Oral Answers to Questions

John Glen Excerpts

Tuesday 6th November 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mr Adrian Bailey (West Bromwich West) (Lab/Co-op)]

4. What assessment he has made of the potential effect on the OBR’s Budget 2018 forecasts of the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

[The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (John Glen)]

The Office for Budget Responsibility has set out its forecasting assumptions regarding EU exit and will update them when the details of a deal justify a forecast change. Parliament will be presented with the appropriate analysis to make an informed decision ahead of the vote on the final deal. It is in the interests of the EU and the UK to strike a deal, and we remain confident that we are on track to achieve a mutually advantageous deal in the near future.

[Mr Bailey]

The Chancellor’s Budget measures were based on OBR assumptions of an orderly withdrawal from the EU and a 21-month continuation in the customs union. In the event of a no deal, will the Minister share with the House the assessment he has made of the potential decline in tax revenues and consequential changes to his tax and spending plans in the Budget?

[John Glen]

The Government are fully committed to achieving a good deal with the EU. We will make lots of assessments during that process, but our mind is focused on achieving that deal and the Government will achieve it.

[Nicky Morgan (Loughborough) (Con)]

Mr Speaker, through you, may I assure all Members of this House that the Treasury Committee will take very seriously the job of scrutinising the analysis produced by the Treasury on the final deal on behalf of all Members, and will let Members know the conclusions that we draw from that before the meaningful vote?

My hon. Friend the Minister may well be aware of the OBR discussion paper published last month on Brexit and the OBR’s forecasts. Paragraph 1.27, which talks about the risk of a disorderly Brexit, says that

“while not a direct parallel, it is worth noting that the ‘Three-Day Week’ introduced in early 1974…was associated with a fall in output of…under 3 per cent that quarter.”

The shadow Chancellor might think that the 1970s was a good way to manage the economy, but can my hon. Friend assure us that he does not think that that is the way forward for this country?

[John Glen]

That is certainly not the way forward. I can assure my right hon. Friend that we are doing everything we can to plan for all eventualities. That is why I am taking through a large number of statutory instruments to take account of all possibilities next year, but we are working on, and focused on, achieving a good deal.

[Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) (Lab)]

There is no estimate in the Red Book for the benefits to tax revenues of the measures that we took in the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act 2018. Is that because Ministers are holding that money in their back pocket in case of a no deal?

[John Glen]

What is clear is that we will have greater freedom in terms of how we implement a sanctions and anti-money laundering regime, and that will give us the opportunity to fix measures that are appropriate for this country, and the revenues will flow from that.

[Leo Docherty (Aldershot) (Con)]

Surely the greatest threat to this country is not no deal, but a Labour Government and the tax bombshell that would come with them.

[John Glen]

I agree wholeheartedly with that characterisation of the risks associated with the Opposition ever getting into power. The enormous increases in taxes for businesses would hit consumers and be appalling for the state of the economy.

[Lee Rowley (North East Derbyshire) (Con)]

5. What steps he is taking to increase productivity in the economy.

--- Later in debate ---

[Gareth Thomas (Harrow West) (Lab/Co-op)]

T4. The co-operative movement in the UK has a turnover of £36 billion. Given that it employs thousands, and that thousands will benefit as a result of the economic and social benefits that co-operatives bring, why was there no mention of the co-op movement in the Budget?

[The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (John Glen)]

As the hon. Gentleman knows, the co-operative movement is very important to our economy; we have met to discuss various aspects of its future. I am happy to meet him again to discuss the matters that he wishes to bring forward.

[Luke Hall (Thornbury and Yate) (Con)]

T7. Does the Budget not demonstrate that we have turned around the economic catastrophe left to us by the Labour party to deliver billions of pounds for public services, and tax cuts for millions of people up and down this country?

--- Later in debate ---

[Chris Bryant (Rhondda) (Lab)]

If we took every single person who has suffered a major traumatic brain injury—for instance, from a car crash—from needing four people in order to be able to wash, clothe and look after themselves to needing just one, and thereby leading a more independent life, we could save the taxpayers £5 billion a year. May I meet with the Chancellor to explain all this?

[John Glen]

rose—

[Chris Bryant]

With the Chancellor.

[John Glen]

As the hon. Gentleman knows, I have a previous interest in this subject. I commend the excellent work he has done with the all-party group on acquired brain injury, and am happy to meet him to discuss the matters he has raised.

[Mr Speaker]

Before we come to the first of the two urgent questions, I remind the House that the sitting will be suspended at 1.45 pm and will resume at 3.15 pm. That is to accommodate the fact that significant numbers of colleagues are going to the commemorative Remembrance service in St Margaret’s church. It might be useful for colleagues to know that both urgent questions will therefore finish by 1.45 pm.