Oral Answers to Questions
John Healey Excerpts(3 weeks, 4 days ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
As you did, Mr Speaker, I pay tribute to the Armed Forces Minister at his last Defence questions. Since the last election, we have had five Chancellors, four Foreign Secretaries, three Prime Ministers and two Defence Secretaries, but only one Armed Forces Minister. He has been a rare constant in the turmoil of Government, totally committed to defence. We thank him for that and wish him well.
On the Indo-Pacific, we welcome last week’s updated defence agreement with Australia, further progress on AUKUS, and today’s 10-year plan for Barrow to support AUKUS. This is our most important strategic alliance beyond NATO, so why has the Defence Secretary given the leadership of key parts of AUKUS to the most junior Minister in his Department?
Grant Shapps
As I explained, I have just been in Australia talking about AUKUS. I have previously been to Japan, I think at least twice but possibly three times, on AUKUS, and to Italy—sorry, not to Italy, obviously, on AUKUS; that was on GCAP, but with an Indo-Pacific tilt. I agree with the right hon. Gentleman’s comments about the Armed Forces Minister, but I am interested to hear his comments on the Indo-Pacific. Back in 2021, when the integrated review suggested a tilt to the Indo-Pacific, he called it a serious flaw in the programme, and urged us not to defocus from elsewhere in the world.
John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
We condemn the deadly terrorist attack in Moscow on Friday, and our thoughts are with all those affected, but the attack must not become a Kremlin cover for Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine. In recent days, we have seen multiple Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, yet the last UK air defence support was announced last year. When is the next one?
Grant Shapps
I join the right hon. Gentleman in sending our condolences following the horrific terror attack. He is absolutely right to say that we are aware of no connection whatsoever with Ukraine; indeed, ISIS has claimed responsibility. We must resist Putin’s efforts to try to link the two.
With regard to air defence, there have been much more recent attempts to aid our Ukrainian friends, including through the International Fund for Ukraine, which has laid 27 contracts. We have a £900 million fund, run by the UK on behalf of a large number of other countries.
John Healey
Of course, anything more recent was from the International Fund for Ukraine, not the UK, which is why we strongly welcomed the £2.5 billion of UK military support for 2024. However, for nearly three months since that announcement, Ministers have said that the first deliveries to Ukraine will not happen until Q1 of the new financial year. Wars do not follow financial years, so when will the UK move beyond this stop-start military aid and help Ukraine with the spring/summer offensive?
Grant Shapps
I can tell the right hon. Gentleman that we have a constant flow of foreign materiel that we are buying and sending into Ukraine. I recently announced £325 million for British-Ukrainian drones, and we have increased the overall amount of money going to Ukraine from the previous two years’ £2.3 billion to £2.5 billion. I gently say to the right hon. Gentleman—this has been raised by a couple of my colleagues today—that he needs to explain how the Opposition would manage an increased budget for Ukraine, when their plan is to cut £7 billion from the overall defence budget.
Armed Forces Readiness and Defence Equipment
John Healey Excerpts(4 weeks, 1 day ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I started by knocking a glass of water over when I came into the Chamber, Madam Deputy Speaker, and I have finished by doing so.
I thank all Members for their contributions today, but I also thank the armed forces, as we all should, for everything that they do to keep us safe. Our UK armed forces are essential not just to the defence of our nation but to the members of our NATO alliance, and also to our UK role in upholding international law. We respect, as the world does, the professionalism with which they do their job.
I welcome the further AUKUS agreements that that are being signed this week between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. This is our most important strategic defence alliance outside NATO. It is so much more than a big submarine building programme. It demands UK national endeavour and UK national leadership, and it has the complete support of the Labour party.
President Putin claimed 88% of all the votes in last week’s Russian poll. It was a total sham of an election, but a serious moment for UK defence. Over the next decade, we will face Putin and an alliance of aggression from autocrats who have contempt for international law, and who squander freely the lives of their own people.
The Chair of the Defence Committee, the right hon. Member for Horsham (Sir Jeremy Quin), opened the debate by saying that we should start where all defence debates should start—with the threats that we face. The threats that we face will only increase, which is why we need a new era for defence, why these reports are so important, and why this debate is so important.
Madam Deputy Speaker, before you took the Chair, Mr Deputy Speaker said of this debate that it promised to be one of the best informed on all sides, and he was right. The right hon. Member for Horsham brought his experience not just as a former Minister, but as the Chair of the Defence Committee. I pay tribute to him, because we now agree that it is right to move away from competition by default and to see the defence sector as a “critical strategic asset”, as he called it, which is a reflection of the work that he has done.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Warley (John Spellar) asked the right question: what are we doing to create new industrial capacity in the UK and in collaboration with close allies?
My hon. Friend the Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier) said that she has seen the arguments and excuses, yet no efficiencies arrive. That was captured not just in her report, which is the subject of this debate, but in other reports that her Public Accounts Committee has undertaken into defence procurement since 2019, and in nine National Audit Office reports looking at the same problems.
The right hon. Member for Rayleigh and Wickford (Mr Francois) made a very moving speech about his father’s D-day experience. I particularly enjoyed the emotive part of his speech, where he got stuck into the Government and the MOD.
The hon. Member for Devizes (Danny Kruger) was quite right to say that we are now in a moment of existential risk, because we are not ready to fight the wars that we may face. It is a theme that picked up by the right hon. Member for Hereford and South Herefordshire (Jesse Norman), who said that we should be looking at not just our operational readiness, which is the subject of the Defence Committee’s report, but our strategic readiness. Part of that is about taking responsibility as a nation to develop greater resilience and, interestingly, greater talent, including in our political parties and in this House.
My right hon. Friend the Member for North Durham (Mr Jones) made a very strong argument for defence plans that are based on reality and on honesty about the UK’s role in the world, and especially the priority that we must give to our role in NATO. He, too, said that we must see defence investment directed first to benefiting the UK’s economy.
The right hon. Member for Elmet and Rothwell (Sir Alec Shelbrooke) has been a Defence Minister too, and he leads the NATO parliamentary delegation from this country. He was right to remind us that for NATO member nations, article 3, on the obligation to defend their own country, is as important and fundamental as article 5, on the obligation to defend each other.
My hon. Friend the Member for South Shields (Mrs Lewell-Buck) spoke in some detail about the equipment shortfalls that the Defence Committee’s report lays out, and rightly spelled out the concern that the MOD is covering up the scale of the problems by not providing information to the public or Parliament. That was echoed by the hon. Member for Tiverton and Honiton (Richard Foord), who said that operational planning assumptions, which were published up until 2015, are no longer published.
The hon. Member for Rochdale (George Galloway) was right to talk about the concealment of truth about the state of our armed forces, but in fairness to the right hon. Member for Rayleigh and Wickford, that is exactly what the Defence Committee—he played a leading part in producing its report—is arguing the Government are not doing. Defending our people and our allies is not “Alice in Wonderland” or Gilbert and Sullivan; it is what people have a right to expect of their Government and Parliament.
Finally, we heard from the hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire (Martin Docherty-Hughes), who speaks for the SNP and has great experience on defence. I followed his three P’s, and I was particularly struck by his discussion of people. There is a requirement to do better in recruiting and retaining members of the armed forces. He argued that it is not just about numbers and that our forces must better reflect the diversity of the people they serve to protect.
Martin Docherty-Hughes
I am very grateful to the right hon. Member for making those points, but I would push him on the issue of an armed forces representative body. Is it something that he and his party remain committed to?
John Healey
No, it is not. We have a much better solution, which is to legislate for an independent armed forces commissioner, like there is in Germany. They will be a voice for armed forces personnel and the families who support them, and will report to Parliament, not Ministers. In that way, we can reinforce the accountability of our military to this House and the public, as well as making it more responsive to those who serve. I will come to some points on that, if I may.
I pay tribute to all contributors to this debate, particularly those who are members of the two Committees on whose reports it is based. As they know, there are deep and long-running problems across defence, but I want to marshal my remarks into three main areas of findings in both reports: first, the hollowing out and underfunding of our armed forces; secondly, defence mismanagement and waste; and thirdly, the increasing lack of openness that we have seen recently from the Ministry of Defence.
On hollowing out and underfunding, my hon. Friend the Member for South Shields reminded us that it was the last Defence Secretary, the right hon. Member for Wyre and Preston North (Mr Wallace), who told this House last January that the armed forces have been “hollowed out and underfunded” over the last 14 years. These reports reinforce that sobering assessment of our UK military power and readiness.
The Defence Committee found that there are
“capability shortfalls and stockpile shortages”
across the forces, that resilience has been undermined by reductions, and that there is a
“crisis in the recruitment and retention of both Regulars and Reserves”.
Our armed forces are
“losing personnel faster than they can recruit them.”
The hollowing out and underfunding is getting worse, not better.
The Minister for Defence Procurement (James Cartlidge)
Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
John Healey
The Minister can have his say later.
The Defence Committee report says that capability gaps are growing, reliance on allies is increasing, and we now have the largest ever deficit in the MOD’s equipment plan, at £16.9 billion. The PAC concluded that there is an “unmistakable deterioration” in the MOD’s financial position.
Like the right hon. Member for Rayleigh and Wickford, I have brought along the Red Book. I have studied tables 2.1 and 2.2. The Treasury and the House of Commons Library confirm a reduction in defence budgets, which will be cut by £2.5 billion in cash terms for the next financial year. These are the budgeted baseline figures on which defence can plan, procure, deploy and develop capabilities—not the one-off add-ons for specific purposes, such as nuclear or Ukraine, which are the figures that Ministers too often use to inflate the figures on total spending and disguise the real budgets. This is where the country is left after 14 years of Conservative failure on defence, and the right hon. Member for Rayleigh and Wickford said that this is wholly unworthy of a Conservative Government. I say it is wholly unworthy of a British Government.
John Healey
I will not. The Minister has 15 minutes in which to make his point. [Interruption.] Okay, I will give way.
James Cartlidge
I am very grateful to the right hon. Gentleman. I have a specific question: does he support our target of 2.5%?
John Healey
As has been pointed out in this debate, 2.5% is an aspiration for when economic circumstances allow—there is no timetable, no plan and no credibility. The last time this country spent 2.5% of GDP on defence was in 2010, under a Labour Government.
I turn to mismanagement and waste. My hon. Friend the Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch said that mismanagement and waste runs widely across defence. The PAC report found that only two of the 46 MOD equipment programmes are rated as “highly likely” to be delivered on time, on budget and on quality. Many defence procurement programmes are being delayed and are over budget. Ministers are failing British taxpayers and British troops but, most concerning of all, they have no plan to fix this. My hon. Friend said that one of our major concerns is that the MOD is putting off decisions—serious threats, serious problems and a serious lack of action from the Government to fix them.
The third area I want to mention is transparency. Civilian authority over our UK military involves accountability to elected civilian Ministers and elected Members of this House. Reducing MOD transparency is a theme that runs through both reports. The Defence Committee says it is “unacceptable” and the PAC says the MOD has refused even to publish a full equipment plan this year—that is the Minister’s responsibility—despite
“undertaking the same depth of financial analysis as in previous years.”
That should worry all Members, and it has been a growing concern of mine for some months. Whether it is Royal Navy ships’ days at sea or MACA agreements struck with other Departments, data that had previously been published and released to me is now being withheld. Instead of responding to my questions, Ministers are now saying, “We will write to you instead.” I am currently awaiting 26 letters, some of them dating back as far as December.
There are, of course, legitimate security reasons why some information cannot be released, but there are also obvious political reasons why a Government nearing an election would not want some of this information to be made public.
The Defence Committee expressed an important and clear warning in its report. Threats are increasing, just as concern is increasing about the state of our armed forces not just from the members of these Committees and from Members on both sides of the House but from Ministers, too. The Minister for Security, the Minister of State, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the right hon. Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed (Anne-Marie Trevelyan), and even the Defence Secretary are publicly challenging their own Government’s defence policy in the press. The Defence Secretary is making arguments in the Daily Mail that he failed to win with the Chancellor. I feel for the Minister for Defence Procurement, who is almost the last man standing by the Government’s defence policy.
Labour will always do what is required to defend the country. If we win the confidence of the British people at the next election, our pledge is that Britain will be better defended under Labour. First, we will reinforce the protection of the UK homeland. Secondly, we will ensure that our NATO obligations are met in full. Thirdly, we will make our allies our strategic strength. Fourthly, we will renew the nation’s moral contract with those who serve. And fifthly, we will drive deep reform of defence, and we will direct defence investment first to British jobs and British business. This is how Labour will make our country secure at home and strong abroad. We will consult across the House in doing so because we want our plan to be not just Labour’s plan but Britian’s plan to be better defended in future.
UK Armed Forces
John Healey Excerpts(1 month, 1 week ago)
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Urgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.
Each Urgent Question requires a Government Minister to give a response on the debate topic.
This information is provided by Parallel Parliament and does not comprise part of the offical record
John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
(Urgent Question): To ask the Secretary of State for Defence to make a statement on the state of the UK armed forces.
The Minister for Defence Procurement (James Cartlidge)
It is an honour to set out how our outstanding armed forces are doing incredible work around the world, protecting the UK and our allies. That includes operating on every single NATO mission, supporting Ukraine against Putin’s aggression, and tackling Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red sea. We are spending a record amount on defence. That includes an extra £24 billion in cash terms between 2020 and 2025, which is the largest sustained increase since the end of the cold war. The Government fully recognise the growing security threat, which is why we have set out our longer term aspiration to invest 2.5% of GDP on defence when fiscal and economic circumstances allow. We are already spending more than 2% of GDP on defence, exceeding our NATO target. We are delivering the capabilities that our forces need, significantly increasing spending on defence equipment to £288.6 billion over the next decade, and introducing a new procurement model to improve acquisition.
For the Royal Navy, that includes Dreadnought, Astute and AUKUS submarines, as well as fleet solid support ships Type 26 and Type 21 frigates. For the Army, Future Soldier will deliver the largest transformation in more than 20 years, re-equipping and re-organising to be more deployable and lethal. The RAF will become an increasingly digitally empowered force, with the Global Combat Air Programme providing a sixth-generation fighter jet capability, building on that provided by our Typhoons and F-35 fifth-generation aircraft today. Our Defence Command Paper 2023 set out our plan to deliver a credible war fighting force, generated and employed to protect the nation and help it prosper now and in the years to come. We will embody a fully integrated approach to deterrence and defence, including across all domains and across Government, by exploiting all levers of state power, and with allies and partners.
John Healey
I pay tribute to HMS Richmond’s actions over the weekend, defending shipping in the Red sea against a large-scale Houthi attack. Those are the demands that our armed forces face as threats increase.
The Defence Secretary owes the public and Parliament an explanation. He said that we are moving into “a pre-war world”, and ahead of last week’s Budget he wrote to the Chancellor and stated that
“we must take bold action in your Budget to commit to defence spending increasing to 2.5% in 2024. It would re-establish our leadership in Europe.”
But there is a growing gap between the Defence Secretary’s rhetoric and the reality for our armed forces, who are charged with preparing for this new dangerous era. In the Budget there was no new money for defence, nothing new for Ukraine, and nothing for Gaza or the UK’s operations in the middle east. Worse, both the Treasury and the House of Commons Library confirm that the defence budget will be cut by £2.5 billion in cash terms in this next financial year. The 2.5% of GDP, which the Minister referred to, was not mentioned once in the Treasury Red Book; the last time this country spent 2.5% of GDP on defence was in 2010 under a Labour Government.
While Putin wages war in Europe, Ministers are warring with each other. Challenging defence policy in public, the Minister for Security was on TV this morning calling for 2.5% now. That is a serious breakdown in collective ministerial responsibility, but I am most concerned about the serious state of the UK armed forces. What signal does it send to our adversaries when our forces have been hollowed out and underfunded for the last 14 years; when the Public Accounts Committee finds the largest ever funding deficit in the MOD’s equipment plans; when the British Army has been cut to its smallest size since Napoleon; when forces recruitment targets have been missed each and every year for 14 years; and when satisfaction with service life has hit a record low?
I have one simple question for the Minister: where is the plan for better defending Britain? It is clear that our armed forces cannot afford another five years of a Conservative Government.
James Cartlidge
I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for his comments about HMS Richmond. I am sure that we all agree and pay tribute to our Royal Navy personnel, who are there ultimately to defend not only themselves but freedom of navigation for the rest of the world. We should recognise the importance of the role that they are undertaking on behalf of our Government.
The right hon. Gentleman talked about the funding for next year. To be clear, that will represent a 1.8% increase in real terms and not the cut that he suggested. If we spend the money that we expect, it will amount to £55.6 billion—about 2.3% of GDP, which is traditionally how we measure our spending. That is significantly above the just under 2.1% in 2019, so it is a significant increase as a percentage of GDP.
The right hon. Gentleman also talked about recruitment, which is an important issue. My right hon. Friend the Minister for Defence People and Families is doing a lot of work on that and, as the right hon. Gentleman will be aware, in January we saw the highest number of applications to the Army in six years. A more positive picture is developing, recognising the importance of the mission. We should not talk down our armed forces when we expect people to apply and to want to be recruited into them.
I note the range of comments about the 2.5% and want to make several points. The first is that the right hon. Gentleman said that we had not spent that percentage since Labour were in power. Well, something extraordinary happened at the end of their time in power: they crashed the economy, we had a full-on banking crisis and a letter was left for our Government saying “there is no money.” It is no surprise that we had to take difficult decisions, but despite that we have shown our commitment to the armed forces.
When he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Prime Minister approved the largest ever increase in defence spending since the cold war, and there has been further money since then in the Budget. Of course, we are committed to 2.5% when the circumstances allow. For all the right hon. Gentleman’s bluster, he has not even committed to matching our current spending on defence, let alone 2.5%; we challenged him on that at Defence orals and he was not able to give any commitment whatever to spending.
The public know where we stand: 2.3% in the year ahead and 2.5% when the economics allow. We do not have a clue where Labour stands.
Situation in the Red Sea
John Healey Excerpts(1 month, 3 weeks ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I thank the Defence Secretary for advance sight of his statement. We accept that the weekend’s airstrikes were legal, limited, and targeted to minimise the risk of civilian casualties. We pay tribute to the total professionalism of all forces personnel involved in the operations, which were conducted to protect shipping in the Red sea and uphold freedom of navigation for all nations. As the Defence Secretary said, the Houthis have been attacking ships of all nations: Chinese, Bulgarian and French ships have been targeted; Danish, Greek and UK ships have been hit; and even aid vessels destined for Yemen have been in the firing line. The UK and US Navies have been forced to shoot down drones in self-defence.
Today, the British Chambers of Commerce reports that more than half of British exporters are being hit by higher costs and delays because of the Houthi attacks. The Houthis are threatening international trade and maritime security, and putting civilian and military lives in serious danger. That is why the UN Security Council last month passed a resolution condemning the Houthis’ actions “in the strongest terms”, and demanding that their attacks cease.
We accept that the military action over the weekend was justified, but was it effective? What were the objectives for these latest strikes? Were they fully met? Were the targets at both Sana’a and Bani destroyed? Ministers have said that the aims of earlier strikes were, first, to deter Houthi attacks and, secondly, to degrade their capabilities, but deterrence does not feature in the weekend’s eight-nation joint statement in support of the strikes, and the Defence Secretary said this afternoon that “Houthi intent remains undiminished”. Has deterring attacks been dropped as one of the Government’s objectives for this military action?
As the Defence Secretary says, this was “the fourth such operation” since 11 January. When will the Government judge this to be a sustained campaign? At what stage do the Government think that Parliament needs a say? It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to authorise UK military action and account for it to the public in this House. When will we hear from him?
Any military action against the Houthis must be reinforced by a diplomatic drive in the region aimed at stopping the flow of Iranian weapons, cutting off Houthi finances and settling the civil war in Yemen. What more can the Defence Secretary say about the Government’s wider action? We continue to back the Royal Navy’s role in defence of shipping from all nations through Operation Prosperity Guardian. How is that US-led taskforce co-ordinating with Operation Aspides, the European Union’s new naval presence in the Red sea?
Finally, I totally reject Houthi claims that firing missiles and drones at ships from around the world is somehow linked to the conflict in Gaza. Those attacks do absolutely nothing for the Palestinians, whose agonies are extreme. Last week, Parliament passed Labour’s motion calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. We all want: an end to the fighting, now; no ground offensive in Rafah; all hostages released; and aid to Gaza ramped up greatly. Let us come together this week to work for a ceasefire that is observed by all sides, and that can build into the political process that is needed if we are to secure lasting peace, through a two-state solution, for both Palestine and Israel.
Grant Shapps
I am grateful for the right hon. Gentleman’s comments. He asked a series of questions, and I will respond directly.
On effectiveness, we believe that this set of attacks was effective, and early reconnaissance shows as much, as I outlined in my statement. As ever, it will take a few days to get a full picture, but we have no reason to think that the action was not entirely successful.
We very much intend our attacks on Houthi infrastructure to be a deterrent. The Houthis think that they can continue their actions; our strikes will ensure that they understand the consequences of those actions and the price to pay for them, but perhaps other people, controlling other waterways, will also understand that the world will not simply stand back and allow those actions to take place.
The right hon. Gentleman asks about the Prime Minister coming to the House. I gently point out to him that, technically, he is wrong; the Defence Secretary has the legal authority to sign off actions, as part of royal prerogative. Legally, I have responsibility for the attacks, although, as he rightly points out, the Prime Minister came to the House to give the first two statements on them. As the message in each of those statements is similar and I have legal responsibility, it seems proper and right for me to come to the House and respond to questions. We have had very full statements after each round of attacks.
The shadow Defence Secretary is quite right to say that this sits within a much wider diplomatic context. I went into some detail in my comments, but I am happy to talk more about the wider work that is going on in the region to try to bring to a successful conclusion the wider conflict, which is, in my view—and I think I heard him say in his view—nothing to do with why the Houthis are attacking shipping in the Red sea.
Finally, I would just gently say—although many of the SNP are not here—that to claim that the House passed in full agreement a particular resolution last week is a little bit rich given the circumstances.
Ukraine
John Healey Excerpts(1 month, 3 weeks ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I thank the Defence Secretary for his statement. This is his first statement on Ukraine, and he could not have chosen a more important moment, as we mark two years since President Putin’s brutal, illegal invasion began; two years, in which cities have been smashed, hospitals hit by missiles, power plants bombed, civilians raped and children abducted to Russia; two years of war in Europe that has shattered wider European security. His statement today gives this House, on behalf of the British public, a chance to show that the UK is totally united and committed in support for Ukraine, as it fights for its freedoms, its territorial integrity, and its right as a democratic country to decide its own future.
The UK will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes to win. We know that is the strong message that the Prime Minister and the Defence Secretary convey to Ukraine. When the Labour leader met President Zelensky in Kyiv last year, he said that, on military help for Ukraine and on reinforcing NATO allies, the UK Government have had, and will continue to have, the fullest Labour support. Two years on, I am proud that the UK continues to be united on Ukraine; proud that British families have opened up their homes to Ukrainians fleeing Putin’s war; and proud that people across Britain in all walks of life have organised donations and deliveries of assistance to Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are fighting with huge courage, the military and civilians alike. They have regained half the territory taken by Putin and disabled his Black sea fleet. They have developed new weapons at record speed. But Russia is far from a spent force, and if Putin wins he will not stop at Ukraine. The Defence Secretary mentioned Avdiivka, and the forced Ukrainian withdrawal there is a warning to the west. They had the heart to fight but they did not have the ammunition. So as Russia steps up its war effort, as the Defence Secretary said, so must we step up UK support. Putin is not just fighting on the battlefield; this is a war on the diplomatic front, the economic front and the industrial front—a struggle on all fronts against Russian aggression. We need a broad UK plan to help defend Ukraine and defeat Putin.
First, we must ramp up military support throughout 2024 and beyond by implementing the UK agreement, extending UK training and creating a clear path for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Secondly, we must reboot the diplomatic drive to maintain western unity and support and hold Putin to account, by working through the G7, the UN, NATO, the International Criminal Court and a special tribunal for the crime of aggression. Thirdly, we must take immediate action against wider Russian aggression by enforcing sanctions, closing loopholes in the supply chain and reinforcing NATO allies on the Russian border. Fourthly, we must boost UK industrial production by fast-tracking in full the spring Budget’s £2 billion to restock UK armed forces and Ukraine. Fifthly, we must get ready for Ukraine’s recovery with more de-mining help, and enabling seized or frozen Russian state assets to be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Defence of the UK starts in Ukraine, and I am proud of UK leadership on Ukraine. I want still to be proud in six months’ time, so may I press the Defence Secretary? We welcomed the extra 200 Brimstone antitank missiles. Will he now go beyond these ad hoc announcements and set out a fuller military aid action plan? We welcomed the £2.5 billion for 2024. Will every pound be spent on Ukraine, and not on UK operational costs at NATO bases? We strongly endorsed the UK-Ukraine agreement on security co-operation. Will he now follow that up with an implementation plan, so that Ukraine gets the urgent and sustained help it needs? Finally, we backed the Ukrainian homes and visa schemes. Will the Government rethink their decision this week, with no consultation and no notice, to close the family visa scheme? In conclusion, Ukrainians are watching elections around the world very closely this year. That is why when he met President Zelensky, the Labour leader pledged on behalf of Britain:
“There could be a change in Government this year, but there will be no change in Britain’s resolve to stand with Ukraine, confront Russian aggression and pursue Putin for his war crimes.
Grant Shapps
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his support, and indeed all Members of this House from all parties, for the tremendous support that Ukraine has experienced from this Parliament. As he said, whatever else our divisions, no one should be in any doubt about the united voice with which we speak on this subject. He is right to mention the exceptional work done with training. I imagine he has seen some of the Interflex training, and there is no greater pride than seeing, with other world leaders, their own trainers training here in the UK. We can be truly proud of that and, as I mentioned, we will be doing more of it.
The right hon. Gentleman is also right about NATO membership as the ultimate path for Ukraine. We have the 75th anniversary of NATO coming up in summer in Washington D.C., and it is important that the west helps to set that path for Ukraine’s membership even more firmly. He will be pleased to hear that my right hon. Friend the Attorney General is working proactively on the legal matters, as are the Chancellor, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary on sanctions, which will only work, as recent reporting shows, if they are done in a collective manner, including with the G7 and other bodies.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about a military action plan. In conversations with my opposite number, Minister Umerov, as well as President Zelensky and others, what they want is for us to work privately with them on the £2.5 billion, and that is what we are doing. There are strategic reasons for not producing a published plan on that. We will release information to the House as appropriate, but there are military reasons to do it rather differently on this occasion. I reassure the right hon. Gentleman that not only do we spend the published amount, but we go over and above that in a variety of different ways.
The right hon. Gentleman is right about the importance of the partnership co-operation agreement, and we will be publishing a series of follow-ups. For example, one measure is to teach English as the second language for Ukraine, and I know from talking to my right hon. Friend the Education Secretary that 100 universities are in the process of being linked to Ukrainian institutions to press that plan forward, and much else besides is involved with that agreement on security co-operation.
Lastly, the shadow Secretary of State mentions the family visa scheme for Ukrainians. As he knows, I had a Ukrainian family of three and a dog live with us for a year after the invasion, and they are still living in this country. They are keen to return home to build Ukraine back when this war ends. In the meantime, this Government have put in place further visa arrangements, which, if not the most generous in the world, are among them. I know from speaking to the family who lived with me that they were delighted with that statement by the Home Secretary recently.
Oral Answers to Questions
John Healey Excerpts(2 months ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
In the last year of the last Labour Government, we were spending 2.5% of GDP on defence, a level that has not been matched in any of the subsequent 14 Tory years.
Like the Defence Secretary, the Leader of the Opposition and I were in Munich at the weekend, and the urgency of the need for more help for Ukraine ran through every discussion. Everyone was also profoundly moved by the words of Yulia Navalnaya, speaking even after the news of her husband’s death at Putin’s hands. This is the brutality that the Ukrainians are fighting, and this is why UK support must not falter. We strongly back last month’s UK-Ukraine security agreement, which the Defence Secretary has described as “a 100-year alliance”. Will the Government take the necessary next step and provide an implementation plan for this year and future years, to ensure that Ukraine receives the help that it needs now and for tomorrow?
James Heappey
While I am grateful for the history lesson on what was spent under the last Labour Government, the commitment to match our spending in a future Government was conspicuously absent from the right hon. Gentleman’s question. However, let me return to the collegiate spirit in which Defence questions are normally conducted. I absolutely agree that what the Secretary of State set out in his speech about the partnership with Ukraine requires a strategic approach, with very long horizons set for what our co-operation, both industrial and military, could look like.
John Healey
Long horizons are fine, but Ukraine needs more help now. I am concerned about the £2.5 billion for Ukraine that was announced last month and described by the Prime Minister as
“the biggest single package of defence aid to Ukraine since the war began”.—[Official Report, 15 January 2024; Vol. 743, c. 578.]
The Minister has said much the same today. In response to a question from me last week, however, he would not rule out using that money to cover the UK’s operational costs at NATO bases. Will he rule that out today? Will he confirm today that every penny and every pound of the £2.5 billion for Ukraine will go to Ukraine?
James Heappey
I fear that the right hon. Gentleman has missed something over the last two years. The £2.3 billion that the Government have provided for operations to support Ukraine has always included not just the gifting in kind that takes the headlines, but Operation Interflex and other avenues through which we support the Ukrainians. The fact is that next year’s spending and that of the year after will match exactly what we did in previous years, in terms of the breadth of that contribution. It is also true that the long-term strategic alliance that the Secretary of State set out and the commitment year on year to spend more than any other European ally are not mutually exclusive; we are doing both.
John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
The agonies of the Palestinian people are extreme. We all want the fighting to stop now, for hostages to be returned now, for aid to be ramped up now, and a ceasefire that lasts permanently. What is the Defence Secretary doing to help his Israeli counterpart to accept that their threatened offensive against Rafah just cannot happen?
Grant Shapps
I agree with the right hon. Gentleman about the seriousness of the situation. As he has just heard, I visited Israel before the new year and had those conversations directly. I believe that it is in Israel’s interest, obviously in Gaza’s interest, and in the world’s interest to see that immediate cessation followed by a permanent ceasefire. We are doing everything we can to persuade the Israelis of that necessity and to put pressure on Hamas, who still hold hostages—if they were to release them, this thing could finish very quickly. We are also helping by ensuring that we work on plans for what happens in the north of the country and in southern Lebanon.
Situation in the Red Sea
John Healey Excerpts(2 months, 2 weeks ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I thank the Defence Secretary for the advance copy of his statement.
We back the UK-US airstrikes that took place at the weekend to protect shipping in the Red sea. We know that the strikes were carried out against Houthi command centres and weapons stores. We accept that they were limited, necessary and targeted to minimise the risk of civilian casualties. The Houthis are attacking the ships of many nations, threatening maritime security and international trade, and putting civilian and military lives in serious danger. That is why the UN Security Council passed last month a resolution condemning Houthi actions in the strongest possible terms and demanding that their attacks stop.
We accept that the strikes we justified, but will the Defence Secretary confirm that they were also effective? Were the targets selected the targets hit? Was the purpose of destroying the drone control centres at As-Salif and Al-Munirah fully achieved? Ministers have said that the aims of the strikes are, first, to deter Houthi attacks, and secondly, to degrade their capabilities. The first aim has not yet succeeded, as Houthi attacks continue, but is the fact that those attacks are now less sophisticated and more sporadic a sign that the second aim may be succeeding? This is the third UK-US strike in the past three weeks. At what stage do three one-off strikes become a sustained campaign? If this does develop into continuing military action, at what stage will the Government give Parliament a say?
Before I turn to the wider role of UK forces in the Red sea, let me make this point: it is the Prime Minister who should be making this statement to the House, just as he did after the two previous UK strikes on Houthi targets. It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to authorise such UK military action in the name of the Cabinet, advised by others, of course, including and especially the Defence Secretary. The Government risk downgrading respect for the convention that, having given the go-ahead for such action, it is the Prime Minister who then reports directly to this House.
We also back the leading role of the Royal Navy in the continuing defence of shipping from all nations in the Red sea. What action are the Government taking to persuade other countries to join the Prosperity Guardian protection force? How long does the Defence Secretary expect Operation Prosperity Guardian to be needed? How will the EU’s new maritime mission to the Red sea co-ordinate operations with Prosperity Guardian? Two weeks ago, I asked the Defence Secretary if a UK carrier was ready to deploy to the Red sea. We now know that HMS Queen Elizabeth has serious problems, so does the UK still have the option of sending a carrier to the Red sea if required, and if so, when? Military action on its own cannot solve the problems in the region. What is the Government’s diplomatic action to pressure the Houthis to cease their attacks and settle the civil war in Yemen, and to pressure Iran to stop supplying weapons and intelligence to the Houthis?
Finally, like the Defence Secretary, I totally reject the Houthi claims that firing missiles and drones at ships from around the world is somehow linked to the conflict in Gaza. They have been attacking oil tankers and seizing ships for at least five years—not just for the 121 days since 7 October. Those attacks do absolutely nothing for the Palestinian people, whose agonies are now extreme. We want the Gaza fighting to stop now with a humanitarian truce that can build into a sustainable ceasefire, to stop the killing of innocent civilians, get all the remaining hostages out and get much more aid into Gaza. The UK aid efforts must be accelerated. Have any more RAF flights taken off since the Defence Secretary was last in this Chamber, and if not, why not?
Finally, for long-term peace, there has to be a political process that can turn the rhetoric around two states living side by side in peace into reality. The House is united in that UK vision, and I give this commitment from our side: if elected to form the next Government, Labour will lead this new push for peace.
Grant Shapps
First, I welcome the right hon. Gentleman’s support for this action. He asked a series of questions, which I will rattle through. Were the actions effective? Yes, they hit the targets. Were all the targets hit? Again, yes. We are still carrying out surveillance to find out the exact impact, but I think we can be very confident that all the relevant objectives were reached. We combined very closely with our US colleagues, and sometimes interchanged some of those targets with them. The right hon. Gentleman will have noted that, on this occasion, we were involved in dropping munitions on more targets than previously, so we carried a slightly greater weight than before.
The right hon. Gentleman asked whether the action was successful, and rightly pointed out that what we are seeing is rather more sporadic: the attacks, including on HMS Diamond and on merchant shipping, have continued, but in a much more ad hoc fashion. It is perhaps relevant that there has been no attack using multiple different weapons at the same time, which we saw, for example, on 11 January. The degrading will have had some impact on that. I will come back to the right hon. Gentleman’s comments about the Prime Minister at the end—I want to set the record straight.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about Operation Prosperity Guardian. The simple answer, of course, is that none of us knows how long it will need to continue for, but we want it to come to a conclusion as quickly as possible.
We utterly reject any notion that these continued attacks by the Houthis are anything to do with the situation in Gaza. The Houthis are opportunist pirates who are using a situation to their benefit: a few years ago, they did not even support Hamas, but suddenly they want to be their greatest champions. They are over 2,000 kilometres away from Gaza; they are simply using the situation to their advantage, and it is wise for the House to not over-link the two. None the less, the right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right to about the need to see a humanitarian truce and a sustainable ceasefire—that is the Government’s policy. We are working extremely hard to try to achieve that, including through discussions that the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary and myself are having. Just yesterday, I was having those discussions in the middle east.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about RAF flights. The issue is not getting the aid to location—I have been working very closely with the Cypriot Government, for example, on how we can increase the amount of aid. The single biggest problem remains getting the aid into the country. We had some success with getting Kerem Shalom open, but what we really need to see is Ashdod open, in order to route that aid to Kerem Shalom and straight into Gaza. The Government and I will continue to push for that route, but the problem is not the flights taking off; it is the aid getting in.
Finally, turning to the fact that it is myself as Defence Secretary standing at the Dispatch Box, rather than the Prime Minister, the first thing to say is that it is the Secretary of State for Defence who actually has legal responsibility for these actions—who signs off the targets and, indeed, the legal authority. Technically, it is me who should be standing here, other than for the first couple of rounds, where the Prime Minister was dealing with something new and it was therefore very appropriate for him to be at the Dispatch Box.
The wider point that I would gently make to the right hon. Gentleman, though, is that the Prime Minister is in Northern Ireland today, doing incredibly important work—[Interruption.] I hear from a sedentary position the suggestion that we should have been recalled yesterday, but I unsure whether that would have been entirely practical. It is entirely appropriate that the Prime Minister is in Northern Ireland. I would have thought that the House would welcome the fact that that historic breakthrough has been marked by the Prime Minister, and it is very appropriate that I am here today to explain the activity of Saturday night to the House.
Oral Answers to Questions
John Healey Excerpts(3 months, 1 week ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I welcome what the Defence Secretary has to say. These attacks on Red sea shipping must stop. They destabilise regional security, disrupt international trade and put civilian and military lives in danger. We back the UK action with allies in the new maritime protection force, and the joint statement condemning the Houthi attacks that the Secretary of State just mentioned. He announced today but has not mentioned to the House that HMS Richmond is sailing to the Gulf. In the light of these escalating tensions, what other Royal Navy ships has he put on stand-by for the region?
Grant Shapps
I did not mention that specifically because I have already made a written ministerial statement to the House. HMS Richmond is sailing to the region because both HMS Diamond and HMS Lancaster are already there, and eventually they will need to be swapped out. It is not escalation in terms. I want to repeat to the right hon. Gentleman, the House and the country that we will not tolerate trade being impacted globally in the manner in which the Houthis are impacting it. It will have ramifications on everybody’s bills and on the flow of free trade and goods, and it must come to a halt. We have made clear through that joint statement that we are prepared to take action if required. I welcome the right hon. Gentleman’s commitment to support us in that action.
John Healey
When the UK took the important step of joining Operation Prosperity Guardian, the Secretary of State gave the House this update in a written statement. He has done the same today, alongside his comments at questions. If further action is required to deter Houthi attacks and to safeguard freedom of shipping in the Red sea, will he undertake to provide Parliament with an oral statement?
John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
In just five days last week, Russia fired 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine. Putin is stepping up his attacks, so we must step up UK support, but current military aid funding runs out in a matter of weeks. The former Defence Secretary said—although not today—that without new money it is
“very hard to continue the leadership the UK has been taking on Ukraine”.
I asked the current Defence Secretary about the 2024 Ukraine funding in the House in November. The former Defence Secretary wrote about it eight months ago. Seven weeks from when I asked, I ask again: when will new military aid funding for Ukraine be announced, and will it be multi-year?
Grant Shapps
Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman did not hear my previous answer: it will not be long. To correct the record for the House, the funding—£2.3 billion—continues through to April this year, so it is not in any way, shape or form in danger of running out. To reassure the right hon. Gentleman and the House, I am also in constant contact with Umerov—my opposite number—and many others throughout the Ukrainian system, so they understand where funding is up to and are able to plan accordingly.
Ukraine
John Healey Excerpts(4 months ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
(Urgent Question): To ask the Secretary of State for Defence to make a statement on the war in Ukraine.
The Minister for Defence Procurement (James Cartlidge)
Since the Minister for the Armed Forces last updated the House on 28 November, the situation on the ground has remained largely unchanged. Ukraine has been fortifying its border with Belarus with dragon’s teeth, razor wire and anti-tank ditches, and is pivoting to a more defensive posture following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call on 1 December for rapid fortification across the front.
On 12 December, Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile network operator, suffered a cyber-attack. The incident is likely one of the highest impact disruptive cyber-attacks on Ukrainian networks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Russian air force is highly likely to have carried out the first use of the AS-24 Killjoy air-launched ballistic missile since August 2023. Killjoy has almost certainly had a mixed combat debut. Many of its launches have likely missed their intended targets, while Ukraine has also succeeded in shooting down examples of the supposedly undefeatable system.
We will continue to support priority areas for Ukraine in the coming months, including air defence and hardening critical national infrastructure sites. Our foundational supply of critical artillery ammunition continues. Most recently, on 11 December, the Defence Secretary announced that the UK will lead a new maritime capability coalition alongside Norway, delivering ships and vehicles to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to operate at sea. This represents a step change in the UK’s support for Ukraine in both defending against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion and developing Ukraine’s future maritime capability. The new coalition will deliver long-term support to Ukraine, including training, equipment, and infrastructure to bolster security in the Black sea. We could not be more clear: as the Prime Minster has said, we are in this for as much and as long as it takes.
The maritime capability coalition initiative reinforces our collective long-term commitment to Ukraine and provides a permanent mechanism through which we can support the development of Ukraine’s maritime capability. Agreed during recent meetings of the 50-nation-strong Ukraine defence contact group, it forms part of a series of capability coalitions to strengthen Ukraine’s operations in other domains including on land and in the air. On 13 and 14 December, the Ministry of Defence, along with the Department of Business and Trade, successfully conducted the first UK trade mission to Kyiv since the invasion in 2022. The mission enabled discussions with and between UK and Ukraine officials and industry on opportunities for long-term co-operation, and resulted in tangible agreements for industry.
The UK has committed £4.6 billion of military support to date, as we continue to donate significant amounts of ammunition and matériel from our own stocks, as well as those purchased from across the globe. In addition, we have trained more than 52,000 soldiers since 2015. The UK and our allies have been clear that we will not stand by as the Kremlin persists in its disregard for the sovereignty of Ukraine and international law. That includes the recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty over its territorial waters, which is established in accordance with international maritime law.
John Healey
I thank the Minister for his words but, with due respect, the House should hear from the Defence Secretary himself. He may have urgent business today—we understand that—but he has been in post for four months and he has not made an oral statement in Parliament on Ukraine, from the top, to reassure Ukrainians that Britain will stand with them for as long as it takes to win, to warn President Putin that Britain remains resolute in confronting Russian aggression, and to explain to people why the defence of the UK starts in Ukraine. This is a war in Europe. Last week, nearly two years on, Putin declared that his goals have not changed. If he prevails, he will not stop at Ukraine. That is why the Government have had, and will continue to have, Labour’s fullest support for military aid to Ukraine and for reinforcing NATO allies.
Ukrainians face another winter with war, and another tough year beyond. Yesterday, a top general said that they face ammunition shortages across the entire frontline. At the very time Ukraine needs unfailing support, the UK is falling behind other nations: no new UK weaponry since July; no UK military funding for next year; and no 2024 plan for Ukraine. The UK is united behind Ukraine. I am proud of the UK leadership on Ukraine, but I want to be proud in six months’ time. When will the military aid funding for next year be agreed? Will it be multi-year? When will the international fund for Ukraine commit the half a billion pounds so far unspent? How many next-generation light anti-tank weapons have been produced under the new contract signed 12 months ago, and delivered to Ukraine? Another two minehunter ships were announced last week for Ukraine—the same ships pledged by Ministers in June 2021.
Madam Deputy Speaker, 2024 will be a critical year for Ukraine. We must have the Defence Secretary himself in the House to set out the UK’s plans—military, economic and diplomatic—to support Ukraine through 2024 and beyond.
James Cartlidge
I am extremely proud to stand here and defend the Government’s very strong record in supporting Ukraine. The Secretary of State gave a very important statement yesterday on the future of UK fast jet capability, and the trade mission that we sent to Ukraine last week makes it timely that I stand here now. The public understand the huge amount of support that we have given, and it is important to emphasise that we now need to move to the next phase—the long term—of helping Ukraine’s industry to support itself, working closely with Ukrainian partners. As procurement Minister, I have that as an absolute priority, as demonstrated in the last week by the trade mission.
On the right hon. Gentleman’s other points, I totally agree about the risk of Putin prevailing, and I am grateful for the cross-party support. On ammunition shortages, he specifically asked about NLAWs. Of course, that is not the only anti-tank weapon we have sent. In total, we have sent around 10,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, plus about 4 million small-round ammo, 300,000 artillery shells, 20 AS90 self-propelled guns, a squadron of tanks and a huge amount of air defence systems and uncrewed systems. The list goes on: 82,000 helmets, and training for over 50,000 Ukrainians in the UK to enable them to go back and fight for the freedom of their country. I am very proud of that record, but the Prime Minister has been clear: we know there is much more to do.
Global Combat Air Programme Treaty
John Healey Excerpts(4 months ago)
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John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab)
I thank the Defence Secretary for his statement this afternoon and for early sight of it.
We welcome the treaty that he signed on behalf of the UK last week with Japan and Italy, and we warmly welcome the decision to locate the GCAP government headquarters in London. The treaty is the latest in the planned steps for developing our tri-nation sixth-generation fighter and weaponry. Ukraine has shown us that some of our strongest allies are in east Asia and the Pacific, and we share with them concern about China’s growing military power and assertiveness in the region. We want to see peace, stability and deterrence strengthened in the Indo-Pacific. GCAP is, like AUKUS, a strategic UK commitment to contribute to that. I know it is welcomed in Washington and Canberra, just like AUKUS.
Most importantly, developing a sixth-generation fighter will ensure that we can continue to safeguard our UK skies and those of our NATO allies for decades to come. It will inspire innovation, strengthen UK industry and keep Britain at the cutting edge of defence technology. The Defence Secretary is right to report that to the House.
Defence industrial collaboration underpinned by treaty is unusual. It is a multi-decade undertaking for this nation. As the Secretary of State says, it should command support across the House, and Ministers should report on it openly and regularly. May I ask him what scope the treaty allows to work with other allies, both at a secondary level and as primary partners? Does article 50 ensure that the export problems with the Typhoon will not be encountered with GCAP? When will he lay the treaty before Parliament for ratification?
This month, the National Audit Office reported on the MOD’s equipment plan. It exposed a £17 billion black hole in Britain’s defence plans and showed that Ministers have lost control of the defence budget. In June, the defence Command Paper reaffirmed that the UK would spend £2 billion on this project “out to 2025”. Will the Secretary of State confirm what funding has been made available for GCAP in the defence budget for 2025 and 2026? In response to a written question, the then procurement Minister, the right hon. and learned Member for Cheltenham (Alex Chalk), told me back in March:
“We will determine the cost-sharing arrangements ahead of the next phase”.
Has that now been done, ahead of the treaty signing?
Meanwhile, the Infrastructure and Projects Authority this year downgraded the GCAP programme to red, which rates
“successful delivery…to be unachievable. There are major issues which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable.”
What are the major issues that led to the IPA downgrade? What action is the Secretary of State now taking to lift the red rating?
The Secretary of State said this afternoon that the joint development phase will launch in 2025. His press statement on the treaty signing said this combat aircraft is
“due to take to the skies in 2035”.
Keeping the programme on time, as well as in budget, will be critical, so by what date does he expect the design to be locked down, the national work shares to be settled, the manufacturing agreements to be in place, and the first flight trials to begin?
Signing the treaty is the easy part. Britain and its allies must now do the hard work to get this new-generation fighter aircraft in the air and on time.
Grant Shapps
May I start by warmly welcoming the right hon. Gentleman’s welcoming of this treaty signing and the overall programme? As I say, Members on both sides of the House agree that the defence of the realm comes first. In an ever more dangerous world, it is important to have the facilities that a sixth-generation fighter aircraft would bring.
The right hon. Gentleman mentioned that the HQ is coming to London, but I want to put it on record that it is coming to the UK. We have not decided a location for it yet. I think there are 20-plus potential locations, so I would not want to assume that it will be based in London. We are not as London-centric on everything as he may be.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about examples of working internationally previously. It is worth pointing out that the Typhoon was Italian, British, German and Spanish, and it has been a very successful programme. We are used to working with partners, including Italy, which is involved in this programme.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about article 50 export issues. I think his question is born out of a specific concern about German export licences, which we believe are resolvable. Time will tell. On a wider basis, we recognise that such an aircraft can only be truly successful if the market is greater than the UK, Italy and Japan.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about the broader equipment plans, and he mentioned the £16.9 billion programme. There are a number of caveats. Of course, we have seen huge inflation, but at the other end we have also seen a big expansion of the amount of money that is going into our 10-year equipment programme. That number, which was a snapshot in time, was taken before the refresh and takes into account programmes that will and will not happen, so it is not quite as black and white as he presented.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about cost sharing on the programme. That is part of what the process of discussions both on the treaty and on the new GIGO organisation will ascertain. That is because the industrial capacity and capability of each of the three countries is important, as is the intellectual property that will be brought forward. That is part of what that organisation is currently establishing. It cannot be prejudged simply because we are likely to have greater industrial capacity in certain areas relative to other countries. The amount of project ownership will therefore fall on these factors: how much money goes in, the intellectual property and the industrial capacity.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about RAG—red, amber, green—ratings. If I remember rightly—I will correct the record if I am wrong—one of the reasons for the red rating was about laying a treaty for the project. That is one of the reasons why we are laying the treaty for the project, and we will carry on systematically working through any other factors that could be slowing up the programme or causing the rating to be lower.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about the timing for the treaty. I am pleased that there seems to be strong cross-party consensus on this. As he will know, passing such treaties in this House is not a particularly complex matter—the treaty will be laid before the House, and it will be a question for the business managers. In other countries—in Italy and particularly in the Diet in Japan—there is a rather more complicated process, so the time limiter is likely to be more on their side than on ours. They will be looking to lay the treaty at their end in the spring, and that is more likely to be the issue.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about the timings overall. It is a compressed timetable, with a specific requirement for it to be in service for 2035, which comes from the Japanese side because of its aircraft replacement programme. Japan pressed the target, which we are fully signed up to, and there are a large number of milestones along the way, including a UK demonstrator aircraft, which will be very much sooner. I hope that that information is helpful. I am happy to write to him with any further detail and to take further questions.