Contingent Liability Notification: Mortgage Guarantee Scheme
Bim Afolami Excerpts(5 months, 3 weeks ago)
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The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
At this year’s autumn statement, the Chancellor announced that the mortgage guarantee scheme will be extended by an additional 18 months to continue to support homebuyers and movers with smaller deposits. The scheme will now remain open to new accounts until 30 June 2025.
HM Treasury launched the mortgage guarantee scheme in April 2021. The scheme provides a guarantee to participating lenders across the UK who offer mortgages to first-time buyers and existing homeowners with a deposit as small as 5% on homes with a value of up to £600,000. The Government know that access to a deposit can be the largest barrier facing first-time buyers. Since its launch, the scheme has successfully restored the availability of 91% to 95% loan-to-value mortgage products, directly supporting over 37,000 households to buy their homes, overwhelmingly first-time buyers.
While the scheme was due to close to new mortgage applications on 31 December 2023, HM Treasury has decided to extend the scheme by an additional 18 months to continue to provide lenders with the confidence to offer low-deposit mortgages to consumers.
Guarantees issued under the scheme are valid for up to seven years after the mortgage is originated. Participating lenders pay HM Treasury a fee for each mortgage entered into the scheme. This is set so that expected claims against the guarantee should be covered by revenue from the fee.
To continue to provide lenders with confidence, HM Treasury will therefore be extending the duration of the Government’s contingent liability for an additional 18 months beyond the scheme’s planned closing date of 31 December 2023. HM Treasury judges the risk of incurring losses through the scheme to be low, which would only materialise if the sum of commercial fees paid by lenders was not sufficient to cover calls on the guarantee.
Authority for any expenditure required under this liability will be sought through the normal procedure. HM Treasury has approved this proposal in principle. A departmental minute has been laid in Parliament today. If, during the period of 14 parliamentary sitting days, a Member signifies an objection by giving notice of a parliamentary question or by otherwise raising the matter in Parliament, final approval to proceed with incurring the liability will be withheld pending an examination of the objection.
[HCWS66]
Autumn Statement Resolutions
Bim Afolami Excerpts(5 months, 3 weeks ago)
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The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
I am delighted to bring today’s debate on the measures in the autumn statement to a close, and also to pay tribute to my shadow, my good friend the hon. Member for Hampstead and Kilburn (Tulip Siddiq). I am very glad to follow in the footsteps of Members as eminent and as good at this job as my right hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen). He was excellent in his job, and I am happy to follow his example.
Bim Afolami
Don’t miss him; he’s still here.
Make no mistake, Madam Deputy Speaker: this is an autumn statement for growth—one that supports entrepreneurs, cuts business tax, rewards work and brings prosperity to every corner of our wonderful country, and one that the OBR says will permanently increase the size of our economy. [Interruption.] That is what the OBR says. As my right hon. Friend the Chancellor said this afternoon, the Government understand that a successful economy depends less on the decisions and diktats of Ministers than on the “energy and enterprise” of its people, and that is the thrust of this autumn statement. It is about a Government taking action that reduces the burdens on businesses, while also empowering people and getting Great Britain growing and moving again.
But the context really matters. We are only able to pursue these policies now because of what the Government, under our Prime Minister, have achieved up to this point. We have brought inflation down from 11.1% to 4.6%, meeting the Prime Minister’s pledge, and we are on track to meet the 2% target by the middle of 2025. The OBR has confirmed that the measures announced today will make inflation next year lower than it would otherwise have been. We have achieved this while growing our economy, which is already bigger than it was pre-pandemic, contrary to what was often said on the Opposition Benches in debates in recent weeks and months. Our economy has grown faster than many of our competitors since 2010, which is when this Government first came into office.
Ian Blackford
I welcome the Minister to his position. Will he not acknowledge that, under the current plans, it will take until 2028 for wages to get back to their 1998 levels in real terms—a 20-year absence? That is the reality.
Bim Afolami
The measures here are designed to grow the economy, to make us more prosperous, to make businesses invest more and to cut taxes for working people, so I am confident that that prediction will not be borne out in the way that the right hon. Gentleman suggests. This autumn statement provides the foundation for the next decade of growth—not just for next year or the year after that. Next year, just as a start, the economy will be 2% higher—that is worth around £40 billion—than was forecast only in March this year. That is a result of the actions we have taken today.
I have been hearing about what the shadow Chancellor said to the parliamentary Labour party earlier this week. I am told that this is what she said, but I am happy to be intervened on if it is incorrect. She said that the next election would be a fight on the economy, a fight on fiscal responsibility, a fight on making working people better off and a fight on who would be the party to show that it backed British business. This autumn statement firmly shows that this Government and this party are the only choice for the British people and the British economy on these measures—[Interruption.] I see chuntering among Opposition Front Benchers. If they and the shadow Chancellor wish to fight an election on those matters, I say bring it on.
Let us talk about fiscal responsibility—[Interruption.] The Opposition do not want to hear about that. This Government have brought inflation down by half. Debt is falling by the end of this forecast period. We have the second lowest debt in the G7. We are only able to have this sort of growth Budget because of the prudence and careful measures that we have so far undertaken. Indeed, if I may use language that the Opposition might understand, this is prudence with a purpose. Let us contrast that with the record of the Labour party and Opposition Members. They are still saying that, on top of everything we have heard today, they are going to borrow an extra £28 billion. That will lead to higher debt, because they are borrowing, and higher inflation, which will lead to high interest rates for longer.
Dame Angela Eagle
I also welcome the Minister to his position. Does he not distinguish between borrowing for capital investment and borrowing for current expenditure? If he does not, he has a very peculiar view of the national accounts.
Bim Afolami
Of course I understand that distinction, but that does not take away from the fact that if we are borrowing, it has to be paid for. Unless the Labour party can show how it is going to raise that money—[Interruption.] Look, the non-dom tax has been used about 15 times to pay for 15 different things; that is not going to cut it. Unless the Labour party can say how it is going to pay for that extra £28 billion, it is not fiscally responsible. So on that measure, I say bring it on.
Let us look at whether working people will be better off as a result of this autumn statement. My right hon. Friend the Member for North Somerset (Dr Fox) talked about the need to responsibly bring down taxes for working people, and that is what we have done. The cut in the national insurance rate, worth £450 to the average worker, will benefit 29 million people. That matters to my constituents and to all the constituents we represent in this House. That is what this autumn statement delivers. The national living wage is up 30% in real terms—30% after inflation—in this Parliament. Again, that is what this autumn statement delivers. As a result of the measures on the local housing allowance, 1.6 million of the most vulnerable households in this country are all going to get an extra £800.
Contrast that with the record of the Labour party. Do not let them fool you, Madam Deputy Speaker; Labour Members do not believe in tax cuts. They do not believe in low tax. They are trying to pretend that they do, but we all know that they do not. They believe—and it is a reasonable, principled position—in ever greater, ever expanding Government control, debt and tax. That is their position.
Those of us on this side of the House and this Government have a different philosophy and a different policy. We believe in backing British business. We believe in backing the British people. We believe in cutting taxes for working people. We faced a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic earlier in the Parliament, and we spent over £450 billion supporting the lives, jobs and health of our constituents. That has led to an increase in our tax burden. But that is why this autumn statement is so important—because we are turning the corner.
Bim Afolami
I will not.
Members may wonder how we are able to cut taxes and bring our debt down at the same time in a fiscally responsible way. We are able to do it because we back British business. There are over 100 growth measures in this autumn statement. The policy of full expensing means that for every pound that our businesses are able to invest, they will get 25p off their tax bill. There are measures to protect small businesses on business rates; on R&D tax credits, we are reducing the rate at which the credit is taxed from 25% to 19%; and we have introduced investment zones across huge swathes of our country. A few years ago, I co-authored with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury a policy on accelerator zones. These have been ideas on this side of the House for a long time, and this autumn statement puts them into practice. My good friend and constituency neighbour, my hon. Friend the Member for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller), knows that I share his view that we need to make sure that regulators adhere to the need to focus on growth and competitiveness.
It would be remiss of me not to address some of the comments made during the debate. The Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier), addressed many points. I listened carefully to her concerns about the welfare measures, which were shared by the Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee, the right hon. Member for East Ham (Sir Stephen Timms). I say gently to them both that what we are trying to do with the back to work plan and reform of the work capability assessment is to support the most vulnerable while making sure that taxpayers’ money is used sensibly and that only those who need it are given that support.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Witham (Priti Patel), who is a good friend, focused in her excellent speech on the need for a low-tax economy. She said that she would like to see some more “cheeky measures”—her words, not mine—to get personal tax down. I assure her that I will constantly listen to her and take her advice. Given her great experience, I am sure others on the Treasury Bench will do so too.
This country is full of potential, with the most innovative industries in Europe and the best minds in the world. With this autumn statement, this Government are backing this country. Labour do not have a plan. They do not understand the economy. They want to borrow £28 billion extra, yet they want to take everything in the autumn statement. How are they going to pay for it? We have a plan; they do not. I commend the autumn statement to the House.
Ordered, That the debate be now adjourned.—(Mark Fletcher.)
Debate to be resumed tomorrow.
Oral Answers to Questions
Bim Afolami Excerpts(6 months ago)
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Alexander Stafford (Rother Valley) (Con)
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
The Secretary of State for Defence and my predecessor, my hon. Friend the Member for Arundel and South Downs (Andrew Griffith), recently set out that the values within ESG practices of financial institutions should never undermine capabilities developed to help us preserve peace and security. The Treasury recently consulted on a potential regulatory framework for ESG ratings providers, which aims to improve transparency and promote good conduct. I hope this will address some of the issues that defence companies have raised.
Alexander Stafford
ESG is so vital when it comes to investing in all our services, including defence. We were promised that the “Greening Finance” road map would come out at the end of 2022. Then we were told that the consultation would come out by autumn this year. It is still just about autumn, and it is yet to come out. Why are the Government kicking ESG down the road? Why have they stopped caring about ESG, and when will we have the consultation to get a UK green taxonomy sorted?
Bim Afolami
I thank my hon. Friend for his question. [Interruption.] I do; I know how much he cares about these issues and campaigns on them frequently in the House, and I commend him for it. The Government are committed to delivering on a UK green taxonomy to provide investors with clarity on which economic activity should be labelled as green. We expect to consult this autumn. The green taxonomy will provide an important tool for enabling the supply of relevant and reliable sustainability information for the market, and information will come in due course.
Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)
One of the things that concern Northern Ireland MPs is the fact that when it comes to defence jobs and getting contracts, Northern Ireland falls behind. The Minister will be aware that Thales, on the border of my constituency, was recently able to secure its workforce. What steps can he take to ensure that each region of the United Kingdom, but especially Northern Ireland, can benefit from defence spending for the workforce? We can do the job the same as everywhere else; we just need the opportunity.
Bim Afolami
I thank the hon. Member for his question, which is incredibly important. As he knows, this Government are absolutely committed to ensuring that jobs in the defence sector, within an ESG framework, are protected. I am happy to meet him to discuss further the issues relating to his constituency and Northern Ireland.
Mr Laurence Robertson (Tewkesbury) (Con)
Steve McCabe (Birmingham, Selly Oak) (Lab)
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
The path to lower mortgage rates, as everybody in this House knows, is through lower inflation, which is why the Prime Minister and the Chancellor made halving inflation one of our five priorities for this year. The latest Bank of England forecast shows that we are on track for that. In June, lenders representing more than 90% of the mortgage market agreed to our new mortgage charter, which includes new flexibilities to help customers manage their repayments, backed up by UK Finance’s advertising campaign encouraging anyone worried about their repayments to contact their lender.
Nick Fletcher
Does the Minister agree that the best way we can help the next generation of homeowners is to increase the supply of homes, bring back the help to buy ISA and stop the 35-year mortgage shared-ownership models, which only increase house prices?
Bim Afolami
I thank my hon. Friend for his question. On his first point, we are increasing the number of homes and we are optimistic that we will reach our target of delivering 1 million new homes over this Parliament. Secondly, the help to buy ISA was closed to new accounts in 2019, but existing holders can continue to save into their accounts. On his third point about stopping 35-year mortgages, it is important to have choice in the market and for people to make those choices for themselves. As a Government we are committed to supporting people doing just that.
Steve McCabe
According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, mortgage increases are expected to cost UK households £9 billion this year and next. How on earth do the Government defend that?
Bim Afolami
As the hon. Member knows, the reason why we are in this position is that there is a global phenomenon. We are doing what we can. We are working closely with the Bank of England and, over time, due to the policies of the Chancellor, the Prime Minister and this Government, interest rates will come down.
James Murray (Ealing North) (Lab/Co-op)
I welcome the hon. Member for Mid Worcestershire (Nigel Huddleston) to his post as Financial Secretary.
It has been a year since the Conservatives crashed the economy. In 2023 so far, 1.5 million fixed-term mortgages have expired, leaving working people facing sky-high increases in their mortgage costs. For people living in Wellingborough, for example, this Tory mortgage penalty means that households are paying another £190 a month on top of everything else in a cost of living crisis. The truth is that working people are paying the price for the Conservatives crashing the economy last autumn. Does the Economic Secretary think that is fair?
Bim Afolami
I thank the shadow Minister for his kind words, at least in relation to me.
It is important to recognise that in the eurozone, the United States and the UK there have been broadly similar increases in inflation and interest rates. We as a Government are confident that our policies will bring those down in due course.
Michael Shanks (Rutherglen and Hamilton West) (Lab)
John Mc Nally (Falkirk) (SNP)
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
The Government’s mortgage charter is providing support to vulnerable households, and arrears and repossessions remain at historic lows. Government support has helped real household incomes rise by 2.7% year on year in the latest data.
John Mc Nally
With the economy flatlining and interest rates remaining at 5.25% and more than likely to remain above 5% next year, it simply follows that households’ disposable incomes will continue to be squeezed throughout 2024. Surely the Chancellor agrees that mortgage interest tax relief must be reintroduced to support households facing high interest rates alongside inflation.
Bim Afolami
As the hon. Member has already heard from the Chancellor, the economy is still growing. The latest labour market data shows that incomes are going up at a higher rate than inflation, so I do not recognise the picture that he paints.
Ben Lake (Ceredigion) (PC)
Priti Patel (Witham) (Con)
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
As my right hon. Friend knows, the Government are committed to supporting economic growth all over the country, but particularly in the wonderful county of Essex. The recently announced £1.1 billion long-term plan for towns will, for example, provide £20 million of flexible funding over 10 years to Clacton, and there are many other measures.
Priti Patel
I welcome my hon. Friend to his new role. I hope that he will know not only that the only way is Essex, but that Essex is a net contributor to the Treasury. We want more economic growth in Essex. In a week’s time, we will have the autumn statement, so may I give a message to those on the Treasury Front Bench? May I appeal to the Chancellor in particular to look at lowering the rates of personal and business taxation, particularly the areas of business rates, corporation tax and all aspects to do with enabling people to keep more of the money they earn?
Bim Afolami
My right hon. Friend tempts me to make tax policy. What I will say to her is that she will know that the Chancellor always keeps these things under review, as do the Government. Indeed, we have a fiscal event shortly.
Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)
Can I ask the Minister why he said he wants particularly to support investment and growth in Sussex? [Interruption.] Is that the Tories reverting to type in terms of the blue wall?
Richard Burgon (Leeds East) (Lab)
The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Bim Afolami)
There are two things I would say in response to that. First, it is important, when we talk about banks, that we have a globally broadly competitive tax regime, and we do not apologise for that in the Treasury. Secondly, the hon. Gentleman should bear in mind that the reduction he talks about in terms of the levy on banks was offset by rising corporation tax.
Peter Gibson (Darlington) (Con)
I thank the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham and Stamford (Gareth Davies) for his recent visit to Darlington, where he opened a new branch of Darlington Building Society. He will know from that visit the impact that Treasury jobs are having locally, including an additional £80 million of spending in our local economy. Does he agree with me that Darlington Economic Campus is a fantastic levelling-up project, ensuring that people can stay local but go far?
Stephanie Peacock (Barnsley East) (Lab)
Bim Afolami
This is a complicated area of regulation and we are looking at it very closely. The consultation closed in April and we are working on it because it is very important we get it right, but I hear the hon. Lady’s concerns and will update the House in due course.
Jonathan Gullis (Stoke-on-Trent North) (Con)
While the shadow Chancellor was busy scrolling through Wikipedia to copy and paste, the actual Chancellor has to look no further than the New Conservatives tax plan, which outlines scrapping the IR35 reforms, increasing the VAT registration threshold to £250,000, and delivering on the Prime Minister’s pledge when he was Chancellor to bring a 1p cut in income tax in 2024.
Silicon Valley Bank
Bim Afolami Excerpts(1 year, 2 months ago)
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Andrew Griffith
I do not accept that for one minute. We are only just bringing forward the deregulation. The Financial Services and Markets Bill is not even on the statute book. The regulations that affected this situation are precisely the same regulations that we have inherited from Brussels.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
It is when we act in haste that we need to think about the long-term consequences of the regulatory actions taken. I join others in the House in commending the Treasury, wider Government and the Bank of England. The Minister said that HSBC has been given a waiver on certain ringfencing rules. I ask this as someone who, before arriving at the House, worked at HSBC on ringfencing in detail and many other things: will the Minister explain that waiver in more detail? More importantly, will that waiver on ringfencing apply more widely to other banks caught by ringfencing regulations?
Andrew Griffith
As my hon. Friend well knows, the Government are undertaking a review of ringfencing. There is a call for evidence on how we could reform that, following the work of Sir Keith Skeoch into how we mesh the ringfencing arrangements put in place back in 2008 with the more modern resolution arrangements. We will learn the lessons that we can from this but, as I said at the beginning, in this case we have been able to achieve an outcome that has protected customers, the taxpayers and the financial system.
Financial Services and Markets Bill
Bim Afolami ExcerptsWednesday 7th December 2022
(1 year, 5 months ago)
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Tulip Siddiq (Hampstead and Kilburn) (Lab)
The Opposition support the Bill, particularly the new secondary objectives for regulators on international competitiveness and long-term growth. It is a welcome first step in supporting the City to take advantage of opportunities outside the EU, such as creating a welcoming environment for new financial technologies and incentivising financial services to increase investments in domestic industries through reform of solvency II.
We were delighted when, after much pressure from the Labour party, the Minister decided to drop his dangerous policy of the intervention power. Despite repeated warnings from the Bank of England, business and the Labour party that he should not be putting the UK’s international competitiveness at risk by threatening our system of regulatory independence, the current Minister pushed on and told me it was a good thing. In my eyeline, I can see the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller), who, when he was the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, said to me on Second Reading that it was right for Ministers to be able to intervene in such a way.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
On regulatory independence, notwithstanding the particular call-in power the hon. Lady is describing, would she agree that it is important for the elected Government and this House to be able to set the direction in which regulators are meant to go, and that if the regulators are not going in that direction, this House and the Government should be able to correct the direction they are going in?
Tulip Siddiq
I support much of what the hon. Member says, and I will come on to that a little later in my speech, but the call-in power is very different from what he is describing. Time and again, we warned Ministers that this would be detrimental to our regulatory independence, and they did not listen. However, if the hon. Member listens carefully, he will hear, when I come on to the next page of my speech, that I will address the valid points he is making.
In Committee, when I pushed the current Minister on why this dangerous intervention power was necessary, he told me that voices in the industry had told him we needed an “agile and flexible system”, which he claimed could only be brought about by this intervention power. After all of this from the three Economic Secretaries I have shadowed in 10 months, who kept pushing this dangerous intervention power, strangely enough the Government then dropped the policy: I just received an opaque letter, which did not really offer any proper explanation for why this Government have had a change of heart. If you do not mind my saying so, Mr Deputy Speaker, I thought about when I got a text from my crush in the sixth form telling me there would be no second date, without his actually telling me face to face why he did not want to see me again. I do wonder why, but I say to the Minister that I am grateful that he listened to the Labour party and has dropped the dangerous intervention power. I only wish he had done it sooner, so we could have saved some unnecessary damage to our global reputation.
While the intervention power was wholly inappropriate, we recognise that the Bill facilitates an unprecedented transfer of responsibilities from retained EU law to the regulators, and this does require democratic accountability. That is why I am glad the Government have listened to the concerns raised by me and others in Committee and have introduced new clause 17, which will allow regulators to be held to account against key metrics.
I hope the Minister will be able to commit to supporting new clause 10, tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Blaenau Gwent (Nick Smith), to further strengthen the democratic accountability of regulators.
I was absolutely delighted that the hon. Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin) was following my speeches at the Labour party conference so closely, where again and again I made the case for a new form of regulated personalised guidance. She has tabled new clause 11, which would create the space to do that, and I hope the Government will support her new clause.
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)
I now have to announce the results of today’s deferred Divisions.
On the draft Agricultural Holdings (Fee) Regulations 2022, the Ayes were 291 and the Noes were 159, so the Ayes have it.
On the draft Combined Authorities (Mayoral Elections) (Amendment) Order 2022, the Ayes were 289 and the Noes were 12, so the Ayes have it.
On the draft Local Authorities (Mayoral Elections) (England and Wales) (Amendment) Regulations 2022, the Ayes were 289 and the Noes were 12, so the Ayes have it.
On the draft Police and Crime Commissioner Elections and Welsh Forms (Amendment) Order 2022, the Ayes were 289 and the Noes were 13, so the Ayes have it.
Returning to the debate, if everybody speaks for five minutes instead of six minutes, it will give the Minister what I would consider to be a reasonable amount of time to respond.
Bim Afolami
With your indulgence, Madam Deputy Speaker, I would like to start, before getting into the meat of this, by paying tribute to a Labour councillor in Hitchin who recently and suddenly passed away in my constituency. Judi Billing had served as a district councillor since 1980 and was an excellent servant, and I wanted to make that point on the Floor of the House.
I rise in particular to support new clause 17. As we all know, this is really an enabling Bill and a lot of its meat will come in regulations that will be passed in the coming weeks and months. In the short time available to me, I think it is important to stand up for the regulators, because someone has to in this debate. I want to stand up for them not because I have agreed with every decision of the Prudential Regulation Authority, the Financial Conduct Authority, the Payment Systems Regulator or anyone else, but because a lot of the right criticisms that I and many other colleagues have had of the regulators arise more as a function of the system in which they operate than as a result of the decisions made by those individual regulators or institutions.
There is a key point about accountability, which many colleagues on both sides of the House have already raised: there needs to be strengthened accountability to this House. I have made the point many times before, but I urge those on the Treasury Bench, His Majesty’s Treasury and Parliament to look at this more deeply. Unless we can strengthen the accountability to this House and the other place of the regulators directly, we will continue to run up against criticisms that they are not taking colleagues’ considerations into account.
There is also a need for more effective accountability to the Government. What I mean by that is that the Government have clearly set out, in a series of actions, policy statements, speeches and strategies over the past few months, and in numerous reviews, what their intentions are. Those have been supported when it has come to votes on the Floor of this House, but sometimes there is a gap between the intention of the Government and what ends up coming through, even when regulations are passed to that end. It is important that the regulators and the Government work together to find a system whereby the Government can ensure that their strategic aims are being supported on an ongoing basis by the regulators. This is not just about saying what the policy is, passing regulations and allowing the regulators to get on with it. However well they try to do that, a lot will get missed, so we need to think about that.
We need to rethink the entirety of our regulatory structure, particularly as to how it governs financial services. We have very powerful regulators that have taken on a huge amount of power from the European Union, and they are doing their best. There are some overlaps between them and there are times when certain aims of one conflict with the aims of the other, even in relation to the competitiveness objective that has come up many times in the passage of this Bill. We end up with the situation where the regulators have to balance off competitiveness and other secondary objectives, and indeed the primary objectives. We have to work out how we are going to put together a framework that enables better accountability to this House, and better accountability to the political aims that have been passed by this House and to the aims of the Government, so that we get a regulatory system that drives a better, more competitive, safer financial services system.
To that end I have set up the Regulatory Reform Group, of which some Members of this House and others outside are a part. I intend to work with the Government on this issue, because unless we get it right, all the best intentions that all colleagues have in different areas will find it hard to be effected because of the structural difficulties that are inherent. So I would like to stick up for the regulators but say that they need to be able to operate in a more effective system.
David Simmonds (Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner) (Con)
I am delighted to be able to speak in support of the Government this evening, because this Bill is of great importance to my constituents, many of whom work in our financial sector, and also to the capital city, of which my constituency is a part.
Since I contributed to the earlier stages of the Bill, I have had the opportunity to hear from UK Finance, Zurich, Lloyds, the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Property Institute and Just Group and many others, and they have reflected back to me the broad and strong support of the financial sector, which is the jewel in our industrial crown, for the measures that the Bill envisages. The key thing from the perspective of my constituents is that the Bill seeks to right-size regulation in the United Kingdom to reflect the fact that the risks and the challenges that the sector faces change over time. Just as we need to manage the risk from competitors, through the measures on competitiveness, we also need to ensure that we have a financial sector that enables all of our citizens to access the broadest possible range of financial services.
I have listened carefully to the points made about financial inclusion, for example, which are very important in the context of our financial sector. We need to ensure—and I think this Bill does—an appropriate balance between products that are pricing in a degree of risk, but that enable people to build their creditworthiness and their participation in the benefits that the financial sector can bring in their lives, with a recognition that there are risks to constituents, in particular from the development of new products, which the Bill seeks to address through better regulation in areas such as crypto investments.
Briefly, on new clause 27, although I have sympathy with the points that have been made by a number of Members, this strikes me as an example of where there is a significant risk of unintended consequences. As Ministers have heard, there is a need for due process for those who feel that they have been wronged by the decisions of a provider to be able to seek a remedy for that, but we do not want to get into the kind of situation that we have seen in the past, where an obligation to provide a universal service sees significant numbers of providers—useful providers—exiting the market because they are not prepared to accept the risks that come with that. My view is that the Government are finding about the right balance.
Let me turn now to the issues around the Financial Conduct Authority and the regulators. There will be a new chair of the FCA from 21 February next year. I wish to bring to the attention of the House and of Ministers that the strong view of my constituents and many in the sector is that we need to see a greater degree of rigour in the enforcement action that the FCA in particular is able to take. It is a matter not of new powers, but of making sure that they are operating effectively.
In respect of access to cash, I would like to thank Ministers. Certainly, in my constituency, we have seen really significant efforts by financial institutions to ensure that every high street has at least one free-to-use cashpoint, and, thus far, the feedback from business owners is very good.
In conclusion, I strongly support the Government’s position. I am not afraid to say if I think things are going wrong, but, in this case, it is clear to me that the Bill is beneficial to my constituents as business owners, as employees in the sector, and as consumers of the sector’s product, and it is beneficial to the taxpayers of the United Kingdom.
Energy (oil and gas) profits levy
Bim Afolami Excerpts(1 year, 5 months ago)
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Tulip Siddiq
As always, my hon. Friend is right, as is his point about how every time the Conservatives bring in a fiscal rule about lowering debt, they end up breaking it.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
May I ask for some clarity on the hon. Lady’s remarks about oil and gas? What exactly is the Labour party’s position on whether we should have more oil and gas? If it thinks that we do need oil and gas, what would it do to achieve that?
Tulip Siddiq
I am not quite sure what the hon. Gentleman means. Of course we need more oil and gas, but we have said clearly that we should make fairer choices and tax those who say that they have too much money as excessive profits. That is what we are saying, and the hon. Gentleman needs to listen carefully. Labour would also have ended the VAT exemption for private schools, which would raise £1.7 billion every year. That would have been a fairer and more effective way of fixing the Tory economic crisis and bringing the deficit down, instead of pushing the burden on to hard-working families.
Kit Malthouse (North West Hampshire) (Con)
It is obviously foolish for the Opposition to pretend that a pandemic and a continental war, with its associated energy shock, would not be felt economically in this country. At the same time, it is clearly preposterous for them to try to talk down the UK economy as some kind of basket case, when we compare very favourably to some of our peers on debt to GDP, employment is still very high and we have an economy that exhibits so many underlying strengths. At the same time, it is fair to say that the autumn statement was greeted with some dismay on the Government Benches. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has obviously had to make some very difficult and challenging decisions, given the economic headwinds we face.
First of all, however, I should point to one of the bright moments in the statement, which was the Chancellor’s pledge on education funding. The £2.3 billion extra on top of what is already in the baseline over the next two years was very welcome. I am grateful to the 27 colleagues who, along with me, signed a letter urging the Chancellor not only to protect schools funding, but to invest further. Our view was that one of the groups most hard hit by the pandemic and that awful disease was children. The case for investing further in their education to deal with the backlog, helping them to catch up and ensuring they can have productive lives in the future, felt to us morally strong and it would have been indefensible to cut that spending. We are therefore extremely pleased that he responded in such a positive way.
I have only a few minutes, so I want to outline three lessons from the recent turmoil, two warnings and a hope for the future. The first lesson is predicated on a phrase that does not go down well in either marriages or politics—the four little words, “I told you so.” For those of us who have been tracking the path of the UK money supply over the last 10 years, the underlying inflation, which was baked into our system and has emerged over the last 12 months, has not, I am afraid, come as any great surprise. The fact that the Bank of England has been slow to recognise the importance of monetarism and money policy over the last couple of years is a cause of great dismay, not least because a number of us consistently raised this issue with the previous Governor when he was in front of the Treasury Committee and since. The denial of the kind of Bank of England orthodoxy that the money supply mattered has come back to haunt us in a big way. The enormous growth in the money supply has outstripped the growth in our economy—yes, coming out of the crash in 2007-08, but in particular coming out of the pandemic—and resulted in the inflation in this country that is now taxing every family. It is hard to see that the Bank has moved with alacrity to deal with it—if anything, I think the criticism is that it has been a bit slow—but I hope the lesson we learn for the future, and on which this House should concentrate and focus, is that the money supply matters. When we look around the world we see consensus around a loose monetary policy for far too long and we need to bear that in mind.
The second lesson is that the Bank’s handling of the bond market really matters as well. We had assumed that that was a benign market that we could take for granted, but it became clear that the Bank’s hangover from its quantitative tightening—its declaration of sales forward into the market—had a significant impact. That was then exacerbated by the so-called fiscal event. We also bear huge losses on that market from the Bank’s dealings. Admittedly, there have been profits in previous years, but the fact that we are bearing about £11 billion-worth of losses from the Bank’s trading in that market matters. Also, within that market, we discovered to our horror that pension funds were effectively gambling with borrowed money, shorting inflation through the so-called LDI— liability-driven investment—strategy, which became so systemically problematic for the economy that the Bank had to intervene again. That points to lax supervision and comprehension of the weaknesses in the bond market.
The third lesson is that we as a House have perhaps not concentrated enough on the operations of the Debt Management Office. I have yet to see anywhere an obviously declared policy decision to move our debt more towards index-linked or inflation-linked bonds. We have moved from 6% of our debt being index-linked 10 or so years ago to about 22%. That is a near-quadrupling of the figure. As I think the Chair of the Treasury Committee—my hon. Friend the Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin)—said yesterday, that effectively means that the Government were shorting inflation. At a time when we had lost track of the money supply, or in fact, had decided that the money supply did not matter, that proved to be a foolish bet.
Bim Afolami
When I was on the Public Accounts Committee a couple of years ago, we looked at index-linked debt on the whole of Government accounts. If I recall this correctly, the answer we received was that there was no long-term risk of widespread inflation because there were global forces that were becoming deflationary, rather than inflationary. The points that my right hon. Friend is making illustrate well the poor analysis in that approach.
Kit Malthouse
I completely agree. I remember well debates with Mark Carney, when he was head of the Bank of England, about the combination of a rise in the money supply and the underlying inflationary effects in our economy being masked by deflationary effects, not least of global supply chains, and the fact that we now have so much stuff made and imported from China, as well as the effect of the internet. Once the curtain was pulled back and we had problems with our supply chains—and that curve of deflation bottomed out—lo and behold, the money supply suddenly became important again. Let us hope that we learn that lesson for the future.
Notwithstanding the difficult decisions that the Chancellor has made, another opportunity is coming for us to trim the sails: the Budget in the spring. As we move towards that moment, I hope that we can look towards some positive changes in the global economic environment. Hopefully, the war in Ukraine will start to recede. International container prices are already falling, as are energy costs. We can therefore think again in the spring and I hope that we will bear two things in mind.
First, we need to bear in mind that, in a tight labour market, tax rises can prolong inflation. If we, through tax rises, give people, in effect, a take-home pay cut at the same time as they face higher costs because of their mortgages and generally because of the cost of living, they are likely to start to demand more from their employers. I am afraid that that has a possibility of sparking a wage and price spiral, particularly as we know that the secondary effects of that inflation will take some time—possibly months, if not years—to work their way through the system. I would bear that in mind when we think about possible tax rises, particularly from fiscal drag.
My second concern—I give this warning to Ministers—is that chasing debt to GDP could become a hare that they are unable to catch. If the actions taken from a fiscal and monetary point of view damage our GDP number—if GDP falls—we have to work even harder to reduce costs, or debt, against that number. If the action taken to reduce the numerator in the equation paradoxically damages the denominator, the equation becomes harder and harder to reach. If we base our ability to reach that debt-to-GDP ratio on a lower figure—particularly with a 3% GDP debt limit—through tax rises, the only way to avoid a doom loop is to tax and tax, even if we know that we can never fill in the hole that we are digging.
Finally, let me turn to my hope for the future. When we get to the spring Budget, I hope not only that the global winds that are blowing against us will have receded somewhat, but that, frankly, we can restore our belief in capitalism. My strong view is that the only way that we will get out of this hole—a number of Members have said this in the past few days—is through growth. We will not tax our way to prosperity, nor will we tax our way out of this debt-to-GDP problem. We need to inject growth into the economy. The only way to do that is to let the wealth creators free by loosening the ties that bind them and by looking at the regulation and taxation on capital, in particular, so that people are willing to take risks. One of the most dismaying choices in the statement was the proposed increase in capital taxes, not least because that changes the risk-reward ratio, meaning that it is less likely that people will go out and start a business.
Although some of the decisions about research and development, including the vast amount of money that is being pumped into that across the whole UK, are extremely welcome, unless there is a strong, pullulating, dynamic private sector out there to pick up the ball and run with it, all the intellectual property that the money creates will just end up overseas, where plenty of venture capitalists and entrepreneurs will be willing to pick that up and run with it.
Believing again in capitalism, allowing people to keep more of their money and to invest it, and building businesses for the future will be critical to our overall success in the months, years and decades to come. As we move towards the spring Budget, I hope that Ministers will look again at the five-year OBR forecast, remembering that it is there not to be fulfilled, but to be beaten and bested. It is there to warn us of what might happen so that we can take action now to avoid it. I hope that come the spring Budget, that is exactly what the Government will do.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
It is a pleasure to speak in support of this autumn statement. In the time available to me, I will talk about an issue that has come up a lot today, but I will talk about it in a very particular way to illustrate the problems we have with it. That issue is inflation.
Inflation is at the heart of our economic problem. Inflation is the reason why food prices are high. Inflation is the reason why energy prices are so difficult to manage. Inflation, as we have heard from many Members, is the core reason why the debt interest bill that the Government have to pay is now so high. We have heard a lot about the different global causes of this inflation, but it is worth making the point again that this inflation is happening in every single western country—it is happening in most countries in the world, not just western countries. We should never stop underlining that point. This is not about escaping political responsibility—I am not playing a party political game here—but we can deal with the problem only if we understand its true causes.
The first cause, as mentioned by my right hon. Friend the Member for North West Hampshire (Kit Malthouse), is about central banks and the policy of quantitative easing, which pumped several trillion pounds into the economy over the last 10 years. Regardless of people’s view as to whether that was necessary at the beginning as we came out of the financial crisis, many people rightly ask whether, if we—not just globally, but the Bank of England—expand the money supply to such a degree, it is a shock that, at some point, when there is an exogenous factor such as the war in Ukraine, inflation appears to be structurally embedded and higher than it was before. The Bank of England and global central banks, such as the US Fed and the European Central Bank, need to examine their policies over the last 10 years that have contributed to the global rise in inflation.
The second global cause of inflation is what has been going on in China. Its zero covid policy means that its growth rate this year is 3.2% or 3.3%, while its growth target is 5.5%. China tends to hit its targets—at least officially—so that shows that it is not soaking up global demand in the way that it did, which is also having a big impact. At the same time, it hurts supply chains across the world, particularly this country’s manufacturing businesses as well as others, which need China to be open.
Those problems have contributed to inflation, but I do not want to focus on them. I want to focus on the cost of energy, because that underpins many other things in our economy. Indeed, the difficulties that the pound sterling, the euro and many other currencies had, and still have, against the dollar in the last couple of months were in large part because of energy prices being priced in dollars, and the impact of that on the world economy.
We are trying to decarbonise our economy, as hon. Members on both sides of the House agree, but oil and gas are still hugely significant to absolutely everything in the economy. Structurally, demand for oil and gas from the developing world—not primarily China, but India and sub-Saharan Africa—is rocketing, because the people in those countries want to have what we have. They want to industrialise and make their lives better, and they need energy to do that. At the same time, we are seeing lower investment in new oil and gas by major energy companies. That is happening for myriad reasons, but principally because the messages that we have been sending around the necessary green investment have made shareholders demand higher returns for shareholders rather than those profits going into investment.
The long and short of it is that we do not have enough oil and gas and the demand for it is rising, so prices are going up. Although the war in Ukraine has hugely exacerbated and accelerated the difficulty, it is worth saying that the problems with energy have been building for a long time. Even when the war in Ukraine concludes, as we hope happens soon, prices will still be higher than we have been used to.
Every economic expansion in the world over the last 300 years was founded on not just innovation but cheap energy. We have to be honest as a House, as a country and as the Conservative party that all our hopes and dreams about what our economy should do—all the funds that we want to put into the NHS, all the infrastructure that we want to build, all the tax cuts that we want to give—are founded on having affordable energy for individuals and businesses.
What are we going to do about that? All hon. Members on both sides of the House agree that we need more renewable investment—more nuclear, more wind, more solar. We will always talk about investing more in those things, so it is about not just the investment, but our ability to get it done. I am sure many Members will share my frustration at the gap between our intentions, whether through legislation or policy, on the investments that are made and the big numbers that we talk about and see, and the slow deliverability of that on the ground. In energy in particular, the amount of time it takes to get a nuclear power station off the ground is too long. The amount of time it takes even to get a wind farm and wind terminals off the ground is too long; in fact it is getting longer. On solar, we have problems with planning in that area as well.
Aaron Bell
I thank my hon. Friend for what he is saying. The Science and Technology Committee, on which I sit, is currently looking at our nuclear investments for the future. Is he aware that, for example, the number of documents submitted in planning for Sizewell C is over 4,000 compared with about 1,000 for Hinkley Point C and it is basically the same design? Is that not an example of what he is talking about?
Bim Afolami
It is, and I would love to speak much more about that point, but I do not have much time. I would just say that we must start to take seriously the issues of delivering much more renewable energy on our own soil, and of exploring oil and gas in the North sea to the maximum we can. A lot of the other economic debates we have are largely irrelevant in the context of that energy challenge.
We have heard a lot today about investment for public services. I remind all Members, particularly Opposition Members, that we cannot oppose measures for the growth of our economy, and we cannot always oppose investments or incentives for investment for successful businesses or individuals and, at the same time, say that we need more investment in our public services. We need to remember that the only money spent by the Government is the money that we generate as a private sector and private enterprise. That is why we need to tackle inflation, that is why the core of tackling inflation is dealing with the cost of energy and that is why I support this autumn statement.
Economic Situation
Bim Afolami Excerpts(1 year, 7 months ago)
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Urgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.
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Chris Philp
I have explained in response to an earlier question that spending restraint is not the same as real-terms cuts. We do not plan real-terms cuts, but we do plan iron discipline when it comes to spending restraint. The answers to the hon. Lady’s questions will be set out in full at the fiscal statement, which will be accompanied by a full Office for Budget Responsibility scoring and a set of OBR forecasts. That is when all those questions will be answered very clearly.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
The intervention of the Bank of England in both the gilt market and the corporate bond market has alarmed many in recent days. I would be interested in the view of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury on the Treasury’s assessment of the cost to the Treasury and the fiscal position following the interventions by the Bank of England in those markets.
Chris Philp
I thank my hon. Friend for his question. It obviously depends on the prices at which the Bank and England buys and sells bonds or gilts in the market. It is worth observing that so far it has purchased considerably less by value of gilts than the limits that were set out originally. The volume of gilts that it has on its balance sheet is much less than the limits. On his question about fiscal cost, if there is any fiscal cost, that will depend entirely on market prices.
Financial Services and Markets Bill
Bim Afolami ExcerptsWednesday 7th September 2022
(1 year, 8 months ago)
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John McDonnell (Hayes and Harlington) (Lab)
I hope there will be plenty of time to discuss the detail of the Bill both in Committee and on Report, so I wish to make some general comments on my worries about where it is situated. When J. K. Galbraith wrote about the 1929 crash, his advice for the future was that people could set up all the institutions they needed to try to prevent it from ever happening again, but the greatest protection would come from memory. I therefore want to go back in time to some of the lessons that we perhaps should have learned but did not.
I wrote about the big bang in the 1980s and I can remember the concerns we expressed about a wave of enthusiasm for deregulation similar to what we see today. That enthusiasm resulted, in effect, in a casino economy. The City of London and the finance sector are the most successful lobbyists in the history of politics in this country and they are incredibly powerful. Sometimes, that results in corporate capture, not just of Governments but even of Oppositions at times. That period of enthusiasm for deregulation resulted in a casino economy that eventually resulted in a series of crashes—we endured not just 2007-08 but other crises.
I was in this House in 2007-08 and was the first Member to raise the issue of Northern Rock. I remember that in the debate after Northern Rock, the Treasury itself spoke about the “excessive concern for competitiveness” that brought about elements of that crash. I worry that we are re-inserting into legislation an emphasis on competitiveness that could override so many other issues of concern.
Here we go again. We are introducing legislation and placing in it a reliance on the structures that we established after the 2007-08 crash, particularly the FCA. I believe the FCA has been a catastrophic failure. My constituents have gone through London Capital & Finance, Woodford and Blackmore Bond. We saw the FCA’s failure to address HBOS and RBS properly, and we are supposedly still waiting for the independent review of Lloyds that was established in 2017, yet the FCA has moved not one inch to take further enforcement actions. As I have made clear on the Floor of the House, I was concerned that the FCA chief executive at the time was accused—rightfully, I believe—of being asleep at the wheel. Before we even had the report on London Capital & Finance and so on, we appointed him as Governor of the Bank of England.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
The right hon. Gentleman is making an important and interesting speech. On that point about the FCA, will he explain to the House whether he supports changing the regulatory structure and having one super-regulator, or something of a similar description?
John McDonnell
The hon. Gentleman knows where my mind is going. We instituted a regulatory review a couple of years ago, and Prem Sikka, a professor of accountancy, and a team of corporate specialists and finance specialists introduced an excellent report. He is now in the Lords and I warn Members that he will shred this legislation when it goes up there. He outlined that 40 bodies are regulating our finance sector in some way and that there is a need for consolidation and to learn the lessons of the experiences of some of these bodies so far. That job is still to be done. I was hoping that the bringing forward of this legislation would coincide with the Government’s clear recommendations on where we go on that structure and, in particular, the role of the FCA.
I am also concerned about the fact that, although we are having the debate about this legislation, we are not debating potential future threats. I am anxious that in this legislation we are not addressing shadow banking, where we have already seen elements of individual firm collapses, particularly in respect of equity firms, that could create a domino effect and then produce a significant collapse.
I am also anxious about the move away from MiFID II. That issue has been raised and was derided by some in the House. We have recently seen the evidence with regard to speculation on both energy and food prices. Of course the cost of living crisis has been caused by a combination of the breakdown of supply chains, covid and the war in Ukraine, but there is significant evidence now that these increases in energy costs and food costs have been exacerbated by speculation in the markets. This is speculation where the paper markets are distinct from the reality of commodity supply. It is not just me expressing that; it has been expressed elsewhere, particularly in the States, but also by a number of global institutions. I regret that we have not addressed that issue in this legislation. We need to hold to the MiFID II, particularly the constraints on asset holding with regard to food commodities, as I am anxious about price speculation forcing prices up.
I was critical of Gordon Brown on some of his response to the banking crash in 2007-08, but one thing he did successfully was bring the world together, and there were international meetings where we looked at a global response to these problems. I believe that we now need to look at a global response to the food and energy speculation that is taking place, which is exacerbating the cost of living crisis that our constituents are facing. In that way, the Government’s approach is lacking. We will have the discussion tomorrow about their response to the energy prices increase and the cost of living crisis. I am hoping that from that, and as we move forward, we will recognise that there is an international role to be played by this Government in bringing people together, in the same way as Gordon Brown did.
I am particularly concerned about the issue of food. The UN special rapporteur Olivier De Schutter has said that what is happening now is that people are betting on people’s hunger. That cannot be right. Anything that we do that undermines in any way our own national legislation, which is against speculation in essential products such as that, is dangerous, but if we fail to ensure that we take up our international responsibilities, we will regret that for the future, as our people increasingly confront the problems of hunger and starvation.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
It is a pleasure to speak in support of the Bill. I will not repeat what so many hon. Members have said about the excellent work of the former Economic Secretary—my hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen)—and the present Economic Secretary in bringing it to the House, but I want to bring up a couple of specific issues that may not have come up in the debate as much as they might have.
The former Chancellor, my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond (Yorks) (Rishi Sunak), mentioned the call-in power. There has been some criticism in the press, which may or may not have come from people within the regulators or from people speaking on their behalf, suggesting that the Government’s call-in power will somehow damage our regulatory system or that it is somehow illegitimate for the elected Government or this House—in extremis, if they feel that something is badly awry—to override the non-elected regulators in a specific area of financial regulation.
I put it on record that those concerns may be well intentioned, but I think they are wrong. It is critical that this House and the elected Government have that power over something as significant as the financial regulation of the sector that is our jewel in the crown. The sector employs millions of people, two thirds of whom are outside London. We all accept, on both sides of the House, that we should champion the sector and work with it. It is almost unconscionable that such a power does not already exist, so we should stand firm if, in the other place or in Committee in this place, Members wish to reject the call-in power. I think it is critical.
Alison Thewliss
The hon. Gentleman speaks with a lot of expertise in the area. Could he give an example of when the power might be used? In what circumstances might the Government want to use it?
Bim Afolami
Lest anybody should think I have any particular specialist knowledge, I stress that this is entirely my own view, but I could imagine a scenario in which the Government, supported by this House, intended certain changes to a regulation such as MiFID II. A strategy document might say that the intention is for a, b and c to occur, but when the regulations were drafted, that intention might not appear to come through. In that instance, it would be very legitimate for the House or the Government to say, “No, what we intend is the following, and we will change the detailed regulation in order to achieve the aim—the democratic aim, supported by the Government and the House—that we seek to achieve.”
There are a couple of other areas in which I think the Government could have gone further in the Bill, and which I hope we will consider in the coming weeks and months. The first is the bank levy. I know that this is not always a popular thing to say, but in politics it is sometimes important to say unpopular as well as popular things. When we have an internationally competitive sector, if the tax burdens of jurisdictions with which we are competing for people, for capital, for institutions or for new investment reach a point at which they are significantly, or even a little bit, less than ours—and people may find those jurisdictions attractive for other reasons—we should consider finding ways of reducing our own tax burden, which has risen in recent years. The bank levy was one of those, but it came during the aftermath of the financial crisis, which happened quite a long time ago. I think we should consider getting rid of it, in order to emphasise as much as we possibly can that Britain is still the leading centre of financial services for the world.
I am not saying that this is a panacea; far from it. The Bill contains 300-odd pages because we have a great deal to do. However, the bank levy is a tax, and if we impose high taxes on internationally mobile capital or institutions, there may well be a penalty for this country in terms of attracting those institutions. I ask the House, and in particular those on the Treasury Bench, to reflect on that point.
My second point concerns ringfencing, which the former Chancellor mentioned. When I was at HSBC—I probably should have declared at the beginning that I worked at HSBC before I came to the House, and indeed in other institutions in the City—I had the good fortune to work for quite a long time on the internal restructuring of the bank as part of a strategy of which ringfencing was a huge element. HSBC and Barclays were the two big British banks that had big consumer retail bits and big investment banking bits.
Even at that time, it was obvious to many of us that the most critical part of what we were doing in ensuring the safety of those institutions—and indeed, because they were so big, helping to ensure the safety of the whole financial services sector—was the recovery and resolution power, and not just the ringfencing aspect. While I think the review that has been carried out is very capable and very thorough, I urge the Treasury to look a bit further, and to ask whether we still need ringfencing even under the terms of the way in which it has been reviewed. Can we look again at the thresholds? Can we make this less onerous for big institutions?
Why should we do that? I return to what I said about competitiveness. If there are ways in which we can improve our competitiveness without compromising on safety, I think we should consider them.
Ian Paisley (North Antrim) (DUP)
Let me take the hon. Gentleman back to his earlier point about competitiveness, and the possibility of certain institutions being turned off from investing or establishing themselves, or removing themselves from the United Kingdom. Where does he think the single largest threat comes from, if there is a turn-off?
Bim Afolami
I would posit two particular jurisdictions. First, I think of the London stock exchange. The House may not fully appreciate the amount of capital that it has, through capital raising by means of initial public offerings and various other measures. However, we have seen a dramatic fall-off since even five years ago, let alone 10 years ago. Meanwhile, Amsterdam’s stock exchange is doing very well. I think that, although Amsterdam as a jurisdiction will never rival London or, I should say, the UK, because we have huge advantages and huge strengths, we need to consider the threat to the London stock exchange from that source.
Secondly, there is the middle east, where various jurisdictions, including some quite surprising ones—particularly Dubai—are trying hard to make themselves attractive to, in particular, capital from America and Asia, and to make themselves into a hub for some of this work. Again, they cannot rival us, but it is not necessary to match us fully to damage our competitiveness, and I think it important to bear that in mind.
Ian Paisley
Does the hon. Member think that that when it comes to those locations, especially the middle east, there may be an opportunity for, let us just say, funds to arrive at those destinations without being scrutinised to the same extent as they would be here in the United Kingdom? Is that a potential threat to the banking sector?
Bim Afolami
I do not want to cast aspersions on any other jurisdiction. It is clear that we should be proud of our own high standards. I know we will probably get to discussing illicit money from Russia later this year, as we did earlier in this Session. In this country we take action and we pride ourselves on our higher standards—that is not always the case everywhere—but that aspect of competitiveness is not a race to the bottom. This is a really important point. We can be competitive and have high standards. We should not say that the drive for competitiveness means that we drop our standards and end up with corruption, money-laundering and all the rest of it. That is not necessarily true. In this country we are proud of our institutions, proud of our sector and proud of our ecosystem, but that does not mean that nothing needs to improve, and this Bill contains a huge panoply of measures that can help to strengthen our financial services sector.
My last point is about mutual recognition agreements. These are quite dry technical things but ultimately they allow for the easing of doing business between one jurisdiction and another—for example, between the UK and Switzerland, with whom we have built a very good relationship. We should do much more of that, but we should work with the International Trade Department to ensure that our trade deals include much more in terms of services provision and not just mutual recognition agreements that are separate from that. Services trade will benefit this country more than pretty much any other country in the entire world, and we need to work with our International Trade Department, with the Foreign Office and with our international ambassadors to achieve that aim.
Oral Answers to Questions
Bim Afolami Excerpts(1 year, 10 months ago)
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Rishi Sunak
Again, 70% of workers in this country will have a net tax cut. That is what the Government are delivering. In just a couple of weeks’ time, the first £12,500 that anyone in work earns will be free of any tax or national insurance. That will deliver a £6 billion tax cut for 30 million people. As I said, for 70% of all workers, excluding the most wealthy, it represents a net tax cut, because we are on the side of hard-working people.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
The Chancellor knows that a significant part of inflation is not within this Government’s control, and indeed not within the country’s control; it is a result of international energy costs, particularly oil and gas. That is happening globally because there is an imbalance between supply and demand across the world. What is the Treasury’s approach, working with other countries and major energy companies, to try to bring down those prices overall in the coming years? Unless we do that, increasing energy costs will be inimical to the economic growth that everybody in this House wants to see.
Rishi Sunak
My hon. Friend makes a thoughtful point, and he is right. As the Bank of England recently pointed out, the bulk of the excess inflation that we are seeing is being driven by global inflationary forces. He is also right that in the long term, the best way to combat that is to increase the supply of energy. In particular, the Prime Minister’s energy security strategy sets out a plan to do exactly that, which will have an impact on bills next year and beyond. Between now and then, we have the support in place to help people.
UK Gross Domestic Product
Bim Afolami Excerpts(1 year, 11 months ago)
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John Glen
No, I do not. I accept that that was a challenging period for economies everywhere. There was a period of adjustment, and the Government will be working in a co-ordinated fashion to remove any frictions and to ease the passage of trade, particularly for smaller businesses.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
Much of the discussion in the House today has been about the fiscal aspects of inflation, but a huge part of the rise in inflation in this country and across the western world is the monetary system, in particular quantitative easing, which has continued long beyond the financial crisis, when it was put in place. We all know the Bank of England is independent in setting interest rates, but what is the Treasury’s view on working with the Bank of England to bring down inflation, bearing in mind the significant impact that quantitative easing has had on that? Will the Minister say a bit more about that?