deal has receded a bit. I met a farmer last week who potentially faced tariffs of 40% on lamb if we fall back on World Trade Organisation rules. If anyone thinks that a single hill farmer will continue to operate in Wales or Scotland with 40% tariffs on lamb, if we fall back on WTO rules, they need to think again.

The hon. Member for Swansea West said that there was no one who has experience of doing trade deals. When I asked the question, I got one name—Crawford Falconer—so at least the Government have one person. It is a pity, however, that Mr Falconer came from the Legatum Institute, which, frankly, has adopted a rather biased position on Brexit and is very much pushing a hard Brexit agenda.

The hon. Member for East Renfrewshire (Paul Masterton) referred to the value of trade. He said that he supported remain because he recognised the value to trade and business of being in the European Union and because we were so integrated. Yet he is now fully endorsing something that he knows will cause damage to trade and business. That is why I find it difficult to understand the position that Conservative remain-voting Members of Parliament are now adopting, with their wholesale endorsement of something that they know will cause damage. Yet they are willing to proceed with it; the will of the people dictated it, so we are going over the cliff edge, come what may. They know that it will cause damage but they are endorsing it.

The hon. Member for York Central (Rachael Maskell) was right to say that the referendum was at a point in time. She said that she found hope in the statement on Friday, as did I, but my little bit of hope was somewhat reduced within 24 hours, when the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said that if people do not like the deal, they can tear it up at the next general election and have another one. I am not sure what message it sends to the European Union about our negotiations with it, or indeed, to the Irish about the certainty they can have about what our Government agree, if a very senior Cabinet Member says, “Actually, if you don’t like it, we’ll give you another one. We’ll give you the real hard Brexit that I support, as Secretary of State for DEFRA”—or as the spokesman for foreign affairs. I do not have confidence that this will stick for very long. Members are waiting in the wings and keeping remarkably quiet at the moment, and I wonder how long, for instance, the hon. Member for Stone (Sir William Cash) and the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) will do so.

I would like to comment on many other things, but I am aware that we need to move on to the Front Benchers’ contributions soon. The hon. Member for North East Derbyshire (Lee Rowley) should not be surprised that this has not been an academic debate on the benefits of referendums versus parliamentary democracy. He has strong views on this debate, as do I and many other Members of the House. We on the Opposition side have strong views because we believe that this will be the single most damaging, dangerous thing that the UK has embarked on in the past 50 years. I am afraid that we are not going to have an academic debate about the merits of referendums; we are actually going to focus on what we think will cause major damage to the United Kingdom.

If people do not believe that, I recommend that they talk to foreign diplomats, from the European Union and outside it, about what their perception of the United Kingdom is now. That is not just down to who we have as our Foreign Secretary, but because they believe that we are isolating ourselves and taking a step backwards. We are far from being the global Britain that the Government talk about. Our friends believe the opposite. That is not me saying that; it is what I hear from my contact with diplomats, who are conveying that message to our Government. They do not understand. We used to have a Government who were pragmatic and well organised in negotiations and who played a central role in the European Union; now we have a Government who are disorganised, do not know where we stand and have not even yet had significant Cabinet debates about what the future of our relationship with the European Union should look like.

Finally, I was wondering whether there was anyone who was perhaps more pessimistic about Brexit than me, but I have found in the hon. Member for Newport West (Paul Flynn) someone who feels as strongly—indeed more strongly than I do. I also support entirely the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas), who I think is in the same place as me. She rightly highlighted the very legitimate concerns that the people who voted leave had during the course of that campaign. I challenge the Government to say what they have done about some of those most significant concerns.

On housing, we need 300,000 new homes. How many of those will the Government build? How many will they build when many of those construction workers who work in London do not return after Christmas because they prefer to stay in their countries in the European Union? So that is not going to happen. On the skills agenda, the number of people doing apprenticeships, which are about giving people the skills to take the jobs here so that we do not have to rely on people from the EU, has halved. The Government are simply not addressing those concerns.

On 20 December, I hope that people will support amendment 120. Other Members have referred to the Survation poll and I agree that we cannot claim that everything has changed on the basis of one poll. However, a number of polls—not just the Survation poll—point to a shift. Peter Kellner has pointed to the same thing: a shift, for instance, from working-class voters on this issue. Other Members quoted the figure of those responding to the Survation question—

“When the UK Government’s negotiations over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are complete, would you…support holding a referendum?”—

which is just under 50%, whereas 34% oppose such a referendum.

When I was quoting those figures, I saw the Minister shaking his head. I am not sure whether he disagrees with Survation’s methodology—perhaps he does and would like to set that out—but those are the figures that it provided, and I am sure its poll was decent and well researched. The main argument deployed against having a vote on the deal is that the will of the people was expressed on 23 June 2016, so job done; we proceed. Well, people around the world are considering with increasing concern whether there was, for instance, significant Russian interference in the US elections. Will they be happy and confident in future years simply to go along with the result, knowing that the Russians might have played a significant role in perverting the outcome of the election?

The hon. Member for Newport West referred to the debate that will take place next Wednesday, on 20 December, about Russian interference in UK politics and society. There is evidence of organised Twitter activity by the Russians, seeking to influence the outcome of the EU referendum. Why did they do that? Because it is in their interests to split up the European Union, and they know that the UK played a significant role in ensuring that sanctions were applied to Russia. There is evidence. I ask Conservative leave supporters what level of interference from abroad or lies peddled at home—I will not cover the ground about the £350 million a week for the NHS, as it has been mentioned frequently in this debate—would make them feel that maybe the result was not quite so convincing after all. It was only 52% to 48%.

I have before me a selection of leaflets—I will not go through them, because I know that we need to get to the Front-Bench speeches—containing what the leave campaign said during the EU referendum period. They say that we will get lots of money back after leaving the European Union, but they do not mention all the additional costs, including duplicating agencies and the settlement bill, which we now know is a down payment, not the final payment. We might have to pay for access to the single market and the customs union, when we know that we will have a smaller economy. Again, the Minister shook his head when the figure of £65 billion in shrinkage was mentioned; that was actually the Chancellor’s figure, so I am not sure what he was disagreeing with.

We know that the NHS is spending more money on visas for nurses, because nurses are not coming from Spain, Portugal and Italy anymore. In fact, I have been told that the recruitment fairs that the NHS used to hold have stopped, and nurses are coming instead from Thailand and India. The difference is that the Government—the hospital trust—must pay £1,000 per visa to secure those nurses, whereas when they came from Spain, Portugal and Italy, it cost NHS trusts nothing at all.

I do not have time to go through all the things that were said by the leave campaign in its leaflets, none of which, I argue, has been delivered. Another Member referred to the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit, which I certainly recommend. It is an example of the will of the people being expressed through a deliberative and constructive process that takes people through the arguments. It is the debate that we should have had before the EU referendum, but did not. The outcome, hon. Members will be interested to know, was that on migration, people wanted to

“retain free movement of labour, but with the UK Government exercising all available controls to prevent abuse”

of the system. Incidentally, the UK Government could have done that, but chose not to.

[Catherine West]

I will be extremely brief, because I know that there are other speeches to be made. Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that instead, we have had a bitter debate that has been xenophobic in tone, has lacked a lot of facts, and has led to an increase in hate crime since the beginning in earnest of the referendum period?

[Tom Brake]

Yes, and I suspect that every Member who is a remain supporter will have experienced that on stalls. People have come up to me and accused me of being a traitor. When papers talk about people being saboteurs, it clearly feeds that section of the population who might respond aggressively. It has fed that, and I regret it.

I will finish on a point about the strongest reason why Conservative Members should support the idea of a vote on the deal. First, even the most hard-line Brexiter must recognise that this is bad news for the UK—for UK jobs and UK families. It is also bad news for the Conservative party, because this is Tory Brexit. The Conservative party is delivering Brexit, and if it turns out as badly as some economic analysts predict, I expect that it will hang around the neck of the Conservative party for the next 20 or 30 years; I hope so. The Conservatives have an opportunity to engage the public and give them their say. If the public endorse and want to proceed with a deal that causes us more and more damage as each day goes by, they can say so in a referendum, but if they do not, that will give the Government the let-out that they need to stop them embarking on a course that Members of Parliament overwhelmingly knew would cause us damage, as we have heard it from some here today, and still know will cause us damage—but that they intend to proceed with anyway.

--- Later in debate ---

[Paul Blomfield]

That might be helpful, but if the Government did provide such a timetable, they would discover that they are already two months behind their first target date.

I understand the frustration of those who call for another referendum. Judging from the comments of leading leave campaigners in the days before the 2016 referendum, we would be facing the same demands from the other side if the remain camp had won by the same margin.

[Catherine West]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the Government’s lack of preparation for the result was a dereliction of duty? If they had been more prepared the week after the referendum, that would have speeded things up; at least we would have had some sort of a road map by now. It is the feeling that the process is completely out of control that is so frustrating.

[Paul Blomfield]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. The arrogance and confidence with which the Government approached the referendum campaign was probably what led to the result; it certainly meant that they were not prepared for the outcome.

I also understand the frustration that the promises made by leave campaigners were so quickly disowned after 23 June, whether that was the nonsense about £350 million a week for the NHS or the expectations about migration that were unleashed but that the Government have no intention of delivering in the way that the leave campaign led people to expect. Since Labour’s view was that our membership of the European Union was too complex and far-reaching an issue to be resolved by a simple binary vote, we did not support the call for a referendum at the time of the 2015 election. At least the enthusiasm of the right hon. Member for Carshalton and Wallington (Tom Brake) for a further referendum matches his enthusiasm for the last.

We have heard some interesting contributions to the debate. The hon. Member for East Renfrewshire (Paul Masterton) made some thoughtful comments. The hon. Member for North East Derbyshire (Lee Rowley) was probably right to say that these debates slip too often into tribalism, although I thought he was edging towards it himself at the end of his contribution. One of the problems with a simple binary vote was that it left the result open to the extreme interpretation, and those on the right of the Conservative party have tried to fill the void. They quickly seized upon the result, describing the decision as the biggest mandate in UK political history, which it was not. The number of people who voted to leave in 2016 was roughly the same as the number who voted yes in 1975—and that was a 67% vote in favour of joining the European Community. However, that did not stop some of the leave campaigners who remained consistent for more than 40 years in seeking to overturn that vote.

At the same time, some of those same people have interpreted the 2016 vote as a mandate for the deepest rupture possible, which it was not. As others have pointed out, it was not a mandate for driving over a cliff edge with no deal, or without a transitional deal on much the same terms that we have now. It was not a vote for leaving all the agencies and partnerships, from Euratom to the European Medicines Agency, and it was not a vote for turning our back on the single market or for walking away from the customs union, regardless of the consequences. It was simply a vote to leave the European Union. It was a close vote—a painfully close vote—but there was a clear decision, and we should be implementing that decision in a way that tries to unite the country and not divide it.

I turn to the contribution of my hon. Friend the Member for York Central (Rachael Maskell), because she addressed a central issue. I have been involved in all sorts of campaigns over the years, but one of the worst aspects of the 2016 referendum was just how unpleasant and divisive it was. I did dozens and dozens of meetings in my constituency, trying to make the case for us to remain within the European Union, and I was delighted that my constituents voted—by about 70%—to remain. However, the very last question at the very last meeting that I attended in a local church has stayed with me ever since. Somebody said, “How are you going to put together our broken country after this referendum?”

Another referendum will not tackle that challenge, but frankly nor will the approach of the Prime Minister in allowing the extreme Brexiteers in her party, who are a minority, to set the agenda. To be fair to the Prime Minister, she went to the country in June to seek a mandate for extreme Brexit, but she did not get it. That vote of the people deserves respect, too, but she is pushing on regardless and allowing the internal management of the Conservative party to come before the national interest.

The hon. Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) talked about this issue having been a running sore. Others have pointed out that it is not a running sore through the country; it has been a running sore through the Conservative party.

EU Exit Negotiations

Catherine West Excerpts

Monday 13th November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Davis]

I made an undertaking to the House about a year and a half ago that I would be more polite than hon. Members have ever seen me in my comments about the Commission, and I will stick to that.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

The Secretary of State often uses the words “creative”, “be creative” and “creativity”. Will he and his team come up with a more creative approach to settled status? It is upsetting many of my constituents, who have been resident for many decades and contributed an enormous amount. They feel that settled status suddenly puts them in a different arrangement. They entered with free movement and they feel they had a different treaty relationship, but now the rug is being pulled from under them. Please could he be creative?

[Mr Davis]

We have been quite creative so far. Many of those who have been here a long time are already permanent residents. One of the things the Italian Government persuaded me was worth doing is ensuring that people’s transition to the new permanent residence is completely frictionless, requiring no more than a photograph and a criminality check. We have given those who will still be making the application a two-year grace period beyond our departure, and we published a report last week to show that the process will be simple, straightforward and very cheap. Those things are designed to make people feel more secure, as I hope they do, because I reiterate that we value the contribution of the 3 million Europeans who are in this country today.

Exiting the EU: Sectoral Analysis

Catherine West Excerpts

Tuesday 7th November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Baker]

No, that is not the case.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

Is the Minister forgetting that, this time in one week, we will have 300 or 400 amendments before the House? Does he believe that this is a good way to start the Committee stage of European Union (Withdrawal) Bill?

[Mr Baker]

I am very conscious of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill coming forward, and I would like to begin Committee stage in a positive spirit of collaboration in order to deliver in the national interest. I have sought today to give straightforward answers to the questions that we have been asked, and I stand by what I have said.

Oral Answers to Questions

Catherine West Excerpts

Thursday 2nd November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Baker]

My hon. Friend makes an extremely good point. I feel sure that all sides in this negotiation are conducting their analyses of everyone’s negotiating capital. The electorate of all Members of this House will note who is asking for which negotiating position to be revealed, and what that says about their acceptance of the referendum result.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

8. What steps he has taken to maintain UK access to the Horizon 2020 programme and the Erasmus+ programme after the UK leaves the EU.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union (Mr Robin Walker)]

As the Prime Minister set out in her Florence speech, the Government would like to continue working with the EU on ways to promote the long-term economic development of our continent. That includes continuing to take part in specific programmes that are greatly to the UK’s and EU’s joint advantage, such as those promoting science, education and culture, and those promoting our mutual security. This will be a matter for the negotiations.

[Catherine West]

Why has the Secretary of State not engaged on the issue with more energy with the Commission? If access is not maintained, will there be a commitment to funding UK researchers as third-country participants?

[Mr Walker]

We are engaged with great energy on this issue, but of course the structure of the talks means that this is for the future partnership. We have published a paper on these issues setting out our intention and a very open offer to the EU to discuss these issues. We look forward to seeing its papers in response, but they have not been published yet.

Exiting the EU: Sectoral Impact Assessments

Catherine West Excerpts

Wednesday 1st November 2017 Commons Chamber

[Keir Starmer]

If the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union was right in his evidence to the Brexit Committee, it appears that the Health Secretary has not read the reports because he has not had them.

The Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union was asked by the Brexit Committee whether the reports had been passed to the Scottish Government. In reply to a question from the SNP spokesperson, the Secretary of State said that he did not know whether they had been shared with the Scottish Government. These reports, which are in lockdown and cannot be seen and not a word of which can be disclosed, have not been read by the Cabinet, and nobody knows whether they have been disclosed to the Scottish Government, yet nothing can be made available to this House.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

Does my right hon. and learned Friend agree that there is a hint of almost religious fervour with the idea that if we keep our eyes closed and our ears blocked, perhaps everything will be okay as we leap off the cliff into the unknown.

[Keir Starmer]

I am grateful for that intervention.

--- Later in debate ---

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

Each of us has a responsibility as a parliamentarian—it is the basic reason why we are here—to represent those who have put us here. It is our duty as parliamentarians to ask questions and gain information in order to make correct judgments on how we vote. That is why we want to see the impact assessments for the various sectors. Speaking for my constituency, the three sectors that I am most concerned about are construction, production and the creative industries, and medical services and social care. I simply want to be able to explain to my constituents the way that I will be voting over the coming months.

[Chris Ruane]

Would my hon. Friend add the British aerospace industry to that list? In north Wales, 7,000 jobs in one factory in Broughton depend on it. With 100,000 jobs in total, would aerospace be up there on her list of sectors that we need information on?

--- Later in debate ---

[Catherine West]

My hon. Friend makes an excellent point. Knowing the facts and figures behind the Government’s thinking in various sectors is even more important in the regions, where there can be an over-dependence on one industry.

Parliament should be hugged, not pushed away. The Government should be hugging us, because they need us. In some ways, the Government’s Front-Bench team needs us more than we need them. I would welcome another election; let us have one tomorrow. We have to work together on this, but we can work together only if Members do not feel frustrated and left in the dark.

[Seema Malhotra]

My hon. Friend is making a powerful speech about the impact on industries in our local areas. Does she agree that the medical services and social care sector is incredibly important in all our constituencies? A leaked Department of Health report from earlier this year suggested that there could be a shortfall of 40,000 nurses if there is a hard Brexit—

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Mrs Eleanor Laing)]

Order. Before the hon. Member for Hornsey and Wood Green (Catherine West) answers that intervention, Mr Deputy Speaker has just made it clear, and I reiterate it, that if people make long interventions at this point in the debate, they are depriving someone else who has been sitting here all afternoon of the opportunity to speak at all.

[Catherine West]

I agree with my hon. Friend and thank her for all her excellent forensic questioning in this area. It is sad, however, that she has had to spend hours and hours asking those questions when it is really our basic right as parliamentarians to have the information we need for this important treaty making. It is probably the most important constitutional question that we in this Parliament will have to grapple with. My worry is that we could be heading for a crash course, which relates to my intervention on the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) about there being an element of people not wanting to know the facts and figures. Those who have already made up their mind want to be positive, but perhaps they also want to ignore the facts. That is the opposite extreme, and opposites are unnecessary and probably bad in this regard.

[John Redwood]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Hon. Members]

Just carry on.

[Catherine West]

Go on.

[John Redwood]

Will the hon. Lady tell the House what she has done in the past 16 months to strengthen the British hand and to be positive about things?

[Catherine West]

I have redoubled the number of meetings that I am having, and I am polishing up my Mandarin Chinese so that I can improve our standing with one of our big trading partners. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] It is important that this does not end up like a Pentecostalist meeting where we close our ears and eyes and just sing for the positivity of Brexit. We should engage our minds as well our emotions when dealing with the taxing and difficult question of what the future will hold for our children and their children.

I want to make a quick point about the cliff-edge scenario. I am unsure whether we have really explored it. None of us wants it. The Prime Minister said in her Florence speech that she wants a transition deal just as much as those of us who are sensible and also want it. Let us imagine, in the worst of all possible worlds, that we are on a crash course leading towards the cliff edge. I am deeply concerned about inflation, flat wages, the more than £200 billion of household debt and the fact that interest rates are going up this week. These are deeply concerning and worrying times for our economy, with or without Brexit. I am worried about the combination of factors, which is why we need a proper analysis from the Treasury of the broad overall picture of non-Brexit-related issues.

There are other people whose opinions we must trust. For example, the former chief mandarin of the Foreign Office, Sir Simon Fraser, has said that the differences between us in our debates on Brexit mean that the UK has been “absent” from the formal negotiations, perhaps leading to this terrible cliff-edge scenario.

Crashing out could lead to real questions about the safety of our nuclear facilities, and other Members have mentioned the European Aviation Safety Agency. Air tickets can be purchased up to a year in advance, which brings us close to three or four months before March 2019. What will we do about the lack of alignment and regulation on other transport questions and on agriculture, financial services and banking?

I finish on the human question of the European citizens in our communities. Not a surgery goes by without a European citizen coming to explain that, despite living in the UK for 37 years, contributing to the economy and bringing up a family, they feel deeply alienated and angry. The rhetoric around xenophobic feelings and around whether they feel accepted or not seems to have been heightened. Some families even want to return to European countries after living in the UK for 37 years, which is a terrible shame, all because of the lack of certainty and the lack of a scientific approach to Brexit. The Home Office lacks a firm approach, and it is constantly moving the goalposts. Crashing out of the EU would be worst for EU nationals, who would be left completely in limbo. The impact in certain regions would be horrendous, and the health sector would probably be worst affected, as our NHS is so dependent.

Will the Government please stop their confusion, division and chaos? Please do not drag us back again and again on this point. Be firm and give us the information that our constituents expect.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Catherine West Excerpts

Ping Pong: House of Commons
Monday 13th March 2017 Commons Chamber

[Keir Starmer]

There is a reason why the amendment spells that out in detail: it is precisely what the Minister said at the Dispatch Box should be the position last time this was debated. Lords amendment 2 carefully reflects what the Government say is their assurance, so such a question about the amendment should be put to the Secretary of State.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

Does my hon. and learned Friend agree that, given the high level of uncertainty, the only sage and proper thing to do is to give us one more chance before the European Parliament has an opportunity to—[Interruption.]

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Catherine West Excerpts

Tuesday 31st January 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Duncan Smith]

I do not doubt that at all. In fact, so successful was he that he managed to tie the following Government in all sorts of knots as they sought to pursue his policies without any of the same drive or intelligence in how they were going to do it.

My purpose today is simply to explain that I opposed the Maastricht treaty. In case anybody asks, I did not actually want to leave the European Union. I originally voted to join the European Union, or the Common Market as it was then, but when it came to Maastricht I decided that there was something fundamentally wrong with the direction of travel. I am going to raise the name of an individual whom not many people in this House ever raise in debate: Altiero Spinelli. He was essentially the architect of both the Single European Act and the Maastricht treaty. His purpose was quite clear. He believed that the whole purpose of the European project was the eradication of the nature of the nation state. He said:

“If a post war order is established in which each State retains its complete national sovereignty, the basis for a Third World War would still exist”.

I do not agree with him, and I never did. The reason we fell into the terrible cataclysm of the second world war following the great depression was the absence of democracy and, most importantly, robust democratic institutions in many European states. War will never happen where we have democracy and strong democratic institutions with open trade. Such democracies simply will not do that. My sense was that the European Union’s direction of travel from Maastricht was bound on a course that was going to lead to the UK ultimately deciding that it can no longer stay within it.

I agree with much of what my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Rushcliffe said. I have come to a different conclusion, but I fully respect anyone who decides to vote against the triggering of article 50. They were sent here to use their judgment. Yes, the British people have made a decision, but the job of an MP is to use judgment on such matters. If somebody chooses to oppose the Bill, I will respect that. I will disagree with them, but they deserve a hearing and we should in no way attempt to shout them down.

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for giving way and for his thoughts on democracy. Does he accept that Members in this House have less information about this crucial decision than the average local ward councillor has about their annual budget?

[Mr Duncan Smith]

I am grateful for that intervention, but I do not agree. Given the past 40 years, if anybody in this House does not have enough information to make a decision, I wonder where they have been for all those years—or the years that they have spent here. Of course we have enough information. The hon. Lady is referring to the publication of the White Paper, which the Government have said they will publish. I stand by that and think it is a good idea. I must say, however, that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister made a pretty good of fist of it in her recent speech, in which she set out the 12 points that will guide her negotiation. I hope that the Government reprint them with a couple of diagrams, the odd explanation and a nice picture, which will make an excellent White Paper.

I absolutely do not agree with my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Rushcliffe that my party is somehow anti-immigrant. When I was in government with him, both in coalition and subsequently, we did more than any other country to help those who were displaced as a result of the wars in Syria, Libya and Afghanistan. As a Government and as a country, we should be proud of our support for immigration. Whatever other countries choose to do, we put ourselves on the side of those who flee terror.

--- Later in debate ---

[Catherine West (Hornsey and Wood Green) (Lab)]

How did we get to this point, with a nation so divided? The weekend after 23 June, I held an advice surgery, because a lot of European nationals live in Hornsey and Wood Green. Five hundred people came to see me to express their distress, and that was not just European nationals but everybody, from across the community. That said so much about how many of our communities feel about this question.

I am delighted to have my right hon. Friend the Member for Tottenham (Mr Lammy) on the Bench next to me, because he has taken such a brave stance over the last eight months on this question. Anyone who reads his Twitter feed will see that he has received the most enormous abuse, which has been uncomfortable for those of us who care deeply about race relations, particularly in London and around.

I would also like to talk about the way in which we have come to this decision-making process. Many of us came into the House through local government. As a council leader, if I had tried to bring forward a decision in my council on the basis of a speech and a couple of letters to the local newspaper, my councillors would have hounded me out of the council room, and they would have been quite right. Indeed, the chair of my Labour group and secretary would have been hammering me, so I feel that we have not questioned enough, including internally, within the governing majority party. Despite our best efforts from the Front Benches of other parties, I feel that we have simply not had the numbers to hold the Government to account on crucial votes. That is a cause of great regret.

I want briefly to talk about the economy. We know that the statistics are not quite there yet, but household debt is up 13% in the last 12 months. We also know that our currency is dropping. The dropping of the currency is an external assessment of our economy, which is a cause for concern as well. We know that when the economy declines, it is not the well-off communities that are affected, but the poorer ones. Mr Farage famously said:

“I think the social side of this matters more than pure market economics,”

admitting that being poorer could be the result of leaving the European Union. Somehow, I suspect that poverty will not apply to Mr Farage, who does not look as though he is getting any poorer.

I want briefly to return to a point that the right hon. Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Mr Duncan Smith) made earlier in the debate about Mr Spinelli, who wrote about the rise of nationalism. I believe this is a cause for concern. One hundred years ago, my great-uncle died at Passchendaele. When I take my children to see his grave and try to explain why he died and what he died for, I talk about values such as liberty and trying to work with people whom we do not get on with, and I think back to the 42 years of peace and prosperity that we have had. We are in a really dangerous place internationally, and I worry about our realignment with the US, a country that is perhaps not as open to free trade right now as we would like it to be, or to different ideas or the different people who make up this incredible globe.

I want to express my fear and concern that leaving the European Union may also lead to a poorer future, not just for jobs and the economy, and not just because sterling is going down, but because we are making this decision for young people. Many of us here voted twice on whether 16 to 18-year-olds should have had the right to participate in the referendum. Sadly, we were defeated twice, despite the advice from the other place. I think that is a terrible pity, because I feel that they think we are slamming the door on their future. I am also a strong Unionist, and I feel sad because I think this will have a detrimental effect on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. There are a great many questions there that have not been answered. We have not been given any information, and we have not been brought in on this wonderful secret negotiation that is happening. I do not feel ready to trust.

The best power that I can use is my vote. When tomorrow comes, I shall not vote to support Second Reading, because I think this is the only way to make the Government listen to the concerns that many of us hold, and hold very dearly. It is not just about jobs and the economy; it is about our children and our grandchildren, and about peace and prosperity.